I was surprised by Romney's choice of Ryan. It is pretty clear that Ryan was the worst choice electorally. With just about any else on the short list, Romney would likely end up with more votes come November. Not only that, but after months of of failing to provide any information on who he is or what he plans to do if elected, by selecting Ryan he has now revealed an agenda.
So I was puzzled. It seemed by picking Ryan, Romney was indifferent to the impact this choice has on his chances of victory. Presidential candidates almost always pick Veeps for their effects on the campaign. After thinking about it I concluded that Romney hasn't changed his strategy at all. Romney's stategy has always been to win by default when an enraged electorate hurls Obama from office for incompetence. To aid this effort Romney tired to show a a smooth and featureless exterior so as to minimize the effectiveness of attacks against him, while mounting an all-out offensive against Obama's record.
Attacks on him have made a small dent in his popularity, while his attacks have been ineffective. Studying the data, Romney may have concluded that his campaign isn't really going to have any effect on the outcome of this election. So it doesn't matter who he chooses for Veep. If he wins it will be up to external forces beyond his campaigns control. If the economy sours Romney wins, if it does not he loses.
So now the objective for a Veep selection is not how it impacts Romney's electoral chances, but how it affects Romney after the election. Romney himself has already given reasons for how Ryan provides benefits were he to win the election. But Ryan is also a superior choice should Romney lose. In the event of his defeat, Romney has given the party its 2016 nominee. Unlike Palin, whose star has since faded, after a Romney defeat Ryan will go back to Congress where he will continue to grow in stature by leading the opposition to Obama in his second term plus have time to burnish his religious/social conservative cred. Ryan will get the nomination easily, like Bush did and enjoy a unified party from the start. He will be able to run against Obama without having the face the formidable Obama machine or the politician himself. Surely Ryan would be a better candidate for 2016 than someone like Bob Portman.
By selecting Ryan, Romney positions himself better for the future, win or lose.
OMG - Paul Ryan in 2016 vs. either Andrew Cuomo or Bob Casey?
That would be an even worse mismatch than any of Jon Jones' UFC light heavyweight title defenses.