So, Greece is in a massive fiscal crisis with it's roots in a culture of tax evasion and bankster manipulation, and is having Disaster Capitalist "Austerity" measures forced upon it. The Greeks are on the streets, furious at the cuts. It looks like this might spread to Italy, Spain, and Portugal.

Greece be 4T

Originally Posted by Odin

So, Greece is in a massive fiscal crisis with it's roots in a culture of tax evasion and bankster manipulation, and is having Disaster Capitalist "Austerity" measures forced upon it. The Greeks are on the streets, furious at the cuts. It looks like this might spread to Italy, Spain, and Portugal.

Greece be 4T

This is more than Greece. It is the French banks that hold most of the CDO's and other Greek credit paper. If Greece defaults they will go bankrupt. Other nations are right behind Greece too. The fight over culture is beginning in each country (e.g. France's desire to outlaw full head covering for women). The European Common Market is at risk.

IMO Europe is 4T.

Originally Posted by Silent39

Originally Posted by Odin

So, Greece is in a massive fiscal crisis with it's roots in a culture of tax evasion and bankster manipulation, and is having Disaster Capitalist "Austerity" measures forced upon it. The Greeks are on the streets, furious at the cuts. It looks like this might spread to Italy, Spain, and Portugal.

Greece be 4T

This is more than Greece. It is the French banks that hold most of the CDO's and other Greek credit paper. If Greece defaults they will go bankrupt. Other nations are right behind Greece too. The fight over culture is beginning in each country (e.g. France's desire to outlaw full head covering for women). The European Common Market is at risk.

IMO Europe is 4T.

Paul Krugman thinks that things may have gotten bad enough that the argument against the weaker economies leaving the Euro may no longer be valid. If these countries can escape to their old currencies, they can devalue and save themselves. The collateral damage to financial markets - especially banks - seems likely in either case. I guess some good is better than none.

Originally Posted by Odin

So, Greece is in a massive fiscal crisis with it's roots in a culture of tax evasion and bankster manipulation, and is having Disaster Capitalist "Austerity" measures forced upon it. The Greeks are on the streets, furious at the cuts. It looks like this might spread to Italy, Spain, and Portugal.

Greece be 4T

An out of control entitlement, pension system and the world will be bankrolling the debts. Perhaps an entitlement society isn't what we should strive for in this country. Our model and the European model is not sustainable.

Originally Posted by Odin

So, Greece is in a massive fiscal crisis with it's roots in a culture of tax evasion and bankster manipulation, and is having Disaster Capitalist "Austerity" measures forced upon it. The Greeks are on the streets, furious at the cuts. It looks like this might spread to Italy, Spain, and Portugal.

Greece be 4T

Actually the UK is in even worse shape:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...se-than-greece

Additionally the uncertainty saw England elect a Parliment that will probably be unable to work together enough to make the hard choices that need to be made.

The European banking system is about to collapse and thanks to the genius of globalization this will likely swing back around to hit us. Get ready for recession part II folks.

It will get even better once China's bubble bursts.

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

Paul Krugman thinks that things may have gotten bad enough that the argument against the weaker economies leaving the Euro may no longer be valid. If these countries can escape to their old currencies, they can devalue and save themselves. The collateral damage to financial markets - especially banks - seems likely in either case. I guess some good is better than none.

The first EU country who defaults first, stops the economic crisis in the EU from becoming a worldwide economic crisis.

Originally Posted by wtrg8

An out of control entitlement, pension system and the world will be bankrolling the debts. Perhaps an entitlement society isn't what we should strive for in this country. Our model and the European model is not sustainable.

One effect of a 4T could be to push economically-tormented societies from "entitlement" societies to "responsibility" societies -- that governments end up with fewer responsibilities toward people and people have more responsibilities toward themselves. It may tell people through tax policies that they have the responsibility to create their own opportunities instead of relying upon employers to offer jobs that pay living wages. The alternatives could be even starker -- peonage or serfdom of workers to private employers, or a proletarian revolution. Such could have tax assessments with few exemptions (like military service) associated with mere existence in the society. That is the cheapest way in which to operate a society -- and a harsh one that few want.

Basically the command of society could be "get a pushcart and become a street vendor", which in some respects is better than being a serf, peon, or beggar. Pensioner? Forget it! You will have to invest something like private, for-profit insurance with an annuitized payout.

Industrial jobs are going to the places with the cheapest labor. It won't be long before China and in turn India have the largest shares of industrial activity as employment; that will go to countries now the very poorest -- typically in Africa.

Originally Posted by pbrower2a

One effect of a 4T could be to push economically-tormented societies from "entitlement" societies to "responsibility" societies -- that governments end up with fewer responsibilities toward people and people have more responsibilities toward themselves. It may tell people through tax policies that they have the responsibility to create their own opportunities instead of relying upon employers to offer jobs that pay living wages. The alternatives could be even starker -- peonage or serfdom of workers to private employers, or a proletarian revolution. Such could have tax assessments with few exemptions (like military service) associated with mere existence in the society. That is the cheapest way in which to operate a society -- and a harsh one that few want.

Basically the command of society could be "get a pushcart and become a street vendor", which in some respects is better than being a serf, peon, or beggar. Pensioner? Forget it! You will have to invest something like private, for-profit insurance with an annuitized payout.

Industrial jobs are going to the places with the cheapest labor. It won't be long before China and in turn India have the largest shares of industrial activity as employment; that will go to countries now the very poorest -- typically in Africa.

Before you get too gloomy, the employment report that came out this morning had some good news on manufacturing.

WSJ:

"Beyond government jobs, the report showed that the private sector created 231,000 jobs. Manufacturing continued to trend up, rising by 44,000. The industry, which is leading the economy's recovery, has added 101,000 jobs since December. Construction, a sector that has been suffering, added 14,000 jobs in April."

Industrial jobs will go to the place where labor is the most productive not necessarily the cheapest. We continue to have the most productive labor force in the world.

James50

Originally Posted by wtrg8

An out of control entitlement, pension system and the world will be bankrolling the debts. Perhaps an entitlement society isn't what we should strive for in this country. Our model and the European model is not sustainable.

If you look with a cynical enough eye, nothing is sustainable. Moving from cynical to merely skeptical, you find that the programs with serious issues are the ones enacted with too much hype and/or solely for political reasons. The obvious solution is to avoid either of those situations.

Several qualify as "disasters in progress". The worst by far is the open-ended Medicare Part-D program that was created with absolutely no identified funding source at all. The Reagan-Bush tax cuts are also problematic, since they were never intended to end ... legal puffery to the contrary. Fighting two open-ended wars without raising taxes is another, simply due to the magnitude of the endeavors and the ongoing cost of veteran care and military refitment that goes with years and years of fighting.

Those are the worst, with the huge financial recovery program certainly in there too. The healthcare program could and should be a lot better, but even in its current form it's a net saver of money. Do you have any others?

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

If you look with a cynical enough eye, nothing is sustainable. Moving from cynical to merely skeptical, you find that the programs with serious issues are the ones enacted with too much hype and/or solely for political reasons. The obvious solution is to avoid either of those situations.

Several qualify as "disasters in progress". The worst by far is the open-ended Medicare Part-D program that was created with absolutely no identified funding source at all. The Reagan-Bush tax cuts are also problematic, since they were never intended to end ... legal puffery to the contrary. Fighting two open-ended wars without raising taxes is another, simply due to the magnitude of the endeavors and the ongoing cost of veteran care and military refitment that goes with years and years of fighting.

Those are the worst, with the huge financial recovery program certainly in there too. The healthcare program could and should be a lot better, but even in its current form it's a net saver of money. Do you have any others?

The Bush tax cuts are being allowed to end this year and will return to Clinton era tax rates. Senator Reid has decided to forgo any tax increase measures since its an election year. Its the Democrats who haven't made any moves in bringing Obama's budget online.

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

If you look with a cynical enough eye, nothing is sustainable. Moving from cynical to merely skeptical, you find that the programs with serious issues are the ones enacted with too much hype and/or solely for political reasons. The obvious solution is to avoid either of those situations.

Several qualify as "disasters in progress". The worst by far is the open-ended Medicare Part-D program that was created with absolutely no identified funding source at all. The Reagan-Bush tax cuts are also problematic, since they were never intended to end ... legal puffery to the contrary. Fighting two open-ended wars without raising taxes is another, simply due to the magnitude of the endeavors and the ongoing cost of veteran care and military refitment that goes with years and years of fighting.

Those are the worst, with the huge financial recovery program certainly in there too. The healthcare program could and should be a lot better, but even in its current form it's a net saver of money. Do you have any others?

Well said! You beat me to it.

Originally Posted by James50

Before you get too gloomy, the employment report that came out this morning had some good news on manufacturing.

... Industrial jobs will go to the place where labor is the most productive not necessarily the cheapest. We continue to have the most productive labor force in the world.

James50

We have powerful competitors that play by rules of heir own. Yes, we are highly productive, but any gains can be wiped away with a little currency manipulation. That's why everything is made in Asia. All Asian economies have been unrepentant mercantilists since they industrialized. I don't see that changing, frankly. The Chinese have actually argued that we destroyed Japan by forcing a currency revaluation, when they were doing then exactly what the Chinese are doing today.

Originally Posted by wtrg8

The Bush tax cuts are being allowed to end this year and will return to Clinton era tax rates. Senator Reid has decided to forgo any tax increase measures since its an election year. Its the Democrats who haven't made any moves in bringing Obama's budget online.

This is good though not good enough. We need to look back prior to the Reagan tax cuts and decide if that is a better model ... adjusted for inflation and economic changes of course.

This was a stupid idea in any case, so the fact that they finally realized that too much openness is an invitation to a beating, is belated at best.

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

This is good though not good enough. We need to look back prior to the Reagan tax cuts and decide if that is a better model ... adjusted for inflation and economic changes of course.

This was a stupid idea in any case, so the fact that they finally realized that too much openness is an invitation to a beating, is belated at best.

This is going to hurt me more, but President Clinton had the right budget model. Too bad the Democratic Congress isn't listening to reason.

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

We have powerful competitors that play by rules of heir own. Yes, we are highly productive, but any gains can be wiped away with a little currency manipulation. That's why everything is made in Asia. All Asian economies have been unrepentant mercantilists since they industrialized. I don't see that changing, frankly. The Chinese have actually argued that we destroyed Japan by forcing a currency revaluation, when they were doing then exactly what the Chinese are doing today.

The value of the total Chinese economy is about the same as the state of California. India's GDP about the size of Texas'.

And this:

"In 2008, U.S. manufacturing output was $1.8 trillion, compared to $1.4 trillion in China (UN data. China’s data do not separate manufacturing from mining and utilities. So the actual Chinese manufacturing number should be much smaller).

Contrary to the conventional view, manufacturing in the U. S. has been growing in the past two decades despite the decline in manufacturing jobs."


Myth of China's Manufacturing Prowess: http://bit.ly/cjtPMS


James50

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

This is good though not good enough. We need to look back prior to the Reagan tax cuts and decide if that is a better model ... adjusted for inflation and economic changes of course.

Reagan and Bush promoted tax schedule cuts. It was based upon supply side economics. Most exonomists acknowledged the theory is discreditied based upon the Regan and Bush experiences. The economy was not overly positive during those two periods. Also, the sovereign debt increased dramatically as offsetting expenditures never materialize. Both President presided over larger increases in federal government employees. Clinton's approach (Rubin) along with a more positive economy worked better and actually reduced the debt. His personal issues hide the budget accomplishments. DShort.com has the graphs and tables for this.

Originally Posted by wtrg8

An out of control entitlement, pension system and the world will be bankrolling the debts. Perhaps an entitlement society isn't what we should strive for in this country. Our model and the European model is not sustainable.

RIIIGHT, rich people evading taxes has nothing to do with it. Your reasoning is exactly what the Disaster Capitalists WANT you to think, blame the victim and say that the little people "deserve" the economic pain while the Rich get richer.

And if Obama keeps sucking up to the banksters this is comming to the US. I hope you Right-Wingers like living in a 3rd-World banana republic.

Originally Posted by 85turtle

The first EU country who defaults first, stops the economic crisis in the EU from becoming a worldwide economic crisis.

I am not sure the experts agree with you. PIMCO is one of the largest bond investment houses in the US.

El-Erian: Europe's Critical Weekend
by CalculatedRisk on 5/08/2010 05:17:00 PM

While we wait for the details ...


PIMCO's Mohamed El-Erian writes in the Financial Times: El-Erian on a critical weekend for Europe and the economy

[W]e have to wait for tomorrow’s operational details. ... [But] we should not under-estimate the historical relevance of what is happening this weekend; and the stakes for Europe and the global economy are huge.

If this rescue attempt does not work, there will be a material acceleration in the process of change to Europe’s economic, financial, and institutional landscape; and the reality of the debt explosion in industrial economies will become even more of a destabilizing factor for the world economy.

Tomorrow will be interesting!

Source: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/05/el-erian-europes-critical-weekend.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed &utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculated +Risk%29

Originally Posted by Silent39

I am not sure the experts agree with you.

These gamblers brought us another Depression with 1920's economic policies on steroids with the Washington Consensus (1980 - 2008). I will never trust MBA's that run Wall Street and the London Stock Exchange ever again.

Maybe all of these financial or economics graduates should be required to learn about history and politics. Rather than studying voodoo economics that have failed twice with miserable effects on society.

Originally Posted by Odin

So, Greece is in a massive fiscal crisis with it's roots in a culture of tax evasion and bankster manipulation, and is having Disaster Capitalist "Austerity" measures forced upon it. The Greeks are on the streets, furious at the cuts. It looks like this might spread to Italy, Spain, and Portugal.

Greece be 4T

Originally Posted by Silent39

This is more than Greece. It is the French banks that hold most of the CDO's and other Greek credit paper. If Greece defaults they will go bankrupt. Other nations are right behind Greece too. The fight over culture is beginning in each country (e.g. France's desire to outlaw full head covering for women). The European Common Market is at risk.

IMO Europe is 4T.

Originally Posted by Copperfield

Actually the UK is in even worse shape:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...se-than-greece

Additionally the uncertainty saw England elect a Parliment that will probably be unable to work together enough to make the hard choices that need to be made.

The European banking system is about to collapse and thanks to the genius of globalization this will likely swing back around to hit us. Get ready for recession part II folks.

It will get even better once China's bubble bursts.

Originally Posted by Odin

RIIIGHT, rich people evading taxes has nothing to do with it. Your reasoning is exactly what the Disaster Capitalists WANT you to think, blame the victim and say that the little people "deserve" the economic pain while the Rich get richer.

And if Obama keeps sucking up to the banksters this is comming to the US. I hope you Right-Wingers like living in a 3rd-World banana republic.

So, if Europe goes will it bring us down, or will we be able to survive the collapse... and what about this Glass Stegall amendment that Cantwell and McCain and Feingold are backing? What are your thoughts on the efficacy of that? What will happen to the markets and the banks in the face of all this instability? I am particularly concerned about the lack of leadership from Obama (and his fabulous team of Summers-Geitner et al) on these matters.

On the bright side, I am starting to see glimmers of courage from some members of the congress. The media, as usual, remains clueless. Beyond clueless. I think my 20 year old nieces know more than the media. And that's a sad state of affairs.

However, in my general discussions with people I am noticing more and more of them are taking a range of actions within their own communities, places of employment, and personal life decisions that indicate they have decided they have no choice but to get involved at whatever level they can to "make things work" again. I am feeling oddly hopeful because I am seeing so much increased team work. Where I work our boss basically was sacked, and we are now running ourselves. It was a bit of a stumble and shock at first, but it is just amazingly terrific now. To see people who were so detached and narcissistic rise up and work together to take on new responsibilities with little ego and personal self interest is pretty stunning to me (since I know these people well and we have been bickering, backstabbing and ignoring each other for years!).

I am beginning to think the 4T's period of shock and denial is giving way to Jerry Garcia's insigtful comment.

Originally Posted by 85turtle

These gamblers brought us another Depression with 1920's economic policies on steroids with the Washington Consensus (1980 - 2008). I will never trust MBA's that run Wall Street and the London Stock Exchange ever again.

Maybe all of these financial or economics graduates should be required to learn about history and politics. Rather than studying voodoo economics that have failed twice with miserable effects on society.

Unfortunately the (approximate) dates for the Washington Consensus as you call it are 1980 - 2020 (the one-term Obama presidency representing only a temporary interruption).

Originally Posted by 85turtle

These gamblers brought us another Depression with 1920's economic policies on steroids with the Washington Consensus (1980 - 2008). I will never trust MBA's that run Wall Street and the London Stock Exchange ever again.

Maybe all of these financial or economics graduates should be required to learn about history and politics. Rather than studying voodoo economics that have failed twice with miserable effects on society.

I don't trust them either. That is why the US had "rules of the road" in place until politicians removed them. Greed and the loss of ethics got in the way of the financial types. Right now the big financial firms investment "bets" on Greece and other ECM nations are winning big time. The politicians have failed their citizens far worse. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/smo...ndreous-career

The economists have failed as bad as the politicians. They provided the "logic" to rationalize the political moves. Soon we will have the answers to the ECU. I hope the new ECU stabilty programs work for them. That would minimize the impact on the rest of the world.

Originally Posted by Odin

RIIIGHT, rich people evading taxes has nothing to do with it. Your reasoning is exactly what the Disaster Capitalists WANT you to think, blame the victim and say that the little people "deserve" the economic pain while the Rich get richer.

And if Obama keeps sucking up to the banksters this is coming to the US. I hope you Right-Wingers like living in a 3rd-World banana republic.

I think both of us will be living in that system, if both parties keep it up. Time to audit the Federal Reserve and you haven't heard me complain about the new regulations that are being discussed in Congress.

Originally Posted by wtrg8

... Time to audit the Federal Reserve ...

To what end? Do you think they're handing out even more cash than they admit they are? If so, we may not want to know. It's scary enough already.

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

To what end? Do you think they're handing out even more cash than they admit they are? If so, we may not want to know. It's scary enough already.

I would rather know so I can vote out every politician who spends more than what is put back in. We have made available through the Federal Reserve, the bank loan program to Europe.

See website below, it can explain it better than I;

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=amiI5qIW8gDI

Its scary as hell!!