Generational Dynamics
Fourth Turning Forum Archive


Popular links:
Generational Dynamics Web Site
Generational Dynamics Forum
Fourth Turning Archive home page
New Fourth Turning Forum

Thread: 2012 Elections - Page 160







Post#3976 at 09-21-2011 05:21 PM by playwrite [at NYC joined Jul 2005 #posts 10,443]
---
09-21-2011, 05:21 PM #3976
Join Date
Jul 2005
Location
NYC
Posts
10,443

Quote Originally Posted by pbrower2a View Post
Mr. Kaiser is right on that one; we don't have statutes against "enemies of the people" and "wreckers of the economy". The Soviet Union did, and those statutes were among the most feared. A train operator could be shot for running trains with too little cargo... or for overloading the trains and thus wearing out the tracks faster (See Solzhenitsyn, The Gulag Archipelago).

The Hard Right has their idea of what a "perfect" America would be, and that would be one in which the ruling elites have absolute power over the masses... perhaps even having the prerogative of killing people for griping or at least sending them off to a labor camp where they either learn to appreciate their masters or die. "Enemy of Prosperity" could be a death sentence.
Okay, if you can get Rick Perry to withdraw his charge, I'll see if I can get this economist blogger to withdraw his. Let me know how it goes.
"The Devil enters the prompter's box and the play is ready to start" - R. Service

“It’s not tax money. The banks have accounts with the Fed … so, to lend to a bank, we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed. It’s much more akin to printing money.” - B.Bernanke


"Keep your filthy hands off my guns while I decide what you can & can't do with your uterus" - Sarah Silverman

If you meet a magic pony on the road, kill it. - Playwrite







Post#3977 at 09-21-2011 05:24 PM by playwrite [at NYC joined Jul 2005 #posts 10,443]
---
09-21-2011, 05:24 PM #3977
Join Date
Jul 2005
Location
NYC
Posts
10,443

Wow, Goldman-Sachs is into MMT?!

They're using the sectorial analysis of Cambridge economist (deceased) Wynne Godley, one of the godfathers of MMT!!

Too bad GS is so evil, but they do get paid BIG bucks for such analysis so maybe a little more credible than guys in trailer parks.

Goldman US Daily : A More Downbeat Message from Our Financial Balances Model (Hatzius/Stehn)

An update of our "financial balances" model, introduced three months ago, points to below-trend growth in 2012. Although the model still suggests that the net impulse from changes in the private and foreign balance will be slightly positive, this is overwhelmed by a negative impulse from fiscal retrenchment. Overall, the results imply some downside risk to our current forecast of slightly below-trend growth next year.




Since the late 1990s, we have repeatedly looked at the US economic outlook via the “financial balances” framework championed by the late Cambridge economist Wynne Godley. It starts from the accounting identity that one person’s spending is always another person’s income. This means that in the economy as a whole, total income must equal total spending, and the financial balances—the gaps between income and spending—of the different sectors of the economy must add up to zero. In turn, this means that the financial balance of the US private sector plus the financial balance of the US public sector must equal the US current account balance (the financial balance of the rest of the world vis-à-vis the US).


But while this identity must always hold ex post in terms of national income accounting, it need not hold ex ante in terms of the spending intentions of the different sectors of the economy. If all sectors taken together try to reduce their financial balance—i.e. increase spending more than income and finance the difference by borrowing more or running down their cash balances—the economy will tend to grow above potential. Conversely, if all sectors taken together try to increase their financial balance—i.e. increase spending less than income and use the difference to accumulate cash or pay down debt—the economy will tend to grow below potential.

- [this is pure MMT]


This suggests that we may be able to predict the ups and downs of the business cycle if we can predict the ups and downs of the ex ante financial balances of the different sectors. In particular, if there is good reason to expect a tendency toward declines in the aggregate financial balance—i.e., spending growth that runs ahead of income growth in the economy as a whole—we should expect above-trend growth in GDP, and vice versa.



A few months ago, we constructed a model to quantify these linkages (see "Private Boost, Public Restraint," US Economics Analyst, 11/25, June 24, 2011). We explain the different components of the private sector balance—household saving, household investment, and the nonfinancial corporate financing gap—as well as the external balance with economic fundamentals such as household wealth, interest rates, house prices, exchange rates, and lending standards. Using assumptions for the evolution of economic fundamentals, we then project the underlying balances into the future, focusing on the overall impulse to aggregate demand. Finally, we compare this impulse with the likely drag from public sector retrenchment and discuss the implications for overall GDP growth.



Our conclusion at the time was that the overall financial balance was still likely to show an ex ante decline—i.e. a drop in personal saving, a rise in residential investment, a decline in corporate net saving, and a decline in the US trade deficit. Although a retrenchment in the public sector was likely to cut the other way, the implication was still for modestly above-trend growth in 2011-2012, at least excluding the negative impact from the increase in oil prices this year.



Three months on, the picture has deteriorated. This is illustrated in the chart below, which plots the private sector boost, public sector drag, and the net effect of the two taken together. To be sure, we still obtain a positive impulse from a predicted decline in the private sector balance. However, the impulse is now only +0.2 percentage point compared with 1-1.5 percentage point three months ago.

[whoops, can't seem to upload graphic - will try later]

The reasons for the reduced impulse lie in the drop in equity prices, a somewhat weaker outlook for credit standards, and an appreciation of the trade-weighted dollar over the past few months. This minor positive impulse now no longer looks large enough to offset the drag from public sector retrenchment. As a result, our model now implies a net impulse from all sectors taken together of -0.6 percentage point in 2012. (The impulse in 2011 is positive, but note that the chart does not include the impact from the sharp increase in real energy prices, which has probably taken as much as 1 percentage point from growth in the first half of 2011; see "Subpar Growth Brings the Fed Back into Play," US Economics Analyst, 11/31, August 5, 2011.)



Financial Balances Model Now Points to Restraint for 2012

On its own, this seems consistent with our real GDP growth forecast of 2% on an annual-average basis. However, the risks to this forecast are tilted to the downside. First, the financial balances impulse excludes the drag from a tighter commodity constraint, which still looks significant. Although energy prices have eased a bit in recent months, the growth impulse in 2012 is still likely to be somewhat negative in 2012 given the lags in the relationship between energy prices and growth, as well as our commodity strategists' view that prices are likely to resume their upward trend. Second, sub-trend growth has historically been an unstable place to be for the United States; there has never been an increase in the unemployment rate of more than 35 basis points (on a 3-month average basis) that has not resulted in a recession. And third, of course, the risk is that the tightening of financial and lending conditions that has caused the message from our financial balances model to become less friendly continues in the wake of the European crisis.
"The Devil enters the prompter's box and the play is ready to start" - R. Service

“It’s not tax money. The banks have accounts with the Fed … so, to lend to a bank, we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed. It’s much more akin to printing money.” - B.Bernanke


"Keep your filthy hands off my guns while I decide what you can & can't do with your uterus" - Sarah Silverman

If you meet a magic pony on the road, kill it. - Playwrite







Post#3978 at 09-21-2011 05:30 PM by KaiserD2 [at David Kaiser '47 joined Jul 2001 #posts 5,220]
---
09-21-2011, 05:30 PM #3978
Join Date
Jul 2001
Location
David Kaiser '47
Posts
5,220

Quote Originally Posted by playwrite View Post
Purposefully trying to wreck the American economy is levying war. And, I have two witnesses - the author and me.
I noticed your smiling face. But let me note that if they had felt that way in the early Republic, there were plenty of bankers who could have been tried for treason then--but it didn't happen.

As for Perry, he is equally full of it, of course, if not more so. By "treasonous" he meant "helping Obama."







Post#3979 at 09-21-2011 07:27 PM by playwrite [at NYC joined Jul 2005 #posts 10,443]
---
09-21-2011, 07:27 PM #3979
Join Date
Jul 2005
Location
NYC
Posts
10,443

Quote Originally Posted by KaiserD2 View Post
I noticed your smiling face. But let me note that if they had felt that way in the early Republic, there were plenty of bankers who could have been tried for treason then--but it didn't happen.

As for Perry, he is equally full of it, of course, if not more so. By "treasonous" he meant "helping Obama."
You're right about Perry, and the larger ethical issue as well. I was just having a little catharsis fun.

I'll do a 1/4 turn on the Rosary.
"The Devil enters the prompter's box and the play is ready to start" - R. Service

“It’s not tax money. The banks have accounts with the Fed … so, to lend to a bank, we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed. It’s much more akin to printing money.” - B.Bernanke


"Keep your filthy hands off my guns while I decide what you can & can't do with your uterus" - Sarah Silverman

If you meet a magic pony on the road, kill it. - Playwrite







Post#3980 at 09-22-2011 05:45 PM by playwrite [at NYC joined Jul 2005 #posts 10,443]
---
09-22-2011, 05:45 PM #3980
Join Date
Jul 2005
Location
NYC
Posts
10,443

Whoa, now this is the guy I voted for

Obama standing in front of the decaying major bridge that connects John Boehner's Ohio with Mitch McConnell's Kentucky had this to say -

This bill is not that complicated: it’s a bill that would put people back to work rebuilding America. […] There is work to be done, and workers ready to do it. So let’s tell Congress to pass this jobs bill right away. [Crowd: "Pass the bill!"]
What is Congress waiting for? Why is it taking so long? Now, the bridge behind us just happens to connect the state that’s home to to the Speaker of the House with the home state the Republican leader in the Senate.

Now that’s just a coincidence. It’s purely accidental that that happened. (Laughs)

But part of the reason I came here is that Mr. Boehner and Mr. McConnell, those are the two most powerful Republicans in government. They can either kill this jobs bill or they can help pass this jobs bill. […] There’s no reason for Republicans in Congress to stand in the way of more construction projects. There’s no reason to stand in the way of more jobs.

Mr. Boehner. Mr. McConnell. Help us rebuild this bridge! Help us rebuild America! Help us put construction workers back to work! Pass this bill!
Callin 'em out by name!

Does the term, "kick ass," come to mind?
"The Devil enters the prompter's box and the play is ready to start" - R. Service

“It’s not tax money. The banks have accounts with the Fed … so, to lend to a bank, we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed. It’s much more akin to printing money.” - B.Bernanke


"Keep your filthy hands off my guns while I decide what you can & can't do with your uterus" - Sarah Silverman

If you meet a magic pony on the road, kill it. - Playwrite







Post#3981 at 09-22-2011 07:00 PM by Aldaris [at 1983 joined Oct 2010 #posts 78]
---
09-22-2011, 07:00 PM #3981
Join Date
Oct 2010
Location
1983
Posts
78

Yeah, that's the guy I voted for too. Then that guy left after inauguration. Will he stick around this time? Junior tried to say it best http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rovQj9vNq8I
'True terror is to wake up one morning and discover that your high school class is running the country.' - Kurt Vonnegut







Post#3982 at 09-24-2011 03:56 PM by katsung47 [at joined Jan 2011 #posts 289]
---
09-24-2011, 03:56 PM #3982
Join Date
Jan 2011
Posts
289

Ron Paul wins New Hampshire straw poll, raises 1.5 million in a day!
 
Ron Paul wins California Republican straw poll
LA Times
Sept 18, 2011
Below find the results:

Congressman Ron Paul (374, 44.9%)
Governor Rick Perry (244, 29.3%)?
Mitt Romney (74, 8.8%)
Congresswoman Michele Bachmann (64, 7.7%)

http://www.prisonplanet.com/ron-paul-wins-california-republican-straw-poll.html







Post#3983 at 09-24-2011 09:33 PM by JustPassingThrough [at joined Dec 2006 #posts 5,196]
---
09-24-2011, 09:33 PM #3983
Join Date
Dec 2006
Posts
5,196








Post#3984 at 09-24-2011 09:56 PM by TeddyR [at joined Aug 2011 #posts 998]
---
09-24-2011, 09:56 PM #3984
Join Date
Aug 2011
Posts
998

65% say Obama is doing as well or better than Bush.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/149666/Ma...orse-Bush.aspx

"Lies, damn lies and statistics.."
-Twain







Post#3985 at 09-25-2011 12:12 AM by millennialX [at Gotham City, USA joined Oct 2010 #posts 6,597]
---
09-25-2011, 12:12 AM #3985
Join Date
Oct 2010
Location
Gotham City, USA
Posts
6,597

Obama used the "M" word.

During a speech, he asked African American citizens to "march with him."

Commands like this is the 4T talk that was expected of him. But it slightly sickens me that he waited to speak like an actual commander so late in his first term. It reeks of nothing more but election campaign, mumbo jumbo.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/09/24/politi...html?hpt=hp_t1
Born in 1981 and INFJ Gen Yer







Post#3986 at 09-25-2011 02:10 AM by pbrower2a [at "Michigrim" joined May 2005 #posts 15,014]
---
09-25-2011, 02:10 AM #3986
Join Date
May 2005
Location
"Michigrim"
Posts
15,014

Do you know who owns the New York Daily News? Hint: it is the same person who owns FoX Propaganda Channel.

To give some perspective on how the New York Daily News is received, its owner Rupert Murdoch once asked the late Alfred Bloomingdale why he didn't advertise in the rag. The retail tycoon responded:

"Your readers are my shoplifters!"
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."


― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters







Post#3987 at 09-25-2011 09:38 AM by JustPassingThrough [at joined Dec 2006 #posts 5,196]
---
09-25-2011, 09:38 AM #3987
Join Date
Dec 2006
Posts
5,196

Quote Originally Posted by pbrower2a View Post
Do you know who owns the New York Daily News? Hint: it is the same person who owns FoX Propaganda Channel.

To give some perspective on how the New York Daily News is received, its owner Rupert Murdoch once asked the late Alfred Bloomingdale why he didn't advertise in the rag. The retail tycoon responded:

"Your readers are my shoplifters!"
Murdoch owns the New York Post. The Daily News is owned by Mort Zuckerman. Anyway, take it up with Gallup:

Majority Rates Obama Same or Worse Compared With Bush







Post#3988 at 09-26-2011 01:09 AM by Alioth68 [at Minnesota joined Apr 2010 #posts 693]
---
09-26-2011, 01:09 AM #3988
Join Date
Apr 2010
Location
Minnesota
Posts
693

Quote Originally Posted by JustPassingThrough View Post
Murdoch owns the New York Post. The Daily News is owned by Mort Zuckerman. Anyway, take it up with Gallup:

Majority Rates Obama Same or Worse Compared With Bush
Sure. The very first paragraph of that linked article reads:

Asked to compare Barack Obama with George W. Bush, Americans are more inclined to say Obama has been a better (43%) rather than a worse (34%) president, with 22% seeing no difference between the two. Obama compares much less favorably to Bill Clinton, with half saying Obama has been worse than Clinton and 12% saying better.
Emphasis mine. So while 34+22 (56) percent think he's the same or worse than Bush as you so cleverly point out, 43+22 (65) percent think he's better or the same. So you can "spin" it either way by pointing out either of these "majorities" while ignoring the other, but I would say the relevant distinction here is that there are more "better" responses than "worse" responses, and thus adding the former to the neutral 22 percent will yield an even bigger "majority", as TeddyR pointed out. "Lies, damned lies and statistics" indeed.

Not that I put much stock in these kinds of polls this far from an election or anything. Just pointing out that TeddyR had a point, backed by an even bigger number.
Last edited by Alioth68; 09-26-2011 at 01:15 AM.
"Understanding is a three-edged sword." --Kosh Naranek
"...Your side, my side, and the truth." --John Sheridan

"No more half-measures." --Mike Ehrmantraut

"rationalizing...is never clear thinking." --SM Kovalinsky







Post#3989 at 09-26-2011 07:47 AM by Alioth68 [at Minnesota joined Apr 2010 #posts 693]
---
09-26-2011, 07:47 AM #3989
Join Date
Apr 2010
Location
Minnesota
Posts
693

I will give you this though, JPT--"same as Bush" certainly isn't very flattering....

From the Gallup link:

Indeed, those who say Obama has been about the same as Bush generally view Obama negatively, with 27% approving and 62% disapproving of the way Obama is handling his job as president.
So we have 27% of that 22% (6% of total) who say that him being the same as Bush is a "good" thing, basically, while 62% of that 22% (14% of total) say that as if it were a "bad" thing. I would guess the former are mainly either foreign policy hawks or corporate/financial bigwigs (who have had their issues served well by both), while the latter are probably more people on the left disappointed in Obama (and maybe some on the right who acknowledge Bush wasn't good either), and probably a lot in the center or not particularly ideological who are disgusted with both.

But if we add that 6% who apparently approved of Bush and approve of Obama (equally so) to the 43% who say he is better than Bush, we get 49%. If we add that 14% who disapprove both equally to the 34% who think Obama's worse, we get 48%. Again, for what it's worth and again, these certainly aren't very flattering stats from my perspective (most halfway decent Presidents should blow Bush 43 out of the water). But the positive still slightly edges the negative--slightly.
Last edited by Alioth68; 09-26-2011 at 08:13 AM.
"Understanding is a three-edged sword." --Kosh Naranek
"...Your side, my side, and the truth." --John Sheridan

"No more half-measures." --Mike Ehrmantraut

"rationalizing...is never clear thinking." --SM Kovalinsky







Post#3990 at 09-27-2011 06:55 PM by KaiserD2 [at David Kaiser '47 joined Jul 2001 #posts 5,220]
---
09-27-2011, 06:55 PM #3990
Join Date
Jul 2001
Location
David Kaiser '47
Posts
5,220

Sometimes it's amazing how subtle, yet critical, media bias can be. Or so it seems.

David Axelrod, Obama's political strategist, gave a talk in New Hampshire to Democrats in which he said Obama's re-election campaign would be a "titanic struggle." At least, that's what I think he said.

Let's pause for a moment:

titanic: "having great magnitude, force, or power : colossal <a titanic struggle>"

I'd say he nailed it!

But all over the press, you are reading that Axelrod said the campaign would be "a Titanic struggle," which of course, has a completely different connotation, as in, a struggle doomed to disaster.

Now it's possible, although I doubt it VERY much, that Axelrod actually handed out a text with a capital T. Any info on this point would be much appreciated. But if he didn't, this is a dreadful example of media spin.







Post#3991 at 09-27-2011 08:55 PM by James50 [at Atlanta, GA US joined Feb 2010 #posts 3,605]
---
09-27-2011, 08:55 PM #3991
Join Date
Feb 2010
Location
Atlanta, GA US
Posts
3,605

Quote Originally Posted by KaiserD2 View Post
But all over the press
Where have you seen this? It is obviously silly. Are you sure the mentions are more than tongue-in-cheek?

James50
The whole modern world has divided itself into Conservatives and Progressives. The business of Progressives is to go on making mistakes. The business of the Conservatives is to prevent the mistakes from being corrected. - G.K. Chesterton







Post#3992 at 09-27-2011 10:49 PM by KaiserD2 [at David Kaiser '47 joined Jul 2001 #posts 5,220]
---
09-27-2011, 10:49 PM #3992
Join Date
Jul 2001
Location
David Kaiser '47
Posts
5,220

Quote Originally Posted by James50 View Post
Where have you seen this? It is obviously silly. Are you sure the mentions are more than tongue-in-cheek?

James50
Here, for one. Some people are getting it right.







Post#3993 at 09-28-2011 02:51 PM by TimWalker [at joined May 2007 #posts 6,368]
---
09-28-2011, 02:51 PM #3993
Join Date
May 2007
Posts
6,368

It has occurred to me that, so far as foreign policy is concerned, we could be foretunate if a GOP candidate won. That is, if he were more like a Nixon than a Dubya. Someone with a hard line, hawkish reputation. Someone who, unlike Obama, could get away with making a deal with the devil.







Post#3994 at 09-28-2011 04:33 PM by KaiserD2 [at David Kaiser '47 joined Jul 2001 #posts 5,220]
---
09-28-2011, 04:33 PM #3994
Join Date
Jul 2001
Location
David Kaiser '47
Posts
5,220

Quote Originally Posted by TimWalker View Post
It has occurred to me that, so far as foreign policy is concerned, we could be foretunate if a GOP candidate won. That is, if he were more like a Nixon than a Dubya. Someone with a hard line, hawkish reputation. Someone who, unlike Obama, could get away with making a deal with the devil.
What devil do you have in mind? All the Republicans are already bashing Obama for being too hard on poor Israel--they wouldn't be more flexible there.







Post#3995 at 09-29-2011 02:50 PM by Weave [at joined Feb 2010 #posts 909]
---
09-29-2011, 02:50 PM #3995
Join Date
Feb 2010
Posts
909

Obama losing in the rust belt.....

Obama is underwater in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Conceivably, Obama can lose Ohio and still win but losing in Pennsylvania would mean a loss, probably a very large loss nationwide.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/art...nsylvania.html







Post#3996 at 09-29-2011 03:29 PM by KaiserD2 [at David Kaiser '47 joined Jul 2001 #posts 5,220]
---
09-29-2011, 03:29 PM #3996
Join Date
Jul 2001
Location
David Kaiser '47
Posts
5,220

I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that I had been offered a chance to eat with the President in exchange for a $75 contribution. I passed. A day or two ago I got an email from Michelle. (Well, you know what I mean.) The price was down to $25. I have been thinking that with the catastrophe of a Republican President (which it will be, believe me) staring me in the face, I have to take a deep breath and do something--so I gave $50.

This is, however, an indication that the vast network of small donors like myself is indeed moribund, and I can see why.







Post#3997 at 09-29-2011 04:11 PM by millennialX [at Gotham City, USA joined Oct 2010 #posts 6,597]
---
09-29-2011, 04:11 PM #3997
Join Date
Oct 2010
Location
Gotham City, USA
Posts
6,597

Quote Originally Posted by KaiserD2 View Post
I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that I had been offered a chance to eat with the President in exchange for a $75 contribution. I passed. A day or two ago I got an email from Michelle. (Well, you know what I mean.) The price was down to $25. I have been thinking that with the catastrophe of a Republican President (which it will be, believe me) staring me in the face, I have to take a deep breath and do something--so I gave $50.

This is, however, an indication that the vast network of small donors like myself is indeed moribund, and I can see why.
Congrats!

.........................................
Born in 1981 and INFJ Gen Yer







Post#3998 at 09-29-2011 04:24 PM by Copperfield [at joined Feb 2010 #posts 2,244]
---
09-29-2011, 04:24 PM #3998
Join Date
Feb 2010
Posts
2,244

Quote Originally Posted by KaiserD2 View Post
I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that I had been offered a chance to eat with the President in exchange for a $75 contribution. I passed. A day or two ago I got an email from Michelle. (Well, you know what I mean.) The price was down to $25. I have been thinking that with the catastrophe of a Republican President (which it will be, believe me) staring me in the face, I have to take a deep breath and do something--so I gave $50.

This is, however, an indication that the vast network of small donors like myself is indeed moribund, and I can see why.
You should have held out a few more days. Apparently the price is down to $3 now. Quite a bargain to dine with the royals.







Post#3999 at 09-29-2011 04:33 PM by KaiserD2 [at David Kaiser '47 joined Jul 2001 #posts 5,220]
---
09-29-2011, 04:33 PM #3999
Join Date
Jul 2001
Location
David Kaiser '47
Posts
5,220

Quote Originally Posted by millennialX View Post
Congrats!

.........................................
I think I was unclear again. I only bought a lottery ticket, basically. Odds are way against me actually showing up there.







Post#4000 at 09-29-2011 04:56 PM by JohnMc82 [at Back in Jax joined Jan 2011 #posts 1,962]
---
09-29-2011, 04:56 PM #4000
Join Date
Jan 2011
Location
Back in Jax
Posts
1,962

First degree price discrimination. They think they know how much someone is willing to pay based on prior contributions.

Or whatever other demographic information they're aggregating. I can't imagine the executive office has a hard time pulling up financial and employment data on anyone. But if that is the case, it would be third degree price discrimination..
Those words, "temperate and moderate", are words either of political cowardice, or of cunning, or seduction. A thing, moderately good, is not so good as it ought to be. Moderation in temper, is always a virtue; but moderation in principle, is a species of vice.

'82 - Once & always independent
-----------------------------------------