Marc will like this...
...according to this article, "we be 3T"--at least in terms of how election campaigns are run. However, the winds of change are blowing, but no one has figured out how to sail them--yet.
Also, there's evidence here that Carl Rove, at least, has not read S&H. Otherwise, he wouldn't be trying to compare today to 1896--wrong turning entirely!
Standard disclaimers apply:
Seeking Big Ideas To Break A Deadlock
By David Von Drehle and Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, October 30, 2002; Page A01
In a country more evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans than at any time in over a century, an amazing thing may happen on Election Day:
The balance could get even closer.
Two years after one of the tightest presidential and congressional elections
in history, neither party appears likely to open up a clear majority. What
does look possible is that Democrats could elect enough governors to wipe
out the Republican advantage at that level.
In other words, Election 2002 is shaping up, as time runs out, to be a
ratification of 50-50 America, which is a nation of plurality presidents,
gridlocked legislatures and declining voter participation. Strategists in
both parties think and talk about the need to roll out big ideas and make
bold new moves to break this deadlock -- but for now it's just talk.
Instead of big and bold, the campaigns of 2002 have been marked by caution, vagueness, negativism, niche issues and sloganeering. Neither party has offered a clear or enticing way out. Tactics are almost certain to matter more in these races next Tuesday than issues or philosophy.
Stanley Greenberg, a veteran Democratic pollster and strategist, says the
parties "are so evenly matched at the moment that all the incentives are to be careful. . . . We have tactical elections, we don't have big elections,
because there's every prospect that you can win by thinking small."
In recent months, The Washington Post has asked a range of political
scientists and theorists to talk about what it will take for one party or
other to gain a clear governing majority. Partisans on both sides argue that time and trends are in their favor, but no one seriously disputed the idea that the political battlefield is stalemated. Nor was either side confident that the 2004 election would produce a breakthrough.
That's because describing the situation is easy, but finding a way out is
harder.
"There has been no national ideological majority since the end of the Cold
War," said Kenneth Mehlman, political director for the Bush White House.
"Politics has changed, and I'm not sure either party has figured it out."
Victory by Slice
Between the dreams of political strategists and the realities lies a vast
gulf.
First, the realities:
Most professional, major-party political campaigns are narrowly tactical.
Both sides try to build a winning coalition by first nailing down "the base"
-- that is, the loyal Democrats or Republicans. Then the candidates attempt to add some carefully targeted slices from the independent vote. Very thin slices, often.
Now and then, someone coins a catchy name for a coveted slice of the
electorate. "Soccer moms," for example. Then the political niche marketing catches the public's attention. Most of the targeting happens below the radar, and ordinary, untargeted voters are left to wonder why a candidate is suddenly interested in infant car seats, or promising a new road in this county rather than that one, or talking about the price of a jet ski license.
These realities -- courting the base and targeting the niches -- help
explain two constant themes of today's politics. Disaffected voters complain that elections seem to center on a few intractable hot-button issues, such as abortion and gun control, that matter intensely to the base of each party but far less to moderates. Add to these perennial face-offs a cluster of boutique issues aimed at narrow slices of voters, and you have the recipe for elections that seem to ignore the things that matter most.
Greenberg and others argue that careful and tactical elections, following
this general pattern, drive down turnout and guarantee that neither party
can claim the mandate to govern decisively. "There's a temptation," he says, "to find one small group" -- a niche -- "that gets you a couple extra
[percentage] points, rather than thinking grander."
That other bane of moderate voters, the negative ad campaign, is a
corollary. Negative ads can help a candidate fire up the base by demonizing an opponent. They might even weaken the enthusiasm of the opponent's base.
Campaigns that overemphasize tired battle lines, that gloss over major
concerns while highlighting niche issues, and that fill the tube with attack
ads -- Election 2002 has seen scores of them from coast to coast, so many
that this has come to be known as the "Seinfeld Election" -- it's about
nothing. The problem is not that broad issues don't exist, politicians in
both parties insist. It's that neither party has figured out how to win on
the big issues.
That's where the dreams come in.
Time Is on Our Side I
Elaine Kamarck can do the tactical stuff -- she was an adviser to the
Clinton and Gore campaigns of the past decade -- but she also nurtures
dreams of a lasting Democratic majority, the sort of coalition that Franklin
D. Roosevelt created with his New Deal. Her party has not had a presidential candidate that won a majority of the votes since 1976. But entwined in those results, she envisions a near future in which Democrats dominate.
"The population is increasingly Democratic," Kamarck asserts, but this is
obscured by the archaic electoral college. "We are concentrated in big
states, which are underrepresented. That will change in time. The
megalopolises are growing, and that's where Democrats live. The other areas are shrinking. The Republican coalition is, frankly, an aging coalition."
Kamarck is one of many Democrats who believe that trends in demographics and cultural values are running in favor of their party. Their strategy for breaking the 50-50 deadlock is simply to keep doing what they are doing. In this vision, the New Democrats of the 1990s, led by former president Bill Clinton, successfully shed their old image as a party of high taxes and anti-Americanism, and replace that with a record of boom times, balanced budgets and a sunny tolerance. This is precisely the image that will appeal to immigrants, "New Economy types and social liberals," Kamarck predicts.
This thesis, that demographic and economic forces are working to Democrats' advantage, is at the heart of "The Emerging Democratic Majority," by authors Ruy Teixeira, a political theorist at the Century Foundation, and John B. Judis, an editor at the New Republic. "The transition from industrial capitalism to postindustrial capitalism involves changes in how people relate to whole ranges of issues: to work, culture, sex, etc.," Judis explains. "Democrats have positioned themselves better to deal with those changes."
You might call this the Patience Theory, and it has its strong dissenters.
Tad Devine is one. The veteran strategist, a key planner of Al Gore's 2000
campaign, instead makes the case for "initiatives as bold as the interstate
highway system, in the '50s and putting a man on the moon in the '60s." For example: a program to make college, even at private institutions, virtually free for many students.
Devine agrees that tolerance -- especially on sexual orientation -- can be a winning issue, if handled well. And he argues that Democrats need to
challenge President Bush on national security, an issue they have mostly
avoided since Sept. 11, 2001. They can't afford to go back to the Cold War
era, in which the party essentially surrendered on issues of defense and
foreign policy.
Devine, like Greenberg, worries that, while Democrats are being patient,
Republicans will reinvent themselves. In fact, they are already ahead in the race to forge a winning agenda, he believes. Republicans have one advantage: "They believe this needs to be done."
Time Is on Our Side II
"I'm not sitting here saying we have the model to create a majority," says
Mehlman, the White House political director, but he is willing to talk about
a few guiding theories. One is that both parties need to update their
images. The other is that action, not talk, is the way to accomplish this.
Popular policies make popular parties, he says.
Mehlman is seated in one of those huge, high-ceilinged offices in the
Eisenhower Executive Office Building, a room so large that pictures hung at eye level aren't even halfway up the wall. The space quietly underlines what Republicans -- and many Democrats -- see as the key GOP advantage in any race to break the deadlock: The presidency.
The Bush administration hopes that successful governing will translate into
political gain, such as the administration's education bill of 2001. "When
people see someone working to solve problems," Mehlman says, "they reward them."
But this approach is, perhaps, undercut by the existence of a 50-50 deadlock in the first place. Solving problems is hard when the government is evenly divided and dangerous in a climate when risks may be instantly punished. On at least one of the big problems that Mehlman suggests Bush could solve -- the looming crisis in Social Security funding -- Republicans in close races this year have been fleeing from the president's position to let younger workers invest some of their money in private accounts, evidence that boldness is not automatically rewarded, even by the faithful.
Across a small parking lot, on the second floor of the West Wing -- as if
hovering over the Oval Office -- Karl Rove tends his own dreams. When he was masterminding George W. Bush's 2000 campaign, the strategist spoke often of his desire to command a new and lasting majority. He frequently compared the race to 1896, when Republican William McKinley won a victory that gave his party the upper hand for the next 40 years.
The fact that Bush fell short of that kind of resounding win dampened some of Rove's big talk. While he still talks about the same goal, his language is more incremental.
"It won't be 50-50 after the 2004 election," Rove predicts. "Equilibrium
doesn't last long in American politics, and some party will gain an
advantage."
In his view, Bush laid the groundwork for a GOP majority in 2000 by putting a more welcoming face on the party with his message of "compassionate conservatism," and by speaking to the public's desire for education reform. Tolerance and diversity were the principal themes of the 2000 Republican convention in Philadelphia. The tools are in place to make significant gains among Hispanics, among younger men, and among suburban women who work outside the home -- all groups that the Patience Democrats are counting on for their emerging majority.
Now it's just a matter of delivering results, Rove explains. "Successful
administrations tend to translate into incremental changes in party
registration. . . . Small changes [in voter rolls] can be big and powerful."
As Rove combs through a sheaf of computer printouts, gleaning statistics to support his case, he begins to sound more like a Patience man than a Bold man. A few thousand new voters here, ten or twenty thousand there, spell, in his mind, the chance to tip a handful of key states away from the Democrats. Over time a Republican majority will create itself.
The man who once spoke brashly of recreating 1896 still believes that big
ideas -- the right ones -- make big majorities. But ask Rove what those big
ideas will be in 50-50 America and he answers briskly: "I'm still working on that."
"Dans cette epoque cybernetique
Pleine de gents informatique."