Now it's spreading to Egypt:

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=205422

This Mohamed ElBaradei has "Egypt's Kerensky" written all over him - with an Iranian-style Islamic republic, of course, being "Egypt's Lenin."

Absolutely. The Swedish press (PC) has been head over heels in what's happening in Tunisia and now in Egypt for the last couple of weeks, heralding the coming of democracy blah, blah. If officialdom is doing that, it's almost a sure sign of catastrophic outcomes. "Democracy" in islamic means aggressive fundamentalist totalitarianism. What the PC morons refuse to understand is that the secular dictatorships now being swept from the map are the only friend secular, enlightened Europe has got.
The pattern is the same in Turkey and it was the same story once upon a time in Iran.

Originally Posted by Tussilago

Absolutely. The Swedish press (PC) has been head over heels in what's happening in Tunisia and now in Egypt for the last couple of weeks, heralding the coming of democracy blah, blah. If officialdom is doing that, it's almost a sure sign of catastrophic outcomes. "Democracy" in islamic means aggressive fundamentalist totalitarianism. What the PC morons refuse to understand is that the secular dictatorships now being swept from the map are the only friend secular, enlightened Europe has got.
The pattern is the same in Turkey and it was the same story once upon a time in Iran.

Maybe if secularism were not associated with brutal, US-backed tyrants folks in the Middle East would think differently.

Cultural Modernity cannot be imposed on a society, it must develop as a result of industrialization, it is industrialization that makes secular, tolerant culture possible. It is industrialization that removes the environmental selection pressures that encourage patriarchy and authoritarian religion.

Also, democracy forces Islamist parties to become more moderate over time. Turkey's Islamists are quite mild by comparison with the rest of the Middle East.

Originally Posted by Odin

Maybe if secularism were not associated with brutal, US-backed tyrants folks in the Middle East would think differently.

I think the US has more than proved its good faith to the democratic process in Iraq. Secularism so far in Iraq is not associated with US backed tyrants. We backed Saddam at one point as a counterweight to Iran, but in my mind, what we have done since Desert Storm has more than made up for that. (Asbestos suit on).

Cultural Modernity cannot be imposed on a society, it must develop as a result of industrialization, it is industrialization that makes secular, tolerant culture possible. It is industrialization that removes the environmental selection pressures that encourage patriarchy and authoritarian religion.

Also, democracy forces Islamist parties to become more moderate over time. Turkey's Islamists are quite mild by comparison with the rest of the Middle East.

Since the French revolution, there has been a pattern of a phase of absolutism and terror after overthrowing the government. The US revolution is the exception that proves the rule. Let's hope that the Tunisians' democratic impulses will bear fruit and that they (and the Egyptians) can avoid the absolutist regimes that have bedeviled Arab growth and progress for generations.

James50

Originally Posted by Odin

Maybe if secularism were not associated with brutal, US-backed tyrants folks in the Middle East would think differently.

Good point. The US offered secularism as means for dealing with economic distress for leadership that believed that so long as it kept bellies full and either oil wells pumping, tourist visits in large numbers, or remittances from emigrant workers flowing they didn't need to concern themselves with free elections.

How long does it take for people to realize that their government is a scam?

Cultural Modernity cannot be imposed on a society, it must develop as a result of industrialization, it is industrialization that makes secular, tolerant culture possible. It is industrialization that removes the environmental selection pressures that encourage patriarchy and authoritarian religion.

But -- al-Qaeda was full of technically-trained people. There's more to the theory than economic and technical advancement. Also, the dictatorial regime in China (which has nothing to do with Islam, of course) is as entrenched as ever despite widespread technical achievements and apparent access to foreign culture (well, Beethoven OK and Orwell not). The Chinese know what line not to cross. The Tunisians and Egyptians found a mirage where the line was said to be.

Also, democracy forces Islamist parties to become more moderate over time. Turkey's Islamists are quite mild by comparison with the rest of the Middle East.

The Islamist parties will have to deliver the goods -- schooling, sanitation, transportation, and jobs. Islamists will have to recognize that Jeffersonian democracy in a majority-Islamic country implies the predominance of Islam.

Egypt has been a secular country for a very long time, whether under the decadent monarchy, Nasser, Sadat, or Mubarak.

The situation in Egypt seems to be escalating rapidly.

The government has ordered that all internet service providers cut off the web, but there are still reports coming out that the protesters own the streets.

http://audioboo.fm/boos/264390-jack-...ng-he-was-told

"We are change, wake up Egypt, raise your voice, silence kills us"

"Egypt is falling, it cannot be stopped."

Police didn't advance more than one block and kept being pushed back. Then a massive column of protesters came from the other direction and blocked in police, holding up their hands and shouting we are peaceful. [Police] repeatedly ran out of teargas and begged protesters to stop, protesters telling them to join them.
-- The Guardian Live Blog

The White House has already backed down from Hillary's earlier comments in support of the old regime. I wonder how long before we have a new country on our hands.

Although the people of Egypt and Tunisia are protesting for different reasons, it seems there is a whole lot of protesting going on around the world these days. There were huge protests in England a few weeks ago over college tuition costs. And lets not forget the protests that occurred in Greece last summer.

I heard on the news earlier today, that although this protest in Egypt is seen primarily as a political protest, people are joining in for a a variety of reasons including economic.

It seems to me that people are just fed up all over the world...period. You name it, they are pissed and asserted themselves.

The thought that crossed my mind from these events is that George Bush and the Iraq invasion is really what kicked this off. It was said at the time that the example of a functioning Arab democracy would do more than any army to change the dynamic of the Middle East. When and if, as I suspect, this revolt spreads to Iran (not Arab, of course, but Shia), we will know for sure. It may happen sooner than anyone expects. Functioning democracies in the Middle East would be good for the world and mankind. If it happens this year, it will occur simultaneously with the near final pullout of US troops from Iraq. How ironic.

My other thought: Saudi Arabia will be the last to go.

James50

Originally Posted by James50

The thought that crossed my mind from these events is that George Bush and the Iraq invasion is really what kicked this off. It was said at the time that the example of a functioning Arab democracy would do more than any army to change the dynamic of the Middle East. When and if, as I suspect, this revolt spreads to Iran (not Arab, of course, but Shia), we will know for sure. It may happen sooner than anyone expects. Functioning democracies in the Middle East would be good for the world and mankind. If it happens this year, it will occur simultaneously with the near final pullout of US troops from Iraq. How ironic.

My other thought: Saudi Arabia will be the last to go.

James50

You are being an optimist, James. Hezbollah has now just picked the new Lebanese prime minister. Hamas won the election in Palestine (and might well again.) Egypt is where the Muslim brotherhood began and it has a substantial following. In other words, we have no idea where any of this may go, and it might not be anywhere we would like to arrive. Still, it is clearly inevitable and we will have to live with any result. But the results of the pro-democracy push are extremely mixed to say the least.

By the way, a prominent Israeli historian once declared that if an Islamist regime ever came to power in either Egypt or Jordan, the West Bank would be cleansed of Palestinians on the spot.

I have a friend who is back in Egypt right now (he's Egyptian), right in the thick of things. He's been waiting for this all his life. He's culturally Islamic but not religious. Highly educated--mostly in the US.

Originally Posted by KaiserD2

You are being an optimist, James.

Yea, probably. The mistake we Americans make is thinking that these situations will resolve quickly. We invaded Iraq in 2003. Here we are 8 years later with a weak and unstable democracy in Iraq, but it is a democracy and if I were to bet, I would bet it will get stronger with time. I think it very unlikely they will go back to a Saddam figure.

If this is Egypt's moment, it will be 8-10 years before we will know the results. I am an optimist about the final result in that I think when their political evolution stabilizes again, it will be in a place with more freedom and more attention to the real problems of the country than they have now.

I am a small 'd' democrat.

James50

Originally Posted by James50

I think the US has more than proved its good faith to the democratic process in Iraq. Secularism so far in Iraq is not associated with US backed tyrants. We backed Saddam at one point as a counterweight to Iran, but in my mind, what we have done since Desert Storm has more than made up for that. (Asbestos suit on).



Since the French revolution, there has been a pattern of a phase of absolutism and terror after overthrowing the government. The US revolution is the exception that proves the rule. Let's hope that the Tunisians' democratic impulses will bear fruit and that they (and the Egyptians) can avoid the absolutist regimes that have bedeviled Arab growth and progress for generations.

James50

The initial US response after 911 was OK, but the invasion of Iraq and the nation building in Afghanistan were big mistakes and we are still paying for this. I hope for some reasonable outcome in Egypt, but I am not optimistic at this point. I agree that the US revolution turned out well and I assume that you mean that this is the exception that 'tests' the rule.

Originally Posted by James50

Yea, probably. The mistake we Americans make is thinking that these situations will resolve quickly. We invaded Iraq in 2003. Here we are 8 years later with a weak and unstable democracy in Iraq, but it is a democracy and if I were to bet, I would bet it will get stronger with time. I think it very unlikely they will go back to a Saddam figure.

If this is Egypt's moment, it will be 8-10 years before we will know the results. I am an optimist about the final result in that I think when their political evolution stabilizes again, it will be in a place with more freedom and more attention to the real problems of the country than they have now.

I am a small 'd' democrat.

James50

At this stage, the Egyptian political police has melted away. What remains is the army, and it so far refuses to do the dirty work.

Hosni Mubarak is effectively through. It is amazing that he could remain in power as long as he has. How often do we see an octogenarian leader?

Revolutions succeed not when the masses want the government out; they succeed when the armed forces are fed up and use the masses as an excuse.

There is a point made in The Fourth Turning about "technological stress". At the time, I thought it was an off-the-wall driving force. Now, I think that is what is going on. In Egypt and Greece, there is high unemployment. In those countries and the Western Civilization, there is high unemployment and small middle class. All over, the stress from more productive technology is making it harder for people to find work.

Islam is going through a renaissance. The moderates (secular) are battling the conservatives (religious) for the power in the Middle East.

The West should stay away from civil wars/rebellions and intervene before genocide happens, so we don't get another Bosnia, Darfur and Rwanda.

Neocons its not perpetually 1979.

Just some quick notes for those interested:

This isn't getting a ton of coverage in the United States, but one of the major players in the current Egyptian uprising is the group "We Are All Khaled Said". Said was a young man who was beaten to death by the police last year in broad daylight outside of a cafe. The trial of the cops was set to begin this past week until the date was changed abruptly, probably as a result of the unrest in Tunisia and elsewhere. Said has not become an Islamist martyr and is unlikely to (apparently, the cops were trying to bring him in on drug-related charges).

The big story yesterday was that the Muslim Brotherhood came off the fence in favor of the protests. Since then, the group has changed its tune -- its official line now is that only a military coup can save Egypt. That's one hell of an about face. The obvious read there is that the Muslim Brotherhood doesn't think it will benefit if the protestors win.

My Arabic isn't what it used to be, but I've watched some of the footage of the demonstrations that has made it out. None of it shows protestors using Islamist slogans or imagery. I've even seen a few signs in English that make it clear that this is a political movement aimed at taking down Mubarak. My own take on that is that the protestors want the West to know that this isn't an Islamist uprising.

Mubarak has dismissed his government, but instead of appeasing the protestors, it only intensified their demonstrations. The National Democratic Party's headquarters were completely ransacked and are still burning. (The NDP is the ruling party.)

The sun is up now and the first pictures out of Egypt today suggest that it was one hell of a night. Although things are a little quieter now, as of a few minutes ago police had opened fire on protestors at Tahrir Square. Cell phone service apparently just went back on line. First reports indicate a lot of bodies at the Cairo morgue and something like twenty burned out military vehicles around the NDP headquarters.

Make of all that what you will.

EtA: Al-Jazeera is reporting at least twenty dead in Alexandria. I haven't heard anything yet about what's going on right now in Suez City, where the police reportedly came under RPG fire.

Originally Posted by radind

The initial US response after 911 was OK, but the invasion of Iraq and the nation building in Afghanistan were big mistakes and we are still paying for this. I hope for some reasonable outcome in Egypt, but I am not optimistic at this point. I agree that the US revolution turned out well and I assume that you mean that this is the exception that 'tests' the rule.

The other problem with trying to compare this to the US revolution, is that as far anyone can tell, there is not really any one person or groups of people in charge. If Mubarak is over thrown, it's really anyone's guess you would assume control. This could turn out good, or it could turn out very bad.

The writers of the constitution were fairly organized and had a plan as to what type of government they wanted long before fighting began.

There are reports that police in plain clothes are being sent to loot places so the protesters can be blamed for the looting.

Originally Posted by ASB65

The other problem with trying to compare this to the US revolution, is that as far anyone can tell, there is not really any one person or groups of people in charge. If Mubarak is over thrown, it's really anyone's guess you would assume control. This could turn out good, or it could turn out very bad.

The writers of the constitution were fairly organized and had a plan as to what type of government they wanted long before fighting began.

Also these revolutions are happening during 2Ts.

I've noticed that revolutions lead to more stable countries when they occur in 4Ts (US, France, India, China, Mexico, Costa Rica) than 2Ts (much of West Africa and Latin America) because it leads to 80 years of downtime on the political level before the next one.

Originally Posted by Rose1992

Also these revolutions are happening during 2Ts.

I've noticed that revolutions lead to more stable countries when they occur in 4Ts (US, France, India, China, Mexico, Costa Rica) than 2Ts (much of West Africa and Latin America) because it leads to 80 years of downtime on the political level before the next one.

I'm not so positive that Tunisia, Egypt, and Algeria are in 2Tings, but then again I don't know enough about their individual histories to take a guess. Iran definitely is in a 2Ting, but the other countries I'm not so sure about.

~Chas'88

Glenn Reynolds at Instapundit has been talking for a good while about a "higher education bubble." in which we continue to raise the cost of higher education while at the same time reducing the opportunities to people with the education. What does this have to do with Tunisia?

That’s right: the education bubble popped in Tunisia.

Tunisia has a gigantic education apparatus that has earned it plaudits for years. Free university education is guaranteed to anyone who passes the government’s exams at the end of high school. As a result, an estimated 30,000 to 40,000 university graduates enter the job market every year. Fifty-seven percent of young Tunisians entering the labor market are college educated.

It turns out that creating a large class of college-educated workers is not necessarily a recipe for prosperity. Tunisia has discovered it can be a recipe for political unrest and mass unemployment. For Tunisia’s recent college graduates, the unemployment level reaches to at least 30 percent. If you count in various forms of under-employment, it’s safe to say that as many as half of Tunisia’s recent college graduates are losing out in the jobs market.

Tunisia has clearly over-invested in higher education. It is spending 7.2 percent of its GDP on education, more than any European or North American country that isn’t Denmark (which manages to spend 7.9 percent of GDP on education) or Iceland (7.5 percent). It’s a very typical malinvestment bubble: keep spending based on expected returns that don’t materialize, and suddenly find yourself with a worthless asset. Whether it’s dot com sites selling pet food, homes near Las Vegas, or really well-educated Tunisians the results are the same.

here.

James50

Originally Posted by James50

Glenn Reynolds at Instapundit has been talking for a good while about a "higher education bubble." in which we continue to raise the cost of higher education while at the same time reducing the opportunities to people with the education. What does this have to do with Tunisia?

here.

James50

That is very interesting. And it is a problem here in the US too. The cost of education has skyrocketed in the past 10 or years here. A few months ago our oldest son asked my husband how much money he made a year. My husband asked him why he wanted to know. My son said, "I was just thinking about college, but the yearly cost of college I want to go to cost about 1/2 of what you make each year. What are we going to do?"...We had no answer for him. Of course, my husband and I were already very much aware of that fact. We just shrugged our shoulders and said, "We will figure out something when the time comes."...But we already know what the answer is. Huge student loans.

And if getting a college degree gave our son a huge advantage it would be worth it. But it's not going to. A bachelors degree means the same as what a high school degree did when we graduated from high school. At this point, the people who have a bit of edge over all the others are those with master's degree. And that means more money and more student loan debt. Anyone with children in college or those of us who have children yet go, already know the parents and the kids are stuck between a rock and hard spot.

Originally Posted by ASB65

The cost of education has skyrocketed in the past 10 or years here. A few months ago our oldest son asked my husband how much money he made a year. My husband asked him why he wanted to know. My son said, "I was just thinking about college, but the yearly cost of college I want to go to cost about 1/2 of what you make each year. What are we going to do?"...We had no answer for him. Of course, my husband and I were already very much aware of that fact. We just shrugged our shoulders and said, "We will figure out something when the time comes."...But we already know what the answer is. Huge student loans.

Seriously. Look at school overseas. You can find universities whose degrees transfer right back to the USA that are perfectly happy to take on foreign kids, and whose yearly tuition, plus the costs of flying there, passport, visas, etc, etc, is still 5-10 times less than even tuition at a 'cheap' US school. Lots of them have intensive-language as a first-year curriculum, so that's not necessarily a problem (on the contrary, it's quite a bonus to get a university degree as well as near-native fluency in a language).

Depending on what your sons want to study, it's a pretty straightforward thing to start vetting schools and countries already. If any of our boys want to go into medicine, we already know where they'll study -- at USD$5000 a year tuition (hell, let it double in the next several years, even) with degrees transferrable directly back to Emory University in Atlanta... what's not to like?

Wow!
Go away fro a few days and a middle eastern 4T is catalyzed!
And judging from the secular nature of the protests, such as the fact that the poor want lower bread prices and the college educated want a real future, this looks very outer world oriented to me. ::

Add to that the fact that the Moslem Brotherhood seems to be flat footed in their response to the situation.

One other thing I will add for now is the fact that I happened to see a bit of the FOX news 'reporting' and the neocon slant of their coverage is disgusting. It's only my opinion but from what I've observed they are likely to pitch the idea of massive American involvement to support, umm, well heck, it means contracts for Haliburton and that's good enough for some people.

Originally Posted by herbal tee

Wow!
Go away fro a few days and a middle eastern 4T is catalyzed!
And judging from the secular nature of the protests, such as the fact that the poor want lower bread prices and the college educated want a real future, this looks very outer world oriented to me. ::

Add to that the fact that the Moslem Brotherhood seems to be flat footed in their response to the situation.

One other thing I will add for now is the fact that I happened to see a bit of the FOX news 'reporting' and the neocon slant of their coverage is disgusting. It's only my opinion but from what I've observed they are likely to pitch the idea of massive American involvement to support, umm, well heck, it means contracts for Haliburton and that's good enough for some people.

Oh God, I'm afraid to even ask exactly what Fox news is saying.

I watched quite a bit of the coverage last night on CNN. (I haven't turned it on today.) But one of the things that struck me is was what one of their analysis said. This person commented on how the Egyptian people were disappointed that our government hasn't come out in stronger support of their cause. I had 2 thoughts on this...#1 - Obama did say in a speech that we side with the Egyptian people. And #2 - This is their revolution. Not ours. Why are looking to us for kudos? I guess somewhere along the line, we really did convince the rest of world that it's our job to police them.