Compare the number of Boomers replacing Silents in the 2000 Congress to 2002 Congress replacement to that that took place in the 1998 Congress to 2000 Congress switchover. Take how many more seats were lost by Silents in the net count this election than how many were lost by Silents in the net count last time and multiply by two. Add 2 points for each Silent lost by comparison. If we actually lose fewer Silents than we did last time, subtract 5 points for each net Silent seat gained.
For example if the election one year changes the composition from
200 Silents to 180 Silents, and the election two years later changes the composition from 180 Silents to 156 Silents, we have 4 more Silents lost than last time (180 to 160 would have been the same as last time). For each of those 4, the new election would gain 2 points; therefore, we would add 8 points. If the second election actually lowers the count of Silents less than the last time, say going from 180 to 163, than we would take that 3 and multiply it by 5 (subtracting 15 points).
I do this because there WILL be some replacement of older generations by younger ones as time goes on, no matter what, but if the Silents disappear at an even faster rate than before, than that will hint at a real change in turning, not just a passing of time.
If the Silents actually GAIN in terms of their total seats in either the Senate or the House, or even among governors, subtract 20 points.
If the Silents gain a majority in the Senate, subtract 50 points.
If the Silents maintain their plurality, subtract 5 points.
If the Silents gain a generational plurality of the House of Representatives, subtract 200 points (actually, I think this is impossible).
If the voter turnout rate for all 18-to-24-year-olds in America is at least 40%, add 10 points.
If the majority of 18-to-24-year-olds vote, add 20 points.
If over 60% of them vote, add 30 points.
Finally, if any news network cancels its election coverage tonight to show you poodles in bikinis and people who have learned to flatulate every note with their armpits, subtract 1,000 points.