Originally Posted by
jamesdglick
This isn't specifically S&H generational theory, but it was inspired by the presidential list in the Appendix of "Generations":
A list of the ages of the 1st term, non-incumbent winners on election day since 1932 (DOB; Election Day):
Reagan 69 yrs, 8 mos, 29 days (b. 6 FEB 1911) (4 NOV 1980)
[GHW] Bush 64 yrs, 4 mos, 21 days (b. 12 JUN 1924) (2 NOV 1988)
Ike 62 yrs, 0 mos, 21 days (b. 14 OCT 1890) (4 NOV 1952)
Nixon 55 yrs, 9 mos, 27 days (b. 9 JAN 1913) (5 NOV 1968)
[GW] Bush 54 yrs, 3 mos, 29 days (b. 6 JUL 1946) (4 NOV 2000)
Carter 52 yrs, 1 mo, 1 day (b. 1 OCT 1924) (2 NOV 1976)
FDR 50 yrs, 9 mos, 1 day (b. 30 JAN 1882) (1 NOV 1932)
Clinton 46 yrs, 2 mos, 15 days (b. 19 AUG 1946) (3 NOV 1992)
JFK 43 yrs, 6 mos, 3 days (b. 29 MAY 1917) (1 NOV 1960)
Truman, LBJ, and Ford aren't included, since their "1st term" came upon taking office to complete their POTUS's term; when they ran for president, they were already incumbents (and Ford lost anyway).
The "R's" are all of the old guys, the "D's" are all of the young guys.
A long time ago, I remember it being said that Americans vote for old "R's" & young "D's", but I haven't heard it recently.
DOBs for candidates on election day, 4 NOV 2008:
Paul 73 yrs, 2 mos, 15 days (b. 20 AUG 1935)
McCain 72 yrs, 2 mos, 6 days (b. 29 AUG 1936)
Thompson 66 yrs, 2 mos, 16 days (b. 19 AUG 1942)
Giuliani 64 yrs, 5 mos, 7 days (b. 28 MAY 1944)
Kucinich 62 yrs, 0 mos, 27 days (b. 8 OCT 1946)
Romney 61 yrs, 7 mos, 23 days (b. 12 MAR 1947)
Clinton 61 yrs, 0 mos, 9 days (26 OCT 1947)
Richardson 60 yrs, 11 mos, 20 days (b. 15 NOV 1947)
Hunter 60 yrs, 5 mos, 4 days (b. 31 MAY 1948)
Edwards 55 yrs, 4 mos, 25 days (b. 10 JUN 1953)
Huckabee 53 yrs, 2 mos, 11 days (b. 24 AUG 1955)
Obama 47 yrs, 3 mos, 0 days (b. 4 AUG 1961)
FWIW, according to this pattern, the "R's" are all easily "old" enough, except Huckabee; if elected, [he] would be the youngest "R" on the list, but still older than any of the "D's".
Obama, far from being "too young", is actually center-mass to be elected as a "D"; Edwards might actually be a bit too "old" (even tho' he looks like he's 12), while the other "D's" are "dinosaurs".
I don't know how race or sex might play on this. Blacks don't normally live as long as whites (making Obama slightly "older"), while women usually live longer than men (making Clinton "younger"); on the other hand, women might get gigged for age more than men (making Clinton"older").