Originally Posted by ASB65

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41363935...ideastn_africa



Hum...is this good enough for the Egyptian people? And the next question is if he does remain in office until then, will he hand pick his successor and rig the election?

Interesting. That was what I heard Senator John Kerry propose on NPR's "Morning Edition" this morning while I was doing dishes and making breakfast.

Originally Posted by ASB65

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41363935...ideastn_africa



Hum...is this good enough for the Egyptian people? And the next question is if he does remain in office until then, will he hand pick his successor and rig the election?

That seems to be the question.

Wow, Anderson Cooper and his crew got beat up in Egypt, by Mubarak supporters. Things are starting to get real ugly over there.

Real Mubarak supporters? Or Da Police? Any likelihood that this is the fuzz in plain clothes, sent out by Mubarak to make his point?

Originally Posted by The Grey Badger

Real Mubarak supporters? Or Da Police? Any likelihood that this is the fuzz in plain clothes, sent out by Mubarak to make his point?

Well, I'm not sure. I just heard what Anderson Cooper said. He called them supporters of Mubarak. Apparently they just came up and started hitting him and his producer in the head and kicking them.

Here is a link to an article about it.

http://www.aolnews.com/2011/02/02/an...cked-in-cairo/

Originally Posted by Odin

Yup. the Near East be 4T. Iran Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria are now going into a 2T as well. Arabia is probably on the same time line as Egypt, SA had a 4T going from the founding of the kingdom in the 20s to the first Arab-Israeli War of 1948.

I'm beginning to agree with you about that one.

Asmaa Mahfouz, a young woman who posted a vlog that went viral in Egypt about protests, seems like more of a Civic to me than a Prophet. Link here

Protests in Yemen

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41401994...ideastn_africa

More than 20,000 Yemenis filled the streets of Sanaa on Thursday for a "day of rage" rally, demanding a change in government and saying President Ali Abdullah Saleh's offer to step down in 2013 was not enough.

Originally Posted by ASB65

Well, I'm not sure. I just heard what Anderson Cooper said. He called them supporters of Mubarak. Apparently they just came up and started hitting him and his producer in the head and kicking them.

Here is a link to an article about it.

http://www.aolnews.com/2011/02/02/an...cked-in-cairo/

Mubarak supporters were yelling and threatening Christiane Amanpour, too. One of the ABC News programs ran the story late last night, with journalists saying they were hiding their cameras while out in public, because so many of Mubarak's supporters blame media coverage of the protests as the reason Mubarak is having to step down.

When Amanpour questioned why these supporters were angry at them, they responded that they hated Americans. She asked why, and they said, "because you're evil." The mob chased Amanpour's crew, kicked their car doors and broke the windshield as they sped away. More here.

Egypt's situation gets more interesting every day.

Originally Posted by Xer H

Mubarak supporters were yelling and threatening Christiane Amanpour, too. One of the ABC News programs ran the story late last night, with journalists saying they were hiding their cameras while out in public, because so many of Mubarak's supporters blame media coverage of the protests as the reason Mubarak is having to step down.

When Amanpour questioned why these supporters were angry at them, they responded that they hated Americans. She asked why, and they said, "because you're evil." The mob chased Amanpour's crew, kicked their car doors and broke the windshield as they sped away. More here.

Egypt's situation gets more interesting every day.

And this is one of the fears that I think many of us have about who would actually take over if Mubarak does step down. I believe that radicals (like the Taliban or members of Al Qaeda) could very easily cease control of the government.

Those aren't Mubarak supporters attacking journalists. They're Mubarak's paid goons (I think the media refers to them as 'plainclothes policemen'). They're terribly small in number, compared to the mass of the popular uprising, but since they are better-funded, better-equipped, and much, much, much more naturally inclined to violence (paid to engage in it, even)... they show up disproportionally often in news coverage.

As for e-e-evil co-opting Egypt once America's boy finally finishes falling? I suppose it's always a possibility (an eventuality, even, since the protesters seem to be aiming to replace, not abolish their rulers... but frequent, bloody changes of kings are at least a move in the right direction). On the other hand, one of the most frequent chants being shouted these last several days over there (a distant second, granted to "God is great" -- which everyone can agree on) is along the lines of, "Muslim, Christian, we're all Egyptian". My evidence-free guess is that the odds of this turning out 'pretty well' are at least decent.


Right now, it's just awe-inspiring to watch people who actually care about freedom actually doing something about it. Plus, if you pay attention, there's the tactical side. Which is interesting in its own right, and who knows? maybe even useful someday...

Originally Posted by Justin '77

Those aren't Mubarak supporters attacking journalists. They're Mubarak's paid goons (I think the media refers to them as 'plainclothes policemen'). They're terribly small in number, compared to the mass of the popular uprising, but since they are better-funded, better-equipped, and much, much, much more naturally inclined to violence (paid to engage in it, even)... they show up disproportionally often in news coverage.

As for e-e-evil co-opting Egypt once America's boy finally finishes falling? I suppose it's always a possibility (an eventuality, even, since the protesters seem to be aiming to replace, not abolish their rulers... but frequent, bloody changes of kings are at least a move in the right direction). On the other hand, one of the most frequent chants being shouted these last several days over there (a distant second, granted to "God is great" -- which everyone can agree on) is along the lines of, "Muslim, Christian, we're all Egyptian". My evidence-free guess is that the odds of this turning out 'pretty well' are at least decent.


Right now, it's just awe-inspiring to watch people who actually care about freedom actually doing something about it. Plus, if you pay attention, there's the tactical side. Which is interesting in its own right, and who knows? maybe even useful someday...

Now this is an interesting twist. You are being the optimist and I'm being the pessimist. I do hope you are right, Justin, that this does turn out well. And I agree it is exciting to see the people standing up for themselves. I do hope it does turn out to be very good for them and the rest of the world.

That War Nerd piece was pretty interesting, too.

While I think there are some Mubarak supporters -- those who would resist change, even if change would improve their lives -- it does appear that many of them are the hired goons you suggest they are.

Sure... call me an optimist.

Part of it is simply that these don't look much like the kind of people al-Q rolls with:

Originally Posted by Xer H

While I think there are some Mubarak supporters....

Oh, totally. Not just the people who get money from him, either. I bet his mom is totally on his side, too. And he's got to have at least a couple old high school buds...

Originally Posted by Justin '77

Oh, totally. Not just the people who get money from him, either. I bet his mom is totally on his side, too. And he's got to have at least a couple old high school buds...

LOL.

Makes you think about who would be the "hard line supporters" in a revolution here. If it's a conservative/libertarian revolution, what would the FAR left do? If a liberal/progressive revolution, what would the FAR right do?

Apparently, journalists are being arrested now in Egypt. Huffington Post reports NYT journalists have been arrested, and CNN is reporting that a London Times reporter was attacked; other protesters took her into a store and locked it to avoid her being killed.

Originally Posted by Justin '77

Those aren't Mubarak supporters attacking journalists. They're Mubarak's paid goons (I think the media refers to them as 'plainclothes policemen'). They're terribly small in number, compared to the mass of the popular uprising, but since they are better-funded, better-equipped, and much, much, much more naturally inclined to violence (paid to engage in it, even)... they show up disproportionally often in news coverage.

As for e-e-evil co-opting Egypt once America's boy finally finishes falling? I suppose it's always a possibility (an eventuality, even, since the protesters seem to be aiming to replace, not abolish their rulers... but frequent, bloody changes of kings are at least a move in the right direction). On the other hand, one of the most frequent chants being shouted these last several days over there (a distant second, granted to "God is great" -- which everyone can agree on) is along the lines of, "Muslim, Christian, we're all Egyptian". My evidence-free guess is that the odds of this turning out 'pretty well' are at least decent.


Right now, it's just awe-inspiring to watch people who actually care about freedom actually doing something about it. Plus, if you pay attention, there's the tactical side. Which is interesting in its own right, and who knows? maybe even useful someday...

Yes! freedom might be a virus...tactics...hmmm...

Originally Posted by Xer H

Apparently, journalists are being arrested now in Egypt. Huffington Post reports NYT journalists have been arrested, and CNN is reporting that a London Times reporter was attacked; other protesters took her into a store and locked it to avoid her being killed.

I had to pass this funny fb status along that one of my friends posted

Anderson Cooper...Bring your sexy self back home !

And on that note, I think it's time for Anderson Cooper to come on CNN. I think I'll go upstairs now and turn on the TV to see how my boy, Anderson is doing tonight. Hope is he alright.

Saudi Arabia is 'unstable' like Egypt, says Nassim Taleb

A good friend of mine is Egyptian and he is in the middle of things, although he admits he didn't get completely involved until the 28th. He is hoping for the best and doing what he can to make that happen. He said that the first demonstrators were people in their 20s.

He wants Mubarak out. But he has since I met him 15 years ago. This is despite the fact that his family has been very successful. This is about his country.

This is about Egypt. Not the US (and my friend is a US citizen). I don't think this is going to go away and it's not about Hamas or influences outside of Egypt.

Originally Posted by Justin '77

Right now, it's just awe-inspiring to watch people who actually care about freedom actually doing something about it. Plus, if you pay attention, there's the tactical side. Which is interesting in its own right, and who knows? maybe even useful someday...

I find it interesting that the author of that piece contrasted the attitude of the Egyptian protesters compared to the Iranians.

Unfortunately, the problem with the Iranian protestors is that they’re mostly the educated nice types, so they dragged away the few sensible people who were trying to do the logical thing: kicking the bike guys to death. No way to win a war, you poor Tehran yuppies. We’re just primates here, and the best thing you could do is bash your enemies’ head in while you got the chance. Ah well, too late now.From what I saw of the Cairo cavalry charge, it didn’t look like the Cairo protestors were as squeamish as those overcivilized Tehranites.

Could this be a contrast between the behavior of Adaptives/Idealists and Reactives/Civics?

Is it just my imagination runnin' away with me, or are the Coptic Christians inordinately overrepresented among the pro-Mubarak crowd?

But my problem with the radic-libs is that they refuse to even recognize that there is, in the world today, a fundamental clash of ideas, between the heirs to the Athenian archetype on one side (the Western modernizers) and the heirs to the Spartan archetype on the other (the Islamists). Indeed, the only difference between this clash and the Cold War is that the main point of contention was economic then, and social and cultural now.

Which is why, as far back as the spring of 1993, I labeled the current conflict "The Second Cold War" - a label that no one else out there, not even the necons, seems to have warmed up to.

Moreover, this is nothing new; indeed, it is almost a constant throughout modern, and even medieval and ancient, history - thus the Athenian vs. Spartan analogy fits the paradigm perfectly.

Originally Posted by Odin

Maybe if secularism were not associated with brutal, US-backed tyrants folks in the Middle East would think differently.

Cultural Modernity cannot be imposed on a society, it must develop as a result of industrialization, it is industrialization that makes secular, tolerant culture possible. It is industrialization that removes the environmental selection pressures that encourage patriarchy and authoritarian religion.

Also, democracy forces Islamist parties to become more moderate over time. Turkey's Islamists are quite mild by comparison with the rest of the Middle East.

While I probably agree in principle, I hesitate to draw conclusions about cultures so radically different from my own. That's one of the lessons that massive, politically imposed immigration to Sweden has taught me. Egypt has been on the track of modernity since the early 19th century and still it's the country where the Islamic Brotherhood was founded. Why?

Though Mubarak is a US-Israeli puppet and a tool of Neocon power in the region - when he is ousted everyone will be able to breathe a little easier - the problem remains that the Muslim Brotherhood is the only force of opposition that is both organized and strong in Egypt. So however my sympathies go to the young people in the streets, especially the women who reject the hijab and want a modern and secular Egypt, there is reason to fear the Islamists will be the ones who will have the last laugh. They are certainly intent at using the revolt to take over the reigns of power if the opportunity presents itself, be sure of that.

Originally Posted by '58 Flat

Is it just my imagination runnin' away with me, or are the Coptic Christians inordinately overrepresented among the pro-Mubarak crowd?

The positioning of the Copts in this matter is highly salient. Judging from recent Muslim violence before the revolt began, the Copts stand first in line to suffer wholesale persecution the moment an Islamic Democracy establishes itself.

And not for nothing, but if the Muslim Brotherhood wins a "democratic" election in Egypt - and they almost certainly will - the real winners will be the neocons, who will use the outcome of that ballot to paint all Muslims, or at least the vast majority of them anyway, as enemies that need to be defeated, by any means necessary. They will then be able to paint non-Islamists within the Muslim world as weird heretics rather than "moderates."

Thus the table for World War III will be set.

Originally Posted by '58 Flat

And not for nothing, but if the Muslim Brotherhood wins a "democratic" election in Egypt - and they almost certainly will - the real winners will be the neocons, who will use the outcome of that ballot to paint all Muslims, or at least the vast majority of them anyway, as enemies that need to be defeated, by any means necessary. They will then be able to paint non-Islamists within the Muslim world as weird heretics rather than "moderates."

Thus the table for World War III will be set.

Yes, I sure can see it. A warmongerer's dream come true.