I was trying to figure out if there is any possibility that what is happening in the middle east could possibly spill over and become our 4T big event. Here is the one of scenarios I came up with...

As the protest movement continues to spread across the middle east some dictator from one of middle eastern countries sees seizes the opportunity and invades one (or more) of these newly "freed" countries before they actually have a strong government in place. Perhaps the occupying dictator feels that by invading some of these weaker countries, that will stop the revolution movement from continuing. I'm sure a lot of these middle eastern dictators in other countries right now are feeling a little nervous about their own status at the present time...When this happens, the US and other allies feel the need to "make the world safe democracy"...again, and we get into another WW2 type situation.

I"m not saying I'm sure this will happen...just throwing out a possible scenario. Can anyone else come up a scenario as to how the middle east revolution could become our 4T event?

Another one I can think of is that fundamentalists take over several of these newly-freed countries and potentially help Iran's fundamentalist government with nuclear weapons (Pakistan is my biggest worry here). Iran, alone or in conjunction with other Middle East states, targets Israel. And, well, we know where it goes from there.

Originally Posted by Chas'88

Marx, you're such a Debbie Downer, or Bob Bummer to be gender correct.

~Chas'88

Maybe, but I didn't see any disagreement there. LAST CHANCE ...

Originally Posted by Xer H

Another one I can think of is that fundamentalists take over several of these newly-freed countries and potentially help Iran's fundamentalist government with nuclear weapons (Pakistan is my biggest worry here). Iran, alone or in conjunction with other Middle East states, targets Israel. And, well, we know where it goes from there.

Having just had this conversation with my wife over dinner last night, one of the areas that i mentioned to her were the India/ Pakistan region. it will be interesting to watch and see what unfolds as the people of the middle east look for answers.

anouther area that i discussed with her was North and South Korea. having spent a considerable amount of time in China over the last few years i have noticed a huge swing in American sentiment there and a rising discontent among the university age group that are seeing what the rest of the world has and wish to see changes made. While I was in country it also became clear that China has a vested interest in North Korea, one of the places that i worked was about 100 klicks north of North Korea and while seemingly trying to diffuse the Korean conflict, i believe that should push come to shove that China will back them if it becomes necessary.

I have also commented many times to family and friends that the growing discontent of the Chinese students is likely to evolve into the same kind of demonstrations that we are seeing in the Middle East only on a much larger scale. I was out on a 2 week R&R might have been 2 years ago now. when i returned to Beijing i found that all social mediums had been shut down by the government due to a protest in one of the provinces by students wanting more freedom. In talking to my interpreter i was not able to get much more than oh yes it was very bad, leading me to believe that once again the Chinese government had quelled the protests the only way they know how .. with violence.

these are just my opinions and i have been wrong before but look to see something serious happen in China as the students demand more freedom, i expect it to happen sometime within the next 5 years.

Originally Posted by Kanteai

one of the places that i worked was about 100 klicks north of North Korea

Neato. I spent five weeks in Vladivostok (about the same 100k from the NK border) for work a few years back. Where were you?

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

Apparently, the entire Middle East will go through a series of up-with-the-people events, but I can't see them all being sucesssful. As time goes along, one regime will find a way to defuse the protests, and all the other regimes will follow suit.

But not all regimes are alike. To make an obvious point, neither Egyptians nor Persians are Arabs, and will tell you so at great length, so their chances of falling in with an Arab-based rebellion depend entirely on whether or not it's to their interest to do so. Other rebellions depend on whether or not there's a huge fault line other than the simply generational, such as Shia vs Sunni or Iraqi vs Kurd. And finally, whether the younger generation is Western-looking or Islamicist.

Hence I see Iran as following Egypt down the path from "look who's coming down the street...." to "hell, no, we won't go...." to waving flags of victory in Tehran. Persian flags.

Turkey is going in the opposite direction partly because their repeated and very strong attempts to become part of the Western world were roundly rebuffed by the European nations. Who IMO will reap just what they sowed there.

The Arab world, now, depends on the sectarian and national considerations given above, and what their last crisis might have been.

Originally Posted by Xer H

Another one I can think of is that fundamentalists take over several of these newly-freed countries and potentially help Iran's fundamentalist government with nuclear weapons (Pakistan is my biggest worry here). Iran, alone or in conjunction with other Middle East states, targets Israel. And, well, we know where it goes from there.

Note: Iran's fundamentalist government is the Older Generation, in power for something like 30 years, and as in Egypt, apparently the young people are sick to death of it.

Originally Posted by Kanteai

Having just had this conversation with my wife over dinner last night, one of the areas that i mentioned to here where the India/ Pakistan region. it will be interesting to watch and see what unfolds as the people of the middle east look for answers.

anouther area that i discussed with here was North and South Korea. having spent a considerable amount of time in China over the last few years i have noticed a huge swing in American sentiment there and a rising discontent among the university age group that are seeing what the rest of the world has and wish to see changes made. While I was in country it also became clear that China has a vested interest in North Korea, one of the places that i worked was about 100 klicks north of North Korea and while seemingly trying to diffuse the Korean conflict, i believe that should push come to shove that China will back them if it becomes necessary.

I have also commented many times to family and friends that the growing discontent of the Chinese students is likely to evolve into the same kind of demonstrations that we are seeing in the Middle East only on a much larger scale. I was out on a 2 week R&R might have been 2 years ago now. when i returned to Beijing i found that all social mediums had been shut down by the government due to a protest in one of the provinces by students wanting more freedom. In talking to my interpreter i was not able to get much more than oh yes it was very bad, leading me to believe that once again the Chinese government had quelled the protests the only way they know how .. with violence.

these are just my opinions and i have been wrong before but look to see something serious happen in China as the students demand more freedom, i expect it to happen sometime within the next 5 years.

Oh, God, yes. I expect the Korean border to go up in flames at the drop of a hat. Or of food supplies. That regime is barking mad, to put it mildly and politely, and they have massive food shortages. China may be their patron, but China also has them on a leash, being no fools.

India/Pakistan? Just about the hottest, or second hottest spot in Asia. They've been rattling sabers at each other since 1948, just like Israel and Palestine, and have al-Qaeda's finger in their pot to boot. Or at least, in Pakistan's pot. We can't even count on the usual "He's a tyrant and a bully, but he's our tyrant, and he keeps things stable," person being on the scene in either place.

Originally Posted by Justin '77

Neato. I spent five weeks in Vladivostok (about the same 100k from the NK border) for work a few years back. Where were you?

I did several jobs in the Benxi area near Shanyang, and also spent time in Harbin and Hailar, both of which are basically border areas to that part of Russia. i was very fortunate one year to be able to attend the annual Ice festival in Harbin, one of those once in a lifetime events.

Originally Posted by Kanteai

I did several jobs in the Benxi area near Shanyang, and also spent time in Harbin and Hailar, both of which are basically border areas to that part of Russia. i was very fortunate one year to be able to attend the annual Ice festival in Harbin, one of those once in a lifetime events.

That's cool. I dipped my foot in Harbin's pee up in Khabarovsk once (that's what my buddy there told me about that part of Amur ... after the fact). Never made it out that way in the wintertime, more's the pity.

The only work I ever did in China was very briefly down at the other end; we had clients in Xiaolongtan and Qinlaoxiang over near Kunming. Beautiful area, though.

Very cool, guys. I never made it that far north; Beijing/Mutianyu and Seoul were the closest, although I did spend a lot of time in the countryside between Beijing and Xian. But that was the mid-to-late '90s, before the real growth spurt occurred.

China was never really my spot -- I only went the one time. Though I flew through Incheon a ton of times (coming back the the States from Primorskiy or Khabarovskiy Kray, you have two choices -- via Osaka or via Seoul). I spent more time on Kalimantan than in China. Though even that was a relatively minor chunk.

Kind of interesting, in light of the "Multiculturalism has failed" news from European leaders a few days ago...

Egyptians reach Italy amid worry about Arab exodus

Originally Posted by Justin '77

China was never really my spot -- I only went the one time. Though I flew through Incheon a ton of times (coming back the the States from Primorskiy or Khabarovskiy Kray, you have two choices -- via Osaka or via Seoul). I spent more time on Kalimantan than in China. Though even that was a relatively minor chunk.

Although i spent a bit over 2 years of total time between the Eastern areas and the Bautou, Huahoute, Jungeer areas on Inner Mongolia, i have to say that China was not really for me either. The Eastern area was probably my favorite of the places i have been there, but the ideas i had in my head about China from childhood never materialized. i probably would have had to go to the western areas, say the Tibetan regions to see if those ideals still held.

it is funny how we picture something to be until we arrive to find that it is nothing like what we had imagined. And while i knew the culture would be different from anything i had experienced it was still a shock. The first time that i went in it did not feel like a Communist country, i was able to pretty much do or go anywhere i wished as long as i had my passport with me. Towards the end of my last trips it was becoming more and more apparent that the people mainly through Government propaganda were becoming less and less friendly to foreigners. i was there when they had their 60th anniversary of Communism, i watched the troops and tanks and nukes roll through the streets of Beijing while the announcers on the one English news channel treated it like the tournament of roses parade. * now Chong did you notice the titanium nose tip on that particular Nuclear weapon, that is a special alloy mined and manufactured....* was bizarre to say the least, and very reminiscent of the military marches we would see clips of during the cold war days.

I was very happy when i was contacted around thanksgiving while in Northern Alberta and told i would be lead IR for South America * especially since it was -35 at the time where i was*

Originally Posted by Kanteai

Although i spent a bit over 2 years of total time between the Eastern areas and the Bautou, Huahoute, Jungeer areas on Inner Mongolia, i have to say that China was not really for me either.

Oh, I dug China (at least, the small part of Yunnan that I experienced) just fine. I meant 'not my spot' in the sense that my territory was Russia/CIS and Oz/NZ. China, Thailand, Singapore, and Indonesia were all one-time shots.

Nice summary of what's going on where, and why:

Protest wave grows: Bahrain, Yemen and now Libya

Originally Posted by ASB65

I was trying to figure out if there is any possibility that what is happening in the middle east could possibly spill over and become our 4T big event. Here is the one of scenarios I came up with...

As the protest movement continues to spread across the middle east some dictator from one of middle eastern countries sees seizes the opportunity and invades one (or more) of these newly "freed" countries before they actually have a strong government in place. Perhaps the occupying dictator feels that by invading some of these weaker countries, that will stop the revolution movement from continuing. I'm sure a lot of these middle eastern dictators in other countries right now are feeling a little nervous about their own status at the present time...When this happens, the US and other allies feel the need to "make the world safe democracy"...again, and we get into another WW2 type situation.

I"m not saying I'm sure this will happen...just throwing out a possible scenario. Can anyone else come up a scenario as to how the middle east revolution could become our 4T event?

What you and Xer H said, isn't going to happen. But it's a great question. If this continues, as it will over the next few years as well as months, it could eventually throw a monkey wrench into American control of middle east oil. Already prices have spiked again. We of course need to switch from oil, but the entrenched interests and their deceived followers in this country resist this. I'm not sure if this will turn into a crisis though. and I doubt Obama will want to invade one of the Gulf countries if they decide to cut us off.

This revolution could inspire others in other regions as well. It could also embolden the protests from both the left and the right in this country. Eventually, our great divide may be headed for a breakup, which will probably be the climax of our 4T in the mid-2020s.

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

Apparently, the entire Middle East will go through a series of up-with-the-people events, but I can't see them all being sucesssful. As time goes along, one regime will find a way to defuse the protests, and all the other regimes will follow suit.

Sure beats invading them.

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

Apparently, the entire Middle East will go through a series of up-with-the-people events, but I can't see them all being sucesssful. As time goes along, one regime will find a way to defuse the protests, and all the other regimes will follow suit.

I think each country will be different, and even if one or some of the movements fail, the success in Egypt and Tunisia are such big examples that it won't stop the movements. Any more than the Tienanmen Square crackdown stopped the other liberation movements in 1989.

Well now we see the true colors of Egypt's "opposition" shining through:

They're calling for a halt of the sale of natural gas to Israel!

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Arti...ID=208567&R=R1

Originally Posted by ASB65

I was trying to figure out if there is any possibility that what is happening in the middle east could possibly spill over and become our 4T big event. Here is the one of scenarios I came up with...

As the protest movement continues to spread across the middle east some dictator from one of middle eastern countries sees seizes the opportunity and invades one (or more) of these newly "freed" countries before they actually have a strong government in place. Perhaps the occupying dictator feels that by invading some of these weaker countries, that will stop the revolution movement from continuing. I'm sure a lot of these middle eastern dictators in other countries right now are feeling a little nervous about their own status at the present time...When this happens, the US and other allies feel the need to "make the world safe democracy"...again, and we get into another WW2 type situation.

I"m not saying I'm sure this will happen...just throwing out a possible scenario. Can anyone else come up a scenario as to how the middle east revolution could become our 4T event?

Amy, I think that's unlikely. I don't think any of those countries are sufficiently well-organized to mount a big invasion, for one thing. A much more likely flash point would involve Israel, which is prepared to ethnically cleanse the West Bank on the spot if fundamentalist regimes take over Egypt, Jordan, or both. They are already rattling the sabers about another Lebanon War, now that Hezbollah is the major power in the Lebanese government.

Revolts in the small Gulf states--Bahrain, Dubai, Qatar, etc.--could lead to western intervention.

Originally Posted by '58 Flat

Well now we see the true colors of Egypt's "opposition" shining through:

They're calling for a halt of the sale of natural gas to Israel!

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Arti...ID=208567&R=R1

Ah, maybe there's a source of 4T problems in America. We are so tied to supporting Israel, no matter how much they oppress the people of the Middle East, that we may be put in a position of defending some of the old autocratic, oppressive Mid-East rulers. I think that may cause us to finally come to grips with our support for Israel. How important is that to us? Do we really want to go against our own American "values," in order to support this client state that has no willingness to allow its neighbors to exist in peace and freedom? How big a hold do Israel and American pro-Israeli Jews have on our politicians and the American people who vote for them? We may need to go through the ordeal of letting Israel go and forcing it to fend for itself. We really can't afford foreign aid to either Egypt OR Israel anyway anymore.

I see David has said something along the same lines above.

Ivory Coast's largest bank closes, crisis deepens

ABIDJAN, Ivory Coast – Nine banks, including Ivory Coast's largest, shut down their operations one after another Thursday, further squeezing the country's strongman who is refusing to leave office nearly three months after being declared the loser of the presidential election.

Originally Posted by '58 Flat

Well now we see the true colors of Egypt's "opposition" shining through:

They're calling for a halt of the sale of natural gas to Israel!

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Arti...ID=208567&R=R1

Israel's got its own natural gas now.

Originally Posted by The Wonkette

Israel's got its own natural gas now.

Yeah, I saw that story - in the neocon-friendly (to grossly understate it!) National Examiner.