Democrats retaking the House is a good bet given the impact of the presidential election and the nation's mood. Preserving a majority in the Senate is also very possible, but actually increasing Democratic seats in the Senate would take something extraordinary, given the number of currently Democratic versus Republican seats up for reelection this year.
"And what rough beast, its hour come round at last, slouches toward Bethlehem to be born?"
My blog: https://brianrushwriter.wordpress.com/
The Order Master (volume one of Refuge), a science fantasy. Amazon link: http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00GZZWEAS
Smashwords link: https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/382903
H-m-m-m. Remember, these are Republicans. Given that, the group would be called the Organization to ReElect Obama, or OREO.Originally Posted by The Grey Badger
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.
A Republican, Mark Kirk, won Obama's seat for the rest of the term in IL. He's got another 2 years. He's fairly moderate. He's recovering from a stroke (at age 52!)
Badge', my initial thought for the reaction of The Last Man was:
"Oh great, my imaginary-enemy has once again rudely "dropped-in" for some friendly little "chit-chat"! <shudder!>
Prince
PS: Virtual-s'more? I seem to have mis-placed my virtual-fire and virtual-stick?
Last edited by princeofcats67; 02-28-2012 at 06:24 PM.
I Am A Child of God/Nature/The Universe
I Think Globally and Act Individually(and possibly, voluntarily join-together with Others)
I Pray for World Peace & I Choose Less-Just Say: "NO!, Thank You."
Been covered -
http://www.fourthturning.com/forum/s...580#post423580
- but I would sure like to see it be Paul to run against Obama! It would be almost as fun as with Santorum... and, with the same end result Blow out.
"The Devil enters the prompter's box and the play is ready to start" - R. Service
“It’s not tax money. The banks have accounts with the Fed … so, to lend to a bank, we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed. It’s much more akin to printing money.” - B.Bernanke
"Keep your filthy hands off my guns while I decide what you can & can't do with your uterus" - Sarah Silverman
If you meet a magic pony on the road, kill it. - Playwrite
Moderate Republican Olympia Snowe of Maine will not seek re-election. The Democrats are favored to pick up the seat.
I took a lot of heat two or three years ago from people claiming the Tea Party was just "astroturf." Anybody want to recant?
David Kaiser '47
My blog: History Unfolding
My book: The Road to Dallas: The Assassination of John F. Kennedy
And former candidate John Huntsman pointed out last night on Charlie Rose, as have many others, that our higher education system in America is the best in the world, to which young people come from all over the world. And it's a big reason for our past and future economic and innovative leadership.
A president Santorum would cut into that leadership, with the excuse that colleges produce liberals. Of course they do; liberals are what they are because they are well-informed and educated. Something many Republicans greatly fear and resist.
It's remarkable in that Rasmussen shows Barack Obama defeating both Romney and Santorum in Virginia as in 2008.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...ntial_election
The last Presidential elections in which the Democratic nominee won Virginia were 2008, 1964, and 1948. Virginia has usually been a Republican state in Presidential elections since 1928 except in D blowouts; it hasn't voted for a Democratic nominee who lost the overall Presidential election since 1924. How long ago was that? Virginia still had some Confederate war veterans around age 80 in those days. It's hard to see how the Republicans win the Presidency without Virginia.
Rasmussen uses a "likely voter" screen that is itself suspect. A "likely voter" screen that rejects the idea that someone turning 18 this year might see voting as a rite of passage but overestimates the likelihood that someone who hasn't missed a vote in 60 years will vote by underestimating the likelihood of that habitual voter dying. Such a habitual voter would be in the eighties at the least.
A poll commissioned by Rasmussen from FoX Propaganda Channel (which has recently been playing up oil prices as a reason for Americans voting for someone who might give "relief at the pump" in return for letting Big Oil set the policies of energy and transportation) could easily be a push poll. I don't know what preliminary questions are on the poll that Weave cites, but if they begin with "Do you like President Obama's high gas prices?" and then "Would you vote for someone who can promise lower prices by turning against radical environmentalists?" one has a completely-unreliable push poll.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."
― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters
The educational policy of Republicans would be to transform colleges either into technical and business schools that churn out obedient robots -- or Fundamentalist havens. Such is the sort of educational order that might cause American youth who have curiosity and intellectual curiosity to go abroad for education with a resulting brain drain as many of them decide to stay in... Sweden?
It's not that long ago that many colleges were best understood as playgrounds for young adults of privileged backgrounds, which probably explains why the "college-educated" used to be a reliable bloc of GOP voters. That is over.
People who want a nation of flesh robots deserve to be in the trash-heap of history. We need a public that can make ethical decisions instead of one that accepts any half-baked propaganda that happens to be "official" or "from above" (whether a preacher who says "Believe it or burn!" or an employer who insists that all employees vote on behalf of his right-wing favorites if they want to stay employed).
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."
― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters
Todays Gallup Matchup- Romney 50% Obama 46%
Obama 43% approval/50% disapproval
At this point in 1980 Carter was beating Reagan....
Gallup and Rasmussen have been pretty accurate over the last several elections...
Do you have any evidence that Rasmussen is "push polling"? His poll was very accurate in 2004, 2008 and 2010
Gallup is showing similiar results...today Romney 50% Obama 46%
Obama 43% approval 50% Disapproval
As far as Fox "playing up" gas prices. Ive seen reports on many networks. No need to play them up. In the last 2 weeks they have gone up 30 cents where I live....everyone is talking about it.
The damage to the economy will begin showing up in a few months. Less discretionary spending, layoffs, slower GDP growth and inflation....
But they are always the ones most favorable to Republicans and conservatives, always.
I have no doubt gas prices are hurting Obama's approval numbers. The poll average still places Obama 5 points ahead of Romney though.
Of course, disapproving or voting against Obama because of rising gas prices is the very definition of stupid. Yeah, solve the gas prices problem by voting for the folks who caused it. Yeah, That'll work!
Nobody denies that high gas prices damage the overall economy and will continue to do so until America is off its addiction to petroleum as energy. We saw this in 2008, and it wasn't pretty for then-President Bush or for the McCain-Palin candidacy. I don't deny that "everyone is talking about it". So we vastly reduce recreational use of motor vehicles, car-pool more, use public transportation, recycle and reuse -- and see solar panels and wind-powered generators go up.
Are you willing to kiss up to the thug rulers of Iran to get reductions in oil prices? That is the only way to get gas prices in the vicinity of $3 a gallon or less. Where is your patriotism?
The Rasmussen poll is for FoX Propaganda Channel which alone has been running with this pitch. Independent polls by Rasmussen are far more reliable. If I am not absolutely certain that Rasmussen used a push poll this time, I can understand few other ways in which such a result could happen.
This relates to tensions between Iran and the rest of the world... and I can imagine even worse things than $8-a-gallon gasoline -- like some city being nuked because nutty leaders in Iran want that city nuked. Energy consumption has not been increasing, and drilling is up. Speculative run-ups in petroleum prices have a tendency to collapse. By the way -- I own shares in a mutual fund that drips in oil... a partial hedge for oil prices. It does wonders for keeping my blood pressure from going through the roof.
....
If you wonder why I hadn't posted for three days, it is because I have been on a train ride from San Francisco to Chicago after driving a car out to the West Coast. It takes less time than going by car, I need not dodge maniac drivers who if they (and I) are fortunate get pulled over by a state trooper instead of crashing, I miss the banal tourist-trap and interchange cultures, and I am satisfied that I am using the "greenest" form of transportation except for sailing. Amtrak cars have more legroom than the typical jetliner unless one pays dearly to travel first-class... and passengers are friendly, talkative, and trustworthy. I understand that anyone who rides a commercial bus must watch his back. I got plenty of pictures. One must move around some during the trip... maybe I can tell you about my "Mile High" jumping jacks.
That is my first such trip, and it won't be my last.
Last edited by pbrower2a; 02-29-2012 at 03:41 PM.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."
― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters
Rasmussen consistently favors the Republicans by several percentage points.
David Kaiser '47
My blog: History Unfolding
My book: The Road to Dallas: The Assassination of John F. Kennedy
Iran is a concern as long as they are backed by Russia and China. The energy problem could have been mitigated by building nuclear power plants as France has done. Of course solar will become the long term energy solution, but nuclear could help while the solar technology matures. I would like to see the USA free from the Middle East oil suppliers.
I don't see any evidence for your assertion about the educational policy of the Republicans. What is the basis for your claims? I don't know anyone with the views you have expressed and we certainly need a public that can make ethical decisions.
That was going to be my answer too.....Eve
... and its a love story where the snake is a good guy.
It appears that tracking the Paul campaign is going to be useless from this point on in telling if the younger Republicans (there are a few, right? ) are going to pull American conservativism in a more libertarian direction. I write this because it appears that the Paul campaign has apparently become nothing more than an adjunct for the Romney campaign. He is allowing himself to be used to blunt attacks by Santorum and/or Gingrich on Romney. It's hard for a movement to have a leader when the presumed leader is a willing tool of the establishment.
Iran needs to be persuaded that it does not need either nuclear power OR nuclear weapons. Nuclear power is a dangerous dead end. Solar is available now, and should be ramped up now. Relying on nuclear just allows people to put off acting on solar. Japan is a warning and a chance to make the right move NOW. All the money and energy put into more nucs could be spent on more solar plants and solar panels.
Just imagine if solar panels were required on all buildings. Just imagine if we had solar power plants in the deserts. And wind power in the plains. What energy crisis? We have a political crisis.
Can you imagine the kind of person who would vote for a guy who says:
a) the speech by JFK on the separation of church and state "makes me want to throw up."
b) Obama saying everyone should be able to go to college shows that he is "a snob."
Even 30% in CA seems a lot....
Again, try to put it into perspective -
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/electi...chart_mode=new
I would bet that you're one of those that with every snow flake comes proof of no global warming. I'm pretty sure the correlation between global deniers and GOP hopefuls is very very high.
"The Devil enters the prompter's box and the play is ready to start" - R. Service
“It’s not tax money. The banks have accounts with the Fed … so, to lend to a bank, we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed. It’s much more akin to printing money.” - B.Bernanke
"Keep your filthy hands off my guns while I decide what you can & can't do with your uterus" - Sarah Silverman
If you meet a magic pony on the road, kill it. - Playwrite
From the very best in the business -
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...rmed-strongly/
Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly
By NATE SILVER
Funny how gleeful you all get from the misery of higher gas prices.
What are you going to do when gas/oil prices collapse, cry crocodile tears for gas station owners?
Do you know what China and India are paying Iran for oil? Do you think it is anywhere near open market prices?
Iran's elections are this Friday; Russian elections are this Sunday. Then it’s back to business. Want to bet on where oil/gas prices are headed?
Last edited by playwrite; 02-29-2012 at 02:38 PM.
"The Devil enters the prompter's box and the play is ready to start" - R. Service
“It’s not tax money. The banks have accounts with the Fed … so, to lend to a bank, we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed. It’s much more akin to printing money.” - B.Bernanke
"Keep your filthy hands off my guns while I decide what you can & can't do with your uterus" - Sarah Silverman
If you meet a magic pony on the road, kill it. - Playwrite
Iran needs to be persuaded, but Russia 'must' be involved. The problem is that Russia shows no sign of any interest in doing anything constructive. And we will continue to be in political crisis unless a majority can be persuaded to be reasonable and cooperate. Not much hope for this either.
I trust the Chinese and Russians on nuclear proliferation more than I trust them on anything else. Those who most recently developed a nuke want to be the last. The old Soviet Union was a pushover for anti-proliferation treaties because the Soviet Union didn't want countries like Poland and East Germany to have nukes. It was extremely unwise for Nicolae Ceausescu to make jokes about "Agent U-235" (U-235 being the fissile isotope of uranium suitable for atom bombs) that Mikhail Gorbachev didn't find humorous. Nuclear power (or solar power -- much of Iran is desert suitable for solar farms) for generation of electricity in Iran means that more Iranian oil can reach world markets. Nuclear power does not create nukes unless through breeder reactors that can be supervised by outsiders. The hazard for a peaceful Iranian nuclear program is seismic risk.
The Russians are going to show as much tolerance for an Iranian nuke program as they showed for an Iraqi nuke program -- none.
The risks of nuclear power include bad design (Chernobyl), general incompetence (Three Mile Island), and risks of earthquakes and tsunamis (Fukushima and Tokai). If done well, they are not environmental disasters. Some of the cooling water of a Florida nuclear power plant is a haven for the endangered American crocodile, and if a jurisdiction doesn't want the filthy air of refineries, then nuclear power plants may be a solution. Maybe states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio that have copious water and no seismic risk yet ravaged rust-belt economies could solve some of their economic distress with the export of nuclear-generated power. Coal mines, oil wells (especially offshore drilling rigs), and oil refineries are dangerous workplaces as it is. Pick your poison carefully.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."
― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters
I can only imagine how many of the Paul voters will vote in November. Bereft of choices to the Left of President Obama on military and foreign policy and with a Republican sure to oppose LGBT rights, what will they have left? Gary Johnson could run as an unusually-strong Third Party candidate as a Libertarian, and he would surely draw away more R than D votes.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."
― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters
