Originally Posted by Distinguished Toastmaster

Originally Posted by Tristan Jones

You are right, I have conculded China is pretty near North America on the saeculum, being up to 4 years behind is pretty close enough. I am not sure if the Tiananmen Square massacre was a 2T or 3T event, I am trending towards 3T myself.

Maybe it was the catalyst for the end of the 2T.

My thought exactly.

catfishncod wrote:

* approximately in line with Europe, Japan, Korea, India, and Israel/Palestine, whose turnings are timed about the same way. Israel and Palestine, of course, start with the Israeli War of Independence / Naqba. Europe's First Turning started with the Berlin Airlift in 1949, which hammered down the Cold War boundaries and guaranteed the time and ability to rebuild. Japan's begins with the end of occupation in 1951; Korea's with the end of the Korean War, 1953; India's, with Indian independence, 1950.

Uhm, a couple of problems. The Berlin airlift began in 1948. It ended in 1949. Do you mean the start or the end of the lift?

I see Britain as seperate from Europe, since it is an island off of the coast of Europe and although there was lot of damage, it was not occupied like a lot of countries on the contient, (unless you considered our troops that were there from 1942-1944 as an occupation army), so it thereby escaped the major ravishes that occurred on the continent, I see their crisis as ending in 1947. And among the reasons is their giving up the crown jewel of their empire, India, in 1947 (not 1950), a lot sooner than the have actually planned, which led, in turn, to the creation of the states of India and East and West Pakistan, the later now being the state of Bangladesh.

With Israel/Palestine, the War of Independence was fought in 1948, after Israel was declared an Independent entity, along with what was suppose to be a Palestinan state. I hope you haven't forgotten that before that war, the Jews of Palestine conducted a gurellia campaign against the British from about the end of WWII to the British withdrawl in '48, along with growing animosity between Jews and Palestian Arabs before the war.
Do you see the war as the final climax of that crisis, especially since it led to the creation of the state of Israel and the expulsion of the Palestians, or is there another point where you see the end of the Crisis there?

Stanley '61

catfishncod wrote:

Don't forget that China's Crisis was later than ours! It began with the Japanese invasion of Manchuria, 1931, and ended with the founding of the People's Republic, 1950. This makes Hu Jintao a bona fide Silent.

I did say take it how ever you want, especially as I'd never said that he was a silent or a prophet. But, he is old enough to have some prophet mentality in his makeup, which should still be some cause for worry if he decides to follow along with those of the generation younger then him, if it does turn out he's a silent. Especially if he decides to lead China in an invasion of Taiwan. As for China's last crisis, the last stage of the Chinese Civil War was in 1946-1949? And the People's Republic of China was proclaimed in 1949 on October 1, while the Republic of China's government moved to its present capital of Taipei, Tawain in December 1949. So, why did you think the People's Republic started in 1950? Especially since it have to have been in power long enough for it to be involved in the Korean Conflict of 1950-1953.

Combine this with the fact that elders, not midlifers, are the most empowered generation in Chinese culture, and you'll see why China is still midway through its Third Turning -- a Third Turning that began in 1989 with Tiananmen Square (which ended the Cultural Revolution Awakening, 1968). This makes China:

The Tiananmen Square Massacre was the end of the Awakening? Hmm, maybe. But, what information do you have for Silents to be the ones in charge at the moment, and not Prophets?

Stanley '61

Dear catfishncod,

Originally Posted by catfishncod

> Don't forget that China's Crisis was later than ours! It began
> with the Japanese invasion of Manchuria, 1931, and ended with the
> founding of the People's Republic, 1950. This makes Hu Jintao a
> bona fide Silent.

> Combine this with the fact that elders, not midlifers, are the
> most empowered generation in Chinese culture, and you'll see why
> China is still midway through its Third Turning -- a Third Turning
> that began in 1989 with Tiananmen Square (which ended the Cultural
> Revolution Awakening, 1968). This makes China:

> * approximately in line with Europe, Japan, Korea, India, and
> Israel/Palestine, whose turnings are timed about the same way.
> Israel and Palestine, of course, start with the Israeli War of
> Independence / Naqba. Europe's First Turning started with the
> Berlin Airlift in 1949, which hammered down the Cold War
> boundaries and guaranteed the time and ability to rebuild. Japan's
> begins with the end of occupation in 1951; Korea's with the end of
> the Korean War, 1953; India's, with Indian independence, 1950.

> * one quarter turning behind the United States, whose turnings
> start five years earlier (1963 for the Awakening, 1984 for the
> Unraveling... Crisis to hit this or next year)

> * one full turning behind the Balkan/Ottoman nations, whose Fourth
> Turning began in the 1989-1991 period. Iraq and Saudi Arabia are
> at least midway through their Fourth Turnings; I think Iraq is a
> little closer to First Turning due to the Iraq/Iran War.

> * one and one half turnings behind Afghanistan, whose First
> Turning began with the fall of the Taliban in 2001.

> I don't know about Russia -- I'm still not sure about the double
> whammy of WWI and WWII. Right now I think the effect may have been
> a double dose of Artists, fungooing their cycle and shifting it
> violently from the Balkan/Ottoman cycle (which was once the
> Byzantine cycle) to the European cycle. I just can't agree with
> Xenakis' contention that the thirty million dead in WWII had the
> effect as any other mid-cycle war on Russia. The children that
> grew up during WWII would have to be Prophets under that schema,
> for instance, and I can't envision that.

> Iran is another one I haven't figured out... this is either a high
> or an unraveling for them, but I don't know which. I don't know
> enough history of South America or Africa to tell about them, but
> it is most unlikely that the major disruptions of the world will
> come from either of those continents.

This is an interesting analysis, and obviously you've thought about
it a lot. Since you've invoked my name I'd like to give you my
thoughts based on my own analysis.

I've come to view most (though not all) of the world to be on two
different timelines - the WW I timeline and the WW II timeline.
America, Western Europe and Pacific Asia are on the WW II timeline,
and Russia and the Mideast are on the WW I timeline. Within each
timeline there may be a few years difference, but those are the two
main clusters.

The following additional comments apply:

• (*) I agree with your analysis of China, including the Tinanmen
  Square massacre as a catalyst for the 2t/3t turning, as Jenny
  suggested. I see China as in a very dangerous unraveling era that
  could crash any day. The triple threat is an internal civil war, a
  recession and financial crisis, and war over Taiwan. War with Japan
  is another possibility.
  
• (*) I don't see how the Korea War could possibly have been a
  crisis war for Korea, any more than it was for us. The Korean and
  Japanese crisis periods both ended in 1945, and the Korean War was a
  1T war.
  
• (*) The Mideast is on the WW I timeline, which included the
  destruction of the Ottoman Empire. Many of the WW I have already been
  refought as new crisis wars on the WW I timeline, including the
  Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, the Lebanon/Syria war starting in 1976,
  the Turkey/PKK-Kurd war of 1984-2000 and the Balkans wars of the
  1990s. These countries are now well into 1T or 2T eras.
  
• (*) However, the biggest of the WW I timeline wars has yet to be
  refought: the Russian revolution and the massive civil wars of the
  1920s. However, the Russian situation is complicated because Russia
  is so large -- 13 time zones across -- so there's no reason to be
  certain that the entire country is on the same timeline. For
  example, Stalin's Ukraine purge occurred in the 1990s, and the huge
  Chechen exile ended in 1944.
  
• (*) As for the 30 million people being killed in Russia during WW
  II, that can't mean that WW II was a crisis war for Russia, unless
  you also believe that WW I was a crisis war for England, France and
  America, who suffered similar death rates in WW I. I've found the
  death rate to be a weak indicator of crisis vs non-crisis wars. The
  huge genocidal civil war between forces led by Trotsky and Lenin was
  clearly a civil war, and it was settled in 1928. A new crisis war
  could not possibly have occurred so soon after, and in fact Russia
  pursued WW II in a relatively passive, non-genocidal manner.
  
  Incidentally, WW II was the third war in which this happened. There
  were three European crisis war invasions of Russia, a mid-cycle war
  for Russia in each case: Sweden during the War of the Spanish
  Succession (Great Northern War for Russia), France during the
  Napoleonic Wars, and Germany during World War II (Great Patriotic War
  for Russia). In each case, Russia won, as their enemies were
  swallowed up by the harsh Russian winter, but they were all non-crisis
  wars for Russia.
  
• (*) An interesting exception to the WW I / WW II timeline split is
  the Vietnam-Cambodia region, whose crisis wars were the French
  Indochina wars of the 1880-90s, and the American war and Cambodian
  genocide of the 1960-70s.

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com

Sabinus Invictus wrote:

Distinguished Toastmaster wrote:

Tristan Jones wrote:

You are right, I have conculded China is pretty near North America on the saeculum, being up to 4 years behind is pretty close enough. I am not sure if the Tiananmen Square massacre was a 2T or 3T event, I am trending towards 3T myself.

Maybe it was the catalyst for the end of the 2T.

My thought exactly.

And we all saw it live and in color. Or at least most of it that the Chinese would allow while Gorbachev was in their country.

Stanley '61

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Dear catfishncod,

Originally Posted by catfishncod

<snip>

> * one full turning behind the Balkan/Ottoman nations, whose Fourth
> Turning began in the 1989-1991 period. Iraq and Saudi Arabia are
> at least midway through their Fourth Turnings; I think Iraq is a
> little closer to First Turning due to the Iraq/Iran War.

<snip>

> I don't know about Russia -- I'm still not sure about the double
> whammy of WWI and WWII. Right now I think the effect may have been
> a double dose of Artists, fungooing their cycle and shifting it
> violently from the Balkan/Ottoman cycle (which was once the
> Byzantine cycle) to the European cycle. I just can't agree with
> Xenakis' contention that the thirty million dead in WWII had the
> effect as any other mid-cycle war on Russia. The children that
> grew up during WWII would have to be Prophets under that schema,
> for instance, and I can't envision that.

<snip>

The following additional comments apply:

• (*) I don't see how the Korea War could possibly have been a
  crisis war for Korea, any more than it was for us. The Korean and
  Japanese crisis periods both ended in 1945, and the Korean War was a
  1T war.
  

• I don't see why it can't have been a slightly longer Crisis. There was little fighting in Korea during WWII as it was Japanese territory for the whole war; the Korean War looked like unfinished 4T business (locally) to me. Of course it was 1T for the Great Powers that were doing most of the fighting... all but China, which as I said was at the 4T/1T cusp right at that moment.
  
  
  Originally Posted by Xenakis
• (*) The Mideast is on the WW I timeline, which included the
  destruction of the Ottoman Empire. Many of the WW I have already been
  refought as new crisis wars on the WW I timeline, including the
  Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, the Lebanon/Syria war starting in 1976,
  the Turkey/PKK-Kurd war of 1984-2000 and the Balkans wars of the
  1990s. These countries are now well into 1T or 2T eras.

Originally Posted by Mr. Robt. J. Samuelson in the Washington [i

Post[/i]]The threat of punitive tariffs is a stupid, dangerous way of pushing for more. But it's better than nothing.

Originally Posted by Virgil K. Saari

Originally Posted by Mr. Robt. J. Samuelson in the Washington [i

Post[/i]]The threat of punitive tariffs is a stupid, dangerous way of pushing for more. But it's better than nothing.

Hear, hear. 8)

Dear catfishncod,

Since it's hard to find things in this forum, I try as much as I can
to keep my stuff together, so I hope it's ok with you that I'm
answering this message in the "Objections to Generational Dynamics"
thread at:
http://fourthturning.com/forums/view...=129346#129346

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com

Located about 100 miles north of Shanghai in Jiangsu province, Huaxi has been described in the domestic media as both a "paradise" and a "dictatorship". While its residents are nominally richer than any other community, they have less time and freedom to spend their money. Bars and restaurants close before 10pm so that workers do not oversleep. Holidays are scarce. And villagers get little cash from their paper assets. Eighty per cent of their annual bonus and 95% of their dividend must be reinvested in the commune. If they leave the village, this paper wealth disappears.

In China's richest village, peasants are all shareholders now - by order of the party
Model community with spectacular industrial growth owes as much to feudalism as to communism 10 May 2005 number of the Guardian (UK)

Newsweek or Time (I forget which) recently had a special report on China.

Originally Posted by Virgil K. Saari

Located about 100 miles north of Shanghai in Jiangsu province, Huaxi has been described in the domestic media as both a "paradise" and a "dictatorship". While its residents are nominally richer than any other community, they have less time and freedom to spend their money. Bars and restaurants close before 10pm so that workers do not oversleep. Holidays are scarce. And villagers get little cash from their paper assets. Eighty per cent of their annual bonus and 95% of their dividend must be reinvested in the commune. If they leave the village, this paper wealth disappears.

In China's richest village, peasants are all shareholders now - by order of the party
Model community with spectacular industrial growth owes as much to feudalism as to communism 10 May 2005 number of the Guardian (UK)

I wonder if Bill Gates wants to transport this capitalism to the US. :shock:

And what happens if the bubble bursts?

You can check out any time you want, you just can't ever leave.

Originally Posted by Shemsu Heru

Originally Posted by Virgil K. Saari

Located about 100 miles north of Shanghai in Jiangsu province, Huaxi has been described in the domestic media as both a "paradise" and a "dictatorship". While its residents are nominally richer than any other community, they have less time and freedom to spend their money. Bars and restaurants close before 10pm so that workers do not oversleep. Holidays are scarce. And villagers get little cash from their paper assets. Eighty per cent of their annual bonus and 95% of their dividend must be reinvested in the commune. If they leave the village, this paper wealth disappears.

In China's richest village, peasants are all shareholders now - by order of the party
Model community with spectacular industrial growth owes as much to feudalism as to communism 10 May 2005 number of the Guardian (UK)

I wonder if Bill Gates wants to transport this capitalism to the US. :shock:

And what happens if the bubble bursts?

Actually, this 'brand new form of Capitalism' is just a dusted-off version of Fascism. If memory serves, the original version of that system was highly considered by Captialists at its time, too.

Hi. It's Pizza dude.

I doubt that the capitalist fogie Bill gates wants to transport that form of capitalism/fuedalism/communism hybrid to teh US. I think that he is rather praising the general movement of China towards a more capitalist and market oriented economy. This, by the way, still seems to place China in a Third Turning since they are discussing markets rather than collectivist economics. Privatization and shredding of all social safety nets such as those for workers guaranteeing housing, food, and a job as well as cradle to grave medical care seems to be the order of the day. Thre aslso seems to be no attempt to replace the Communist system of security with modern social welfare sytstems like those of Europe or the increasingly scarce ones in the US. As for Tianemen, I see it as the begning of their Unraveling. 1989 would be for te Chinese their equivalent of Reagan's first term. The killings at Tianemen might be likened to the firing of the air trafffic controllers. It is the bell ringing of the new order.

Originally Posted by Mr. Robt. Kagan in the Wa[i

Po[/i]]The security structures of East Asia, the Western liberal values that so dominate our thinking, the "liberal world order" we favor -- this is the "international system" into which we would "integrate" China. But isn't it possible that China does not want to be integrated into a political and security system that it had no part in shaping and that conforms neither to its ambitions nor to its own autocratic and hierarchical principles of rule? Might not China, like all rising powers of the past, including the United States, want to reshape the international system to suit its own purposes, commensurate with its new power, and to make the world safe for its autocracy? Yes, the Chinese want the prosperity that comes from integration in the global economy, but might they believe, as the Japanese did a century ago, that the purpose of getting rich is not to join the international system but to change it?

The Illusion of 'Managing' China

For educational purposes only


Sanford Russell - 12:21pm May 15, 2005 EDT (#26 of 28)
The Next Superpower

This book might appeal to those of you who want relatively recent and in-depth reporting on today?s China. You'll find more info on the book and reviews at the site I've given below. I've no financial interest in the book, believe me. Russ

http://www.powells.com/cgi-bin/bibli...1-0743257529-3

China, Inc.: How the Rise of the Next Superpower Challenges America and the World by Ted Fishman

Publisher Comments: China today is visible everywhere ? in the news, in the economic pressures battering america, in the workplace, and in every trip to the store. Provocative, timely, and essential, this dramatic account of China's growing dominance as an industrial super-power by journalist Ted C. Fishman explains how the profound shift in the global economic order has occurred ? and why it already affects us all.

How has an enormous country once hobbled by poverty and Communist ideology come to be the supercharged center of global capitalism? What does it mean that China now grows three times faster than the United States? That China uses 40 percent of the world's concrete and 25 percent of its steel? What is the global impact of 300 million rural Chinese walking off their farms and heading to the cities in the greatest migration in human history? Why do nearly all of the world's biggest companies now have large-scale operations in China? What does the corporate march into China mean for workers left behind in America, Europe, and the rest of the world? Meanwhile, what makes China's emerging corporations so dangerously competitive? What could happen when China will be able to manufacture nearly everything ? computers, cars, jumbo jets, and pharmaceuticals ? that the United States and Europe can, at perhaps half the cost? How do these developments reach around the world and straight into the lives of all Americans?

These are ground-shaking questions, and China, Inc. provides answers. Veteran journalist and former commodities trader Ted C. Fishman paints a vivid picture of the megatrends radiating out of China. Fishman's account begins with the burgeoning output of China's vast low-cost factories and the swelling appetite of its 1.3 billion consumers, both of which are being driven by historically unprecedented infusions of foreign capital and technological know-how. Traveling through China's frenetic landscape of growth, Fishman visits the factories, markets, streets, stores, towns, and cities where the story of Chinese capitalism is being lived by one-fifth of all humanity. Fishman also draws on interviews with Chinese, American, and European workers, managers, and executives to show how China will force all of us to make big changes in how we think about ourselves as consumers, workers, citizens, and even as parents. The result is a richly engaging work of penetrating, up-to-the-minute reportage and brilliant analysis that will forever change how readers think about America's future.

Review: "A lively, fact-packed account of China's spectacular, 30-year transformation from economic shambles following Mao's Cultural Revolution to burgeoning market superpower, this book offers a torrent of statistics, case studies and anecdotes to tell a by now familiar but still worrisome story succinctly. Paid an average of 25 cents an hour, China's workers are not the world's cheapest, but no nation can match this 'docile and capable industrial workforce, groomed by generations of government-enforced discipline,' as veteran business reporter (and Chicago Mercantile trading firm founder) Fishman characterizes it. Since Mexican wages were (at the time) four times those of China, NAFTA's impact has been dwarfed by China's explosive growth (about 9.5% a year), and corporations and entrepreneurs operating in China have few worries about minimum wages, pensions, benefits, unions, antipollution laws or worker safety regulations. For the U.S., Fishman predicts more of what we're already seeing: deficits, declining wages and the squeezing of the middle class. His solutions (revitalize education, close the trade gap) are not original, but some of his statistics carry a jolt: since 1998, prices in the U.S. have risen 16%, but they've fallen in nearly every category where China is the top exporter; a pair of Levis bought at Wal-Mart costs less today, adjusted for inflation, than it did 20 years ago ? though the company no longer makes clothes in China. First serial to the New York Times Magazine; author tour." Publishers Weekly (Copyright Reed Business Information, Inc.)

'Beijing's bitch'

Originally Posted by Guardian Unlimted Newsblog

News that Microsoft had joined forces with the Chinese government to ban words such as "democracy", "human rights" and "freedom" from its weblog service, MSN Spaces, had set “the blogosphere a-buzzin’," remarked Tim Bray at his Ongoing blog. Bray was not alone, writes Toby Manhire, in condemning the US company for agreeing to "be Beijing’s bitch to buy some bloggers".

Roger L Simon, too, was aghast to see Microsoft "playing footsie with [a] fascist regime". Bill Gates had revealed himself to be "a moral weakling". That said, Simon could not "imagine any self-respecting blogger would even consider using MSN Spaces while this policy continues. That would be cooperating with totalitarianism, obviously the antithesis of what we are trying to do."

:arrow: :arrow: :arrow:

Originally Posted by Virgil K. Saari

'Beijing's bitch'

Originally Posted by Guardian Unlimted Newsblog

News that Microsoft had joined forces with the Chinese government to ban words such as "democracy", "human rights" and "freedom" from its weblog service, MSN Spaces, had set “the blogosphere a-buzzin’," remarked Tim Bray at his Ongoing blog. Bray was not alone, writes Toby Manhire, in condemning the US company for agreeing to "be Beijing’s bitch to buy some bloggers".

Roger L Simon, too, was aghast to see Microsoft "playing footsie with [a] fascist regime". Bill Gates had revealed himself to be "a moral weakling". That said, Simon could not "imagine any self-respecting blogger would even consider using MSN Spaces while this policy continues. That would be cooperating with totalitarianism, obviously the antithesis of what we are trying to do."

:arrow: :arrow: :arrow:

Gates hasn't been called the "Dark Lord" for nothin'.

Could the unthinkable happen? A devaluation of the yuan. Check out this alarming article:
http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusin...10002105.shtml

Originally Posted by Boean

Could the unthinkable happen? A devaluation of the yuan. Check out this alarming article:
http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusin...10002105.shtml

Well that's an interesting twist on things! More fodder for conflict.

Originally Posted by Peter Gibbons

Originally Posted by Guardian Unlimited Newsblog

News that Microsoft had joined forces with the Chinese government to ban words such as "democracy", "human rights" and "freedom" from its weblog service, MSN Spaces, had set “the blogosphere a-buzzin’," remarked Tim Bray at his Ongoing blog. Bray was not alone, writes Toby Manhire, in condemning the US company for agreeing to "be Beijing’s bitch to buy some bloggers".

Roger L Simon, too, was aghast to see Microsoft "playing footsie with [a] fascist regime". Bill Gates had revealed himself to be "a moral weakling". That said, Simon could not "imagine any self-respecting blogger would even consider using MSN Spaces while this policy continues. That would be cooperating with totalitarianism, obviously the antithesis of what we are trying to do."

Gates hasn't been called the "Dark Lord" for nothin'.

I don't want to appear to be reflexively defending my current employer, but a few observations are in order:

1) Ballmer makes the business decisions for MS, not Gates.

2) It's the "Borg", not the "Dark Lord." Git yer metaphors straight.

3) Yahoo has been practicing this self-censorship in China (and France and Germany) for years. People are only all over this because "It's Microsoft -- aiiyee!!" Various self-important residents of the blogosphere will bang their chests over it for a while until they get bored (ooh, shiny); meanwhile, as many of the proles will continue using MSN as did before.

4) I have the feeling that if MSN China had instead published some press release to the effect that they intend to publicly violate Chinese press restrictions, not only would they have been shut down immediately (with heavy punitive sanctions), the blogosphere would still have been up in arms about Microsoft's "disrespect for law" and used it as an excuse to once again bring up the antitrust case.

Once an evil empire, always an evil empire, I guess. If people don't think MS is capable of changing in response to criticism, why should I (or anybody else) bother to listen to that criticism?

Hey Rick, where've you been?

Some important Russian dates might be
1905 this was the warm up to 1918.
1918-1920 the overthrow of the monarchy, Kerensky government. Bolsheviks seize power.
1924 - 1949 Death of Lenin, Rise of Stalin, Purges, Deportation, "Great Patriotic War"
1953 Death of Stalin, rise of Khrushchev, "thaw"
1968 Prague Spring,
1979-1985 Invasion of Afghanistan
1984 Death of Chernenko, last "GI" CPSU president
1985-1991 Rise of Gorbachev, Glasnost, Perestroika, Dissolution of USSR
1998Economic Crisis
2004-5Beslan, Khodorovsky conviction, Putin strengthens grip on power

From this I could say that 1905-1928 would be Russia's unraveling, a real unraveling, that came together with Stalin's consolidation of power in 1928. Stalin was, in effect, the new tsar.

1928 through 1949 would be the crisis. (1949 was the last year of bif deportations). The late 40s also marked the start of the Cold War.

1949 - 1968 With the exception of Hungary in 1956, a relatively peaceful time in the USSR. The Soviet "High." Broken by the Prague Spring.

1968 - 1985 The Soviet "Awakening".

1985 - present Russian Unraveling begins again.

Russia's next crisis will come again. Putin is very worried about a "Velvet Revolution" occuring on his home turf. When it comes, and it will, the new Russian crisis will begin.

Originally Posted by Peter Gibbons

Hey Rick, where've you been?

Busy, getting my marriage, my job and my personal life back on track.

Among other things, I promised my wife that I'd spend less time chatting with total strangers and more time talking to her.


Now that I'm settled in my new job at MS, getting counseling and medication, and jogging again, my head is clear enough to spend some time posting here again.