I saw a column in the New York Times last week showing how the Tea Party could be to the Republicans in 2012 the way the McGovernites were to the Democrats in 1972.Originally Posted by The Grey Badger
Last edited by Earl and Mooch; 08-24-2011 at 09:31 AM.
"My generation, we were the generation that was going to change the world: somehow we were going to make it a little less lonely, a little less hungry, a little more just place. But it seems that when that promise slipped through our hands we didn´t replace it with nothing but lost faith."
Bruce Springsteen, 1987
http://brucebase.wikispaces.com/1987...+YORK+CITY,+NY
I actually think it will be Rick Perry/Bob McDonnell (Governor of Virginia). Perry would be enough for the Tea Party, McDonnell would appeal to the more centrist parts of the part and independents, and help the GOP carry Virginia, a key battleground state.
In other news, my old home state continues to rot in the grip of far too much government...
http://www.illinoispolicy.org/news/a...cleSource=4362It’s too early to know conclusively the full impact of the tax hikes on the Illinois economy. Nevertheless, Illinois’s employment numbers serve as a good reminder that public policies have dramatic consequences for the daily lives of Illinoisans. A combination of high taxes, overspending and red tape do nothing but chase away job creators and leave too many citizens without jobs. Springfield needs to act now and reverse course.
"May have been the losing side. Still not convinced it was the wrong one."
Malcolm Reynolds
"I ran across a book recently which suggested that the peace and prosperity of a culture was solely related to how many librarians it contained. Possibly a slight overstatement. But a culture that doesn't value its librarians doesn't value ideas and without ideas, well, where are we?"
Lucien, Librarian of Dream (from The Sandman, issue 57 (1993) by Neil Gaiman)
Early-wave GenX
Have we ever had a governor/governor ticket before? I'm trying to think, but it seems every Presidential candidate (esp one who was a governor) has always picked someone from the beltway as VP.
Not to say I see a Perry/Bachman ticket, I don't. But if Perry is the nominee, it seems he would choose someone from the Senate, maybe John Thune?
Wouldn't surprise me. I suspect Romney is the candidate with the most appeal to independents and moderates in that race, and thus the greatest threat. I don't see Perry or Bachmann getting too much broad national support outside their base.
Alot of people are predicting a Perry/Rubio ticket to enhance the Hispanic vote.
Latest Gallup poll has Perry and Obama tied at 47% and Perry has hardly even campaigned yet.....
I'm not convinced that many of the folks outside of the South really know Rick Perry as we've seen him since, like, forever. I don't think he'll play well with social moderates outside the South once he's better known to the masses (I expect them to break strongly for Romney). And I also think that there's enough anti-incumbent sentiment as well as a new low in Obama's approval rating that is helping Perry (and all Republicans for that matter) in *current* polling data. Also, popular vote isn't a really good way to poll for the presidency given that it's the electoral votes that matter, and we've seen recently that you can still lose with a plurality of the popular vote (Gore in 2000, political debates about a "stolen election" notwithstanding).
Rick Perry would be the right-wing equivalent of Mike Dukakis -- someone offering an economic miracle that proves empty after some close scrutiny. Negative ads are just the ticket for going after someone who can easily be cast as an extremist. Perry wins the Tea Party types who now dominate the Reactionary Party, but that is about it.Maybe they're tied because Perry hasn't really campaigned yet?
It's going to be an interesting year-and-a-half.
Prince
If you thought that Willie Horton was bad for Mike Dukakis, then think about how the late Cameron Willingham, whom Rick Perry had rushed to execution:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cameron_WillinghamAn August 2009 Chicago Tribune investigative article concluded: "Over the past five years, the Willingham case has been reviewed by nine of the nation's top fire scientists—first for the Tribune, then for the Innocence Project, and now for the commission. All concluded that the original investigators relied on outdated theories and folklore to justify the determination of arson. The only other evidence of significance against Willingham was twice-recanted testimony by another inmate who testified that Willingham had confessed to him. Jailhouse snitches are viewed with skepticism in the justice system, so much so that some jurisdictions have restrictions against their use."
The Texas Forensic Science Commission was scheduled to discuss the report by Beyler at a meeting on October 2, 2009, but two days before the meeting Texas Governor Rick Perry replaced the chair of the commission and two other members. The new chair canceled the meeting—sparking accusations that Perry was interfering with the investigation and using it for his own political advantage.
Judicial errors happen. Courts occasionally go awry. The awkward attempt to exculpate the Governor for his role in the execution in which the Governor replaced members of the commission who might have ruled against him with those that would shut down the investigation demonstrates the character of this man as Governor. This man will not admit to errors of judgment even when those errors caused someone to die.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."
― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters
Well, as fate would have it, I think that unfortunately there are a lot of people who would rather see a wrongful execution than a murderer escape while on furlough. I literally had a woman tell me that people who are in prison wrongfully accused, "probably did something to deserve it." I'm not sure this hurts him with some of his base.
"May have been the losing side. Still not convinced it was the wrong one."
Malcolm Reynolds
"I ran across a book recently which suggested that the peace and prosperity of a culture was solely related to how many librarians it contained. Possibly a slight overstatement. But a culture that doesn't value its librarians doesn't value ideas and without ideas, well, where are we?"
Lucien, Librarian of Dream (from The Sandman, issue 57 (1993) by Neil Gaiman)
Early-wave GenX
Contempt for life is a gigantic fault of character. A cover-up for an error involving a wrongful death indicates a desire more to cover up a huge mistake instead of the willingness to learn from it. This may not be the worst about him. Someone capable of this certainly has other huge gaps of character that show him woefully inadequate for high office.
It is the people on the political margin that have more significance in electoral choices, and I can't speak on their behalf as I am not one of them.
Barack Obama has no Willie Horton or Cameron Willingham in his past. He can always show himself as "tough on crime" while showing some fairness.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."
― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters
Yep -- if they were innocent they wouldn't have been arrested. Hell, who needs the Bill of Rights anyway?
This is sad but true. We went through this recently when a convicted rapist was freed after a DNA test proved him innocent ... after 19 years in prison. There were letters to the editor of the local paper that declared that he should not have been freed for the very reason you cite. Scary.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.
People never imagine that it could happen to them or someone they care about ...
This polling data suggests that Bachmann is toast--Perry is already taking some of her support--and Perry is now a genuine favorite. The minor candidates' votes are much more likely to go to him than Romney.
David Kaiser '47
My blog: History Unfolding
My book: The Road to Dallas: The Assassination of John F. Kennedy
Bachmann killed her chances with her careless gaffes. One gaffe can even be funny, but they rolled out of her like a possessed ATM. The latest Elvis thing should have been enough to show her contempt for middle America. Perry seems to be riding the gaffe train as well so we will see if his "handlers" get him to knock it off.
Rick Perry, barring a major scandal or screw up will be the nominee. I guess attacking Perry is the only strategy in play as Obama has no record to run on. It will however fail completely without an economic recovery. Much like Bush in '92 this strategy seems almost never to work. Perry is the only candidate who can unite all the factions of the Repubs, Romney cant lockdown the conservatives and that will prevent him from beating Perry, unless Perry melts down. Bachman, Cain and Santorum will all be leaving the race and most of thier supporters will go to Perry. Any Palin supporters holding out will go to Perry. If Chris Christie were to enter it could throw the race open agaian but even then, i think Perry has the edge.
It doesn't matter how much of the Republican party Perry can unite, if he fails with independents Obama can still beat him. Even liberals that are disappointed with Obama won't be inclined to switch to Perry. It is hard to say how independents will go, so you may be right about him being vulnerable if Democrats stay at home on election day.
I know very conservative, very partisan Republicans that say that Perry scares them with his evangelical cowboy swagger. The savior of the 4T will not be a culture warrior, so we had better start looking to 2016 in hopes for a pivotal year for the 4T. It was too early for a fix for this mess anyway ...
Perry will need a complete makeover to have any chance of appealing to the country outside the old Confederacy. We forget how hard Bush tried to sound like a reasonable man in 2000. Even then, he couldn't win a plurality of the vote. And his whole career is a scandal, an incredible case of how a politician can feed business and be fed in return.
David Kaiser '47
My blog: History Unfolding
My book: The Road to Dallas: The Assassination of John F. Kennedy
True, 2000 was an anti-Clinton reaction and by 2004 people weren't terribly fired up about Kerry and didn't want to rock the boat wrt to the wars. I have my doubts that Obama is up to the whole mud-slinging thing though. He may surprise me since he can't exactly use "Hope and Change" again. Debates with Perry should be interesting if Obama brings his A-game ...
Wasn't that falsely convicted guy Black? I think there is definitely racism involved in those attitudes.
To recommend thrift to the poor is both grotesque and insulting. It is like advising a man who is starving to eat less.
-Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism
Perry is a Christo-Fascist lunatic who must be kept from the White House by any means possible. I would rather have Obama the corporate suck-up than Perry the lunatic.
To recommend thrift to the poor is both grotesque and insulting. It is like advising a man who is starving to eat less.
-Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism
Here is why Perry MUST never be allowed to be President:
The Evangelicals Engaged In Spiritual Warfare
These crazies are FRIGHTENING. They are nothing less than a Christian version of the Taliban. Not only do they have no place in public discourse, they are a threat to the republic and MUST BE STOPPED.An emerging Christian movement that seeks to take dominion over politics, business and culture in preparation for the end times and the return of Jesus, is becoming more of a presence in American politics. The leaders are considered apostles and prophets, gifted by God for this role.
The international "apostolic and prophetic" movement has been dubbed by its leading American architect, C. Peter Wagner, as the New Apostolic Reformation (NAR). Although the movement is larger than the network organized by Wagner — and not all members describe themselves as part of Wagner's NAR — the so-called apostles and prophets of the movement have identifiable ideology that separates them from other evangelicals.
The Ideology and History of the New Apostolic Reformation
Two ministries in the movement planned and orchestrated Texas Gov. Rick Perry's recent prayer rally, where apostles and prophets from around the nation spoke or appeared onstage. The event was patterned after The Call, held at locations around the globe and led by Lou Engle, who has served in the Apostolic Council of Prophetic Elders of the NAR. Other NAR apostles endorsed Perry's event, including two who lead a 50-state "prayer warrior" network. Thomas Muthee, the Kenyan pastor who anointed Sarah Palin at the Wasilla Assembly of God Church in 2005, while praying for Jesus to protect her from the spirit of witchcraft, is also part of this movement.
On Wednesday's Fresh Air, Rachel Tabachnick, who researches the political impact of the religious right, joins Terry Gross for a discussion about the growing movement and its influence and connections in the political world.
Tabachnick says the movement currently works with a variety of politicians and has a presence in all 50 states. It also has very strong opinions about the direction it wants the country to take. For the past several years, she says, the NAR has run a campaign to reclaim what it calls the "seven mountains of culture" from demonic influence. The "mountains" are arts and entertainment; business; family; government; media; religion; and education.
"They teach quite literally that these 'mountains' have fallen under the control of demonic influences in society," says Tabachnick. "And therefore, they must reclaim them for God in order to bring about the kingdom of God on Earth. ... The apostles teach what's called 'strategic level spiritual warfare' [because they believe that the] reason why there is sin and corruption and poverty on the Earth is because the Earth is controlled by a hierarchy of demons under the authority of Satan. So they teach not just evangelizing souls one by one, as we're accustomed to hearing about. They teach that they will go into a geographic region or a people group and conduct spiritual-warfare activities in order to remove the demons from the entire population. This is what they're doing that's quite fundamentally different than other evangelical groups."
Rick Perry's Rally
The organizers of Perry's rally were from ministries founded by two apostles/prophets of the movement — The Call, and the International House of Prayer founded by Mike Bickle. Bickle, who led part of Perry's event, has claimed that Oprah Winfrey is a precursor of the Antichrist, and Engle has claimed that gay people are controlled by "demonic spirits." Both have served on the Council of Prophetic Elders initiated by Wagner.
"Lou Engle [has spoken] at length about how one of his sons has started an International House of Prayer in the Castro district of San Francisco and that his son is now expelling demons from homosexuals, and supposedly then this cures them of their homosexuality," says Tabachnick. "He has also held [prayer rallies] around the world."
One of Engle's previous rallies took place in Uganda in May 2010, shortly after an anti-homosexuality bill had been proposed.
"Various people got on the stage [at his rally] and promoted the anti-homosexuality bill in Uganda, which is a very draconian bill that would allow for executions for certain offenses, and would also allow for people who don't report homosexual history to be jailed," she says. "The apostles have had a long history in Uganda, and some of them have had close relationships with both political and religious leaders there. In fact, an apostle in Uganda takes credit for promoting the anti-homosexuality bill and was recognized by the parliament in Uganda when the bill was introduced."
Engle has another rally planned in November in Detroit. The purpose of the prayer rally, says Tabachnick, is to "fight the demonic spirit of Islam."
"In other words, [they want] to conduct spiritual warfare against the spiritual demons which they claim hold Muslims in bondage and keep them from converting," she says. "Of course, this is expressed in terms of love. They say 'We don't hate Muslims. We love Muslims. But we hate that they are in spiritual bondage and don't convert to Christianity.' "
A 'Different' Evangelicalism
Tabachnick, who has been researching and writing about the apostles for a decade, says her own religious background has helped her with her research. She grew up as a Southern Baptist and converted to Judaism as an adult.
"Having the Southern Baptist background and growing up in the Deep South has helped me to be able to do this research and has also helped me realize something that might not be apparent to some other people looking at the movement," she says. "This is quite radically different than the evangelicalism of my youth. The things that we've been talking about are not representative of evangelicalism. They're not representative of conservative evangelicalism. So I think that's important to keep in mind. This is a movement that's growing in popularity, and one of the ways they've been able to do that [is because] they're not very identifiable to most people. They're just presented as nondenominational or just Christian — but it is an identifiable movement now with an identifiable ideology."
Interview Highlights
On the issues of the international "apostolic and prophetic" movement
"[Their issues are] anti-abortion, anti-gay rights — but they also have ... the belief that government should not be involved in social safety nets, that the country is becoming socialist, if not communist ... — all of what we've come to call 'Tea Party issues' of very small government. In the case of the apostles, they believe this because they believe that a large government that handles the safety net is taking away what is the domain of the church and of Christianity."
On dominionism
"Dominionism is simply that Christians of this belief system must take control over the various institutions of society and government. Some things that make this group unique is that they have some unusual concepts of what they call spiritual warfare that have not been seen before in other groups. Spiritual warfare is a common term in evangelicalism and in Christianity, but they have some unique approaches and some unique spins on this that distinguish them from other groups."
On Thomas Muthee's video series
"The process [in these videos] is that the people come together, repent, pray together, expel the demons from their community — which they describe in terms of witches and witchcraft — and then the community undergoes a transformation in which there can be miraculous healing, the growth of very large vegetables [and] the end of corruption and crime. What was totally missed by the press was that Muthee was an international leader in the [NAR] movement at the time and recognized because of his role in this series of videos."
On the topics at Rick Perry's rally
"The major topics at these events [are] anti-abortion, anti-gay rights and the conversion of Jews in order to advance the end times. And this was very visible at Perry's events as these apostles led all of these different prayers and repentance ceremonies at [his rally]."
Last edited by Odin; 08-24-2011 at 09:00 PM.
To recommend thrift to the poor is both grotesque and insulting. It is like advising a man who is starving to eat less.
-Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism
Rick Perry will win the votes of the people least fussy about intellectual integrity. Such is an easy concession on my part. Question: does anyone want someone like that as a leader?
In his first two years as President, President Obama has had a huge volume of legislative successes. Everything that he wanted? No. No President gets that. Does that mean that everyone likes it? You obviously don't, and neither did the rest of the ideological purists of the Right. But take a good look at this graph:I guess attacking Perry is the only strategy in play as Obama has no record to run on.
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshor...four-bears.gif
and contrast the blue line to the gray line. Those two lines coincided very well for about a year and a half, suggesting a reprise of the worst economic meltdown since the 1930s. If we should get a double-dip, then the Republican majority in the House owns it.
We have had an economic recovery -- one slower than what almost anyone wants, but probably the strongest that we could have in view of the circumstances. This economic meltdown has an obvious analogue to that of 1929-1932 in cause (a speculative boom that went bust) and in that both were at or near the starts of 4Ts. Economic downturns in a 4T aren't the garden-variety recessions (as in 1958, 1969, and 1987) that allow quick and complete recoveries. People gave to deal with the reality of a sharp, severe downturn followed by a slow recovery. Economic conditions in November 1936 were awful, but FDR still won a landslide. From early 1933 to 1936 America experienced a slow and steady recovery from the ominous to the awful.It will however fail completely without an economic recovery. Much like Bush in '92 this strategy seems almost never to work. Perry is the only candidate who can unite all the factions of the Repubs, Romney cant lockdown the conservatives and that will prevent him from beating Perry, unless Perry melts down. Bachman, Cain and Santorum will all be leaving the race and most of thier supporters will go to Perry. Any Palin supporters holding out will go to Perry. If Chris Christie were to enter it could throw the race open agaian but even then, i think Perry has the edge.
There is no easy way out of this depression -- and we might as well call it that. The President that we now have can make fresh promises in the summer and autumn of 2012 whose success is contingent upon the Democrats holding the Senate and winning the House... and of course the re-election of the President. The Hard Right can offer nothing more than greater hardships with theological cloaking -- that God will somehow bless the suffering of the non-rich on behalf of the super-rich.
Anything can happen in the process that leads to the Republican nomination. It's easy enough to say that if Mitt Romney is such a trimmer that he contradicts himself with every speech, then Rick Perry is a lunatic. President Obama may have failed to convince Americans in 2010 that Congress matters just as much as does the Presidency, but he can make that message next year. What he must do he does.
Last edited by pbrower2a; 08-25-2011 at 08:51 AM.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."
― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters
... or the Obama campaign can take the supposed High Road, and never bring it up. This seems to be their modus operandi on policy, and may very well translate to campaigning. Obama is still trying to be the reasonable man in an unreasonable world. Rational discourse hasn't worked, yet that's the path they continue to follow.
I serioulsy wonder if there is any fight in him.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.
Americans show themselves far fussier about politics than they were in 2000. They are less willing to tolerate a mediocrity in 2012 than they were in 2000. People recognize how significant politics are. The economy now seems as much as ever a zero-sum game with political choices deciding who gets the gold and who gets the shaft. In good economic times, most politicians can ride the economic cycle and get away with it. This time they can't.
The economic Right could win in 2010 if it could show that sacrifices on behalf of shareholders and bureaucratic elites brought economic growth and security; the recent record of corporate behavior shows that the mandated sacrifices (which those elites can demand through means other than political decisions) create starker disparities of privilege and deprivation instead of investment in plant and equipment that enhances productivity and creates jobs. Even the tax cuts or the Dubya era better reward those who can export capital (and in turn jobs) profitably than they do start-up small businesses, let alone working people. The political Right is as much the Religious Right... and the Religious Right is clearly in decline outside of its core areas in the South.
America worked better politically when moderates were the norm even in the South. Think about this: Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton were governors of Southern states. Tennessee used to elect such senators as Al Gore and Jim Sasser. To be sure, the Right would love to have someone like the late Jesse Helms or the current Saxby Chambliss, a vulgarian on culture but a suck-up to corporate power, as political leaders everywhere in America. Such solves nothing except to make people comfortable about rottenness.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."
― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters
