Originally Posted by
Eric the Green
I'm not as good at predicting elections as I am on some others things, mostly because of my hope and my leftward bias. But I have got some things right. When I mention to people that I predicted Gore would win in 2000, the invariable response is, "he did." I didn't venture a prediction for Bush-Kerry, but I did predict that Kerry would be the nominee at a time when he was polling in single digits. But I have some observations about 2012.
There's not a lot of hope for more real change, but is that really Obama's fault? Maybe he didn't lead the way toward a better stimulus package, but he did accomplish a lot considering our lousy congress. Financial reform, health care reform, repeal of don't ask don't tell, for example. Unlike what Weave says above, Obama is to the right of Clinton, and yet he got more done than Clinton did. He actually GOT a dreaded health care reform measure; the Clintons failed. He has two foreign policy triumphs now too. And what kind of supreme court would we have had if McCain has won in 2008? I put the "blame" for Nov.2010 squarely on the American people. They did what they had done in 1994 all over again. As Clinton once said of us, we need the courage to change, and we lost it, as we had done before in 1994, pretty much over the same issue. The right-wing now feels, as Weave does, that the country belongs to them; but if a wider portion of the electorate votes in 2012 than in 2010, it might not.
One thing I am better at is predicting the economy. Of course, I predicted the crash of 08 almost to the month. And I have thought that, with Neptune entering Pisces for good next February, that the economy could recover somewhat in spite of everything. That might be in time to put it off the table by November. If people perceive things are getting better, even if the statistics are still pretty bad, then Obama's ratings will improve. Right now he beats any GOP challenger even at the low point of his popularity. If the economy somewhat improves, that should be enough to guarantee his reelection against an angry, crazy weasel like Perry or an empty suit like Romney.
Will he carry with him a Democratic congress? That is his only hope for a productive 2nd term, instead of one where his only achievement is to do as Clinton did and cave in to the right-wing. It will only take 24 seats to put the gavel back in Nancy's hands, and at least 18 of the seats that went to the Tea Party or other Republican loonies in 2010 are in districts that voted for Kerry in 2004; many more are in districts that voted for Obama by healthy margins. It is doable, and though there's lack of enthusiasm on the left and anger on the right, the public is increasingly dismayed with the Tea Party. I don't think they want to give the White House as well as congress to these idiots. If Perry wins the nomination, that would be the choice. A charismatic and sensible centrist or a foolish and corrupt lunatic.