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Thread: China - Page 16







Post#376 at 12-17-2010 11:10 AM by pizal81 [at China joined May 2010 #posts 2,392]
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I wonder when China's bubble will actually burst. There are forecasts of just that, but it seems like nobody is really worried about it. People continue to invest in housing and my guess is a lot of people who couldn't afford a house in the first place aren't going to be able to pay.
This is presupposing that the crisis will be similar to the US's and have a housing bubble burst, but the signs are there. Earlier I posted a link talking about how all the empty apartments in China could house about half the US. Where I live there are tons of vaccant complexes, but the price of houses keeps going up. If that isn't a bubble I don't know what is. I am worried because if China goes into crisis mode it is no holds barred and I am concerned for everyone involved.







Post#377 at 02-28-2011 07:08 AM by pizal81 [at China joined May 2010 #posts 2,392]
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I can't believe I'm the last person to post on this thread. Just read an article about democracy protests in China. They are happening, but are unorganized and haven't really taken root. Also China's civic order has unraveled enough for any such movement to really take hold. It really seems like late unraveling to me. They are concerned enough to see these protests as a real threat, but still have most of the power. They are being volient, but not lethal as far as I know.

This is a different article, but related to the same events.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110228/...hina_usa_media







Post#378 at 02-28-2011 10:36 AM by James50 [at Atlanta, GA US joined Feb 2010 #posts 3,605]
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Quote Originally Posted by pizal81 View Post
I wonder when China's bubble will actually burst. There are forecasts of just that, but it seems like nobody is really worried about it. People continue to invest in housing and my guess is a lot of people who couldn't afford a house in the first place aren't going to be able to pay.
This is presupposing that the crisis will be similar to the US's and have a housing bubble burst, but the signs are there. Earlier I posted a link talking about how all the empty apartments in China could house about half the US. Where I live there are tons of vaccant complexes, but the price of houses keeps going up. If that isn't a bubble I don't know what is. I am worried because if China goes into crisis mode it is no holds barred and I am concerned for everyone involved.
No one can tell when a bubble will burst, but there is no doubt one is building in China. Jim Chainos is a noted short side investor who is very open about his short positions on Chinese real estate. On a recent CNBC show, he talked about an amazing statistic. In the US and UK in 2005-6, construction got to 16% of the GDP. Today in China, construction is 70% of GDP. That is seven-zero! Chinese housing construction on a per-capita basis is 2.5 times the US rate in 2005.

James50
The whole modern world has divided itself into Conservatives and Progressives. The business of Progressives is to go on making mistakes. The business of the Conservatives is to prevent the mistakes from being corrected. - G.K. Chesterton







Post#379 at 02-28-2011 11:37 AM by ASB65 [at Texas joined Mar 2010 #posts 5,892]
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Quote Originally Posted by pizal81 View Post
I can't believe I'm the last person to post on this thread. Just read an article about democracy protests in China. They are happening, but are unorganized and haven't really taken root. Also China's civic order has unraveled enough for any such movement to really take hold. It really seems like late unraveling to me. They are concerned enough to see these protests as a real threat, but still have most of the power. They are being volient, but not lethal as far as I know.

This is a different article, but related to the same events.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110228/...hina_usa_media
I know you are there, so I'm wondering what your take is on this.

It is the third time in as many weeks that ambassador Jon Huntsman has set himself publicly against the ruling Chinese Communist Party's efforts to stamp out dissent.
Lines of police checked passers-by and warned away foreign photo journalists in downtown Beijing and Shanghai on Sunday after a U.S.-based Chinese website spread calls for Chinese people to emulate the "Jasmine Revolution" sweeping the Middle East and assemble in support of democratic change.
Organizers have called for another round of protests this Sunday, according to a newly established Facebook page called "Chinese Jasmine Revolution." Facebook is blocked in China and not widely used by Chinese.
"With the global call for freedom, we sincerely put our hopes on the safety and stability of Facebook, Google and Twitter, which will facilitate China's Jasmine blooming throughout our country and bring forward the fruit of democracy," the page's founders said on their Facebook page in English and Chinese.
[ For complete coverage of politics and policy, go to Yahoo! Politics ]

Before the designated protest time last Sunday, Chinese police warned foreign journalists to stay away, and many Chinese dissidents and rights activists have been detained or put under informal house arrest, apparently out of official jitters about the protest call.
An American news videographer was kicked and beaten repeatedly in the face with brooms and taken into police custody, witnesses said. Other reporters were detained by police and some were roughed up, including one from Taiwan whose hand was injured, they said.
Ambassador Huntsman, a former Republican governor of Utah who will soon leave his job in Beijing, said he had met with several of the reporters who had been detained or otherwise harassed.
I have heard different analysis on the news here mention China and feel that these uprising in the middle east will spread to China. Are you feeling tensions there? And do you think revolts could be on the horizon for China?







Post#380 at 03-10-2011 09:37 PM by pizal81 [at China joined May 2010 #posts 2,392]
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Quote Originally Posted by ASB65 View Post
I know you are there, so I'm wondering what your take is on this.



I have heard different analysis on the news here mention China and feel that these uprising in the middle east will spread to China. Are you feeling tensions there? And do you think revolts could be on the horizon for China?
Let's just say even if this stuff happened in my city I would probably only know about it from rumors and hersy unless I was actually there.







Post#381 at 04-06-2011 06:43 PM by TimWalker [at joined May 2007 #posts 6,368]
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Time Jan. 24 '11

Article about the test flight of China's new stealth fighter.

Also, Fareed Zakaria wrote that China's military seems to want to take a hard line against America.







Post#382 at 04-18-2011 01:15 PM by James50 [at Atlanta, GA US joined Feb 2010 #posts 3,605]
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China's over-investment in fixed assets continues. There will be a severe accounting in a few years.

As for those bullet trains, they are running empty. Here.

James50
The whole modern world has divided itself into Conservatives and Progressives. The business of Progressives is to go on making mistakes. The business of the Conservatives is to prevent the mistakes from being corrected. - G.K. Chesterton







Post#383 at 04-18-2011 02:51 PM by The Wonkette [at Arlington, VA 1956 joined Jul 2002 #posts 9,209]
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Quote Originally Posted by James50 View Post
China's over-investment in fixed assets continues. There will be a severe accounting in a few years.

As for those bullet trains, they are running empty. Here.

James50
Sounds like the opposite of the US -- we are underinvesting in infrastructure whereas China may be overinvesting.

Go figure.
I want people to know that peace is possible even in this stupid day and age. Prem Rawat, June 8, 2008







Post#384 at 04-19-2011 09:41 AM by pizal81 [at China joined May 2010 #posts 2,392]
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The problem, of course, is that no country can be productive enough to reinvest 50 percent of GDP in new capital stock without eventually facing immense overcapacity and a staggering nonperforming loan problem. China is rife with overinvestment in physical capital, infrastructure, and property. To a visitor, this is evident in sleek but empty airports and bullet trains (which will reduce the need for the 45 planned airports), highways to nowhere, thousands of colossal new central and provincial government buildings, ghost towns, and brand-new aluminum smelters kept closed to prevent global prices from plunging.
Some of these phenomenon are within walking distance from where I live. The overly large government buildings are especially annoying.







Post#385 at 04-25-2011 10:59 AM by pizal81 [at China joined May 2010 #posts 2,392]
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I found out something annoying from my girlfriend.

First, a little background. In Haikou banana's used to be dirt cheap you could buy a pound of banana's for about 5 cents at the lowest and usually about 25 cents. Well, the past year the price of banana's has almost tripled. Well, this especially annoyed Nancy so she asked a lady selling bananas why they had jumped in price. It turns out that since China announce that Hainan was now an "International tourist island" (I think that means tax incentives to build resorts and things that will attract tourism) Business men have been buying up the banana farmer's land reducing the supply.
I'm sure banana's aren't keeping Hainan's economy running, but it seems that shows lack of foresight. Reducing the food supply that much to build a bunch of resorts. Am I right about this?







Post#386 at 04-30-2011 04:49 PM by Deb C [at joined Aug 2004 #posts 6,099]
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Brought this over from the international thread.

According to Stephen Roach, a member of the faculty of Yale University, and Non-Executive Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, China is realizing that it is losing the largest consumer in the world, the United States. As Roach describes the reason for the loss, "As Americans move from the insanity of the boom to the sanity required by the bust." So China is making plans with broad steps toward economic power. But to do so, it needs more Zombie Consumers.

How Asia Copes with America’s Zombie Consumers

Stephen S. Roach

NEW HAVEN – Asia needs a new consumer. A post-crisis generation of “zombie consumers” in the United States is likely to hobble growth in global consumption for years to come. And that means that export-led developing Asia now has no choice but to turn inward and rely on its own 3.5 billion consumers.

Of course, this is not the first time that Asia has had to cope with the walking economic dead. Japan’s corporate zombies were at the epicenter of its first “lost decade” in the 1990’s. Sclerotic companies were put on life-support credit lines by their zaibatsu – like banking partners – delaying their inevitable failure and perpetuating inefficiencies and disincentives that resulted in a post-bubble collapse in Japanese productivity growth.

Similarly, the crisis of 2008-2009 led to zombie-creating bailouts in the West. From Wall Street to AIG to Detroit, the US was quick to rescue corporate giants that would have failed otherwise. Britain and Europe did the same, throwing lifelines to RBS, HBOS-Lloyds, Fortis, Hypo Real Estate, and others. In the West, the excuse was “too big to fail.” How different is that from Japan’s mindset nearly 20 years ago?

But the most prominent zombie may well be a broad cross-section of American consumers who are still suffering from the ravages of the Great Recession. Afflicted by historically high unemployment, massive under-employment, and relatively stagnant real wages, while burdened with underwater mortgages, excessive debt, and subpar saving, US consumers are stretched as never before.

Yet the US government has tried virtually everything to prevent consumers from adjusting. Going well beyond the requisite extension of unemployment-insurance benefits, the safety net has been expanded to include home-foreclosure containment programs, other forms of debt forgiveness, and extraordinary monetary and fiscal stimulus.

Compassion is part of the moral fabric of any society. But a fine line separates it from the “creative destruction” that is essential to purge a post-crisis system of its excesses. Japan crossed that line in the 1990’s, as its corporate zombies prevented the painful but necessary adjustments in its post-bubble economy. That could happen in the US if Washington continues to favor policies that condone the reckless excesses of the recent past and inhibit the deleveraging and balance-sheet repair that America’s zombie consumers now need for post-crisis healing.

Notwithstanding government life-support initiatives, US consumers seem headed for years of retrenchment. Consumption’s share of US GDP currently stands at a sharply elevated 70%. While that’s down from the high of 71.3% in early 2009, it remains fully four percentage points above the 66% norm that prevailed in the final quarter of the twentieth century.

Reversion to that earlier share is likely as American consumers make the transition from the insanity of the boom to the sanity required of the bust. That spells subdued growth in US consumption for years to come – with a predictably massive impact on global consumption. While the US accounts for only 4.5% of the world’s population, its consumers spend $10.3 trillion annually – by far the most in the world.

So, with US consumption growth likely to be restrained, who will take America’s place? Europe? Japan? I wouldn’t bet on either.

That’s where Asia fits into the equation. As an export-led region, Asia remains heavily dependent on end-market demand from consumers in the developed world. The export share of developing Asia’s 12 largest economies rose from 35% of pan-regional output in the late 1990’s to 45% in early 2007. Little wonder that every economy in the region either fell into recession or experienced sharp slowdowns when global trade plunged in late 2008. Decoupling was not an option.

Nor should Asia draw a false sense of security from all the hype currently being accorded to the hopes and dreams of a so-called “two-speed world.” Heavily dependent on Western markets, Asia must seek support from a new source of demand.

It should start by looking in the mirror. For developing Asia as a whole, internal private consumption currently stands at a record low of just 45% of GDP – down ten percentage points from the 55% share prevailing as recently as 2002.

It’s not as if Asian consumer demand is dormant. But at the margin, economic growth is heavily skewed toward exports and fixed investment as the primary means of absorbing surplus labor and spreading prosperity. In a post-crisis world – impaired by America’s zombie consumers – export-led Asia is in serious need of a pro-consumption rebalancing.

Nowhere is that more evident than in China. With private consumption having fallen to a record low of 35% of GDP in 2008 (fully ten percentage points below the Asian norm), China faces major rebalancing imperatives – all the more urgent if post-crisis consumption growth in the West remains weak.

That would be good news for East Asia’s other economies – namely, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. With relatively small populations – and a declining one in the case of Japan – these countries have no choice but to rely on exports and external demand to drive economic growth. In all three cases, China has replaced the US as their major export market.
http://www.project-syndicate.org/com...roach4/English
Last edited by Deb C; 04-30-2011 at 04:53 PM.
"The only Good America is a Just America." .... pbrower2a







Post#387 at 06-16-2011 04:11 PM by millennialX [at Gotham City, USA joined Oct 2010 #posts 6,597]
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China's "Born in the USA" Frenzy

Born in 1981 and INFJ Gen Yer







Post#388 at 06-16-2011 09:11 PM by pizal81 [at China joined May 2010 #posts 2,392]
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Yep, that is the plight of international anything especially where American and China are involved who are both notoriously strict about all this stuff. I'm just starting to work on getting Nancy's visa to the states, but it is going to be a huge headache.







Post#389 at 06-27-2011 05:10 PM by James50 [at Atlanta, GA US joined Feb 2010 #posts 3,605]
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We may have problems, but so does China.

On Thursday, more than six workers were beaten and taken away by local security guards as management sought to end a strike at a South Korean-owned factory in Panyu, a satellite city of Guangzhou, the capital of southern Guangdong province. Workers in blue uniforms confronted police, deployed in large numbers.

One of the detained employees, a 20-year-old migrant from Chongqing, was grabbed by the neck and dragged away. “They are thugs, photographing us, beating us anyway they please,” said a female co-worker to Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post. “My friend is a very frail girl, how can she take that brutality by so many men?”

Starting Monday, more than 4,000 employees had taken to the streets to protest low pay and harsh working conditions at the factory that produces handbags for upscale brands Michael Kors, DKNY, Burberry, Kate Spade, and Coach. Workers complained they were forced to stand during 12-hour shifts with only two toilet breaks, forbidden to drink water while on the job.

They also charged that the factory, operated by Simone Ltd., was feeding them blackened rice and other substandard food, for which deductions were made from their wages. “The Korean management treats us less than human beings,” said one worker. “The male managers walk into female toilets any time they please; we can’t contain our anger any more.”

Worker anger is evident across Guangdong, which has been hit this month by a wave of strikes. Hundreds of migrant workers fought police in Chaozhou in the eastern part of the province. In the middle of the month, in the industrial center of Dongguan, 2,000 employees struck a plant owned by Japan’s Citizen Watch to protest long working hours and low pay.
Read the whole thing.

Could there be a real sure enough 4T brewing in China?

James50
The whole modern world has divided itself into Conservatives and Progressives. The business of Progressives is to go on making mistakes. The business of the Conservatives is to prevent the mistakes from being corrected. - G.K. Chesterton







Post#390 at 07-07-2011 09:41 AM by pizal81 [at China joined May 2010 #posts 2,392]
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I found this quote in an article about the alleged death of former president of China. (President I thought it was Chairman) Anyway this quote came up and I was thinking that this change in government would be the government that a fourth turning catalyst would happen under. I don't think it could happen with Hu as president. He is an adaptive(42) and tries to keep things from falling about apart more than anything and it is possible that the leadership change could be the catalyst. The article is a very interesting look into how Chinese politics work.

Here are a couple of a the quotes then the article.

Current President Hu Jintao retires from office from late next year in a sweeping leadership overhaul, and the rumors about Jiang's health underscore the uncertainties around this.
But in China, the death of a senior leader can be cause for worry, and even spell disaster, for proteges and allies who are no longer protected.
http://news.yahoo.com/tv-report-chin...092510202.html







Post#391 at 07-07-2011 09:46 AM by pizal81 [at China joined May 2010 #posts 2,392]
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Xijinping the next chairman over China is from China's prophet generation born in 1953.







Post#392 at 07-28-2011 11:52 AM by JDG 66 [at joined Aug 2010 #posts 2,106]
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FWIW:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2011-07-27-china-strengthens-military_n.htm


The world has taken notice of China's new military posture, according to a poll released July 14 by the Pew Research Center's Global Attitudes Project. The poll found that 15 of 22 nations say China either will replace or already has replaced the United States as the world's leading superpower. Majorities or pluralities in all but four of the nations surveyed say China's increasing military might is a bad thing.







Post#393 at 08-02-2011 12:05 PM by JDG 66 [at joined Aug 2010 #posts 2,106]
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http://the-diplomat.com/2011/08/01/a...ed-to-clash/3/

...At the end of the PLA’s increasing capabilities are emboldening it to more directly challenge US military policies—such as the air and maritime surveillance activities—that it has long opposed but had to put up with. This being the case, confidence-building measures will have little effect. Why? Because the problem the two countries face isn’t the risk of accidental clashes due to misunderstandings. It’s the fundamental disagreement of principle between Beijing’s expanding notion of national sovereignty and the Pentagon’s insistence on freedom of movement in the global commons.







Post#394 at 08-06-2011 11:25 AM by pizal81 [at China joined May 2010 #posts 2,392]
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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-flays-US-over-credit-rb-3974888722.html?x=0

C
hina is on their high horse again. We'll see what happens when their catalyst hits.







Post#395 at 08-19-2011 10:30 AM by chrono117 [at Eau Claire, WI joined Oct 2006 #posts 73]
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Maybe China is "Crazy as a fox" with their construction boom creating all those empty cities. When the world economy crashes, there is sure to be a 4T revolution in China. Rioters will probably burn down Beijing and other financial centers. Let them burn, the leaders will say. They'll move to new cities and wait it out.

Then, they'll draft all the loyalist citizens (which will still number in the millions), convert all the idle Walmart toy factories into munitions factories, and take over as much of the world as they can.







Post#396 at 08-19-2011 10:45 AM by pizal81 [at China joined May 2010 #posts 2,392]
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/colleges/fight-ends-georgetown-basketball-exhibition-in-china/2011/08/18/gIQAs1zeNJ_story.html

D
id anyone see this on the news. A huge brawl broke out between China and the Georgetown. I've played some basketball here and I can tell you I understand how this could happen. When it comes to sports Chinese tend to be proud in a bad way. So a Chinese ref will undoubtedly call in favor of the Chinese team. The only difference is degree. So I'm sure the America players were complaining a lot.
The team they were play should be kicked out of international play for sometime. They keep getting fined for their street ball tactics. I'm really hoping if the government thinks it is necessary to make a statement they would apologize. That has about a snowballs chance in hell though. China as a country has been acting very self-righteous lately. I'd like to see some class and an apology.
I'll be watching the Chinese media to see what they are saying. The first reports were censored.







Post#397 at 08-20-2011 12:58 PM by JDG 66 [at joined Aug 2010 #posts 2,106]
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Quote Originally Posted by pizal81 View Post
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-flays-US-over-credit-rb-3974888722.html?x=0

C
hina is on their high horse again. We'll see what happens when their catalyst hits.
-Well, the PRC does have a legitimate beef, insofar as getting their interest and principle back at an uninflated price goes. Of course, that goes for anyone with US debt.







Post#398 at 08-20-2011 03:53 PM by James50 [at Atlanta, GA US joined Feb 2010 #posts 3,605]
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Quote Originally Posted by pizal81 View Post
Did anyone see this on the news. A huge brawl broke out between China and the Georgetown.
Its been all over almost every sports show.

James50
The whole modern world has divided itself into Conservatives and Progressives. The business of Progressives is to go on making mistakes. The business of the Conservatives is to prevent the mistakes from being corrected. - G.K. Chesterton







Post#399 at 08-22-2011 10:25 AM by pizal81 [at China joined May 2010 #posts 2,392]
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Quote Originally Posted by James50 View Post
Its been all over almost every sports show.

James50
Yeah, it was censored. here. I couldn't find it on any news station or major sports website. I did find a video of the brawl on a Chinese website, but that was taken down the next day. Like the article I'm about to post states the comments were pretty negative toward the Bayi team. One comment was funny. They said "The Army beating students, it's like a tradition." Here is an article that came out a little later.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/20/wo...asketball.html







Post#400 at 08-24-2011 10:41 PM by millennialX [at Gotham City, USA joined Oct 2010 #posts 6,597]
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Chinese Military grows rapidly

Born in 1981 and INFJ Gen Yer
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