Originally Posted by B Butler

You (Weave) are touching on a common theme I've been seeing on this thread at least since the conventions. People want to be convinced of what they already believe in. Republicans are trumpeting about every poll that leans Republican while calling other polls biased, while the Democrats are no different except in polarity. Democrats see their candidates performance in the polls more positively than the Republicans, while the Republicans see it the other way.

The discussion seems to me little different from the main stream media coverage, shunning issues, delving into polls, the latest sound bytes and emotion.

Which is why I've had so little enthusiasm for joining the exercise.

Ain't it the truth?


All that anyone can look for is changes and patterns.

No matter how the 2012 election turns out, America is going tho be as politically polarized as ever with a near-half of the electorate showing contempt for the result. This isn't 1960 all over, when ideological differences weren't so severe and partisan. President Obama is going to lose some states by more than 20% while willing some by 20%. So will Mitt Romney.

Originally Posted by pbrower2a

Ain't it the truth?


All that anyone can look for is changes and patterns.

No matter how the 2012 election turns out, America is going to be as politically polarized as ever with a near-half of the electorate showing contempt for the result. This isn't 1960 all over, when ideological differences weren't so severe and partisan. President Obama is going to lose some states by more than 20% while winning some by 20%. So will Mitt Romney.

Correct.

Florida is certainly tilting Romney right now. But the fluctuations have been so continuous there that it means little at this point.

Originally Posted by Chas'88

Honestly, I didn't like the substance of what Ryan had to say, and I didn't like the attitude that Biden copped at moments. I liked the spirited debate, but they both lost out on points for me.

~Chas'88

I liked Biden's attitude, although it's true it might turn off some people. He was just being himself, not posturing; and he was giving the Republican Ryan and his policies the total ridicule that they so richly deserve. Biden's reaction to them is just an authentic and natural response to reality.

Now that most of the polls are post-debate (the Romney/Obama one), there is a clear break towards Romney in the polls. He leads the RCP national average by 1 point. In state polls:

- Romney is widening his lead in "battleground states" where he already led (MO, NC).
- He's taken the lead in two states (FL, CO).
- Obama's lead has dropped to less than 1 point (basically tied) in VA and NH.
- Obama's lead has dropped to less than 2 points in OH and NV.

All of the above would translate into a big Romney win if he carried them. But there is more:

- Obama's lead in WI has dropped from almost 8 points down to 2.3
- Obama's lead in MI has dropped from 10 points down to 3.7.
- Although it has no bearing on the electoral vote outcome, Romney got an 8 point bounce in CA, which translates into about 3 million votes.

I am certain that there is inaccurate weighting being used for turnout and party ID in most of the polls, in the Democrats' favor. We also know that people undecided late in an election usually break for the challenger. Back in 2010, the "mainstream" media coverage, analysis and polls were split between those who thought the Democrats could hold on to the House, and those who thought the Republicans would just barely get the majority. It turned out the Republicans won 63 seats, the biggest victory in 80 years. I'm not saying for sure that's happening this time. The polls tend to be more reliable for presidential races. But when you combine all of it together, I come to this conclusion: If a poll is tied (or essentially tied), it means Romney is winning. If he holds a clear lead, it means he's winning big. The size of the pro-Obama skew in the polls is the only thing I'm not sure about. That it exists, I am certain. How far does Obama have to be ahead in order to actually be winning? That's the question. It'll be answerable after the election.

Originally Posted by The Rani

Funny thing, a few minutes after I typed that, Ryan made the "let's not talk over each other" comment. So at least he saw what was happening.
I'm against everything that guy stands for, but I have to admit that he's a smart little shit.

I turned the debate off shortly thereafter ... way too much like any other screaming head cable news show.
Reinforced my decision to vote third party.

Of course, I "like" the "screaming," so I didn't turn it off!

Otherwise I agree with your comments. Smart little twit indeed.

Originally Posted by JustPassingThrough

Now that most of the polls are post-debate (the Romney/Obama one), there is a clear break towards Romney in the polls. He leads the RCP national average by 1 point. In state polls:

- Romney is widening his lead in "battleground states" where he already led (MO, NC).
- He's taken the lead in two states (FL, CO).
- Obama's lead has dropped to less than 1 point (basically tied) in VA and NH.
- Obama's lead has dropped to less than 2 points in OH and NV.

All of the above would translate into a big Romney win if he carried them. But there is more:

- Obama's lead in WI has dropped from almost 8 points down to 2.3
- Obama's lead in MI has dropped from 10 points down to 3.7.
- Although it has no bearing on the electoral vote outcome, Romney got an 8 point bounce in CA, which translates into about 3 million votes.

Correct, except I don't think Romney got a detectable CA "bounce" from the 1st debate. What polls there are have not changed much recently.

I like this summary:

Tonight Democrats got the show they wanted—and President Obama may have gotten the boost he needed.

http://www.tnr.com/blog/plank/108502...ercent-policy#

Appearing in Danville, Kentucky on Thursday night, Vice President Joe Biden gave one of the most aggressive, passionate, and substantive debate performances I can recall. I don’t know how it played with the public as a whole and I don’t imagine it influenced swing voters one way or the other. If I had to bet, the media will spend at least as much discussing Biden’s facial expressions as they will dissecting the exchange over Iran.

But on the domestic policy questions at the heart of this campaign—which also happen to be the issues I know best—Biden made the essential points that President Obama failed to convey last week. And Biden did so in a way sure to fire up liberals, whose disappointment over last week’s performance appears to have been a significant factor in Obama’s sliding poll numbers.

On taxes, Biden made it clear that Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan are not being honest about their plan—that promises to lower rates by 20 percent, reduce taxes on the middle class, and find deductions to offset the whole cost are mathematically implausible. In so doing, he had help from moderator Martha Raddatz, who asked specific, tough questions to both sides—and who on this particular issue pressed Ryan to provide the details that, ultimately, he couldn’t.

On Medicare, Biden explained what the Romney-Ryan Medicare plan would mean for retirees—that it would jeopardize the guarantee of benefits that the program has provided since its creation in 1965. Biden also reminded voters about the 2011 Ryan Medicare plan, which would have left the typical senior individually responsible for two-thirds of his or her medical costs. Ryan noted that he and Romney had since endorsed less extreme plans. Biden didn’t dispute that, but he asked, rightly, why voters should trust them when they were endorsing such dramatic and dangerous changes less than a year ago.

On the economy, Biden challenged Ryan's account of the Recovery Act. He pointed out that unemployment today is slightly lower than it was when Obama took office—and much lower than it was at the peak of recession, before Obama's policies had a chance to take effect.

Biden had his weak moments, for sure. Based on my admittedly unspecialized knowledge of foreign policy, it sounded like he was dodging the first question about intelligence failures before the killings in Benghazi. Biden’s characterization of conditions in Afghanistan also seemed too sanguine. And Ryan had moments that will please his supporters as much as Biden's moments satisfied his. Looking directly into the camera, a tactic both men used, Ryan made what may be their most effective argument on taxes—that Democrats will eventually raise middle class taxes, even if they promise not to do so. (For the record, I don’t think they will—and I wish they would!)

Biden was pugnacious, interrupting frequently, and at times openly dismissive of Ryan. I imagine that will annoy a lot of voters. But, oh, Biden had some great liners. When Ryan said “sometimes the words don't come out of your mouth the right way,” referring to Biden’s penchants for gaffes, Biden said “but I always say what I mean.” In an exchange about taxes, Biden let loose about the 47 percent: "My friend recently, in a speech in Washington, said 30 percent of the American people are takers. These people are my mom and dad, the people I grew up with, my neighbors. They pay more effective tax than Governor Romney pays in his federal income tax."

But if one moment stuck with me, it was an exchange a few minutes later. In an attempt to show that Romney has compassion, Ryan talked about Romney’s personal generosity—including his efforts to help a needy family in Massachusetts. Romney and Ryan have been doing this a lot lately: Telling humanizing stories about Romney to prove that he cares about all Americans, not just the wealthy.

Biden was ready for it. The issue for voters, Biden said, is not how Romney treats people individually. It's how he'd treat them as president, via the policies he'd pursue:

"Stop talking about how you care about people. Show me something. Show me a policy. Show me a policy where you take responsibility."

The Romney-Ryan agenda would entail huge cuts to programs on which the middle class, as well as the poor, rely—while giving large tax cuts to the rich. They’ve tried to hide that fact by disguising their proposals, refusing to provide policy details, or distracting the public with heartwarming stories. On Thursday night, Biden was having none of it.

Your average voter may not have noticed. But this average policy wonk sure did.

Interesting news from Daily Kos:

Eric, President Obama has a huge lead in Ohio among people who have already voted:

President Obama leads Mitt Romney by 20% among Ohioans who have already voted, according to a Survey USA poll conducted from October 5-8.

63% of Ohioans who have already voted chose President Obama, according to an NBC News poll conducted from October 7-9.
This is why Republicans are trying to restrict early voting in Ohio and other states around the country. They know our voter turnout programs are better than their voter turnout programs, and that we can use early voting to build up a big lead in actual votes.

Gov. Scott of FL is also trying the tactic which worked in 2000: taking registered Democrats off the voting rolls.

Originally Posted by Chas'88

Honestly, I didn't like the substance of what Ryan had to say, and I didn't like the attitude that Biden copped at moments. I liked the spirited debate, but they both lost out on points for me.

~Chas'88

Do you score it on points or points made? On points made, Ryan made a good point of noting the lack of a coherent plan from the Obama team, then weaseled on his own. Biden counter-punched effectively, by having 30 years of expereince to draw on (e.g. "... I was in the room when ..."). No one's mind was changed on substance. I doubt anyone got swayed on style either. It was good damage control for the Dems. Note: the Veep gets special dispensation to be a bit nasty, so Biden did what he was expected to do.

Originally Posted by pbrower2a

Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan are worse-than-average liars in American politics.

It's cute of you to say so, but I'd say they lie at least as well as any other guys.

Originally Posted by Eric the Green

Interesting news from Daily Kos:

Eric, President Obama has a huge lead in Ohio among people who have already voted:

President Obama leads Mitt Romney by 20% among Ohioans who have already voted, according to a Survey USA poll conducted from October 5-8.

63% of Ohioans who have already voted chose President Obama, according to an NBC News poll conducted from October 7-9.
This is why Republicans are trying to restrict early voting in Ohio and other states around the country. They know our voter turnout programs are better than their voter turnout programs, and that we can use early voting to build up a big lead in actual votes.

Gov. Scott of FL is also tying the tactic which worked in 2000: taking registered Democrats off the voting rolls.

It gives you a slight edge in propaganda but that's about it.

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

OK, that didn't happen, so now what do you think?

Ryan showed that he was able to take some hits and still hold his own. Biden showed that he's still a joke.

This was the debate I wanted to see 4 years ago. Unfortunately, Biden had to take it easy on Palin to not look like a chauvinist for pounding her into dust. I will give props to the Republicans for not making that mistake again. Personally, I liked Biden's dickishness, I would have liked to see a bit of it from Ryan as well, he was just too mechanical. The moderator certainly did a hell of a lot better than the last one. Though, I hate the idea of moderators anyway, just have an open debate, if it goes into the wee hours of the morning, so be it. If it gets so heated and the candidates start punching each other in the crotch, even better.

Biden rallied the Democratic base.

That needed to happen. No one is going to fight for a ticket that won't stand up for its people.

And as far as being nice in a debate goes, well, it's not easy to sit across the desk from someone and call them on their "malarkey."

Yet regardless of who wins the election America isn;t goong to be looking for sweet and nice if God forbid we have another 911 type event.

Sometime you gotta be hard.

Awesome Sauce. An Undecided Voter Watches the Vice-Presidential Debate

Originally Posted by Aldaris

This was the debate I wanted to see 4 years ago. Unfortunately, Biden had to take it easy on Palin to not look like a chauvinist for pounding her into dust. I will give props to the Republicans for not making that mistake again. Personally, I liked Biden's dickishness, I would have liked to see a bit of it from Ryan as well, he was just too mechanical. The moderator certainly did a hell of a lot better than the last one. Though, I hate the idea of moderators anyway, just have an open debate, if it goes into the wee hours of the morning, so be it. If it gets so heated and the candidates start punching each other in the crotch, even better.

Bring back Lincoln-Douglas style!

Although that wasn't a presidential but senatorial.

Originally Posted by The Rani

I said "shit" not "twit." As in asshole Xer (which coming from another Xer is actually a semi-compliment.) As in I might not agree with you but I still respect you.
As for the screaming part, I'll just say that it isn't surprising to see which forum members liked Biden's attitude and leave it at that.

I guess I just don't like typing the dirty word.

Originally Posted by Classic-X'er

Ryan showed that he was able to take some hits and still hold his own. Biden showed that he's still a joke.

No, he showed that he can laugh. Not quite the same thing. Anyone who actually listened knows Biden won on substance over the little right-wing wonk.

Originally Posted by Justin '77

It's cute of you to say so, but I'd say they lie at least as well as any other guys.

Why do you say that? Show me your stats and use calculus!

Originally Posted by Eric the Green

No, he showed that he can laugh. Not quite the same thing. Anyone who actually listened knows Biden won on substance over the little right-wing wonk.

Gee, I can't listen to Biden without laughing/swearing at him either.

Cenk Uygur: Paul Ryan likes fetuses so much because "he looked like one next to Biden"

http://youtu.be/A259I78xMGM

Originally Posted by annla899

Bring back Lincoln-Douglas style!

Although that wasn't a presidential but senatorial.

Agreed!

~Chas'88

Or maybe Romney Style

Or maybe this one

Cheri Honkala and Luis Rodriguez also comment on the VP Debate.

Cheri Honkala (Green Party VP Nominee) & Luis Rodriguez (Justice Party VP Nominee)

And of course here is the Libertarian Party's VP Nominee Judge James Gray's commentary: here.

~Chas'88

Originally Posted by Justin '77

It's cute of you to say so, but I'd say they lie at least as well as any other guys.

Perhaps he means liars like this guy...

Oh wait... That guy is on the team he roots for. Nevermind.

*Queue explanations for what Joe actually meant in 3... 2... 1...*