Originally Posted by Sabinus Invictus

One possible scenario for China to deal with us: after collapsing our economy in the manner described at length throughout the forum, China then launches a cyber-attack which disables all of our computer systems - those related to control of our nuclear arsenal in particular. Then, before the damage can be repaired, they launch a full-scale thermonuclear counter-value strike on us. Over 100 million are killed outright, while our retaliatory strike is short-circuited (and thus effectively prevented) by the compu-problems referred to above. Millions more die in the weeks and months to follow, while lethal concentrations of fallout spread over Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, Cuba, and northern Mexico. Whatever's left of the United States afterwards is protected from conventional attack only by the high residual radiation levels. However, this does not necessarily protect us from further missile-borne WMD attacks. Whether the congratulatory response of the rest of the world to the attack is genuine or inspired by fear is impossible to determine with any real exactitude.

I'm pretty sure that the boys in charge of our nukes aren't so stupid as to put the computers controlling them on the internet or dial-up.

Originally Posted by jeffw

I'm pretty sure that the boys in charge of our nukes aren't so stupid as to put the computers controlling them on the internet or dial-up.

DO YOU WANT TO PLAY A GAME? :wink:

Originally Posted by Peter Gibbons

Originally Posted by jeffw

I'm pretty sure that the boys in charge of our nukes aren't so stupid as to put the computers controlling them on the internet or dial-up.

DO YOU WANT TO PLAY A GAME? :wink:

How about Global Thermonuclear War? :?

Originally Posted by Peter Gibbons

Originally Posted by jeffw

I'm pretty sure that the boys in charge of our nukes aren't so stupid as to put the computers controlling them on the internet or dial-up.

DO YOU WANT TO PLAY A GAME? :wink:

Tic tac toe. Computer versus self.

tttoe
if score='tie'
. run tttoe

The only way to win is not to play. ;-)

Originally Posted by jeffw

Originally Posted by Peter Gibbons

Originally Posted by jeffw

I'm pretty sure that the boys in charge of our nukes aren't so stupid as to put the computers controlling them on the internet or dial-up.

DO YOU WANT TO PLAY A GAME? :wink:

How about Global Thermonuclear War? :?

Originally Posted by Justin '77

Tic tac toe. Computer versus self.

tttoe
if score='tie'
. run tttoe

Originally Posted by Kiff 1961

The only way to win is not to play. ;-)

:lol:
I see we are all up on our '80's movie trivia!!!

Originally Posted by jeffw

I'm pretty sure that the boys in charge of our nukes aren't so stupid as to put the computers controlling them on the internet or dial-up.

One would hope so, but...

They are eating "Our" lunch

Originally Posted by BBC

64m tons of meat were consumed in China in 2004 compared to 38m tons in the US

:arrow: :arrow: :arrow:

Originally Posted by Virgil K. Saari

They are eating "Our" lunch

Originally Posted by BBC

64m tons of meat were consumed in China in 2004 compared to 38m tons in the US

:arrow: :arrow: :arrow:

The new "yellow peril", eh? I recall in Huntington's "Clash of Civilizations" that he wrote that China for most of history constituted one third of the world economy, and would eventually reclaim that status. Well, bully for them.

Since we had discussed it earlier in this topic, here's a link to that Esquire article by Thomas P. M. Barnett:

http://www.esquire.com/features/arti...barnett_1.html


And because this topic desperately needs it, here is a fabulous picture of Scarlett Johansson:

Okay, some blondes are attractive. 8)

Playing the China Card

Originally Posted by Mr. Niall Ferguson

And economic interdependence notionally reduces the risk of Sino-American disagreements on strategic matters, notably North Korea but also Taiwan. Yet the Chinese must be feeling nervous. It clearly makes sense for them to reduce their economic dependence on the US export market and their exposure to the dollar.
Step forward Europe -already a bigger market than the US for Chinese goods and proud owner of the euro, a currency looking increasingly like an alternative reserve currency to the dollar.

The irony is that just a few months before Bush's visit to Brussels, a European statesman went on a little-reported trip to Beijing. President Jacques Chirac was there ostensibly to promote trade and cultural exchanges with France. But Chirac surely had a rather grander design in mind. He knows that talk of transatlantic rapprochement amounts to little more than empty rhetoric. He also knows that Europe has an opportunity to woo China from the American embrace.

Today, as in 1972, the international system has a triangular shape. Then it was the US that outwitted the Soviet Union by making overtures to China. Perhaps it is now Europe's turn to outwit the US by doing the same. Or has George Bush already booked his flight to Beijing?

http://www.isn.ethz.ch/news/sw/details.cfm?ID=10840

China is going after the shrinking energy pie (and so are we)...

This could be the Crisis: America vs. China
http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/Con...d=970599119419

Originally Posted by Tom Mazanec

This could be the Crisis: America vs. China
http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/Con...d=970599119419

Definitely. But what does Bush do? He sits by while we keep exporting our technology and our industrial base to China. What more could we do to help them along, for crying out loud?

2 + 2 = 4 ON CHINA

China is offering the usual yin-and-yang on Taiwan. Premier Wen Jiabao follows President Hu Jintao at the big annual People's Congress, and while Hu was all conciliatory and relaxed on Taiwan, Wen plays hard cop with tougher talk. Meanwhile, China continues to modernize its military in such a way as to make it difficult for the U.S. to counter any moves it might take militarily against the island.

In a phrase, the same-old, same-old.

On North Korea, China talks tougher in private than in public, but doesn't seem interested in sticking its neck out to help the Americans on Kim's quest for WMD (already achieved). Seems they like it being our problem more than theirs, preferring to focus on keeping the peninsula free of war but really being far more afraid that Kim's bombs will force both South Korea and Japan down the same pathway, something that would frighten them far more.

In a phrase, the same-old, same-old.

Meanwhile, the U.S. shows almost no imagination in linking these two problem sets together, as I did recently in Esquire. We want China's help on North Korea, and China seems obsessed on Taiwan, where we provide a defense guarantee. We're their key on Taiwan, and they're our key on North Korea. You'd think someday someone in the Bush administration would think to get a little chocolate on their peanut butter or vice versa. But no, both sides remain stuck right where they are, and no one gets what they want as a result.

But this, my friends, is considered "realism," and better to be "realistic" than na?ve . . ..

Originally Posted by Mr. Chalmers Johnson

But the long-standing Iranian-Japanese alignment began to change in late 2004.
On Oct. 28, China's oil major, the Sinopec Group, signed an agreement with Iran
worth between $70 and $100 billion to develop the giant Yadavaran natural gas
field. China agreed to buy 250 million tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from
Iran over 25 years. It is the largest deal Iran has signed with a foreign country
since 1996 and will include several other benefits, including China's assistance
in building numerous ships to deliver the LNG to Chinese ports. Iran also committed
itself to exporting 150,000 barrels of crude oil per day to China for 25 years
at market prices.


Iran's oil minister, Bijan Zanganeh, on a visit to Beijing noted that Iran
is China's biggest foreign oil supplier and said that his country wants to be
China's long-term business partner. He told China Business Weekly that
Tehran would like to replace Japan with China as the biggest customer for its
oil and gas. The reason is obvious: American pressure on Iran to give up its
nuclear power development program and the Bush administration's declared intention
to take Iran to the UN Security Council for the imposition of sanctions (which
a Chinese vote could veto). On Nov. 6, 2004, Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing
paid a rare visit to Tehran. In meetings with Iranian President Mohammad Khatami,
Li said that Beijing would indeed consider vetoing any American effort to sanction
Iran at the Security Council. The U.S. has also charged China with selling nuclear
and missile technology to Iran.


China and Iran already did a record $4 billion worth of two-way business in
2003. Projects included China's building of the first stage of Tehran's Metro
and a contract to build a second link worth $836 million. China will be the
top contender to build four other planned lines, including a 19 mile track to
the airport. In February 2003, Chery Automobile Company, the eighth-largest
automaker in China, opened its first overseas production plant in Iran. Today,
it manufactures 30,000 Chery cars annually in northeastern Iran. Beijing is
also negotiating to construct a 240 mile pipeline from Iran to the northern
Caspian Sea to connect with the long-distance Kazakhstan to Xinjiang pipeline
that it began building in October 2004. The Kazakh pipeline has a capacity to
deliver 10 million tons of oil to China per year. Despite American bluster and
belligerence, Iran is anything but isolated in today's world.

Coming to Terms with China

We play the Japan card, they play Persia. :arrow: :arrow: :arrow:

America and China, natural friends
On the issue of Taiwan, the United States would be wise to deal with China alone. After all, anti-American sentiment in China is shallow. Many Chinese people continue to admire America and they also realize that China needs the United States to maintain a stable international order.

Originally Posted by Steve Barrera

After all, anti-American sentiment in China is shallow.

Never underestimate the depth of anti-American sentiment. I don't

Originally Posted by Steve Barrera

America and China, natural friends
On the issue of Taiwan, the United States would be wise to deal with China alone. After all, anti-American sentiment in China is shallow. Many Chinese people continue to admire America and they also realize that China needs the United States to maintain a stable international order.

We are about as natural of friends as the US and Japan were in the 20's and 30's.

Originally Posted by Peter Gibbons

We are about as natural of friends as the US and Japan were in the 20's and 30's.

Especially when you factor in the 'two-biggest-kids-on-the-block' factor.

Originally Posted by Sabinus Invictus

Originally Posted by Peter Gibbons

We are about as natural of friends as the US and Japan were in the 20's and 30's.

Especially when you factor in the 'two-biggest-kids-on-the-block' factor.

You've watched Red Dawn recently, haven't you?

Originally Posted by Peter Gibbons

Originally Posted by Sabinus Invictus

Originally Posted by Peter Gibbons

We are about as natural of friends as the US and Japan were in the 20's and 30's.

Especially when you factor in the 'two-biggest-kids-on-the-block' factor.

You've watched Red Dawn recently, haven't you?

Nope. Just happened to remember that line from said movie. Though I've always felt that the producers left out one vital element from the story line - those 'Americans' who enthusiastically rally to the Soviets, and are even willing to fight alongside them against their own country.

Originally Posted by Sabinus Invictus

Originally Posted by Peter Gibbons

Originally Posted by Sabinus Invictus

Originally Posted by Peter Gibbons

We are about as natural of friends as the US and Japan were in the 20's and 30's.

Especially when you factor in the 'two-biggest-kids-on-the-block' factor.

You've watched Red Dawn recently, haven't you?

Nope. Just happened to remember that line from said movie. Though I've always felt that the producers left out one vital element from the story line - those 'Americans' who enthusiastically rally to the Soviets, and are even willing to fight alongside them against their own country.

Don't worry, the university professors you're concerned about, though they have disproportionate influence to their numbers, are not as big a threat as you think.

Surprise attack a possibility

China Plans Surprise Attack on Taiwan
by James Dunnigan
April 4, 2005

China is apparently planning an ?out-of-the-blue? (OOTB) attack on Taiwan, that will initially consist mainly of missiles, warplanes, paratroopers and troops out on "training exercises". What this means is that, during what appears to be peacetime maneuvers, the troops involved will suddenly move against a nearby nation and invade. This tactic was developed by Russia during the Cold War, but never used. They prepared for it by holding large scale training exercises twice a year, near the border with West Germany. The Russian troops were all ready to practice, or go to war. An OOTB attack could be ordered by having the troops to cross the border and attack NATO forces, who would have insufficient warning to deal with the sudden offensive. NATO finally caught on to this plan, and put the troops on alert during the Russian field exercises. The OOTB was most noticeably used, and successfully at that, when the Russian trained Egyptian army surprised the Israelis and recaptured the Suez canal in 1973.

If everyone is on to OOTB attacks, how does China expect to get away with it? Especially when it would involve an amphibious operation involving at least ten hours time at sea for the ships of the amphibious force. The exact details are kept secret, but the plan involves using over 600 ballistic missiles, and several hundred warplanes, which China has stationed within range of Taiwan. Within an hour, the missiles could hit Taiwanese anti-aircraft missile launchers, radars, airbases, ships in harbor and army barracks and combat vehicles. Launch the attack in the pre-dawn hours, and you catch most of the troops in their barracks, and the ships, warplanes and tanks lined up and vulnerable. Amphibious troops would already be on their ships, for an amphibious exercises, escorted by numerous warships. As the amphibious fleet headed for Taiwan, hundreds of Chinese warplanes would return to hit whatever targets had been missed.

Taiwanese commanders have responded with plans to keep warships at sea and some aircraft in the air at all times during Chinese exercises. Even 900 ballistic missiles, which the Chinese will have in place during the next few years, would not be sufficient to shut down the Taiwanese armed forces. But if the missiles, and air strikes soon thereafter, could do enough damage to prevent the first wave of amphibious ships from getting hit bad, Taiwan would be in big trouble. In fact, if the Chinese could get control of the air over Taiwan for a day or so, three Chinese airborne divisions could be dropped on Taiwan as well.

Taiwan has always expected assistance from the U.S. Navy and Air Force. But without advance warning to get a carrier or two into the area, and a few hundred U.S. Air Force planes alerted for movement to Taiwan, Japan and Guam, the American assistance would be too late. Thus, for Taiwan, an OOTB attack, which the Chinese appear to be preparing to carry out, is something to worry about.

Damn China to hell if they pull such a brazen action.