"I like capitalism, except when the capitalists behave like capitalists."

And do you forget the Satanic Panic of the nineties? The controversy surrounding Robert Mappelthorpe? Flag burning? Marilyn Manson, a cause near and dear to my heart? It's not "the Left" with a speech problem.

Eric, do you think that we're in for an especially long Crisis-Unraveling?

Originally Posted by Debol1990

luckily people still respect freedoms enough to not call for outright legal controls on speech but I personally believe people should be able to say whatever they eat regaurd less of it benign hurtful or hatful, Personally I find "hate speech". Laws to be laughably undenocratif and a massive intrusion on human rights.

id prefer if our society didn't try to shut out "speech". Through voluntary censorship like not selling items, although that is their right to do as well, I just wish the business owners had more respect for free speech.

you don't have a "right" to not be offended or hated despite what many on the left believe.

Those are good points.

i have a right to hate you and say mean stuff about you, it's not nice or polite, but as long as I don't do anything to harm your civil liberties/physically harm you or cause you damages, it shouldn't be illegal.

What the Left has done is not to outlaw hate speech, although political correctness rules exist on campuses and corporations, etc. But what has been done is to add penalities if a violent crime is accompanied by "hate."

Goddammit, Eric, focus, man! This is relevant!

Do you foresee an unusually long Crisis-Unraveling? I think we all agree that there was a mood shift last year, beginning with the government shut down and being greatly exacerbated by the mid-term results, which correlate with a micro-Third Turning.

According to your system, the Climax will not arrive until '27. But this almost definitely requires that the micro-Third Turning be the longest micro-Turning of the Crisis: almost a full third of its duration, in fact.

If so, it would suggest something qualitatively different from the last several Fourth Turnings, none of which had especially long micro-Unravelings.

Originally Posted by Einzige

Eric, do you think that we're in for an especially long Crisis-Unraveling?

According to MY dates (not Chas'). I see the dates iirc as these:

2008-2012: Crisis-Crisis (I follow the astrological convention of starting micro-periods with the same type as the macro) (outbreak of the Crisis; it would have been worse than 1929-1933, except for what we had learned from 1929-1933).
2012-2017: Crisis-High (Indian Autumn, much like "happy days are here again" after the first New Deal programs were passed and a mini-recovery began, or the prosperous lull in the early/mid 1850s before the civil war revved up).
2017-2024: Crisis-Awakening (I see increasing political activity, and potentially a mini-renaissance at the end. So that would be the longest one; yes about 1/3 of the total; but see note below).
2024-2028: Crisis-Unravelling (the crisis-climax, like Civil War/World War II).

I'm not sure though, the crisis-climax could also be dated as starting 2022, but it won't be in high gear until 2024 or 2025. And there definitely won't be a USA foreign ground-troop intervention until then. But things will definitely be "unravelling."

So you didn't pick up the mood change in 2014? It was definitely there, subtle at first but now omnipresent. We're far more cynical today than in 2011 or 2012.

I mean, we can call these things whatever you want, the name itself doesn't matter. But a third turning (not, necessarily, a Third Turning, in deference to you) definitely began last year.

Originally Posted by Einzige

Goddammit, Eric, focus, man! This is relevant!

Do you foresee an unusually long Crisis-Unraveling? I think we all agree that there was a mood shift last year, beginning with the government shut down and being greatly exacerbated by the mid-term results, which correlate with a micro-Third Turning.

According to your system, the Climax will not arrive until '27. But this almost definitely requires that the micro-Third Turning be the longest micro-Turning of the Crisis: almost a full third of its duration, in fact.

If so, it would suggest something qualitatively different from the last several Fourth Turnings, none of which had especially long micro-Unravelings.

I'm definitely not Eric...

That said, if you're looking for a micro-unraveling to last until 2022 there is one piece of evidence for that. That will be the next election when redistricting will occur and in that time there may or may not have been efforts put forth in states to undo partisan gerrymandering (which currently favor Republicans VERY heavily). It's not out of the realm of possibilities that we're stuck with this do-nothing Congress until that time. Perhaps when that new Congress comes in, that's when the dam bursts and all kinds of possible solutions to the problems of ineffective government are thrown into the mix (just a broad theory that obviously excludes many economic and international factors).

There's a cultural argument to buttress the idea that we're in a micro-Unraveling: the 1990s, and especially the mid-90s, are the focus of cultural nostalgia at the moment, from Jurassic World and Terminator to the revival of flat-top haircuts for African-American men. The fact that a Clinton is leading the polls is another indicator.

Originally Posted by Einzige

Goddammit, Eric, focus, man! This is relevant!

Do you foresee an unusually long Crisis-Unraveling? I think we all agree that there was a mood shift last year, beginning with the government shut down and being greatly exacerbated by the mid-term results, which correlate with a micro-Third Turning.

According to your system, the Climax will not arrive until '27. But this almost definitely requires that the micro-Third Turning be the longest micro-Turning of the Crisis: almost a full third of its duration, in fact.

If so, it would suggest something qualitatively different from the last several Fourth Turnings, none of which had especially long micro-Unravelings.

As a Federal worker who was "shut down" for 17 days, I might add that the shutdown happened in October 2013, not in 2014.

Originally Posted by The Wonkette

As a Federal worker who was "shut down" for 17 days, I might add that the shutdown happened in October 2013, not in 2014.

Point taken. I was confusing it with the Obamacare rollout.

Still, the point stands. Everything feels flaky and false. It feels like an Unraveling within a Crisis.

Originally Posted by Einzige

So you didn't pick up the mood change in 2014? It was definitely there, subtle at first but now omnipresent. We're far more cynical today than in 2011 or 2012.

No, I don't pick up on that.

I mean, we can call these things whatever you want, the name itself doesn't matter. But a third turning (not, necessarily, a Third Turning, in deference to you) definitely began last year.

Don't see it. We're still in Indian Autumn, a Crisis-High. I don't see anything "unravelling" anywhere near what's going to unravel in the 2020s!

The election of Nov. 2014 was just Nov. 2010 part 2. The only thing to be taken from it, is that millennials haven't learned how important it is to vote in midterms and congressional/state elections. So, that was their decision; they either learn from their mistake, or they don't. But I don't see any change of mood in that behavior, which was also exhibited in 2012 and 2010.

Shut-downs also began in 2011; nothing new there one iota. It's just part of the mood of a crisis-high; suspension of action to meet the Crisis; not much more being done about it, because a mild recovery is happening. That's the pattern. It's definitely the second phase we're in, not the third. A third phase would not begin so close to the start of the turning in 2008.

Originally Posted by Einzige

Point taken. I was confusing it with the Obamacare rollout.

Still, the point stands. Everything feels flaky and false. It feels like an Unraveling within a Crisis.

But Highs are flaky and false too.

Originally Posted by Debol1990

Quoting my own post to reinforce the "new age puritanism" Confederate flag being taken out of stores for social concerns without government intervention and now plenty of companies dropping Donald Trump Products after his "controversial" comments about Mexico.

I think Im beginning to understand the crappy part of 1t's.....lack of individualism indeed.

To be honest, nowadays when I hear people ranting about "free speech" the people invoking it are almost always bullies and bigots whining that people are criticizing them. Look at the "Gamer-Gate" BS, it's all a bunch of misogynistic losers who think a Feminist criticizing sexism and misogyny in video games is somehow censorship. As a society we have become a bunch of self-absorbed twits who equate criticism with censorship and this crap needs to be cracked down on, hard.

And I do think I am becoming more and more authoritarian about this sort of nonsense.

Originally Posted by Odin

To be honest, nowadays when I hear people ranting about "free speech" the people invoking it are almost always bullies and bigots whining that people are criticizing them. Look at the "Gamer-Gate" BS, it's all a bunch of misogynistic losers who think a Feminist criticizing sexism and misogyny in video games is somehow censorship. As a society we have become a bunch of self-absorbed twits who equate criticism with censorship and this crap needs to be cracked down on, hard.

And I do think I am becoming more and more authoritarian about this sort of nonsense.

Thats an extremely dangerous sentimate to hold. Who decides who is a biggot and who isn't? Too much room for abuse. Racists should be able to shout there racist thoughts if they want, don't expect other citizens to be okay with it but it should be legal. Wouldn't you rather know the racists and people you disagree with?

Limitations on free speech is a common opinion in 1t's and 4ts though so I guess it's not surprising

Originally Posted by Debol1990

Thats an extremely dangerous sentimate to hold. Who decides who is a biggot and who isn't? Too much room for abuse. Racists should be able to shout there racist thoughts if they want, don't expect other citizens to be okay with it but it should be legal. Wouldn't you rather know the racists and people you disagree with?

Limitations on free speech is a common opinion in 1t's and 4ts though so I guess it's not surprising

I draw the line when the people are trying to justify and apologize for harassment and hate crimes.

Originally Posted by Einzige

Point taken. I was confusing it with the Obamacare rollout.

Still, the point stands. Everything feels flaky and false. It feels like an Unraveling within a Crisis.

The way I see it is that all the sound and fury that went into the shutdown and ended with nothing... and then there was just a few months of blah in its aftermath, as though the entire country was taking a sigh of relief. Come January the new mood was noticeable to me. I was walking out in the snow late at night in 2014 to fetch the mail and put out the trash, listening to some NPR I'd downloaded on the iPod, and I was thinking on how different things felt, how nothing seemed the same as 2011 or so, and suddenly it hit me...

~Chas'88

Originally Posted by Einzige

Point taken. I was confusing it with the Obamacare rollout.

Still, the point stands. Everything feels flaky and false. It feels like an Unraveling within a Crisis.

Yep, its a very dangerous period same thing happened in the US and Europe just before WWII. Things have been shitty for nearly a decade some wild new political theories and efforts have been made, we have managed to find some equilibrium in the new era and as a society we begin to "ostrich"

The middle east collapsing in on itself and ISIS?
Russia?
China?
The Economy still stagnant?

"not my problem I have got my life on track, im in a good stable spot, not dealing with this" The problems are all there, we have recognized them, we tried and failed to fix them.

The next step comes once there is a feeling that we "have to" fix the problems, human nature doesn't allow us to address the problems until we absolutely must.

Originally Posted by Debol1990

The middle east collapsing in on itself and ISIS?
Russia?
China?....

....The next step comes once there is a feeling that we "have to" fix the problems

God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I can not change
The courage to change the things I can
And the wisdom to know the difference.

Originally Posted by Chas'88

The "not our problem" answer has been our go-to answer since the crisis-awakening grew stale and tired with the Government Shutdown drama being the last gasp of it IMO. That mood shift was rather... well, obvious--so well obvious I took note of it at the time in real life.

For the second turning in a row, a micro-unraveling has been started by a Government Shutdown, as the fervor of the micro-awakening dies down and people separate out into different camps which all say "not my problem" or "doesn't affect me". Another period of stasis, but this isn't one where there's any kind of consensus as groups of people "drift apart".

Also notice how clean our pop culture is getting. Just like what happened in the 1930s, only on a little prolonged manner we had a little longer "naughty" culture period than the 1930s. Same thing happened in the 1690s as Restoration Comedy turned into Sentimental Comedy (slowly). Now we're starting to see the clean up of our popular culture, although I will say we're still in the early stages of it.

Also, surprise of surprises, this clean up is coming from the Left and not the Right, and is doing so under the name and stamp of Feminism, which is beginning to transform into a new kind of Neo-Puritanism.

What do I mean by that? Playboy is beginning to cover their models up. Public backlash against depictions of violence. And while there might be more guns in films, there's less gun violence and blood splatter in them now--ditto for nudity which is beginning to turn the bend (to tie it to the "Playboy is covering back up" comment).

Political Correctness has become Neo-Puritanism and we're beginning to see the early stages of a culture that values what is not seen vs seeing the whole enchilada. People are tired of having it all "laid out" in front of them and are beginning to request for discretion once again.

Fits with Northrop Frye's theory of Satire, that Satire rubs our noses so much in the dirty and disgusting to the point that we grow tired of it and are reminded of the morals we'd forgotten we had. A favorite tactic of Xer artistic minds I've been noticing more and more. Overindulge the consumers on something until they've grown tired of it and demand that it be forgotten.

And the ironic thing is that it's the Left who is leading this cleaning up of popular culture. Let me just say, no matter who won the culture argument in this 4T, either side would have led a clean-up of popular culture. Millennials and Xers are getting exhausted with "frank and dirty" popular culture. The Left and the Right just would have led such a clean-up for different reasons. The left is doing so with the PC stamp of approval. The right would have done so with a more overt Christian stamp of approval most likely. The clean up would have been done for different reasons, but the cleaning up would have occurred no matter what.

So now we wait in this period until the Micro-Crisis will come and sudden sweeping change will begin again. When the Micro-Crisis ends and a new stasis is reached we've arrived at the end.

Everyone breathe, the Millennial Saeculum is almost over, the end is almost here, and a new Saeculum awaits just around the corner.

My rough estimate still remains 2024 - 2026 for the end date of this Crisis and this saeculum, with me leaning more towards 2024 than 2026.

~Chas'88

Micro-Turning Dates (since 2000) & Forecast:

1995 - 2001 = Unraveling-unraveling

2001 - 2005 = Unraveling-crisis

2005 - 2009 = Crisis-high

2009 - 2014 = Crisis-awakening

2014 - 2019? = Crisis-unraveling

2019? - 2024 = Crisis-crisis

Hey Chas can you breakdown your observations in culture shifts like you did (my god 5 years ago) when you posted your theory? what about 2005-2009 makes it a "crisis High"?

I think the Crisis Awakening and Crisis Unraveling are pretty obvious but I see Obamas election as the middle of our Crisis Awakening considering that a president like Obama winning in 2000 would have been laughable.

Given the events of the past few months I think we're still in a micro-awakening, the rise of Trump and Sanders seems much more like an awakening than an unraveling. I guess it will depend on if they fizzle out out or not.

Originally Posted by Dan '82

Given the events of the past few months I think we're still in a micro-awakening, the rise of Trump and Sanders seems much more like an awakening than an unraveling. I guess it will depend on if they fizzle out out or not.

Trump is playing off what the Tea Party started and Bernie is playing off what the Occupy started, so I disagree.

Trump is the unraveling of the electoral system. It's making a joke out of the establishment. Trump was a huge man of the last 3T and he is the man of this micro 3T!

Originally Posted by millennialX

Trump is playing off what the Tea Party started and Bernie is playing off what the Occupy started, so I disagree.

Trump is the unraveling of the electoral system. It's making a joke out of the establishment. Trump was a huge man of the last 3T and he is the man of this micro 3T!

This^

Trump and Sanders aren't bringing anything "new" to the equation they are the outgrowths of movements born in our Micro-awakening(which I place between 2006-2011).

The popular republican and democratic opinions/positions today have shifted drastically from the 1990's and early 2000's. That shift occurred during the political movements which ban during the latter days of the Bush administration.

Mainly the parties swung less "centrist" and more "extreme". The democrats have been pushing far more socialist policies in the style of Europe, evident by Obama's election and OWS. The republicans have moved away from the Neo-con and social conservative stances to more libertarian and isolationist views (tea party, the Pauls etc.).

This is why the republicans are so confused about Romney losing in 2012 and why democrats and republicans are confused about their current primaries. The base doesn't want centrist compromising politicians anymore, they want decisive and stern politicians. a Crisis isn't a time of compromise!

One side must win, the other must lose. Or we don't stay together as a nation for much longer. At this point in time id say it's 50/50 on how it will turn out.

Social-Democratic, not Socialist, they are not the same thing.

Originally Posted by Odin

Social-Democratic, not Socialist, they are not the same thing.

"more socialist policies in the style of Europe" I don't think my description is inaccurate.

Originally Posted by Debol1990

... Trump and Sanders aren't bringing anything "new" to the equation they are the outgrowths of movements born in our Micro-awakening(which I place between 2006-2011).

The popular republican and democratic opinions/positions today have shifted drastically from the 1990's and early 2000's. That shift occurred during the political movements which ban during the latter days of the Bush administration.

Mainly the parties swung less "centrist" and more "extreme". The democrats have been pushing far more socialist policies in the style of Europe, evident by Obama's election and OWS. The republicans have moved away from the Neo-con and social conservative stances to more libertarian and isolationist views (tea party, the Pauls etc.).

This is why the republicans are so confused about Romney losing in 2012 and why democrats and republicans are confused about their current primaries. The base doesn't want centrist compromising politicians anymore, they want decisive and stern politicians. a Crisis isn't a time of compromise!

One side must win, the other must lose. Or we don't stay together as a nation for much longer. At this point in time id say it's 50/50 on how it will turn out.

True, and not. Yes, the electorate wants decisive action, but the two sides are still too balanced to make that possible. I'm sure we can pick a new POTUS, but so what? Unless it's a RW Republican, and Congress stays as-is, there will be next to nothing that gets done. Even then, the window will be two years, just like first half of Obama's first term.

Until that changes, the muddle will continue unabated.