Originally Posted by pizal81

I wonder when China's bubble will actually burst. There are forecasts of just that, but it seems like nobody is really worried about it. People continue to invest in housing and my guess is a lot of people who couldn't afford a house in the first place aren't going to be able to pay.
This is presupposing that the crisis will be similar to the US's and have a housing bubble burst, but the signs are there. Earlier I posted a link talking about how all the empty apartments in China could house about half the US. Where I live there are tons of vaccant complexes, but the price of houses keeps going up. If that isn't a bubble I don't know what is. I am worried because if China goes into crisis mode it is no holds barred and I am concerned for everyone involved.

I just got off the phone with my husband who is in China and getting ready to come home. He noted during our conversation that the exchange rate for currency between the dollar and yuan was pretty good. (Meaning he is getting more yuan for the dollar.) He commented that it is almost at the same levels it was 5 years ago. As opposed to 3 years ago when he wasn't getting nearly as much yuan for the dollar.

Well, 5 years ago both the US and Chinese economy seemed fairly strong things would have been more "equal" as opposed to 3 years ago when the recession happened here and across Europe. Then China was up and the rest of us were down. I also told him about how the stock markets here and in Europe are really taking a hit and they were talking quite a bit last night on the news about a double dip worldwide recession. (He does get out of the loop of what is going on with the rest of the world when he is there. Which is why he didn't know about how the Dow dropped nearly 400 points yesterday.) One thing I also heard someone mention during this discussion on the news was that China isn't doing all that great either and there were signs that their economy might very well be slowing. Apparently their manufacturing output is not as good as has been in recent years. It kind of sounds like what is happening with the rest of world is finally starting to effect China too. It certainly sounds like China's bubble may be getting ready to burst too.

My husband also backed up what you said about construction. He has been over there for a month now, and noticed a lot construction on buildings that seems to be halted. He said, "I look around and I see lots of lots of half completed buildings with no one working on them."

I have no idea what your husband is talking about on the exchange rate. I think the rate is as low as it has ever been and is not the same as 5 years ago. That's really strange that he would say that. The rate is 2 yuan to the dollar worse than 5 years ago, but that is actually from America pressuring China to appreciate it's currency so that we could have a chance to compete with them.

Originally Posted by pizal81

I have no idea what your husband is talking about on the exchange rate. I think the rate is as low as it has ever been and is not the same as 5 years ago. That's really strange that he would say that. The rate is 2 yuan to the dollar worse than 5 years ago, but that is actually from America pressuring China to appreciate it's currency so that we could have a chance to compete with them.

LOL...He was going on and on about what the exchange rate is now as compared to 3 years ago, as compared to 5 years ago, blah, blah, blah and giving me the actual dollar amount (which I was only half paying attention to because it means nothing to me. ) and throwing out all these different dollar amounts per yuan amounts, but the general impression of what he was telling me (the way I understood it) is that he is getting more yuan per dollar than what he was 3 years ago when he was there and that he had gotten a better rate 5 years ago than he did 3 years ago.

So forgive me if I misspoke saying it was the same as it was 5 years ago. But it sounds like the dollar was pretty weak 3 years ago and is now better.

Originally Posted by ASB65

LOL...He was going on and on about what the exchange rate is now as compared to 3 years ago, as compared to 5 years ago, blah, blah, blah and giving me the actual dollar amount (which I was only half paying attention to because it means nothing to me. ) and throwing out all these different dollar amounts per yuan amounts, but the general impression of what he was telling me (the way I understood it) is that he is getting more yuan per dollar than what he was 3 years ago when he was there and that he had gotten a better rate 5 years ago than he did 3 years ago.

So forgive me if I misspoke saying it was the same as it was 5 years ago. But it sounds like the dollar was pretty weak 3 years ago and is now better.

I'll think about forgiving you.

About half my money is in Yuan and half in USD that we I don't lose a whole lot apart from transfer fees. I do like it when the dollar is strong against the yuan though.

Hopefully Pizal81 can give us more info on this but it appears that a part of the Great Wall of China has collapsed due to unregulated mining.

Originally Posted by Xinhuanet

SHIJIAZHUANG, Oct. 19 (Xinhua) -- Unregulated mining has caused part of China's ancient Great Wall to collapse, sounding an alarm for protecting one of the country's signature relics as well as a UNESCO World Cultural Heritage site.

The damaged portion of the Great Wall is located in a remote area near the county of Laiyuan in Hebei Province, about 200 kilometers southwest of Beijing. The area is home to a dozen small mines, with some operating as close as 100 meters to the centuries-old wall.

Villagers and local cultural heritage protection officials told Xinhua that about 700 meters of the wall, which was built during the reign of Emperor Wanli during the Ming Dynasty (1573-1620), had already collapsed, and more walls and even towers are likely to collapse if the mining continues unchecked.

"This section of the wall is considered 'the crust of the cream' of the Ming Dynasty Great Wall. It is really a pity," said Guo Jianyong, a senior engineer with the provincial Ancient Architecture Studies Institute.

Construction of the first Great Wall dates back to the Warring States Period (475-221 B.C.) and, over subsequent centuries, walls were built in scattered, but strategic areas to defend against the invasions of northern nomadic tribes, historical data show.

Today, remnants of the Great Wall, mostly built during the Ming Dynasty, stretch over 6,700 kilometers from west to northeast China, spanning the provinces and regions of Hebei, Tianjin, Beijing, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Gansu.

Damage to the Great Wall by mining had previously been reported in recent years in Inner Mongolia, China's main coal reserve region, but the Hebei case suggests the problem might be common across all regions, experts say.

In Hebei, about 20 percent of the walls and towers can be rated "well or fairly preserved," while more than 70 percent have cracks, stand on shaky ground, or are about to collapse, provincial cultural protection officials said.

Unregulated mining.
I have no further comment at this time.

Here is a chart showing the yuan's appreciation against the dollar over the last few years. America has been pressuring China over the years to do this. I actually think it's not exactly a classy move on America's part. The Chinese are saying that we are spending their money in America.

If you look at the comments you'll see that most of the people don't think this will actually help the states, but from what I've seen so far it really is helping the states. They jobs are coming back from China. Africa really is a possibility, but many of the countries there are still too unstable. Plus with energy costs going up manufacturing across the world is less and less viable.

I think the made in China era is ending. We'll see if manufacturing comes back to the states or go somewhere else.

The Chinese can shout how we are spending their money in America, but on the other hand, perhaps they should do a bit more accounting, the kind that does not always fit on a balance sheet:1) Theft of intellectual property and technology from companies (or trying to blackmail individuals into relinquishing trade secrets; this is a face culture all too aware of the desire of Western companies to expand into their highly controlled market and howjust a nasty accusation could drive away millions from business)2) Outright cyber attacks on US intelligence and several incidents where tech has been stolen from universities, large companies with govt contracts (Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Booz Allen). Attacks on longtime allies like Britain, and sweet talking frenemies like Pakistan (who dumbly thinks it will be rewarded for its turning over intel, but will probably wind up as it started: like a baby whose diaper is full, sitting powerless to confront it is sitting in its own shit.)3) Repeated requests from multiple nations for the yuan to show its true value over the years not just by the US, but other nations for a total duration of nearly a decade (you cannot fool all the people all the time forever)4) Increasing signs that ancient instincts that long predate the Communist CCP are far from dead (South Korea, Japan, the Phillippines, Vietnam, and to a lesser degree Burma are not smiling and singing kumbaya with renewed attempts at a blue water Navy and several thousand years of Chinese emperors acting like Asia's loan shark)5) An increasingly angry American public at the loss of jobs, a public who is already showing signs of civil unrest and utter rage at the politicians who have forgotten the simple rules of Locke's second treatise on government (which also is incidentally the cornerstone of the entire American political psyche, in contrast to Confucian collectivism and subordination). This last point is extremely important to remember as the Chinese may have hugely miscalculated that the American public, when angered enough eventually WILL rebel and won't care if the tanks and guns come out because the population does not prize harmony for harmony's own sake.So, in summation, where is the incentive to spend a nickel on China when it has cost us so much? And why are they surprised that we are refocusing efforts on the Asia Pacific ( not to mention the cutbacks in the military are a clever ruse, designed to save dough on troop maintenence and investiture in drone tech, not to mention saving more bucks in the long term?)

Originally Posted by Mary Kate 1982

The Chinese can shout how we are spending their money in America, but on the other hand, perhaps they should do a bit more accounting, the kind that does not always fit on a balance sheet:1) Theft of intellectual property and technology from companies (or trying to blackmail individuals into relinquishing trade secrets; this is a face culture all too aware of the desire of Western companies to expand into their highly controlled market and howjust a nasty accusation could drive away millions from business)2) Outright cyber attacks on US intelligence and several incidents where tech has been stolen from universities, large companies with govt contracts (Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Booz Allen). Attacks on longtime allies like Britain, and sweet talking frenemies like Pakistan (who dumbly thinks it will be rewarded for its turning over intel, but will probably wind up as it started: like a baby whose diaper is full, sitting powerless to confront it is sitting in its own shit.)3) Repeated requests from multiple nations for the yuan to show its true value over the years not just by the US, but other nations for a total duration of nearly a decade (you cannot fool all the people all the time forever)4) Increasing signs that ancient instincts that long predate the Communist CCP are far from dead (South Korea, Japan, the Phillippines, Vietnam, and to a lesser degree Burma are not smiling and singing kumbaya with renewed attempts at a blue water Navy and several thousand years of Chinese emperors acting like Asia's loan shark)5) An increasingly angry American public at the loss of jobs, a public who is already showing signs of civil unrest and utter rage at the politicians who have forgotten the simple rules of Locke's second treatise on government (which also is incidentally the cornerstone of the entire American political psyche, in contrast to Confucian collectivism and subordination). This last point is extremely important to remember as the Chinese may have hugely miscalculated that the American public, when angered enough eventually WILL rebel and won't care if the tanks and guns come out because the population does not prize harmony for harmony's own sake.So, in summation, where is the incentive to spend a nickel on China when it has cost us so much? And why are they surprised that we are refocusing efforts on the Asia Pacific ( not to mention the cutbacks in the military are a clever ruse, designed to save dough on troop maintenence and investiture in drone tech, not to mention saving more bucks in the long term?)

Mary Kate- this sounds like a really good post, but could you please break it up a bit for badgers of very little brain? Unbroken blocks of text are a bit daunting when read before breakfast.

Thanks,

Pat

Wait until latr- I have to fix my ipad settings!!!

Given that the particular circumstances of the Cold War are past, will ties to East Asia dissolve during the 4T?

If someone had asked me a few years ago whether we'd be heading to war with China I probably would have laughed at that notion. Really thinking about it now, it definitely seems plausible. I think China claiming land that isn't theirs to claim and the response to that by surrounding nations is reminiscent of Japan during WW1-WW2.

http://news.yahoo.com/chinas-next-leader-xi-jinping-visits-white-house-081021273.html

Tell me if this doesn't sound like adaptive to prophet change in manner. Here's a couple of quotes.

Vice President Xi is set to replace the staid Hu Jintao as Communist Party leader late this year, then succeed him as president in 2013. Xi, 58, is viewed as more personable, and while his trip is unlikely to herald any policy changes it may signal his leadership style.

After his visit to China, Biden said he was impressed by Xi's "openness and candor." Xi has impeccable Communist Party credentials as the son of a famed revolutionary, but is viewed as more able to make personal connections than Hu and more willing to step away from the traditional aloofness of Chinese high office.

Originally Posted by pizal81

http://news.yahoo.com/chinas-next-leader-xi-jinping-visits-white-house-081021273.html

Tell me if this doesn't sound like adaptive to prophet change in manner. Here's a couple of quotes.

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I heard a news story that he lived in the US for a while. They interviewed the family he was boarding with.

From China's mouth to our ears.

Saying no to gunboat diplomacy

After Russia and China vetoed a UN Security Council resolutiononSyria on Feb

4, the UN General Assembly approved a resolution condemning the violence in Syriaon Feb 16. Though non-binding, the newly passed resolution will put more pressure on the Syrian government and might prove to be the beginning of future outside intervention.

Sectarian conflicts, geopolitical factors, and particularly the West's "divide and conquer"involvement have given rise to the intense and sharp contradictions in the Arab World, and Syria's internal clashes have provided an excuse for the West to get involved.The current Syrian crisis is not an issue purely concerning human rights protection as the West alleges. The West wants to topple the Syrian government and replace it with a pro-Western one. Syria is considered a problem in the West's Middle East strategy because of its close relations with Iran and Lebanon, which are hostile to the United States.

In order to play a part in the Middle East

,

the Arab League is willing to charge into the West's Middle East strategy

.

After solving the Syrian issue in a non-peaceful way, the West's

next target

no doubt, will be Iran.

.

A conclusion right out of the fortune cookie.

As one member of the international community

,

China is aware that it cannot realize its own interests without cooperation with the outside world

.

But China will also be alert to those Western countries that push too far.Having been invaded by Western powers, China understands the suffering that results.

So arising China will not repeat the errors of others

,

because the Chinese people believe that what you do not want done to yourself
you do not impose on others.

.

Maybe they could teach this so called Christian Nation a thing or two. Sounds like much needed wisdom to me.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion...t_14643422.htm

Originally Posted by Deb C

From China's mouth to our ears.

Saying no to gunboat diplomacy



A conclusion right out of the fortune cookie.



Maybe they could teach this so called Christian Nation a thing or two. Sounds like much needed wisdom to me.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion...t_14643422.htm

Isn't that Chinese proverb you quote much like our so-called Golden Rule?

Originally Posted by Brian Beecher

Isn't that Chinese proverb you quote much like our so-called Golden Rule?

Yes it is. I wonder if we live up to it though.

Originally Posted by Brian Beecher

Isn't that Chinese proverb you quote much like our so-called Golden Rule?

Every culture has it -- and rightly so; it's the most successful strategy for individual survival and thriving in social animals. Homo sap couldn't have achieved any degree of civilization at all if the 'golden rule' wasn't to some degree hard-coded into us.

The Chinese don't follow it. Look at their Tibet policy. Sometimes I think, "That could have been us." (Estonia) At least one Lithuanian student lit himself on fire in 1972 to protest Soviet policies. Anyway, the US wants regime change in Syria for the cited reasons, but China doesn't because it probably has good business relations with Assad and doesn't want to lose a client, as Russia and China did in Libya. Their sanctimonious BS may be the opposite of our sanctimonious BS, but that doesn't mean that it isn't sanctimonious BS.

Has anyone charted China's generations and cycles? I think it would be one of the most interesting societies to look at, since it was so ancient, and one of the first large scale nations to have a centralized government. I'm sure medieval china will be just as hard to track as medieval Europe, but I have a feeling one could find larger scale national trends that can be divided into turnings going further back than Europe.

I'm pretty certain China is in a crisis era or heading towards it in the very near future.

Their last awakening era action had to be Tiananmen Square, which means their last crisis era was the civil unrest of the 30s culminating in the civil war of the late 40s. (I mean the rape of Nanking definitely seems like a crisis era event or at the least trigger, they were invaded by another country. It's interesting that the invasion itself probably wasn't the meat of their crisis, but the civil unrest that followed. A recurring pattern in China's history is that of civil unrest, resulting in a crisis-like environment. China may seem in unison and conformist now, but they are heavily fragmented as a nation. There are plenty of underground organizations such as Unions and religious groups. (probably started by or consist of the elusive Chinese nomads)

I think China is pretty much in line with the US and Europe when it comes to turnings, maybe a few years off. If I had to guess, China is heading toward a crisis era in a few years, which would definitely heighten the US and Europe's situation. Didn't their housing bubble just crash recently? I can imagine that it's only a year or two before they have a total financial meltdown, they've also loaned out a lot of money to other countries making their banking situation very complex and inevitably heading for a collapse.

Originally Posted by Felix5

I'm pretty certain China is in a crisis era or heading towards it in the very near future.

Their last awakening era action had to be Tiananmen Square, which means their last crisis era was the civil unrest of the 30s culminating in the civil war of the late 40s. (I mean the rape of Nanking definitely seems like a crisis era event or at the least trigger, they were invaded by another country. It's interesting that the invasion itself probably wasn't the meat of their crisis, but the civil unrest that followed. A recurring pattern in China's history is that of civil unrest, resulting in a crisis-like environment. China may seem in unison and conformist now, but they are heavily fragmented as a nation. There are plenty of underground organizations such as Unions and religious groups. (probably started by or consist of the elusive Chinese nomads)

I think China is pretty much in line with the US and Europe when it comes to turnings, maybe a few years off. If I had to guess, China is heading toward a crisis era in a few years, which would definitely heighten the US and Europe's situation. Didn't their housing bubble just crash recently? I can imagine that it's only a year or two before they have a total financial meltdown, they've also loaned out a lot of money to other countries making their banking situation very complex and inevitably heading for a collapse.

In 2009 China was doing the same things America was doing in 1927, in terms of backing other nations who were already entering a Crisis. The effect is like a bunch of drowning people clinging to a weak swimmer with a cramp, eventually we're all going to be drowning.

~Chas'88

Originally Posted by Felix5

I'm pretty certain China is in a crisis era or heading towards it in the very near future.

Their last awakening era action had to be Tiananmen Square, which means their last crisis era was the civil unrest of the 30s culminating in the civil war of the late 40s. (I mean the rape of Nanking definitely seems like a crisis era event or at the least trigger, they were invaded by another country. It's interesting that the invasion itself probably wasn't the meat of their crisis, but the civil unrest that followed. A recurring pattern in China's history is that of civil unrest, resulting in a crisis-like environment. China may seem in unison and conformist now, but they are heavily fragmented as a nation. There are plenty of underground organizations such as Unions and religious groups. (probably started by or consist of the elusive Chinese nomads)

I think China is pretty much in line with the US and Europe when it comes to turnings, maybe a few years off. If I had to guess, China is heading toward a crisis era in a few years, which would definitely heighten the US and Europe's situation. Didn't their housing bubble just crash recently? I can imagine that it's only a year or two before they have a total financial meltdown, they've also loaned out a lot of money to other countries making their banking situation very complex and inevitably heading for a collapse.

I believe Pizal, who lives there, has said he feels they are in their late 3T. This would also jive with what Chas said and things I've heard from husband who has spent long periods of time over there during the past 5 or 6 years.

I believe Pizal, who lives there, has said he feels they are in their late 3T. This would also jive with what Chas said and things I've heard from husband who has spent long periods of time over there during the past 5 or 6 years.

Indeed, I've never been to China myself, but the massive growth in the past 10-15 years suggests something reminiscent of an Unravelling. A lot of people I've talked to have mistaken this for something like the America High of the 50s, but America certainly didn't have that much growth during the 50s high. This is suggestive of economic bubbles.

I remember reading somewhere about the Foxconn suicides at a plant in Shenzhen and that the town had actually been a quaint fishing village not too long ago. So China has gone through some huge technological leaps in the past 20 years. At the same time, I can't see this going on too much longer though, a crisis era is just around the corner for China.

Originally Posted by Felix5

Indeed, I've never been to China myself, but the massive growth in the past 10-15 years suggests something reminiscent of an Unravelling. A lot of people I've talked to have mistaken this for something like the America High of the 50s, but America certainly didn't have that much growth during the 50s high. This is suggestive of economic bubbles.

I remember reading somewhere about the Foxconn suicides at a plant in Shenzhen and that the town had actually been a quaint fishing village not too long ago. So China has gone through some huge technological leaps in the past 20 years. At the same time, I can't see this going on too much longer though, a crisis era is just around the corner for China.

IMO China looks like it's late in the Unraveling of an Advancement saeculum.

Isn't this a turn of the screw? I thought I would post this here instead of over at the Occupy thread because of the interesting conversation there. But with that said, this may go over to other threads.

China says US Human Rights 'Dismal'; Should Have No Standing to Criticize Others

America is lying to itself when referring to itself as the 'land of the free'

http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2012/05/26-5