Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

I think this 4T will primarily be a navel gazing event. We seem to have little additoinal appetite for foreign adventures, after 13 non-stop years of them. I'll assume this innoculates us from looking away for at least a decade. By then, this 4T should be settled or at least well defined.

As the hegemon, we will be looked-to for help everywhere, and our economy is still #1. I just can't see us taking-on the world's heavy lifting for a while.

We have a big pile of domestic problems and conflicts.

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

I think this 4T will primarily be a navel gazing event. We seem to have little additoinal appetite for foreign adventures, after 13 non-stop years of them. I'll assume this innoculates us from looking away for at least a decade. By then, this 4T should be settled or at least well defined.

As the hegemon, we will be looked-to for help everywhere, and our economy is still #1. I just can't see us taking-on the world's heavy lifting for a while.

Of course, many in the US felt the same way in 1938 or even as late as autumn, 1941.

The Revolutionary 4T for France started when they entered the American War of Independence, but they had no regeneracy until 1789, just 5 years before the Climax of the 4T.

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

What did some guy say to me recently?



For the life of me, I can't even remember the ********* name.

Nobody knows how this plays out.

Grow up. I've done some substitute school teaching, and I have had to deal with boilerplate profanity and insults. So if someone says

"I don't like this f***ing assignment"


I call the kid up to the desk and have him repeat his words without the gerund of the f-word so that he can recognize how pointless the word is. I tell him that he has just said the same thing only with much less ugliness because the f-word had nothing to offer but offense. Then of course I can discuss that we all have to do things that we don't like at the moment and whose purpose isn't obvious at the time. So instead of having to write someone up for a disciplinary transgression I teach a lesson while exposing my educational philosophy. It works.

Of course, "F*** you!" (which in anger literally means "Get raped!", although I have heard it in a college dorm room uttered with uncharacteristic gentleness by one gay male to another and that I found inoffensive -- back when most people thought homosexuals were freaks) gets a quick trip to the principal's office because those are 'fighting words', and I am not going to allow a fight to erupt on my watch. I treat "I will kill you!", which is even worse, much the same way... and I don't allow anyone to get away with saying "But I didn't really mean it!").

Needless to say, if I were a regular teacher I would need a union.

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

I think this 4T will primarily be a navel gazing event. We seem to have little additoinal appetite for foreign adventures, after 13 non-stop years of them. I'll assume this innoculates us from looking away for at least a decade. By then, this 4T should be settled or at least well defined.

As the hegemon, we will be looked-to for help everywhere, and our economy is still #1. I just can't see us taking-on the world's heavy lifting for a while.

Navel-gazing is 2T. What is most certain is that although we will have a Crisis it will be very different from the last one. This one started with the worst economic meltdown in roughly 80 years, but the recent one ended after about a year and a half instead of three years and did much less damage. That is a big difference. America is absolutely not going to war with a revived Third Reich or a revived Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere. It's not going to be like the last one in that there will be no war over slavery.

We still have our work cut out for us. We are still in need of some drastic and pervasive reforms from education to labor-management relations -- and probably divesting ourselves of our Imperialist tendencies. If we do badly this time we can institutionalize some nasty, intractable rot.

God, that sounds creepy. I could totally see you as one of those weird, middle aged losers taking advantage of some poor woman's illness or family emergency to have a captive audience for one of your long, rambling rants about Nazis, slavery, and the Hard Right. I can't blame those kids for telling you to fuck off. After all, who really wants to be lectured by some guy with no family, no career, and no life, just sitting around in his parent's house waiting to die.

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

God, that sounds creepy. I could totally see you as one of those weird, middle aged losers...

What sounds "creepy"?

Originally Posted by Eric the Green

What sounds "creepy"?

PBrower in a classroom. Although to be honest he sounds plenty creepy here.

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

God, that sounds creepy. I could totally see you as one of those weird, middle aged losers taking advantage of some poor woman's illness or family emergency to have a captive audience for one of your long, rambling rants about Nazis, slavery, and the Hard Right. I can't blame those kids for telling you to fuck off. After all, who really wants to be lectured by some guy with no family, no career, and no life, just sitting around in his parent's house waiting to die.

Many people think I am creepy because I think outside the box. Need I say why?

Many people are losers these days because they make a bad career choice in their 20s or because they aren't ruthless enough to get ahead in bureaucracies.

Jonathan, you seem creepy enough.

Who's Jonathan?

Look, man, whatever it takes for you to get yourself through the day. If you need to believe that you are who you are today because you're too smart and too moral for today's society, bully for you. Just don't be surprised if others aren't of the same opinion.

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

Who's Jonathan?

Look, man, whatever it takes for you to get yourself through the day. If you need to believe that you are who you are today because you're too smart and too moral for today's society, bully for you. Just don't be surprised if others aren't of the same opinion.

Sorry -- I got your name wrong, JORDAN.

Originally Posted by scotths

I'm going to disagree here. Not in your reasoning as to why there is a reactionary flood, but rather with the assertion that such a flood is unusual. Every saeculum seems to include a reactionary element as well as a progressive, moderate and conservative element. From a couple of saeculums:

English Civil War/Glorious Revolution:

Reactionary: James II attempt to assert a new form of Catholic modernity.
Conservative: Torries who supported the status quo, a strongly agrarian society based around the idea of limited capital and large inflexible state sponsored monopolies.
Moderate: More moderate whigs
Progressive: Puritan/Most Radical Whigs

King James II attempted to reassert catholicism and related government structures (ie. absolutism). After he was deposed, the new King William disappointed many of the more radical whigs by attempting to take a more Moderate/Conservative path. Compromises such as an attempt at a "land bank" failed as they were unable to win support from either the whigs or the torries. In the end many of the whig ideas passed into reality. A national bank was created and tax policy modified in such a way as to strengthen industry at the expense of land ownership. Also, government monopolies (supported by the status quo torries) were weakened allowing the rise of competing industries. This created the conditions that allowed the competing agrarian and industrial societies to flourish in the soon to be United States.

Notably a disagree with the assertion that the result of the glorious revolution were to undo the previous saeculum (as the op asserted). To me this is most clearly a step forward and the obvious reactionaries failed substantially in their attempts.


Transcendental Awakening/Civil War:

Reactionary: Breckenridge and the secessionists.
Conservative: Those who wanted to maintain the union has 1/2 slave and 1/2 free (largely the supporters of Bell)
Moderate: Free soilers and others who supported a white dominant expansion of the united states while explicitly not wanting to free the slaves or to live among free blacks.
Progressive: Northern abolitionists with an eye towards a free and equal society for all races.

Lincoln had to build a coalition of northern abolitionists (in New England and other far north areas) and moderates (in the next tier of states) in order to win election and govern successfully. This led to difficulties and attacks from both sides, abolitionists upset that he wasn't attempting to end slavery and moderates concerned that he secretly was! It wasn't until it became clear that in order to succeed he needed to end slavery and that the moderate solution simply couldn't work was he able to do so without loosing the support of the moderates. In the end many of the "progressive" ideas of his day were implemented, but many weren't and the end result was a world that combined moderate and progressive ideas.

It seems (perhaps especially in a "spirtual" saeculum) that a strong reactionary movement exists in opposition to a strong progressive movement. A leader must pull together a coalition of progressive and moderate forces and chart a more moderate path until it becomes obvious that such a path will not work. This will lead to angry reactionaries attempting to portray the leader as more progressive then he is (and perhaps for a time may gain some traction) at the same time as progressive portray him as more moderate or conservative than he is. This leads to a period of strong dissatisfaction by most everyone which ultimately ends in an assertion of a reasonable agenda of progressive and moderate ideas that is able to become the new status quo.

Obama seems to be the "leader" this time around.

Originally Posted by TimWalker

Obama seems to be the "leader" this time around.

Dana Blankenhorn thinks so. He points out that the flood of hatred and contempt now being poured out on Obama was the lot of all Crisis Era* leaders.

He also suggests that the presidential candidate who will end up ratifying Obama's changes ... his political heiress ... will be a canny old Boomer with a great deal of political savvy. You know who. But read it for yourself.
*Which he defines as either a 4T Crisis or a 2T political upheaval.

http://www.danablankenhorn.com/

Right, it has been established that political realignments occur during 4Ts. 2Ts may experience realignment, or de-alignment.

Originally Posted by TimWalker

My own suspicion is that we are at an early stage of this 4T.

If the 4T start is 2008, as many believe, and it lasts 22 years (a not unreasonable assumption) we would be less than 25% of the way through. I would call that early.

Originally Posted by Mikebert

If the 4T start is 2008, as many believe, and it lasts 22 years (a not unreasonable assumption) we would be less than 25% of the way through. I would call that early.

If they are running roughly parallel, we're going into 1934 in a bit more than a week.

Originally Posted by The Grey Badger

If they are running roughly parallel, we're going into 1934 in a bit more than a week.

Won't we be able to figure that out by next summer, if indeed there is another dust bowl. We came pretty close during the summer of 2012, didn't we?

Are we really expecting parallelism with the last Saeculum (or any Saeculum, for that matter) to such an exacting degree? Some have suggested this Saeculum has tracked most closely to that of the Glorious Revolution. What happened in the fifth and sixth years of that Fourth Turning (1680-81 by Strauss and Howe's chronology). That may be a more clear link than 1934 if this Saeculum does track to the Glorious Revolution.

Ask and ye shall receive... (thanks be to Wiki)

With the Glorious Revolution Crisis one has to look at four distinct Anglo-American "spheres" as there's four unique crises occurring at once. Seven or more if you include Spanish, French, Dutch, etc.

1675 - 1704

ANGLO-AMERICAN SPHERE

English Sphere (Parliament vs. Monarch focus & England vs. Scotland minor focus)

• 1674 - England had gained nothing from the Third Anglo-Dutch War and so Parliament refused to keep funding the war.
• 1678 - Titus Oates warns of the "Popish Plot", sending the public and Parliament into an anti-Catholic frenzy.
• 1679 - Exclusion Bill attempts to exclude the Catholic Duke of York from inheriting, Charles II dissolves Parliament because he doesn't want Parliament to decide who inherits the throne
• 1680 - November 14 – The Great Comet of 1680 is first sighted; November 17 – Whigs organize pope-burning processions in London.
• 1681 - Parliament meets again and attempts to force through an Exclusion Bill yet again, so Charles II dissolves Parliament one last time and rules without one for the rest of his life while being funded by the French monarchy

New England Sphere (Massachusetts focus)

• 1675 - June - King Philip's War begins. The war was the single greatest calamity to occur in seventeenth-century Puritan New England. In the space of little more than a year, twelve of the region's towns were destroyed and many more damaged, the colony's economy was all but ruined, and much of its population was killed, including one-tenth of all men available for military service. More than half of New England's towns were attacked by Native American warriors. King Philip's War was the beginning of the development of a greater American identity, for the colonists' trials, without significant English government support, gave them a group identity separate and distinct from subjects of the Parliament of England and the Crown in England.
• 1681 - the Lords of Trade, who had decided for a variety of reasons to consolidate the New England colonies, issued quo warranto writs for the charters of several North American colonies, including Massachusetts. The Massachusetts writ was never served for technical reasons, and the charter was not formally vacated until the chancery court issued a scire facias writ formally annulling the charter on June 18, 1684. The proceedings were arranged so that the time for the colonial authorities to defend the charter expired before they even learned of the event.

Big Event Years:

• 1686 - The Dominion of New England is formed by decree of King James II which combines present day: New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine all as one province after the model of the Viceroy of New Spain. Andros attempted to introduce the Anglican Church to New England most Puritan colonists didn't like this example of big centralized interference on their religious beliefs, causing discord--the fact that James II was also Catholic ALSO caused a lot of grumbling
• 1688 - Beginning of King William's War and frequent raids and attacks between French, English, and Native populations
• 1689 - The Dominion of New England is overthrown when the news of the Glorious Revolution reaches its shores. A big moment includes the Boston Revolt which takes on Sir Andros himself and deposes him. After which a few colonies have no charters (Massachusetts & Plymouth primarily), which led to constitutional anarchy as people who opposed the old Puritan rule which had re-established itself saw the lack of an official charter meant that they had no right to collect taxes and thus refused payment along with other various forms of protest
• 1691 - Massachusetts, proto-Maine, and Plymouth Colonies are recommissioned a charter and united as one colony: The Province of Massachusetts Bay; this was done by William and Mary to prevent a Puritan monopoly (neither wanted a solely religious colony) and solve the problems of Massachusetts and Plymouth both lacking a charter, and so the radicals of Plymouth and the Puritans of Massachusetts had to learn to get along; and a proven fighter and frontiersman from proto-Maine (William Phips) was chosen to be the first governor--and being from Maine he decided to let his deputy governor (Cotton Mather--the old Puritan guard) handle things while he focused primarily on the problem of fighting King Williams' War up along the proto-Maine/Acadian border, thus giving the old Puritans free reign... *dark foreshadowing*This would have dire consequences in the following years*dark foreshadowing*
• 1692 - The Salem Witch Trials occur, which is then a frontier town often fearful of attack from the native population and French raiders; it also should be noted that after the agreed upon eccentrics and community outcasts were hung (Bridget Bishop & Goody Good especially--the revolutionary & the beggar), that some of the people brought to trial were known dissidents who had previously refused to pay their taxes during that Colonial anarchy or were stubbornly continuing to do so (Giles Corey for example didn't want to pay his wood tax to a church he didn't attend--his wife Martha was arrested and hung, and he got pressed to death by a large weight of stones by refusing to recognize the court's authority by testifying); and the old women relations to other "problem" families were usually accused by the afflicted girls, who just so happened to be the daughters of those aligned with the Old Puritan rule... (Rebecca Nurse) so yeah, that conflict along with neighborly squabbles over land boundaries played out.
• 1693 - After Phips' wife is accused of witchcraft, Phips puts an end to the shenanigans.
• 1697 - End of King William's War
• 1700 - 1710 - Familial relations to those hung for witchcraft in the Salem Witch Trials petition the government for recompense

Mid-Atlantic Sphere (Delaware - Pennsylvania focus)

• 1674 - New Netherland & New Sweden are returned to the English in exchange for the Dutch keeping Suriname at the end of the Third Anglo-Dutch War, both of which are re-incorporated into the Province of New York
• 1681 - William Penn gets a charter from Charles II to start a colony, with it to be called Pennsylvania (Penn's Woods) in honor of Penn's father Admiral Sir William Penn, carving the province out of land that had been part of the Province of New York; the Dutch organized counties of proto-Delaware were included as part of Pennsylvania and were joined in union until 1704 when the Upper Counties (Pennsylvania) and the Lower Counties (Delaware) voted to still be managed by William Penn's family but to govern their own affairs; border disputes with Maryland began almost immediately due to the vague nature of the charter given by Charles II.

Big Event Years:

• 1682 - Founding of Pennsylvania, and Philadelphia; founded on the principal of Religious Tolerance
• 1684 - Welsh Quakers establish the Welsh Tract by agreement with Penn that it's to primarily be a Welsh-speaking portion of Pennsylvania and a separate county from other established counties (includes parts of modern Montgomery and Delaware counties, and such townships/towns as Bala Cynwyd, Radnor, Haverford, North Wales, Upper and Lower Merion, etc.)
• For the rest of the crisis Pennsylvania and Delaware have issues concerning establishing who should make the laws and who truly had control over the colonies--the Proprietor (who could be swept away at any second by a royal appointment) or the Assemblies (which would be a representation of the people). This causes the young colony to go through several "frames of government" (1682, 1683, 1696, & 1701), before landing on the 1701 which established a strong assembly control and that the governor could appoint a council to advise the assembly, but would have no part in the legislative process. The Frame of 1701 also was a large step in assuring Quaker values of basic Human rights. This back and forth also included a few periods of de facto anarchy as Penn was out of the colony and the assembly would refuse to meet or enforce laws until the issue could be settled.

Southern Sphere (Maryland - Virginia focus)

• 1675 - The Elder Lord Baltimore dies, leading Charles Calvert (the founder and governor of Maryland) to return to England to ascend to the Barony. His political enemies now took the opportunity of his absence to launch a scathing attack on the proprietarial government, publishing a pamphlet in 1676 titled A Complaint from Heaven with a Hue and Crye...out of Maryland and Virginia, listing numerous grievances, and in particular complaining of the lack of an established church. Neither was the Church of England happy with Maryland's experiment in religious tolerance. The Anglican minister John Yeo wrote scathingly to the Archbishop of Canterbury, complaining that Maryland was "in a deplorable condition" and had become "a sodom of uncleanliness and a pesthouse of iniquity". This was taken sufficiently seriously in London that the Privy Council directed Calvert to respond to the complaints made against him.
• 1676 - Bacon's Rebellion in Virginia - the colony's disorganized frontier political structure combined with accumulating grievances (including leaving Bacon out of his inner circle, refusing to allow Bacon to be a part of his fur trade with the Indians, Doeg tribe Indian attacks) helped to motivate a popular uprising against Governor Berkeley. He had failed to address the demands of the colonists regarding their safety. Before an English naval squadron could arrive to aid Berkeley and his forces, Bacon died from dysentery on October 26, 1676. John Ingram took over leadership of the rebellion, but many followers drifted away. The Rebellion did not last long after that. The rebellion was first suppressed by a few armed merchant ships from London whose captains sided with Berkeley and the loyalists. Government forces from England arrived soon after and spent several years defeating pockets of resistance and reforming the colonial government to one more directly under royal control. About a thousand Virginians of all classes rose up in arms against Berkeley. The immediate cause was his recent refusal to retaliate for a series of Indian attacks on frontier settlements. This prompted some to take matters into their own hands, attacking Native Americans, chasing Berkeley from Jamestown, Virginia, and ultimately torching the capital. Modern historians have suggested it may in fact have been a power play by Bacon against Berkeley and his favoritism towards certain members of court. Bacon's financial backers included men of wealth from outside Berkeley's circle of influence. The alliance between former indentured servants and Africans against bond-servitude disturbed the ruling class, who responded by hardening the racial caste of slavery. While the farmers did not succeed in their initial goal of driving Native Americans from Virginia, the rebellion did result in Berkeley being recalled to England. Bacon's followers used the rebellion as an effort to gain government recognition of the shared interests among all social classes of the colony in protecting the "commonalty" and advancing its welfare. After an investigative committee returned its report to King Charles II, Berkeley was relieved of the governorship, and recalled to England. "The fear of civil war among whites frightened Virginia’s ruling elite, who took steps to consolidate power and improve their image: for example, restoration of property qualifications for voting, reducing taxes and adoption of a more aggressive Indian policy." Charles II was reported to have commented, "That old fool has put to death more people in that naked country than I did here for the murder of my father."
• 1681 - Lord Baltimore once again faced rebellion in Maryland, led by a former governor of the province Josias Fendall (1657–60) and John Coode (Coode would later lead the successful rebellion of 1689). Relations between the governing council and the assembly grew increasingly poor. Underlying much of the rancour was the continued slide in the price of tobacco, which by the 1680s had fallen 50% in 30 years. Also King Charles II had granted Penn a substantial but rather vague proprietorship to the north of Maryland. Penn however began building his capital city south of the 40th Parallel, in Maryland territory. Penn and Calvert met twice to negotiate a settlement, but were unable to reach agreement.

Big Event Years:

• 1684 - Baltimore traveled to England, both to defend himself in the dispute with Penn as well as to answer charges that he favored Catholics in the colony. He would never return to Maryland. Calvert left the province in the care of his nephew George Talbot, whom he made acting governor, placing him at the head of the Governor's Council. Unfortunately Talbot proved to be a poor choice, stabbing to death a Royal customs official on board his ship in the Patuxent River, and thereby ensuring that his uncle suffered immediate difficulties on his return to London. Calvert's replacement for Talbot was another Roman Catholic, William Joseph, who would also prove controversial.
• 1688 - November - Joseph set about offending local opinion by lecturing his Maryland subjects on morality, adultery and the divine right of kings, lambasting the colony as "a land full of adulterers".
• 1689 - Protestant Revolution of Maryland aka Coode's Rebellion - Puritan settlers had now become the majority of settlers overthrew their Catholic rulers when the news of the Glorious Revolution of 1688 reached their shores. The Lords Baltimore lost control of their proprietary colony and for the next 25 years Maryland would be ruled directly by the British Crown. The Protestant Revolution also saw the effective end of Maryland's early experiments with religious toleration, as Catholicism was outlawed and Roman Catholics forbidden from holding public office.
• 1693 - William and Mary College is founded
• 1698 - Jamestown Assembly building burns down a second time, causing the Colonial government to pack up and move to & rename what is now Williamsburg
• 1704 - An act was passed "to prevent the growth of Popery in this Province", preventing Catholics from holding political office in Maryland.

SPANISH AMERICA (New Mexico & Florida)

• 1672 - Due to a 1668 English privateer raid, the Castillo de San Marcos is built in San Agustin (St. Augustine), Florida which is the oldest standing fort in the United States to date. The Spanish did not import many slaves to Florida for labor, as it was basically a military outpost rather than a plantation economy like those of the English colonies. As the British planted settlements south along the Atlantic coast, the Spanish encouraged their slaves to escape for sanctuary in Florida. If the fugitives converted to Catholicism and swore allegiance to the king of Spain, they were given freedom, arms, and supplies.
• 1675 - In the 1670s drought swept New Mexico, causing famine among the Pueblo and increased raids by the Apache which Spanish and Pueblo soldiers were unable to prevent. The unrest among the Pueblos came to a head in 1675. Governor Juan Francisco Treviño ordered the arrest of forty-seven Pueblo medicine men and accused them of practicing "sorcery". Four medicine men were sentenced to death by hanging; three of those sentences were carried out, while the fourth prisoner committed suicide. The remaining men were publicly whipped and sentenced to prison. When this news reached the Pueblo leaders, they moved in force to Santa Fe, where the prisoners were held. Because a large number of Spanish soldiers were away fighting the Apache, Governor Treviño was forced to accede to the Pueblo demand for the release of the prisoners. Among those released was a San Juan (called "Ohkay Owingeh" by the Pueblo) Indian named "Popé" (aka Po'Pay).
• 1680 - August 21 - Pueblo Revolt: Pueblo Indians capture Santa Fe (New Mexico) from the Spanish in response to Spanish monks trying to force Catholicism on the native population. The Pueblo killed 400 Spanish and drove the remaining 2,000 settlers out of the province.

Big Year Events:

• 1692 - The Spanish return to Santa Fe and reoccupy it with little to no trouble.

FRENCH AMERICA

• 1675 - 1688 - Intermittant warring and disputes on the Acadian/proto-Maine border with Indian allies that will eventually break out into full war

Big Year Events:

• 1688 - The Wabanaki Confederacy forms; Start of King William's War
• 1697 - End of King William's War, Treaty of Ryswick
• 1702 - Beginning of Queen Anne's War
• 1710 - The Conquest of Acadia - has the effect of forcing most Acadians to move south to Louisiana

DUTCH AMERICA (New York focus)

• 1672 - Start of the Third Anglo-Dutch War (English forced into war by secret treaty with the French), the effects of which will forever change the outcome of history beyond the Mid-Atlantic as its after effects lead Charles II to marry his niece Mary to the Dutch Prince William of Orange in 1677; During the war New Sweden (which had been seized by the Dutch in 1655 from the Swedes) along with New Amsterdam is recaptured by the Dutch, during which three counties are established which will eventually transform into what is now Delaware
• 1674 - New Netherland & New Sweden are returned to the English in exchange for the Dutch keeping Suriname at the end of the Third Anglo-Dutch War, both of which are re-incorporated into the Province of New York

Big Year Events:

• 1689 - The English Revolution of 1688 divided the people of New York into two well-defined factions. In general, the small shopkeepers, small farmers, sailors, poor traders and artisans allied against the patroons (landholders), rich fur-traders, merchants, lawyers and crown officers. The former were led by Leisler, the latter by Peter Schuyler, Nicholas Bayard, Stephen Van Cortlandt, William Nicolls and other representatives of the aristocratic Hudson Valley families. The Leislerians claimed greater loyalty to the Protestant succession. On a report that the adherents of King James II were about to seize the fort and massacre their Dutch fellow-citizens, an armed mob gathered on the evening of 2 June 1689 to overthrow the existing government. The cry of "Leisler" was raised, and the crowd rushed to his house. At first, he refused to lead the movement, but when the demand was reiterated by the men of his regiment, he acceded, and within an hour received the keys of the fort, which had meanwhile been seized. Fortunately for the revolutionaries, the fort contained all the public funds, whose return Lieutenant Governor Nicholson demanded in vain. Four hundred of the new party signed an agreement to hold the fort "for the present Protestant power that reigns in England," while a committee of safety of ten of the city freeholders assumed the powers of a provisional government, of which they declared Jacob Leisler to be the head, and commissioned him as "captain of the fort." In this capacity, he at once began to repair that work, and strengthened it with a "battery" of six guns beyond its walls, which was the origin of the public park that is still known as the Battery. Acting on behalf of a group of Huguenots in New York, Leisler brokered the purchase of the land upon which they would settle. This site of this settlement is now occupied by the city of New Rochelle, New York.
• 1690 - Albany held out against Leisler's authority for a time. In November, Leisler sent Jacob Milbourne to Albany with an armed force to assist in its defence against the Indians. Milbourne was directed to withhold aid unless Leisler's authority was recognized. This was refused, and Milbourne returned unsuccessful. But after the destruction of Schenectady on February 19, 1690, by the French and Indians, Albany submitted to Leisler's authority.Under authority of a letter from the home government addressed to Nicholson, "or in his absence, to such as for the time being takes care for preserving the peace and administering the laws in His Majesty's province of New York," Leisler had assumed the title of lieutenant-governor in December 1689. He dissolved the committee of safety, appointed a council, and took charge of the government of the entire province. Leisler summoned the first Intercolonial Congress in America, which met in New York on May 1, 1690, to plan concerted action against the French and Native Americans in the ongoing conflict. The congress planned an expedition against Canada. It equipped and despatched against Quebec the first fleet of men-of-war ever sent from the Port of New York. However, the expedition was unsuccessful.
• 1691 - English Major Richard Ingoldesby, who had been commissioned lieutenant governor of the province, and two companies of soldiers landed and demanded possession of the fort. Leisler refused to surrender the fort without an order from the king or the governor, and after some controversy an attack was made on 17 March in which two soldiers were killed and several wounded. On Governor Sloughter's arrival in New York the following March, he immediately demanded Leisler's surrender. Leisler likewise refused to surrender the fort until he was convinced of Sloughter's identity and the latter had sworn in his council. As soon as the latter event occurred, he wrote the governor a letter resigning his command. Sloughter replied by arresting him and nine of his friends. The latter were subsequently released after trial, but Leisler was imprisoned, charged with treason and murder, and shortly afterward tried and condemned to death.

~Chas'88

I've not got the time to analyze it thoroughly for parallels to this Fourth Turning - though if anyone else sees any they should surely mention them - but would it be a Ericisian stretch to suggest a parallel between the Great Comet and Comet Ison?

(edited due to space issues)

Common conflicts & Analysis

Central rule (usually appointed or influenced by Royal decree) vs. Popular rule (usually elected officials): Dominion of New England, Protestant Revolution, Bacon's Rebellion, Pennsylvania & Delaware Assemblies vs. William Penn; James II vs. William & Mary; Charles II vs. Parliament

Established/Entrenched investors (usually the wealthy lords or landowners) vs. Outside/Competitor investors (usually those excluded from the "inner circle" favored by particular governing factions): Puritans vs. Non-Puritans, Berkley vs. Bacon, Calvert vs. Coode, Nicholson vs. Leisler, Mather vs. Phips

Puritan & Cavalier Generation (usually the elder leaders hanging on to power by a thread, or a younger head representing the older factions) vs. Cavalier & Glorious Generation (usually the younger war-tried veterans who are sick to death of the old order): Berkley (Puritan) vs. Bacon (Cavalier); Calvert (Cavalier) vs. Coode (Glorious); Andros (Cavalier) vs. Bradstreet (Puritan); Nicholson (Glorious) vs. Leisler (Cavalier); Mather (Puritan) vs. Phips (Glorious); Joseph (Puritan) vs. Coode (Glorious); James II (Cavalier) vs. William & Mary (Glorious); Trevino (unknown) vs. Po'Pay (Cavalier)

Catholic vs. Protestant tensions & issues of Religious Tolerance - a lingering issue from the last Crisis being solved in this one, with most cases being one of overthrowing religious tolerance of Catholics; the only places where religious tolerance maintains a foothold is in the Dutch & Quaker influenced Mid-Atlantic colonies. In England the issue of Catholics vs. Protestants is solved by decreeing that Catholics should be barred from the throne after the deposition of James II. This is seen as a good thing of asserting Human Rights as preserved by Protestantism & Parliament from having them be trampled upon by the Divine Right of Catholic Monarchs. The split being between a set of governing principles where Protestantism is associated with popular sovereignty and early democratic ideas, and Catholicism associated with authority and rigid hierarchy. Thus in some respect this issue is also an extension of the "Central Rule" vs. "Popular Rule" diachotomy. This is also the sentiment that sparks this Crisis in England as the biggest conspiracy theory which starts this Crisis is that of the Popish Plot--in which rumors of a Catholic plot to oust Charles II were rumored to include his brother the Duke of York, and the Queen. The rumor going that the King would be killed and Catholic oppression in the form of James II would overtake the country. In New Mexico the issue of religious tolerance between the Pueblo and Catholic missionaries led directly to the Pueblo revolt. Another thing to note was the first road atlas of England was beginning to being mapped at this time (commissioned by Charles II), with most of the roads mapped on it not being ones already in use or existence but potential future roads, specifically ones which happened to connect areas of Catholic importance together (like mapping an old Pilgrim's route to a saint's shrine in Wales). The project was eventually abandoned as the Catholic transformation of England failed to take hold. In much respects that road atlas represents in some respects an alternative direction history could've gone in, had Catholicism not been so violently opposed by the people.

Agriculture vs. Mercantilism - a long standing versus of MANY centuries but one which in this crisis can be said to have been completed. With the founding of the British East India Company, as well as the Glorious Generation in England's economic transformation of England--it was transformed from a largely farming & pirating based economy to one more focused and able to conduct trade. Scotland during this Crisis attempted to gain some last measure of independence from England with a failed colony. This versus also played out in the new world, but in different ways. In the south it became about producing large quantities of cash crops, while the focus in New England was more centered on trade akin to that of old England. After this Crisis England becomes more akin economically to that of a well-oiled machine so much so that in the 1T after this what can be thought of as "modern Capitalism" takes shape. This does not mean that there weren't attempts to hold back the tide of mercantilism from prevailing--a lot of the divisions in the Salem Witch Trials and people who refused to pay taxes to certain churches were often people associated frequently or had economic ties with traders and commerce of the coast--while the Old Puritan guard were the staunch farmers squabbling over land borders and upset why they were running out of land to farm in New England's rocky shores. In the South the switchover from an indentured-servant/slave mixed economy to that of a wholly slave based economy took place during this time and helped the plantation system to develop into what we think of it today.

I'd be remiss if I failed to mention the Act of Union which occurred in this crisis, in which England simply made official the relationship that was already there in all but name. A sense of competitiveness though still exists with Edinburgh striving to be a thriving center of learning and economic thought that would come to produce the English Enlightenment's greater thinkers.

There were long stretches of nothing happening between war and rebellions. Usually these long stretches included periods of tension and depressed economic conditions in which the most notable things that happened were usually public gaffs made by officials who stoked anger in the populace. Officials saying controversial things (such as William Joseph of Maryland saying "the colony was full of adulterers") which outraged public opinion and only further stoked disquiet in the colonies. A lot of gaffs and offhanded comments like that get made, many of the officials or people who say these things usually don't end up too well.

You can usually tell what the conflict of a 4T is about by its conspiracy theories. A few examples include the 1850s/1860s: Slaveocracy conspiracy theory; 1670s/1680s: Popish Plot conspiracy theory; 2000s/2010s: Big corporate/government conspiracy theory. They typically involve some sort of inequality in one group having more than another group. Almost ALL examples I've found thus far typically end with the groups of "haves" at the beginning of the Crisis being replaced with a new group of haves from the previous "have nots" at the end of the Crisis. And while the conspiracy theories might be fundamentally false, I caution people to ignore them at your own peril, as they can be used to motivate people in a 4T to make radical institutional changes unlike at any other time.

~Chas'88

Originally Posted by Brian Beecher

Won't we be able to figure that out by next summer, if indeed there is another dust bowl. We came pretty close during the summer of 2012, didn't we?

Well, locally, the ongoing drought is projected to last at least until next June. Eastern New Mexico farmers (prairie country) are starting to grow North African feed crops as being more drought-tolerant than the traditional local ones.

Feliz Navidad, y'all!

Originally Posted by Chas'88

Ask and ye shall receive...

Chas, please refrain from posting anything related to
Generational/Turnings Theory. Don't you know this
is a politics-based message-board now?


Prince

PS: Excellent work and analysis(as usual), IMO. Thanks.

Originally Posted by Ed S

the American psyche as in the other crisis periods did (The Glorious Revolution, the Revolutionary War, and Great Depression-WWII era).

What I noticed is that every other crisis produces one of two different type of questions. In one type of crisis, the issue is whether to build a new system or maintain the status quo. But in the alternating cycle the issue is whether to maintain the status quo or go back to an earlier era.

Examples: (1) in the Glorious Revolution, the question was whether colonies should maintain the status quo or go back to the original state charters. They chose to go back to the original state charters. (2) In the next crisis, the Revolutionary War, the question was whether to form a new country or stick with Britain - they chose a new country. (3) During the Civil War, the question was whether to preserve the Union or go back to the Articles of Confederation - After a bloody Civil War, they chose to preserve the Union. (4) During the Great Depression the issue was whether to build a new social democratic system or keep free capitalism - they chose to build a new economic system.

We are now in a 9-11/Great Recession crisis. People have erroneously compared Obama to FDR so they expect a great Obama Revolution and have been disappointed. But that's because they believe in the one lifetime cycle theory. More likely, we are in a period more like the Civil War, where the question is whether to keep the status quo or repeal the New Deal and return to a free capitalist system. If past history is a guide, we won't know what the decision will be until the time comes.

Thus, there may not be a heroic generation in this cycle. We may end up with significant reforms such as universal health care, but it won't be as earth shattering as forming a new nation or reorganizing our whole economic system. It will be more like the Glorious Revolution where either there will be modest reforms, or the major reforms will involve reducing government's role in the economy and dismantling the social safety net.

.

I'm thinking that Millies might come to resemble the young adults who rebuilt Japan after World War II. That is, if the main action of 4T plays out as economic.

Originally Posted by TimWalker

I'm thinking that Millies might come to resemble the young adults who rebuilt Japan after World War II. That is, if the main action of 4T plays out as economic.

Interesting.