Originally Posted by
pbrower2a
Posted by me in an election-history forum
Because that forum has, in general, users more attuned to the approval of Senators, Governors, and the President on a state-by-state basis, I needed go no further. But in general, it takes 270 electoral votes to win the Presidency outright (the only reliable way in which to win). Beginning in 1992, every Democratic nominee for President has won eighteen states and the District of Columbia, and the President is in a very good position to win every one of those. That is 242 electoral votes (CA CT DE DC HI IL MA ME MI MN NJ NY OR PA VT WA WI), slightly more than 90% of the electoral votes that the President needs to win. The Republican nominee won't have much leeway for the rest.
Democrats have won three states four of five times (IA NH NM). Mitt Romney somehow (he lives there) can win New Hampshire and has ties to lots of people who left "Taxachusetts" where he was governor. New Hampshire is more like Massachusetts was when Romney could win the state than Massachusetts is today. If Romney is the GOP nominee, then President Obama stands to lose the four electoral votes that New Hampshire offers. But he has been in consistently good shape in Iowa and New Mexico, so those two states bring the level of nearly-certain electoral votes to 253. If Romney isn't the nominee, then the near-sure total for the President goes to 257. No prospective Republican nominee for President is in a good position in which to contest either Iowa or New Mexico -- bare Gore wins but bare Kerry losses.
Any Republican nominee other than Romney has no room for losing either
Colorado and Nevada together (15)
Florida (29)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Virginia (13)
Colorado and Nevada (15) are likely to vote together, and in view of how they voted in 2010 in a great year for Republicans, those two sink anyone other than Romney. But against Mitt Romney they bring the total electoral votes for the President to 'only' 268, so the President would have to win something else. The others are best considered 'independent events' -- that the states are different enough from each other that the President can win any one of them without winning any other. I have seen scenarios in which the President wins Florida or Ohio but not both, Virginia or North Carolina and not both, and only one of those four.
"Independent event" is statistical jargon, so I need to explain it. Coin tosses and rolls of a die are independent events. Prior tosses and rolls do not have influence upon what happens on any subsequent toss or roll. A "dependent event" in this context implies that something else must happen for an event to happen. The President has no chance of winning Indiana without also winning Ohio, Arizona or Montana without also winning Colorado and Nevada, Missouri without also winning Ohio and Virginia, or Georgia without also winning Florida and North Carolina. That is why I am not discussing Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, or Montana except in this paragraph.
So far, the President will have to win every state that Al Gore won in 2000 (some still hold that he lost Florida to chicanery, but in view of the corrupt Governor that Florida has I wouldn't rule a repetition of such chicanery in 2012) and either Florida, Ohio, or some combination of states.
(against anyone but Romney because NH becomes secure)
CO+NV
FL
NC
OH
VA
...and against Romney,
FL
OH
one of CO or NV but also NC
one of CO or NV but also VA
one of CO or NV but also AZ
Here, Arizona is independent from Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia ... but not from Colorado and Nevada. It is not a preposterous possibility so long as the President wins both Colorado and Nevada. John McCain won the state by less than 10%, which is the usual level of gain that a nominee gets by being the Favorite Son. Against anyone other than Romney, Arizona would be icing on the cake because the President would win with Colorado and Nevada together.