Originally Posted by jadams

OK. When I read Generations, I also saw the generations as prime movers. But over time I came to see the turnings as having a life of their own. They are the environment for what the generations become. Civics don't become civics because they are led by prophets, they become outer-directed civics because they encounter hard times. Prophets become inner-directed narcissists because they are raised in good times and don't have to worry about survival. And as the times change the prophets become less narcissistic because their false selves are stripped away by the hard times and they too are changed, maybe going back to the core values they started out with. Ditto the Xers, who start off cynical and dark and grow into efficient, pragmatic managers who do not need to grab all the praise and goodies (cause there isn't that much to go around during a crisis).



So you are saying that the Republicans, after 911 "won" the culture wars unraveling struggle and that rightist Prophets led the Crisis response to 911 and now we are wrapping up that crisis and are or have moved on to a quasi 1T (?) or maybe the crisis was resolved more like the civil war crisis. In any case, the millies are not civics because there is no viable prophet generation to lead them. I am sorry that I am having trouble hearing what you are saying. Not sure if it is because I am rejecting it or because I can't understand it. To me, what we went through from 911 until Katrina was a continuation of the culture wars, and after Katrina we began to see just how bad things had become in America. The final nail in the coffin was the 2008 economic collapse. For me, that is when the 4T began. For me, 4T's are about resolving and rebuilding after the 3T unraveling, and the 1T that follows is a rising out of the ashes and the building of a more harmonious social contract. As you can see, I still cannot see it your way, but I am trying to understand it.



This is interesting to me. I am going to get the Adams book. Your last paragraph (stop the Republicans before they destroy are way of life) is something I have seen happening throughout the entire 3T. The only difference now is that the mood and vision has changed since Katrina. That is when people began to see that the right wing might be wrong, and after the Crash it has really hit home. Unfortunately it took southerners 100 years to"win the civil war" and they were still on the wrong side of history... maybe. Who knows? Maybe I am. Maybe the 21st century is going to belong to the corporations. The nation states will wither and a multinational aristocracy will rule the serfs, killing off as many as they can in the name of social darwinism and ecology. I don't know. Do you think China will go for that?

Bottom line: you theory is too depressing for me. I prefer to think that there is hope for a better world. But I will grant you, you may be soooo right.

OK, now we are getting somewhere, and I appreciate your willingness to keep thinking about these things.

I did not say that the Republicans won the culture war. In fact I think they are going to lose the culture war in most of the country and at the national level, e.g., end of don't ask, don't tell. They used it to build a narrow majority. But their real achievement under Bush was to combine more tax cuts with two long wars, creating the permanent, huge deficit. Without those two changes we would have the economic resources to cope with the great recession. They made sure that we do not. They also institutionalized indefinite detention for terror subjects, drone strikes, and and endless attempt to track down bad guys in remote regions of the Middle East--all of which has been continued, or extended, by Obama. And Abramoff, Delay, Norquist and the rest of them developed this interlocking network of lobbyists and politicians that rules Washington. It was already there but they raised it to a completely new level with things like Norquist's K Street project.

You have an optimistic view of 4Ts, as I said. Unravelings are about collapse, 4Ts are about recovery, in your view. To me Unravelings are about the death of an older order, 4Ts are about the birth of a new one--and there's nothing inherently good about the new one. It depends on who is fathering and mothering it.

And yes, I think hero generations become heroic as a result of being enlisted, physically enlisted, in a great crusade, usually by Prophets. That's the only way for them to get the experience of being Heroes. Now in fact, some Millennials will get leadership training earlier than GIs because there's a vacuum in the older generation. Take my son the principal, whose bosses are Xers--there are no Boomers in his outfit. (There are very few Boomers in the Charter school movement, particularly in the large organizations. This is typical. There are a couple like John Canada who simply run their own schools. but they are not institution builders.)

As for the rest of the world, there is no major nation whose attitudes at the moment are remotely similar to ours. Certainly not in Europe. There are no European politicians, none, talking like our Republicans. And although I would be interested to hear about this from James, I doubt that the Chinese are putting all their trust in the free market. The government has had a lot to do with the direction they are taking.

Amy's post also hit the nail on the head, because it's about the danger of one of those guys getting in. They are nuts, all of them. We are hoping that Romney is only pretending, but we really don't even know that.

And by the way. . .the reference for it taking a century (more, actually) for the South to reverse the outcome in the Civil War. . .white southerners are certainly creating an alternative world down there, a world without government. The largest county in Alabama has just gone bankrupt. One could say the real question before us now is whether they are going to be able to extend their model into other parts of the country.

Originally Posted by KaiserD2

They are nuts, all of them.

You know, I really do try to be open minded, and if I hear someone with a good idea then I will consider it. I try very hard to be non-partisan when listening to debates. But I have to tell you, I went away after watching that debate with this conclusion. The logical explanation is that the Republicans truly want to lose.

I will say this, John Huntsman did make a couple of comments which were based on reality and Rick Santorum did suggest that we must focus on creating more manufacturing jobs. (But then he got shot down on that one by Newt.) Which further makes me think that the Republicans plan is to lose, because the only two some what reasonable candidates are in last place.

Originally Posted by ASB65

You know, I really do try to be open minded, and if I hear someone with a good idea then I will consider it. I try very hard to be non-partisan when listening to debates. But I have to tell you, I went away after watching that debate with this conclusion. The logical explanation is that the Republicans truly want to lose.

I will say this, John Huntsman did make a couple of comments which were based on reality and Rick Santorum did suggest that we must focus on creating more manufacturing jobs. (But then he got shot down on that one by Newt.) Which further makes me think that the Republicans plan is to lose, because the only two some what reasonable candidates are in last place.

Amy, perhaps you should discuss them with some of your fellow local parents. You might be very surprised.

Meanwhile, SNL seemed to know what was coming last night. . ..

Originally Posted by KaiserD2

Amy, perhaps you should discuss them with some of your fellow local parents. You might be very surprised.

Meanwhile, SNL seemed to know what was coming last night. . ..

I have never been able to understand the whole Rick Perry thing down here. It truly boogles the mind and I have no logical explanation for it. Oh here was one of the truly ironic parts of the debate. Rick Perry, of all people, was the one who brought up and attacked corporate cronyism...Rick Perry...LOL... He is probably the most guilty one of all the candidates up there on the stage of that. He takes money left and right from the corporate lobbyist, then turns around and gives these companies huge government contracts or gives their spouses and friends government jobs. And he doesn't even try to hide it. We could build a whole Disney fantasy land theme park down here around him.

Originally Posted by ASB65

I have never been able to understand the whole Rick Perry thing down here. It truly boogles the mind and I have no logical explanation for it. Oh here was one of the truly ironic parts of the debate. Rick Perry, of all people, was the one who brought up and attacked corporate cronyism...Rick Perry...LOL... He is probably the most guilty one of all the candidates up there on the stage of that. He takes money left and right from the corporate lobbyist, then turns around and gives these companies huge government contracts or gives their spouses and friends government jobs. And he doesn't even try to hide it. We could build a whole Disney fantasy land theme park down here around him.

And next to Cain, who I am increasingly convinced is a psychopath, Perry looks ... Um... More human? Lord it is a zoo. No wonder David is a pessimist. PS I too am hearing more and more about war with Iran. Is this the capitalist idea for getting out of this mess? On the other hand, I did take heart from the recent election results, especially the ones in the south. Sigh, I wish Obama would just resign. But like Deb said, what difference would it make when the system is this shot?

Originally Posted by KaiserD2

...

And by the way. . .the reference for it taking a century (more, actually) for the South to reverse the outcome in the Civil War. . .white southerners are certainly creating an alternative world down there, a world without government. The largest county in Alabama has just gone bankrupt. One could say the real question before us now is whether they are going to be able to extend their model into other parts of the country.

The Jefferson County bankupcy is a disaster and shows extremely bad financial management, but I don't think that this is related to some southern alternate world.

Sewer debt drives Alabama county into bankruptcy - The Globe and Mail
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...rticle2231244/
..."A federal court forced Jefferson County to begin a huge upgrade of its outdated and overwhelmed sewer system to meet federal clean-water standards in the 1990s, and officials used bonds to finance the improvements. Outside advisers suggested a series of complex deals with variable-rate interest that were later shown to be laced with bribes and influence-peddling.
Loan payments rose quickly because of increasing interest rates as global credit markets struggled, and the county could no longer afford its payments."

Originally Posted by KaiserD2

As for the rest of the world, there is no major nation whose attitudes at the moment are remotely similar to ours. Certainly not in Europe. There are no European politicians, none, talking like our Republicans.

Huh? Everyone in Europe - British, French, Germans, Italians, Greeks - is talking austerity and balanced budgets. These are core Republican values (although admittedly poorly implemented in the past.)

James50

Originally Posted by KaiserD2

And although I would be interested to hear about this from James, I doubt that the Chinese are putting all their trust in the free market. The government has had a lot to do with the direction they are taking.

The Chinese government is directing massive investments in fixed assets. Its well over 50% of their economy whereas here its more like 20%. Many think this is a fixed asset bubble. There are already signs of this in huge unoccupied housing projects.

Its amazing to see and I hope our company can participate in the bubble, but I doubt it is sustainable. There are huge bumps in the road ahead for China. Who knows when or what form they will take. Planned economies (and China is not totally planned), always end up with a poor distribution of capital. We will see that eventually in China.

James50

Originally Posted by radind

The Jefferson County bankupcy is a disaster and shows extremely bad financial management, but I don't think that this is related to some southern alternate world.

Yes, this is unfair to target the Jefferson County bankruptcy as somehow a result of 'southern white republicans' financial planning. Recall that Harrisburg Pennsylvania, Vallejo California, and Central Falls RI have all also filed bankruptcy. No doubt a number of Democrats were to blame for these as well.

Originally Posted by James50

Huh? Everyone in Europe - British, French, Germans, Italians, Greeks - is talking austerity and balanced budgets. These are core Republican values (although admittedly poorly implemented in the past.)

James50

They are preaching austerity within a much more generous framework. They all have family allowances, single-payer health care or some simple substitute for it, much stronger unions, and much more industry. You can't compare the two.

Yes, China is probably more like where we were in the 1920s, but surely it is better to expand fixed assets that credit-default swaps????

I think, by the way, that Europe will eventually get off the austerity train. Today a Greek working in a US university advocates dumping the Euro in the NY Times.

Originally Posted by jadams

And next to Cain, who I am increasingly convinced is a psychopath, Perry looks ... Um... More human? Lord it is a zoo. No wonder David is a pessimist. PS I too am hearing more and more about war with Iran. Is this the capitalist idea for getting out of this mess? On the other hand, I did take heart from the recent election results, especially the ones in the south. Sigh, I wish Obama would just resign. But like Deb said, what difference would it make when the system is this shot?

No, Iran has nothing to do with capitalism. Again, Bush wrote the idea in stone that Iran must not have a nuclear weapon and that has now escalated to something new: Iran must not achieve the capability to build one. AIPAC rules Washington, the Jewish vote is critical in various states, but above all, I think the foreign policy establishment now buys the Bush doctrine of unilateral non-proliferation measures by force. So unless the Iranians very publicly backed down, which won't happen.. . we are trapped by our own rhetoric. And I think Obama's people may be thinking it would be good politics, too. Hillary would love it as her legacy.

James, looking at those last posts of yours. . .I just have to say this.

You are right, I think, that you would be right at home as a British Tory or a German Christian Democrat. They represent Eisenhower Republican orthodoxy, in which I think you believe. What I simply can't understand is the refusal of a man of your intelligence to see that such views have nothing to do with those of the Republican base anymore. Obama is much closer to you than any of the Republican candidates except perhaps Romney, yet you persist in blaming him for this mess. (And arguing that the Republicans would have signed on to a Simpson-Bowles deal instead of reflexively opposing anything Obama put forward. Again: you would have welcomed it, but they would not.) I won't belabor this any further, but I just don't get it.

Originally Posted by KaiserD2

Obama is much closer to you than any of the Republican candidates except perhaps Romney, yet you persist in blaming him for this mess.

I don't blame Obama for this mess although he owns more and more of it as time goes by. What I blame Obama for is not getting behind the closest thing to a bipartisan solution that we are likely to see. His actions did not cause the financial crisis, but he is avoiding the hard steps needed to get us out of it. He has not shown any political courage on the subject of entitlements. Its too bad.

James50

Originally Posted by James50

Huh? Everyone in Europe - British, French, Germans, Italians, Greeks - is talking austerity and balanced budgets. These are core Republican values (although admittedly poorly implemented in the past.)

James50

The Prof is blinded by his hatred of all things GOP I am afraid. The EU is handling things worse than we are, if that is actually possible.

I do think a collapse there will have significant impact here and in Asia.

Originally Posted by KaiserD2

You are being very clear, and you are showing great faith in the ability of the system to respond to the needs of the people, especially in a 4T. But in my opinion, a 4T is driven by a leadership elite that commands a certain necessary degree of support but doesn't necessarily care about the concerns of the average people at all. The Republicans did almost nothing for the average person in the wake of the Civil War, for instance. You are seeing this process as a self-correcting mechanism that will inevitably do good, and I don't believe that. The concerns that you mention are your concerns and they are also my concerns. But they are not the concerns of the elite that has gotten control of our country over the last 40 years and consolidated its control during this 4T (the Obama Administration is going to be a relatively small blip in the curve, whether it lasts 4 years or 8), and therefore, it's most unlikely that they will be solved during this crisis. (Nor are they the concerns of many of our fellow citizens, who are convinced that overspending by government is the source of all our problems.)

The biggest mistake a left-winger can make is to assume that justice must ultimately prevail. Except the mistake that elites have no power and simply do what the people demand. Congratulations, my fellow Boomers, you've convinced the Left of this nonsense over the last 40 years--and what you see before you is the result.

This is a very interesting discussion.

The Republicans solved all the problems that had to be solved in the CW Crisis. The slaves where freed, the political power of the southern Planter elites was broken, and industrialism fully unleashed. The Homestead Act was the CW Crisis' equivalent of Social Security.

Originally Posted by ASB65

I have never been able to understand the whole Rick Perry thing down here. It truly boogles the mind and I have no logical explanation for it. Oh here was one of the truly ironic parts of the debate. Rick Perry, of all people, was the one who brought up and attacked corporate cronyism...Rick Perry...LOL... He is probably the most guilty one of all the candidates up there on the stage of that. He takes money left and right from the corporate lobbyist, then turns around and gives these companies huge government contracts or gives their spouses and friends government jobs. And he doesn't even try to hide it. We could build a whole Disney fantasy land theme park down here around him.

Perry makes W look intelligent and well-spoken by comparison.

Originally Posted by KaiserD2

They are preaching austerity within a much more generous framework.

It is very possible that we are seeing the end of the European welfare state in much of Europe.

Today a Greek working in a US university advocates dumping the Euro in the NY Times.

This is a logical outcome, but would hardly mean the end of austerity. The entire Greek banking system will immediately collapse. It will mean years of poverty and low growth. ( Of course, sticking with the Euro might mean the same thing. They do not have any good choices.)

The real problem is that the Greeks do not have the political will to make the real reforms needed in regulation and labor markets that are needed. Greece has the most restrictive labor laws in Europe (and thats saying something). They also have the greatest employment anxiety as if you ever lose your job, it is unlikely you will every find another one. They don't seem to be able to make the connection between these two facts.

If I were Greek, I would be packing my bags.

James50

Originally Posted by James50

It is very possible that we are seeing the end of the European welfare state in much of Europe.


This is a logical outcome, but would hardly mean the end of austerity. The entire Greek banking system will immediately collapse. It will mean years of poverty and low growth. ( Of course, sticking with the Euro might mean the same thing. They do not have any good choices.)

The real problem is that the Greeks do not have the political will to make the real reforms needed in regulation and labor markets that are needed. Greece has the most restrictive labor laws in Europe (and thats saying something). They also have the greatest employment anxiety as if you ever lose your job, it is unlikely you will every find another one. They don't seem to be able to make the connection between these two facts.

If I were Greek, I would be packing my bags.

James50

They also like the "good life" way too much. Not exactly a protestant work ethic in place there (or much of southern Europe).

Originally Posted by KaiserD2

James, looking at those last posts of yours. . .I just have to say this.

You are right, I think, that you would be right at home as a British Tory or a German Christian Democrat. They represent Eisenhower Republican orthodoxy, in which I think you believe. What I simply can't understand is the refusal of a man of your intelligence to see that such views have nothing to do with those of the Republican base anymore. Obama is much closer to you than any of the Republican candidates except perhaps Romney, yet you persist in blaming him for this mess. (And arguing that the Republicans would have signed on to a Simpson-Bowles deal instead of reflexively opposing anything Obama put forward. Again: you would have welcomed it, but they would not.) I won't belabor this any further, but I just don't get it.

I can't speak for James, nor do I want to. James is perfectly capable of speaking for himself. Although I will say this. When I read many of James's thoughts I hear my husband's voice. My husband is very much the old fashioned conservative type. (Well, except for on the social issues. He is liberal on things like abortion and gay rights. He doesn't go along with the Christian coalition on that stuff.) But as my husband has been watching these people like Cain, Perry & Bachman, he is just shaking his head. He thinks they have all lost their minds. And I say to him, "Honey, the Republican party is not what you have known most of your life. They have morphed into something that would be unrecognizable to the Eisenhowers and (or even the Reagans) of old time conservatives Republicans.

He doesn't blame of Obama for the economy but he doesn't think the stimulus was handled well. He was really hoping for money to go infrastructure as he felt would help bring more jobs. He is also unhappy with the health care bill, because felt it didn't really fix the problem and it needs more work. But he isn't on board with a national run healthcare system either. He would like to see the health care insurance monopolies in the states broken up as a first step.

I doubt he will vote Democratic though and he has no intention of voting for any these tea party people. So he will probably just sit the next election out. And I have a feeling, he won't be the only Republican who won't be showing up at the voting booth next November. If the Republicans continue down the road they are going with all these extremist candidates, they will continue to lose more and more of their base and will only be able to hold on to the wingnuts.

Originally Posted by TeddyR

They also like the "good life" way too much. Not exactly a protestant work ethic in place there (or much of southern Europe).

That's been inherent in their culture for thousands of years--even before Christianity. I doubt it'll ever drastically change.

~Chas'88

Originally Posted by Odin

The Republicans solved all the problems that had to be solved in the CW Crisis. The slaves where freed, the political power of the southern Planter elites was broken, and industrialism fully unleashed. The Homestead Act was the CW Crisis' equivalent of Social Security.

The political power of the southern elites was not broken. This idea of "solving the problems that had to be solved" is pure tautology.

Originally Posted by KaiserD2

The political power of the southern elites was not broken. This idea of "solving the problems that had to be solved" is pure tautology.

Agreed. Slavery was ended & but the hierarchy was easily reverted after Reconstruction was finished.

~Chas'88

Originally Posted by Chas'88

Agreed. Slavery was ended & but the hierarchy was easily reverted after Reconstruction was finished.

~Chas'88

A prime example of unintended consequences. During Reconstruction, freedmen got real political power and economic freedom. When that ended, the agrarian Old Order was able to exploit an economic order just short of slavery to be Constitutionally lawful.

Originally Posted by KaiserD2

The great strength of S & H, in my opinion, was that they realized that historical change is brought about not simply by economics, not by impersonal historical forces, but by men and women--especially Prophets entering elderhood.

A generation IS an impersonal force. The idea that their theory upholds the idea of INDIVIDUALS creating history represents a complete misunderstanding of it.

Originally Posted by KaiserD2

The political power of the southern elites was not broken.

Prior to the Civil War, the southern planter elite was capable of preventing the abolition of slavery and also of preventing full-scale government investment into industrialization. DURING the Civil War, with the South no longer represented in Congress, the Republicans pushed through a lot of measures including the intercontinental railroad, tariff reformation, banking bills, and other things designed to promote industry that the Democrats based in the South had been blocking up to that time. AFTER the Civil War, the domination by industry-friendly politicians continued, and the entire ground of discussion shifted to questions of workers' rights when again a progressive faction arose during the Missionary Awakening. So what you say here is not true. The political power of the southern planters WAS broken on a national scale.

The only sense in which what you say is true, which is what Chas was referring to, is that the planter class retained enough influence to prevent complete defeat on racial issues. That's undeniable but doesn't refute what Odin was saying.

This idea of "solving the problems that had to be solved" is pure tautology.

Not if you can explain what those problems were and why they had to be solved. Which we can.