I like the Phony Fourth theory (kudos to Sean for coming up with an interesting topic).

Kinda brings me back to conversations that took place a few years ago about the start of the previous Awakening. Even though it started with Kennedy's assassination, Kevin himself said that up until 1966, things seemed very high-like, and then suddenly in 1967, the Awakening hit with full force. I think that this was part of a Phony Second.

It is very likely that dynamic turnings hit the cutting-edge communities first before suddenly engulfing society.

In the Glorious Revolution Crisis, the mood hit in full force in Maryland and Virginia in 1675 with Indian Wars and Bacon's Rebellion, and then hit the other colonies in the late 1670s when the English government attempted to curtail the liberties of the colonies.

Or, in the American Revolution, the mood first hit Massachusetts with the Boston Tea Party and then engulfed the colony in the late summer of 1774 with a sudden and dramatic overthrow of all British officials in the colony. It hit other colonies in 1775 with Lexington and Concord as colonists worried that the British government might do the same to them.

One can say that the Civil War Crisis started in 1859 with John Brown's raid. However, this was likely only the catalyst in the Dixie states. The mood reached the North with the secession of the southern states, and engulfed the nation after Fort Sumter.

The prior 4T was much the same. One can make the case that in rural areas, the mood began before the stock market crash, especially in the south where Huey Long was given dictatorial powers in Louisiana in 1928, and where the region had been in depression since the mid 1920s. It reached the urban areas in 1929 with the crash, and engulfed the nation in 1932 with the threat of either a fascist or a popular socialist revolution in the US.

It is clear that today, the 4T mood is hitting certain areas in greater force than the rest of the nation, mainly on the west coast (esp. the Bay Area). So while it might seem 3T in many areas, it is likely that the 4T mood will suddenly sweep over as early as later this years or as late as the 2004 presidential election.

Kevin Parker wrote:

I believe that such a cascade reaction has occurred, Sean. Witness the domino effect of Sept. 11, 2001-- the subsequent plummeting of the dot-com-driven stock market (which actually began in March '01), rising unemployment, the anthrax attacks, the Enron collapse, the Washington DC snipers' reign of terror, the countdown to war in Iraq and now, the nuclear threat from North Korea. Each of these incidents has ratcheted the level of Crisis up a notch in the collective American psyche.

When you put it like that it can sound pretty ominous. But I still believe that, possibly other than very recently, the chain of events we’ve experienced since 9-11-01 have not been as dramatic as the cascades that occurred in the year-and-a-half periods after previous fourth turning triggers. I think that is very likely to change as a result of balls that will be put into play this month. And I believe that our government’s demeanor during this period has been one that no longer lends itself to ameliorating problems, third turning style, whether in foreign policy or issues of domestic security versus individual rights.

I did indeed thought I saw such a cascade last summer, and that is why I put my house on the market. But when I looked at things very deeply, I could not determine a crucial, overriding distinction between the amalgamation of events and reactions we’ve experienced since 9-11-01 and the intense, yet very third turning, way our society reacted to WWI and the Anarchist crisis afterwards. But I said I could not ascertain a “crucial, overriding distinction” – but that does not mean I did feel something of importance was different. It was this “no, but . . .” feeling that prompted me to think up the “Phony Fourth” and utilize Strauss and Howe to explain it and put it in a post in this forum.

Bob Butler writes:

I have never been too thrilled with the generational stereotypes. I take any astrology-like system which lumps all people into groups which think alike with a grain of salt.

When I first read Generations back in 1991, I took it as very, very interesting at first, but over the next few years partially derided the theory as “horoscopish”, that is, until I saw some of their predictions of trends, especially about Millenials, come true. When I read the Fourth Turning in early ’97, and then saw Bill Strauss speak to plug it, again I had to battle with the same suspicion or doubt. Even today it occasionally pops up. But over time their body of work has come to impress the hell out of me most of the time, and is even beginning to truly scare me now. It is surely not the only prism through which to see things in history or current events. No argument there. But I can see that these fellows could really be on to something with this.

Yes there are some serious generalizations at play in their theory. But something is always lost in the translation from reality to representation when you create symbols to convey the reality you see and want to share. Yet nothing is shared if you don’t try. What I mean is, though generalizations can be very demeaning, they are not always wrong or useless or even necessarily demeaning. Enough pontificating from me on that. I’m sorry.

Marc Lamb writes:

And Kristoff's admission is one of the big reasons why I laugh every time I read of these claims, made by liberal posters here, that "regeneracy" is just around the corner . . . . That's the kind of "regeneracy" we're most likely gonna see in this country. Especially if it's "just around the corner." Wake up, liberals! You're living in a dream land, a "Phony Fourth”.

I would tend to agree with you that I think the regeneracy, as Strauss and Howe mean it, is probably a good ways off. I am not so certain it will be as shallow as you foresee it being, but hey, who knows?

Also, though you probably didn’t mean me, just for the record, I am not a “liberal”. The Radical Center (with admitted righty leanings) is my bag, dude.

Jenny writes,

Hmm. Do you guys think that I should push my local synagogue for additional security for the March 17 Purim revelries? We're only a couple of miles from the Pentagon.

In all seriousness, it probably couldn’t hurt. Be safe.

Originally Posted by madscientist

I like the Phony Fourth theory (kudos to Sean for coming up with an interesting topic).

Kinda brings me back to conversations that took place a few years ago about the start of the previous Awakening. Even though it started with Kennedy's assassination, Kevin himself said that up until 1966, things seemed very high-like, and then suddenly in 1967, the Awakening hit with full force. I think that this was part of a Phony Second.

It is very likely that dynamic turnings hit the cutting-edge communities first before suddenly engulfing society.

In the Glorious Revolution Crisis, the mood hit in full force in Maryland and Virginia in 1675 with Indian Wars and Bacon's Rebellion, and then hit the other colonies in the late 1670s when the English government attempted to curtail the liberties of the colonies.

Or, in the American Revolution, the mood first hit Massachusetts with the Boston Tea Party and then engulfed the colony in the late summer of 1774 with a sudden and dramatic overthrow of all British officials in the colony. It hit other colonies in 1775 with Lexington and Concord as colonists worried that the British government might do the same to them.

One can say that the Civil War Crisis started in 1859 with John Brown's raid. However, this was likely only the catalyst in the Dixie states. The mood reached the North with the secession of the southern states, and engulfed the nation after Fort Sumter.

The prior 4T was much the same. One can make the case that in rural areas, the mood began before the stock market crash, especially in the south where Huey Long was given dictatorial powers in Louisiana in 1928, and where the region had been in depression since the mid 1920s. It reached the urban areas in 1929 with the crash, and engulfed the nation in 1932 with the threat of either a fascist or a popular socialist revolution in the US.

It is clear that today, the 4T mood is hitting certain areas in greater force than the rest of the nation, mainly on the west coast (esp. the Bay Area). So while it might seem 3T in many areas, it is likely that the 4T mood will suddenly sweep over as early as later this years or as late as the 2004 presidential election.

Sorry, you posted while I was writing my last post.

That is an interesting idea, and could help explain some of the ambiguity here between 3T/4T. I live in the Bay Area, and though things economically are going down the pooper here, I don't see evidence of a distinctly fourth turning reaction. It seems just like an edgier version of the downturn in the early 90's.

However, I DO get the impression that the citizens of the New York City and Washington DC areas may observe fourth turning phenomena in their subcultures.

I will now wrap my mind around the mechanism I proposed in my first post regarding an explanation for this gray-area "Phony Fourth" and have it play with your very intersting idea about "cutting-edge" communities pioneering saecular change.

This is fun.

As I was going through Generatopms, I came across a very important, and much often neglected segment in these forums. It is about American generational constellations.

The book says that around the year 2003, America will reach a fully occupied inner-driven constellation, one that will match the constellations of 1924, 1855, 1766, and 1673. I disagree with the 1855 year, since both the Nomad and proto-Heroes were still in the middle of their Unravelling age life cycle with the leading edge of the Gilded being at 33 and the leading edge of the Progressives at 12.

At each of these moments, "Americans perceived their social life to be fragmenting into centrifugal and uncontrollable wildness." Whether this is happening, or has happened is a matter of debate. After this happens, America moves into a Crisis Era, where a spark can ignite a new mood.

According to the book, Boomers "will turn up their moral megaphones to full blast...If ever there was a time to turn Pepperland into reality, that time is nearing." It seems that at least some Boomers are reaching this stage. "Xers will sense their party boat drifting towards a waterfall -- and will start thinking about which way to leap, and when" Among some Xers, I can see this trend. "Milllennials, busy transforming college life, will astound and delight elders with their friendly, optimistic, and team-playing attitude." Of course, there are signs of this trend.

After these trends begin happening, it is only a matter of time before a Crisis mood is sparked. However, the moodset came and went, becoming more ominous and urgent with each wave starting with 9/11. After the shocks of 9/11, the anthrax attacks, and an economic recession, the mood calmed and warmed somewhat in April and May of 2002, before sinking early in June and into August with corporate scandals, and more economic trouble. The bad mood became much stronger in early 2003 as the Iraqi War captured the national attention. Now, we're worried about economic trouble, the news on the state of the nation is worse than ever. People are worried about deficits, deflation, shrinking paychecks, higher middle class taxes, and the fact that the states are starving of money.

After all of this, the question is, what now? If the catalyst hasn't yet begun, we can expect it to happen, and soon. If so, then by late 2003, we shall exit this "phony 4T".

The latest secular problem is that of a critical national energy shortage for this summer. Mother nature, by giving us a long and cold winter, seems to want to test us. Will this problem be treated with dire urgency over the summer? We can expect every political stripe to capitalize on this. What are your thoughts?

Some years ago, as I am a Boomer, I took it upon myself to read some literature written by both Transcendental and Missionary authors. I found myself feeling closer in outlook to the Transies, as I'm sure many other Boomers, on both sides, do. Already a bad sign.

One scenario as to how all Hell could break loose as early as late next year (I hope this scenario proves to be a great big load of stinky brown stuff, out of a horse!) would have Hillary being drafted to run for the Presidency next year, apparently against her will, after none of the current nine candidates succeeds in energizing the Democrat base. After all, who would be more appropriate, in a sad way, for a particularly divisive 4T election, than our two most polarizing pols, GWB and HRC? The violence begins even before Election Day, which proves to be a repeat of E2K in closeness and disputed outcome. This time, though, instead of taking the matter to court, Hillary and Dubya each declares victory, and begins assembling their respective cabinets, with their respective stable of Congresspersons and Senators coming into tow. (In many states, they won their state by a landslide which had long coattails.) Before the year is out, as the violence continues to escalate, each one declares the other to be in a state of armed rebellion against legally constituted authority, and announces an intent to react accordingly. The first six months of 2005, as the battle lines are sorted out and drawn, prove to be the worst in our country's history since the first half of 1865. As the situation continues to worsen, the European Union and certain other foreign countries begin to at least consider committing troops to fight on the Leftist side.

Originally Posted by Titus Sabinus Parthicus

Some years ago, as I am a Boomer, I took it upon myself to read some literature written by both Transcendental and Missionary authors. I found myself feeling closer in outlook to the Transies, as I'm sure many other Boomers, on both sides, do. Already a bad sign.

One scenario as to how all Hell could break loose as early as late next year (I hope this scenario proves to be a great big load of stinky brown stuff, out of a horse!) would have Hillary being drafted to run for the Presidency next year, apparently against her will, after none of the current nine candidates succeeds in energizing the Democrat base. After all, who would be more appropriate, in a sad way, for a particularly divisive 4T election, than our two most polarizing pols, GWB and HRC? The violence begins even before Election Day, which proves to be a repeat of E2K in closeness and disputed outcome. This time, though, instead of taking the matter to court, Hillary and Dubya each declares victory, and begins assembling their respective cabinets, with their respective stable of Congresspersons and Senators coming into tow. (In many states, they won their state by a landslide which had long coattails.) Before the year is out, as the violence continues to escalate, each one declares the other to be in a state of armed rebellion against legally constituted authority, and announces an intent to react accordingly. The first six months of 2005, as the battle lines are sorted out and drawn, prove to be the worst in our country's history since the first half of 1865. As the situation continues to worsen, the European Union and certain other foreign countries begin to at least consider committing troops to fight on the Leftist side.

I actually wrote an outline for a fictional story, which I never finished, in the summer of 2000 featuring the candidates then running (although I changed their names and substituted the phrase "The Right Kind of Right" for "compassionate conservatism." Incidentally, "The Right Kind of Right" was also the name of the story). Some of my predictions were eerily accurate. Although Bush was far in front at the time the outline was predicted, my story had Gore taking a slight lead in polls. I also had Bush taking a small but indecisive lead after the debates--which I had Bush winning on points, but not with a clear knockout like Reagan's famous "better off" comment in his debate with Carter. Finally, I had the election failing to be resolved on Election Night due to Democrat fraud--and the Republicans finally standing up to them in the face of a near-civil war and taking the electio that was rightfully theirs. The final line of the story was to be one of the Bush-equivalent's advisors saying to him, "This is really the Right Kind of Right"--a term previously used to play down the conservatism of the GOP, but in the context of the last sentence meaning that the GOP had finally done the right thing by standing up to the Democrats.

As you can probably guess, the story was meant as a gentle critique of the concept of "compassionate conservatism." I might add that it had inaccurate pseudopredictions too, such as the "comic relief" scene in which the Nader-equivalent drops out, claiming that absent a massive corporate conspiracy (for which he names names) he would be the frontrunner, and endorses the Socialist candidate. Also, I didn't have the issue settled in the courts, but rather in a Moscow-1991 type of street showdown (ultimately with relatively little violence). (This final scene does have some similarites, however, to the "Gucci riot" in which Republicans forced Democrat election officials to take their vote-counting back into the view of the media).

In any case, the point is, first, that I could sense even then that some nasty shit was coming down the pike; and, second, that while I wasn't aware yet of the S&H hypothesis, I still could see things weren't yet far enough gone for a civil war. In 2004, they might be.

Robert,

Thanks for your analysis from Generations. Yeah, whether you go by the first book, or by The Fourth Turning, the generational alignment is such that we are right on the 3T/4T edge.

Regarding the natural gas crisis, whether this will turn into anything, I don't know. One thing is for sure: if it turns out to be anything like what happened to gas a couple of years ago (and this looks to be worse), then it has the potential to cause significant economic damage. And in this limbo-like Phony Fourth it will probably add to the slow but growing anxiety building in our society.

One item I am concerned about is housing prices, especially in places like the San Francisco Bay Area, Boston, and New York, but nationally as well. The Economist just did a special feature last week on a global housing bubble, and numerous other articles have been out on the bubble specifically in the United States.

The basic gist is that there is a historical ratio of house prices to average income and that this ratio is now out of wack, like the PE ratio was (is?) on the Dow and Nasdaq a couple of years ago. The problem is a severe (or even not-so-severe) drop in housing prices could have a much larger negative impact on the economy than the Stock Bursting had.

As I stated in my opening to this thread, I did the Nomad-on-the-4T-cusp thing and sold my house recently--pulled out the equity and am now waiting to what happens next. Renting sucks long-term, but I am gambling that a coming deappreciation will make up for any loss in tax deductions on interest, or on paying into principle.

But, in the end, it may not matter what shepherds the 4T transition: the new mood will latch on to whatever it can, if the generational constellation is ripe.

Then again, the generational mechanism per se may have nothing to do with it. Though I am skeptical, I am reading Mike Alexander's posts to glean more about his ideas --about a debt cycle currently fueling the saeculum. Interesting stuff.

Titus,

I was enthralled by your scenario. And, you know, it did not seem all that far-fetched considering how strange things have seemed lately. As crazy as your story sounds at first, it just the kind of wacky thing one finds in history at the opening gateway of 4T's.

Dominic,

Don't you just hate when you have an idea (and in your case it sounds like it was pretty well written out) and it happens! I actually wrote some notes on some sort of national tradegy occuring on 9/11/01 (I picked the date because its my birthday) back in about '96. Be warned, I had an atomic exchange between India and Pakistan in 2003 (and I was getting awfully nervous about that last year when things got really strained between them!).

Originally Posted by Sean Love

As I stated in my opening to this thread, I did the Nomad-on-the-4T-cusp thing and sold my house recently--pulled out the equity and am now waiting to what happens next. Renting sucks long-term, but I am gambling that a coming deappreciation will make up for any loss in tax deductions on interest, or on paying into principle.

Suddenly I feel much better about selling my Seattle home in April 2001 and not being ready to buy another home for at least another year.

Originally Posted by Titus Sabinus Parthicus

Some years ago, as I am a Boomer, I took it upon myself to read some literature written by both Transcendental and Missionary authors. I found myself feeling closer in outlook to the Transies, as I'm sure many other Boomers, on both sides, do. Already a bad sign.

One scenario as to how all Hell could break loose as early as late next year (I hope this scenario proves to be a great big load of stinky brown stuff, out of a horse!) would have Hillary being drafted to run for the Presidency next year, apparently against her will, after none of the current nine candidates succeeds in energizing the Democrat base. After all, who would be more appropriate, in a sad way, for a particularly divisive 4T election, than our two most polarizing pols, GWB and HRC? The violence begins even before Election Day, which proves to be a repeat of E2K in closeness and disputed outcome. This time, though, instead of taking the matter to court, Hillary and Dubya each declares victory, and begins assembling their respective cabinets, with their respective stable of Congresspersons and Senators coming into tow. (In many states, they won their state by a landslide which had long coattails.) Before the year is out, as the violence continues to escalate, each one declares the other to be in a state of armed rebellion against legally constituted authority, and announces an intent to react accordingly. The first six months of 2005, as the battle lines are sorted out and drawn, prove to be the worst in our country's history since the first half of 1865. As the situation continues to worsen, the European Union and certain other foreign countries begin to at least consider committing troops to fight on the Leftist side.

That scenario certainly does seem possible, although I hope that it is not. However, I cannot see anything not happening with E2K4. Not saying that there will be bloodshed, but at least a period of political upheaval. For all sides of the issue, the stakes will seem extremely high.

Originally Posted by madscientist

Originally Posted by Titus Sabinus Parthicus

Some years ago, as I am a Boomer, I took it upon myself to read some literature written by both Transcendental and Missionary authors. I found myself feeling closer in outlook to the Transies, as I'm sure many other Boomers, on both sides, do. Already a bad sign.

One scenario as to how all Hell could break loose as early as late next year (I hope this scenario proves to be a great big load of stinky brown stuff, out of a horse!) would have Hillary being drafted to run for the Presidency next year, apparently against her will, after none of the current nine candidates succeeds in energizing the Democrat base. After all, who would be more appropriate, in a sad way, for a particularly divisive 4T election, than our two most polarizing pols, GWB and HRC? The violence begins even before Election Day, which proves to be a repeat of E2K in closeness and disputed outcome. This time, though, instead of taking the matter to court, Hillary and Dubya each declares victory, and begins assembling their respective cabinets, with their respective stable of Congresspersons and Senators coming into tow. (In many states, they won their state by a landslide which had long coattails.) Before the year is out, as the violence continues to escalate, each one declares the other to be in a state of armed rebellion against legally constituted authority, and announces an intent to react accordingly. The first six months of 2005, as the battle lines are sorted out and drawn, prove to be the worst in our country's history since the first half of 1865. As the situation continues to worsen, the European Union and certain other foreign countries begin to at least consider committing troops to fight on the Leftist side.

That scenario certainly does seem possible, although I hope that it is not. However, I cannot see anything not happening with E2K4. Not saying that there will be bloodshed, but at least a period of political upheaval. For all sides of the issue, the stakes will seem extremely high.

This contradicts the usual pablum about "coming together" in a 4T, but I suspect you're right. The "coming together" is more a gelling into distinct groups; in a 3T, when the economy is riding high, and foreign threats are distant, people like having their space in an atomized society, but in a 4T they seek allies to deal with the oncoming problems. (It's pretty obvious that we didn't "come together" with, say, Nazi Germany, in the last 4T; and in fact, the Yugoslavs and Spaniards "came apart" at the time as a result of that Crisis).

Originally Posted by Dominic Flandry

Originally Posted by madscientist

Originally Posted by Titus Sabinus Parthicus

Some years ago, as I am a Boomer, I took it upon myself to read some literature written by both Transcendental and Missionary authors. I found myself feeling closer in outlook to the Transies, as I'm sure many other Boomers, on both sides, do. Already a bad sign.

One scenario as to how all Hell could break loose as early as late next year (I hope this scenario proves to be a great big load of stinky brown stuff, out of a horse!) would have Hillary being drafted to run for the Presidency next year, apparently against her will, after none of the current nine candidates succeeds in energizing the Democrat base. After all, who would be more appropriate, in a sad way, for a particularly divisive 4T election, than our two most polarizing pols, GWB and HRC? The violence begins even before Election Day, which proves to be a repeat of E2K in closeness and disputed outcome. This time, though, instead of taking the matter to court, Hillary and Dubya each declares victory, and begins assembling their respective cabinets, with their respective stable of Congresspersons and Senators coming into tow. (In many states, they won their state by a landslide which had long coattails.) Before the year is out, as the violence continues to escalate, each one declares the other to be in a state of armed rebellion against legally constituted authority, and announces an intent to react accordingly. The first six months of 2005, as the battle lines are sorted out and drawn, prove to be the worst in our country's history since the first half of 1865. As the situation continues to worsen, the European Union and certain other foreign countries begin to at least consider committing troops to fight on the Leftist side.

That scenario certainly does seem possible, although I hope that it is not. However, I cannot see anything not happening with E2K4. Not saying that there will be bloodshed, but at least a period of political upheaval. For all sides of the issue, the stakes will seem extremely high.

This contradicts the usual pablum about "coming together" in a 4T, but I suspect you're right. The "coming together" is more a gelling into distinct groups; in a 3T, when the economy is riding high, and foreign threats are distant, people like having their space in an atomized society, but in a 4T they seek allies to deal with the oncoming problems. (It's pretty obvious that we didn't "come together" with, say, Nazi Germany, in the last 4T; and in fact, the Yugoslavs and Spaniards "came apart" at the time as a result of that Crisis).

I tend to think the same way. That seems to be happening even as we speak. The American Left, I feel, is aligning with the emergent European Union against the American Right. Perhaps the Left feels that such an alliance is anti-American enough for them, but with a force that is acceptably democratic, rather than a post-Communist authoritarian one like China. Witness Brian Rush's expressed preference (from last year) for Europe over China.

I think the fragmentation of groups by turning is like this:

1T: Group A is dominant in society.
2T: Group B is rebelling against group A.
3T: The groups split into groups A, B, C, D, E, and F.
4T: Groups A, C, and E combine into one group.
Groups B, D, and F combine into one group.

Of course, it is more complex than that, but that is a basic idea of how it goes.

I'm here finally finishing reading this entire thread on Labor Day 2003 and conveniently have the luxury of reading all of the past posts. Several predictions haven't panned out, but such is the nature of a guessing game, I suppose.

First off, I think the idea of a Phony Fourth is a very valid one. Period. But its meaning still is not clear, is it?

Second, look at the phrase: what does "phony" mean?

It means to me that this phase of time in limbo is not part of the 4T, it is the last of the 3T, it is the most obnoxious, uncomfortable, frustrating, and damaging UNRAVELLING we suffer through before a 4T catalyst.

A Phony Fourth effect is very similar to the ideas presently being kicked around thanks to Chris68 in the Politics forum in a thread called Generations and the 108th Congress, which he started and hopefully others will investigate. It's also similar to Bob Butler's theory, the similarity being that technology now motivates turning change. We're exploring the idea of mass media (a form of technology) having such an effect on us that it's changing our reactions and that changes our turnings as well as our generational mood shifts.

My personal thoughts are that this Phony Fourth you are all seeing is a False Moment or moments. This is how I define or label Chris's mass media effect (his mileage may vary as to labelling). Whereas I think he sees it in a 4T category, I see it as a 3T False or Phony Moment or phase, but still in the Unravelling phase.

As to other good things kicked about here:

I can buy the 18 year range for the youngest gen (Millies now), but I believe that whether because of technology or mass media or just plain old nonconformity (chaos), our generational age or phase of life ranges are not the same in length now among all the gens in the constellation. Other things are happening. What if this saeculum is a transitional period as to gen phase length? There is in fact evidence that kids are taking longer to assume adulthood. This could make the 18 years for Millies be wrong, or it could lengthen the next gen's constellational phase, the Xers to be longer than 18 years.

Also at play is that there is evidence to suggest that elders' political and social power is held onto longer, which means than the elder gen phase is lengthening (Silents now), as well as forcing Boomers to wait longer for that said power (think of poor Prince Charles here). Increased life spans of everyone vigorously supports this trend being influential on S&H, as well as data on the political representation ages covered in the above referenced thread.

Madscientist referenced that 2003 appears by his source to be in line with 1924. While I hate to think that if that were accurate we're in for more years of this than just "around the corner" (I think Marc Lamb has stated for a long time that he believes we are in for more 3T years), that is more in line with my belief we have not experienced the 4T catalyst yet.

Let me just add this to the thoughts:

While I was not born until the very year (1931) of the last Crisis, one that some of you 4T hopefuls think we are at comparatively, some have expressed their belief that I could not possibly have experienced any of those years firsthand. Please listen to me, anyway. I was closer to it than any of you, and what I do know anectodally about the last 3T and 4T does shape why I think we are still unravelling, not the other way around. Believe me, I'd love to hang my thinking cap on the neat little 4T blocks built up so far, but the follwing is why I cannot, even though I try:

My parents were prosperous. My dad owned a business with his brother and was the postmaster. That was two fulltime incomes all throughout the 20's. Immediately after Black Tuesday of 1929, everything changed for everyone, even my father, whose business declined by half but he still never missed a paycheck from postmastering (govt job). He managed to save half of it every pay period, throughout the entire Depression, because of how desperate sellers priced goods to buyers. Our living expenses dropped drastically. He began that habit in 1930 BTW, and his business declined that year, too.

I was their 4th child, and I was their "poverty baby" as they jokingly teased me from then on. They debated whether to even conceive me, which would have been in 1930! It was because of the catalyst, and most everyone thought things would get much much worse quickly, but they still had stiff upper lips, which is why some may have been quoted as saying things will get better. Accentuate the positive, remember? Everyone around us was losing their jobs, but still scrambling to find other work for awhile, just at lower pay, status and security. Things for most were a period of drastic life changes just to stay afloat. There was a custom back then of Christian Kindness. No matter how much money you had, when everyone else around you was suffering so, you did not flaunt your good fortune in their faces. You did not buy luxuries even though you could afford to, etc. You became as bad off as them outwardly, but you could sleep at night, or better than most. Most everyone else not in our boat had it much worse. Materially and emotionally, but stiff upper lips fought hard.

It's been repeated here often that people back then in what you call the pre-regeneracy period of 1929-1931 or 2 were apparently still "hoping for things to turn around". I think Jenny said it. I know she is referencing S&H because they wrote it, but S&H is also just referencing it. Please remember that. What I'm saying is that those folks did wish and pray things would get better, but it was because they were hurting badly and were so damn scared that was all they could do. Everyone's lives HAD CHANGED, not in some abstract sense but in a real, material, chatoic sense. This is a huge difference than just being confused stumbling in the pre-regeneracy wilderness. Do you all see that?

We are by no means there today, two years after 9/11; hell, we're still firmly in pick n choose land (most people can pick and choose whether to even be aware of the outside world; at a time of 4T catalyst, you cannot do that). It is not the same and I do not have to have been an adult back then to know it. This is where I think many of you are getting way too ahead in your anticipation, because you know the theory and are waiting for it to happen, for the next shoe to drop.

9/11 was a horrible, tragic event that should not be diminished or trivialized. But it had no real material ripple effect of that same tragedy to much of the rest of the nation, other than our heartfelt pain for the victims and our national resolve to defend ourselves against a hapless weak enemy abroad. Tell me, what material suffering have any of you endured on a daily basis because of 9/11 or because of the WOT, other than losing a friend of loved one (which I wholeheartedly feel condolence for)? Even the Patriot Act and Homeland Security program is largely behind the scenes as it affects us daily. Interest rates are still controlled. Unemployment is no worse now than it has been in any other recession. Industries change in all turnings. Illegal immigrants still steal across our borders daily.

Let's put this in perspective. My parents and their neighbors would have loved to have had a pre-regeneracy like this. This current situation was much more like the mid to late 20's, when economic inequities were widening and people lived on the economic edge, but were still able to without it devestating their lives. Luxury businesses abounded, and made up a material segment of the GDP (that was for whoever posted about that). In 1930, those businesses were gone. Also, birth rates, I grew up seeing that my school class was always much smaller than those ahead of me. People were afraid to feed more mouths, not in 1932, but in my birth year, which would have been in 1930 at times of conception.

I know all this about those critical years of 1929-1932 (and alot about the 20's, too, leading up to it) because I was told it over and over for many years as I grew up into adulthood, really until the 50's were almost over and people around me could kind of relax about the most horrible time of their lives when they were blindsided beyond belief. The Depression was the biggest topic of culteral conversation for years, decades. You'd hear it and ask questions and get answers from your family, your neighbors, the papers, magazines, movie reels, the radio, everywhere. And that I do remember. It doesn't matter that I didn't reach the age of abstract thought until 10-12 years later after it happened. The memories were still just as vivid and many still hadn't fully or ever recovered. Still fresh. And passed onto us kids in a very real way.

Just consider my anecdotal evidence, please. Mike A. may have all his neat 18-year logic all laid out to prove otherwise, and it does mean something, that's for sure. I'm not trying to dismiss his data or his hard work. But maybe it's 36-year cycles or other 18-year combinations that are the key to what he has. Maybe the economic cycles are not the whole predictor, because we are so heavily regulated econimically nowadays. Maybe cycles now aren't going to be exactly parallel or even somewhat parallel to what S&H has so far uncovered, because something else is affecting them, something new and unique.

You know, S&H have to sell books. They are under a lot of pressure from our small community and the larger world community they've so far made pay attention to them. If I were them, I'd be saying things that could go either way, not come right out and say one way or another, 3T or 4T. I believe that's what they have done, too. From what I've read, they have not said outright, this is the 4T now. The WOT is a "crisis", but is calling it a crisis in an interview the same as our definitional sense, or in a sense the public understands?

Think outside the box, or you may just get boxed in. :wink:

I'm here finally finishing reading this entire thread on Labor Day 2003 and conveniently have the luxury of reading all of the past posts. Several predictions haven't panned out, but such is the nature of a guessing game, I suppose.

First off, I think the idea of a Phony Fourth is a very valid one. Period. But its meaning still is not clear, is it?

Second, look at the phrase: what does "phony" mean?

It means to me that this phase of time in limbo is not part of the 4T, it is the last of the 3T, it is the most obnoxious, uncomfortable, frustrating, and damaging UNRAVELLING we suffer through before a 4T catalyst.

A Phony Fourth effect is very similar to the ideas presently being kicked around thanks to Chris68 in the Politics forum in a thread called Generations and the 108th Congress, which he started and hopefully others will investigate. It's also similar to Bob Butler's theory, the similarity being that technology now motivates turning change. We're exploring the idea of mass media (a form of technology) having such an effect on us that it's changing our reactions and that changes our turnings as well as our generational mood shifts.

My personal thoughts are that this Phony Fourth you are all seeing is a False Moment or moments. This is how I define or label Chris's mass media effect (his mileage may vary as to labelling). Whereas I think he sees it in a 4T category, I see it as a 3T False or Phony Moment or phase, but still in the Unravelling phase.

As to other good things kicked about here:

I can buy the 18 year range for the youngest gen (Millies now), but I believe that whether because of technology or mass media or just plain old nonconformity (chaos), our generational age or phase of life ranges are not the same in length now among all the gens in the constellation. Other things are happening. What if this saeculum is a transitional period as to gen phase length? There is in fact evidence that kids are taking longer to assume adulthood. This could make the 18 years for Millies be wrong, or it could lengthen the next gen's constellational phase, the Xers to be longer than 18 years.

Also at play is that there is evidence to suggest that elders' political and social power is held onto longer, which means than the elder gen phase is lengthening (Silents now), as well as forcing Boomers to wait longer for that said power (think of poor Prince Charles here). Increased life spans of everyone vigorously supports this trend being influential on S&H, as well as data on the political representation ages covered in the above referenced thread.

Madscientist referenced that 2003 appears by his source to be in line with 1924. While I hate to think that if that were accurate we're in for more years of this than just "around the corner" (I think Marc Lamb has stated for a long time that he believes we are in for more 3T years), that is more in line with my belief we have not experienced the 4T catalyst yet.

Let me just add this to the thoughts:

While I was not born until the very year (1931) of the last Crisis, one that some of you 4T hopefuls think we are at comparatively, some have expressed their belief that I could not possibly have experienced any of those years firsthand. Please listen to me, anyway. I was closer to it than any of you, and what I do know anectodally about the last 3T and 4T does shape why I think we are still unravelling, not the other way around. Believe me, I'd love to hang my thinking cap on the neat little 4T blocks built up so far, but the follwing is why I cannot, even though I try:

My parents were prosperous. My dad owned a business with his brother and was the postmaster. That was two fulltime incomes all throughout the 20's. Immediately after Black Tuesday of 1929, everything changed for everyone, even my father, whose business declined by half but he still never missed a paycheck from postmastering (govt job). He managed to save half of it every pay period, throughout the entire Depression, because of how desperate sellers priced goods to buyers. Our living expenses dropped drastically. He began that habit in 1930 BTW, and his business declined that year, too.

I was their 4th child, and I was their "poverty baby" as they jokingly teased me from then on. They debated whether to even conceive me, which would have been in 1930! It was because of the catalyst, and most everyone thought things would get much much worse quickly, but they still had stiff upper lips, which is why some may have been quoted as saying things will get better. Accentuate the positive, remember? Everyone around us was losing their jobs, but still scrambling to find other work for awhile, just at lower pay, status and security. Things for most were a period of drastic life changes just to stay afloat. There was a custom back then of Christian Kindness. No matter how much money you had, when everyone else around you was suffering so, you did not flaunt your good fortune in their faces. You did not buy luxuries even though you could afford to, etc. You became as bad off as them outwardly, but you could sleep at night, or better than most. Most everyone else not in our boat had it much worse. Materially and emotionally, but stiff upper lips fought hard.

It's been repeated here often that people back then in what you call the pre-regeneracy period of 1929-1931 or 2 were apparently still "hoping for things to turn around". I think Jenny said it. I know she is referencing S&H because they wrote it, but S&H is also just referencing it. Please remember that. What I'm saying is that those folks did wish and pray things would get better, but it was because they were hurting badly and were so damn scared that was all they could do. Everyone's lives HAD CHANGED, not in some abstract sense but in a real, material, chatoic sense. This is a huge difference than just being confused stumbling in the pre-regeneracy wilderness. Do you all see that?

We are by no means there today, two years after 9/11; hell, we're still firmly in pick n choose land (most people can pick and choose whether to even be aware of the outside world; at a time of 4T catalyst, you cannot do that). It is not the same and I do not have to have been an adult back then to know it. This is where I think many of you are getting way too ahead in your anticipation, because you know the theory and are waiting for it to happen, for the next shoe to drop.

9/11 was a horrible, tragic event that should not be diminished or trivialized. But it had no real material ripple effect of that same tragedy to much of the rest of the nation, other than our heartfelt pain for the victims and our national resolve to defend ourselves against a hapless weak enemy abroad. Tell me, what material suffering have any of you endured on a daily basis because of 9/11 or because of the WOT, other than losing a friend of loved one (which I wholeheartedly feel condolence for)? Even the Patriot Act and Homeland Security program is largely behind the scenes as it affects us daily. Interest rates are still controlled. Unemployment is no worse now than it has been in any other recession. Industries change in all turnings. Illegal immigrants still steal across our borders daily.

Let's put this in perspective. My parents and their neighbors would have loved to have had a pre-regeneracy like this. This current situation was much more like the mid to late 20's, when economic inequities were widening and people lived on the economic edge, but were still able to without it devestating their lives. Luxury businesses abounded, and made up a material segment of the GDP (that was for whoever posted about that). In 1930, those businesses were gone. Also, birth rates, I grew up seeing that my school class was always much smaller than those ahead of me. People were afraid to feed more mouths, not in 1932, but in my birth year, which would have been in 1930 at times of conception.

I know all this about those critical years of 1929-1932 (and alot about the 20's, too, leading up to it) because I was told it over and over for many years as I grew up into adulthood, really until the 50's were almost over and people around me could kind of relax about the most horrible time of their lives when they were blindsided beyond belief. The Depression was the biggest topic of culteral conversation for years, decades. You'd hear it and ask questions and get answers from your family, your neighbors, the papers, magazines, movie reels, the radio, everywhere. And that I do remember. It doesn't matter that I didn't reach the age of abstract thought until 10-12 years later after it happened. The memories were still just as vivid and many still hadn't fully or ever recovered. Still fresh. And passed onto us kids in a very real way.

Just consider my anecdotal evidence, please. Mike A. may have all his neat 18-year logic all laid out to prove otherwise, and it does mean something, that's for sure. I'm not trying to dismiss his data or his hard work. But maybe it's 36-year cycles or other 18-year combinations that are the key to what he has. Maybe the economic cycles are not the whole predictor, because we are so heavily regulated econimically nowadays. Maybe cycles now aren't going to be exactly parallel or even somewhat parallel to what S&H has so far uncovered, because something else is affecting them, something new and unique.

You know, S&H have to sell books. They are under a lot of pressure from our small community and the larger world community they've so far made pay attention to them. If I were them, I'd be saying things that could go either way, not come right out and say one way or another, 3T or 4T. I believe that's what they have done, too. From what I've read, they have not said outright, this is the 4T now. The WOT is a "crisis", but is calling it a crisis in an interview the same as our definitional sense, or in a sense the public understands?

Think outside the box, or you may just get boxed in. :wink:

Barbara: Have you ever read a book by Caroline Bird called "The Invisible Scar"--A fascinating look at the crippling scars the Great Depression has left on America (1966) ?
Its way out of print, I first read it in the early '70's and it explained things which had been mystifying to me as a child. There were many older people when I was growing up who were so fearful, they saved incomprehensible things like newspapers and string and tin cans, because they "might need them". The Invisible Scar showed me where that mindset came from, they had been so severely deprived at a critical time in their lives that they could never adjust to prosperity in the way that the rest of us did who were born into it.
I got a copy last year from alibris(?).com for a few dollars. My copy came with a sales slip from Sprouse-Reitz (remember them?) Sept. 17, 1967.
This book is well worth tracking down for its detailed account of what the Depression did to individual people.
Nothing that most of us are living through right now begins to compare with the shattering experiences of that time. There were many Americans starving, attempting to get by on 5 cents of food a day.

Barbara: Have you ever read a book by Caroline Bird called "The Invisible Scar"--A fascinating look at the crippling scars the Great Depression has left on America (1966) ?
Its way out of print, I first read it in the early '70's and it explained things which had been mystifying to me as a child. There were many older people when I was growing up who were so fearful, they saved incomprehensible things like newspapers and string and tin cans, because they "might need them". The Invisible Scar showed me where that mindset came from, they had been so severely deprived at a critical time in their lives that they could never adjust to prosperity in the way that the rest of us did who were born into it.
I got a copy last year from alibris(?).com for a few dollars. My copy came with a sales slip from Sprouse-Reitz (remember them?) Sept. 17, 1967.
This book is well worth tracking down for its detailed account of what the Depression did to individual people.
Nothing that most of us are living through right now begins to compare with the shattering experiences of that time. There were many Americans starving, attempting to get by on 5 cents of food a day.

Barbara,

I really, really appreciate you taking the time to read the whole thread. And thank you so much for your "anecdotal" evidence, which I think aligns nicely with what I've read of "factual" evidence.

As you read, I used the term "phony" (also spelled "phoney") to compare the the limbo status of the "Phony War" of 9/39-4/40. In retrospect we include those months in World War II but one cannot help but see their 'in-between' status. I was musing that everything post-9/11 would be lumped into the 4T in the same way but that those first couple years would be special in the same way.

I would like to point out that I do not use the term "phony" to belittle the idea that we are now in a fourth turning. We may very well be. It could be that it is just not revealing itself in quite the way we expected. I was just looking for historical analogues and that is what I came up with.

I think your post clearly underscores that the period between 9-11-01 and now have not had quite that spiral-out-of-control quality of 1929-33, 1859-61, and 1773-76. This is why I have suggested we are in either a slow transition or an intense third turning reaction coming on the edge of a turning transition. Your account was of a crisis beginning that primarily if not exclusively economic in nature, and yet the prior two 3T-to-4T transitions were not (though I'm sure their primary issues had serious economic consequences for many).

Though I think the outset of this crisis will have a very strong economic component, we must remember that it doesn't necessarily have to. I'm not insinuating that this was one of your points, but I just want to make sure we don't get caught in a box.

But what it does very clearly point out is the intense and comprehensive nature the 4T will very likely have when it finally makes its full debut. It sounds like your family was greatly impacted by the depression. Hell, you are the "poverty child". Even such a nickname was meant in good fun it too must've had an impact. My grandmother (1921-2003) told me of the family having squirrels and rabbit for dinner. Hard times.

Barbara,

I really, really appreciate you taking the time to read the whole thread. And thank you so much for your "anecdotal" evidence, which I think aligns nicely with what I've read of "factual" evidence.

As you read, I used the term "phony" (also spelled "phoney") to compare the the limbo status of the "Phony War" of 9/39-4/40. In retrospect we include those months in World War II but one cannot help but see their 'in-between' status. I was musing that everything post-9/11 would be lumped into the 4T in the same way but that those first couple years would be special in the same way.

I would like to point out that I do not use the term "phony" to belittle the idea that we are now in a fourth turning. We may very well be. It could be that it is just not revealing itself in quite the way we expected. I was just looking for historical analogues and that is what I came up with.

I think your post clearly underscores that the period between 9-11-01 and now have not had quite that spiral-out-of-control quality of 1929-33, 1859-61, and 1773-76. This is why I have suggested we are in either a slow transition or an intense third turning reaction coming on the edge of a turning transition. Your account was of a crisis beginning that primarily if not exclusively economic in nature, and yet the prior two 3T-to-4T transitions were not (though I'm sure their primary issues had serious economic consequences for many).

Though I think the outset of this crisis will have a very strong economic component, we must remember that it doesn't necessarily have to. I'm not insinuating that this was one of your points, but I just want to make sure we don't get caught in a box.

But what it does very clearly point out is the intense and comprehensive nature the 4T will very likely have when it finally makes its full debut. It sounds like your family was greatly impacted by the depression. Hell, you are the "poverty child". Even such a nickname was meant in good fun it too must've had an impact. My grandmother (1921-2003) told me of the family having squirrels and rabbit for dinner. Hard times.

I am re-posting this here from another thread since it basically belongs here.

Originally Posted by Seadog '66

Originally Posted by mandelbrot5

None of us can "prove" that we are in 3T or 4T. Perhaps in 20 or 30 years we may be able to look back and say "Obviously the fourth turning had already begun with 911 (or not)".
The touchstone which I keep coming back to is the generational constellation of that book by Strauss and Howe. (remember them? :wink: ) And of those generations I refer to my own, boomer (1950), which keeps me from skating on thin ice by pretending to understand anyone else's gen.
We boomers are supposedly going to be Elders in the 4T. S and H discuss all the various characteristics of the Elder gen in the book, I'm not going to rehash it again here.
Boomers are not in Elder mode at this time. I also don't think that the other generations are quite into their appointed positions yet, but I'm going to stick with my own group which I understand somewhat better.
I believe that this shift into a more sober, serious frame of mind is beginning to happen ( the beginning of awareness of mortality, death of parents, all those wonderful things) but it certainly is only beginning to show up on the social radar at all.
To give credit where due, Marc has consistently pointed out the problem of the generational constellation over the last couple of years....we tend to want to define 3T/4T by events, not by generational positions, which is not how S and H define turnings in the book.

You assume that S&H are correct that turnings are determined solely by generational constellation. That is not proven. Indeed Mike Alexander's predictions based upon economics predicted a 4T catalyst around 2000 (as compared to, first 2013, later 2005, by S&H). Mike does not discount that generational constellation may have something to do wtih it but challenges that it is necessarily the sole determinant.

In any case, turning change is indicated by change in societal mood. For example, it is clear to the hsitorian that the societal mood after 1929 was different from that which existed prior to 1929. Indeed it is our ability to discern a change in mood which provides S&H with a framework in which to offer a theory, generational or otherwise, in the first place.

In order to test S&H's theory, we must first discern whether the societal mood has changed from that which we knew in the roughly 20 years prior to the proposed turning (911 or otherwise). I think it is abundantly clear the mood has changed from that which we knew in the '80s and '90s. We be 4T, but pre-regeneracy 4T which seems to be a source of confusion to a lot of people. There is no necessity that the bulk of the Crisis period to come even concern itself with the Middle East or a "war on terror" or anything else we are discussing today. All that is relevant is the fact that the societal mood is now not what it was through the '80s and '90s; that we crossed a watershed and things suddenly began getting worse and worse and worse. And in the end, S&H's generations are not really out of alignment anyway. But certainly Mike Alexander would get credited with a more accurate prediction.

The events of 9/11/01 were traumatic, especially considering the telegenic way in which they unfolded. My guess is that such events would've been considered tragic regardless of what turning they occurred in. But they happened when a third turning was, in 'Strauss-n-Howian' terms (T4T neologism, pass it on), quite mature but admittedly not quite ripe for a turning change. As most of you know, I believe this explains this Phony Fourth limbo we reside in.

I can be placed more or less in the orthodox camp of our little community of the saecularly interested, and as such I currently see generational alignment and interactions as the primary engine of the saeculum. But I am open to the "material cause" theory and other ideas, and I think some combination of economic, technological, and cultural factors in the 15th and 16th centuries precipitated the intensification of a cycle that was already there.

So I see the Phony Fourth as being one of two things. One is as an immature triggering of a fourth turning mood. The mood, thus partially ignited, has been smoldering, neither raging out-of-control or going out. The second is as a very intense third turning reaction; kinda like having 1917-1920 happening several years later.

As for the first way, the result of having 9/11 occur so close to the end of a third turning is a strange transition. On the one hand you have a massive reorganization involving the creation of the Department of Homeland Security (note: "Homeland"), you have beat cops being asked for the first time in our history to enforce federal immigration laws, you have the selective suspension of the writ of habeas corpus supported by the Supreme Court, you see us going into Iraq with a surprising amount of consensus (at least initially), you see the transmorgification of soccer moms into "security moms", you see the public willing to support radical changes to our basic foreign policy positions (at least for now), and you see host of other things all pointing at a fourth turning.

Yet . . . on the other hand we also see people spending and going into debt like there is no tomorrow, we see house prices staying ludicrously high beyond any rational support, we see celebrity circus trials continuing in popularity, we see Culture Wars arguments continuing ad nauseum, and for crying out loud we have Madonna frenching Britney . . . and what is with this Nip & Tuck show?!?!?!

In essence we could argue that there is a mish-mosh of turnings going on here. A long, strange transition with blatant aspects of both living side-by-side for the time being.

A second way I see the Phony Fourth is as possibly an intense third turning reaction given a brief fourth turning flavor at the outset. All of the fourth-esque (neologism alert!) "blatant aspects" I mentioned above seem similar to me to our society's reaction to WWI and the anarchist events that followed. Mitchell Palmer, meet John Ashcroft. And the Patriot Act doesn't seem so unprecedented when you look back at 1917-1920. I'm sure many of you can see more comparisons.

Either way, whether the Phony Fourth is a turning hybrid or an intense 3T reaction, we are very likely on the cusp of a "real" fourth turning soon, or at least one would think so if they adhere to saecular orthodoxy. If other 3T-to-4T gateways (i.e., pre-regeneracy periods) are any indication, the smoldering whisps of smoke emanating from this strange post-9/11 period are about to flashover like a Christmas tree in February.

I agree that, overall, the Silent are still keeping the light on, that early-wave Boomers are not rushing into Elder mode just yet, and that Xer's, esp. the Nintendo wave, or still partying-hardying. But if Strauss & Howe are right (about both boundries and mechanisms), then the Boomer 61, Xer 43, Millenial 22 line up we'll see next year is some fairly dry pine needles awaiting some dumb kid with a match (and we know Kim Jong-Il, for example, likes playing with them). And I'd venture that with the Phony Fourth already priming the kindling, we should be in for a nice, hot roast.

I am re-posting this here from another thread since it basically belongs here.

Originally Posted by Seadog '66

Originally Posted by mandelbrot5

None of us can "prove" that we are in 3T or 4T. Perhaps in 20 or 30 years we may be able to look back and say "Obviously the fourth turning had already begun with 911 (or not)".
The touchstone which I keep coming back to is the generational constellation of that book by Strauss and Howe. (remember them? :wink: ) And of those generations I refer to my own, boomer (1950), which keeps me from skating on thin ice by pretending to understand anyone else's gen.
We boomers are supposedly going to be Elders in the 4T. S and H discuss all the various characteristics of the Elder gen in the book, I'm not going to rehash it again here.
Boomers are not in Elder mode at this time. I also don't think that the other generations are quite into their appointed positions yet, but I'm going to stick with my own group which I understand somewhat better.
I believe that this shift into a more sober, serious frame of mind is beginning to happen ( the beginning of awareness of mortality, death of parents, all those wonderful things) but it certainly is only beginning to show up on the social radar at all.
To give credit where due, Marc has consistently pointed out the problem of the generational constellation over the last couple of years....we tend to want to define 3T/4T by events, not by generational positions, which is not how S and H define turnings in the book.

You assume that S&H are correct that turnings are determined solely by generational constellation. That is not proven. Indeed Mike Alexander's predictions based upon economics predicted a 4T catalyst around 2000 (as compared to, first 2013, later 2005, by S&H). Mike does not discount that generational constellation may have something to do wtih it but challenges that it is necessarily the sole determinant.

In any case, turning change is indicated by change in societal mood. For example, it is clear to the hsitorian that the societal mood after 1929 was different from that which existed prior to 1929. Indeed it is our ability to discern a change in mood which provides S&H with a framework in which to offer a theory, generational or otherwise, in the first place.

In order to test S&H's theory, we must first discern whether the societal mood has changed from that which we knew in the roughly 20 years prior to the proposed turning (911 or otherwise). I think it is abundantly clear the mood has changed from that which we knew in the '80s and '90s. We be 4T, but pre-regeneracy 4T which seems to be a source of confusion to a lot of people. There is no necessity that the bulk of the Crisis period to come even concern itself with the Middle East or a "war on terror" or anything else we are discussing today. All that is relevant is the fact that the societal mood is now not what it was through the '80s and '90s; that we crossed a watershed and things suddenly began getting worse and worse and worse. And in the end, S&H's generations are not really out of alignment anyway. But certainly Mike Alexander would get credited with a more accurate prediction.

The events of 9/11/01 were traumatic, especially considering the telegenic way in which they unfolded. My guess is that such events would've been considered tragic regardless of what turning they occurred in. But they happened when a third turning was, in 'Strauss-n-Howian' terms (T4T neologism, pass it on), quite mature but admittedly not quite ripe for a turning change. As most of you know, I believe this explains this Phony Fourth limbo we reside in.

I can be placed more or less in the orthodox camp of our little community of the saecularly interested, and as such I currently see generational alignment and interactions as the primary engine of the saeculum. But I am open to the "material cause" theory and other ideas, and I think some combination of economic, technological, and cultural factors in the 15th and 16th centuries precipitated the intensification of a cycle that was already there.

So I see the Phony Fourth as being one of two things. One is as an immature triggering of a fourth turning mood. The mood, thus partially ignited, has been smoldering, neither raging out-of-control or going out. The second is as a very intense third turning reaction; kinda like having 1917-1920 happening several years later.

As for the first way, the result of having 9/11 occur so close to the end of a third turning is a strange transition. On the one hand you have a massive reorganization involving the creation of the Department of Homeland Security (note: "Homeland"), you have beat cops being asked for the first time in our history to enforce federal immigration laws, you have the selective suspension of the writ of habeas corpus supported by the Supreme Court, you see us going into Iraq with a surprising amount of consensus (at least initially), you see the transmorgification of soccer moms into "security moms", you see the public willing to support radical changes to our basic foreign policy positions (at least for now), and you see host of other things all pointing at a fourth turning.

Yet . . . on the other hand we also see people spending and going into debt like there is no tomorrow, we see house prices staying ludicrously high beyond any rational support, we see celebrity circus trials continuing in popularity, we see Culture Wars arguments continuing ad nauseum, and for crying out loud we have Madonna frenching Britney . . . and what is with this Nip & Tuck show?!?!?!

In essence we could argue that there is a mish-mosh of turnings going on here. A long, strange transition with blatant aspects of both living side-by-side for the time being.

A second way I see the Phony Fourth is as possibly an intense third turning reaction given a brief fourth turning flavor at the outset. All of the fourth-esque (neologism alert!) "blatant aspects" I mentioned above seem similar to me to our society's reaction to WWI and the anarchist events that followed. Mitchell Palmer, meet John Ashcroft. And the Patriot Act doesn't seem so unprecedented when you look back at 1917-1920. I'm sure many of you can see more comparisons.

Either way, whether the Phony Fourth is a turning hybrid or an intense 3T reaction, we are very likely on the cusp of a "real" fourth turning soon, or at least one would think so if they adhere to saecular orthodoxy. If other 3T-to-4T gateways (i.e., pre-regeneracy periods) are any indication, the smoldering whisps of smoke emanating from this strange post-9/11 period are about to flashover like a Christmas tree in February.

I agree that, overall, the Silent are still keeping the light on, that early-wave Boomers are not rushing into Elder mode just yet, and that Xer's, esp. the Nintendo wave, or still partying-hardying. But if Strauss & Howe are right (about both boundries and mechanisms), then the Boomer 61, Xer 43, Millenial 22 line up we'll see next year is some fairly dry pine needles awaiting some dumb kid with a match (and we know Kim Jong-Il, for example, likes playing with them). And I'd venture that with the Phony Fourth already priming the kindling, we should be in for a nice, hot roast.

mandelbrot:

I walked around the corner into my library of old teaching books to be able to honestly, I'm looking at Bird's book. :wink: I have it. It is a very good book, the ears of my copy are pretty worn. :wink: I would read passages from it to my students to give them a feel for what the GD was like for people back then. I remember getting it in the late 1960s when it was pretty new. It came out at a good time, too. Before then, we'd be able to get older people, GI's, from the VFW or such, to come in and give their personal remembrances to students.

sean:

sorry I probably came off in my post as a bit aggravated. It's just frustrating for me to discuss this stuff sometimes with people who don't share my childhood (or really my gen phases in total -- Croaker's even almost 10 years younger than me). Sometimes through no one's fault, I feel illegitimate almost, like I have to compete with books about my own lifetime.

I know you carefully worded your posit for it to be either 3 or 4T. The phoney definition is mine alone. I guess I'm probably the only one who could see it as meaning "fake". Please believe me, though, I did not mean at all to imply that your meaning was "fake" or that your idea is. I think it's a very good idea.

I also think that 9/11, which greatly affected on a personal level people here like you and Chris, will be the catalyst of a far-reaching and lengthy change in our foreign policy. I just wanted you to know that no matter about the turnings, I do share the belief that 9/11 was an important and traumatic event.

mandelbrot:

I walked around the corner into my library of old teaching books to be able to honestly, I'm looking at Bird's book. :wink: I have it. It is a very good book, the ears of my copy are pretty worn. :wink: I would read passages from it to my students to give them a feel for what the GD was like for people back then. I remember getting it in the late 1960s when it was pretty new. It came out at a good time, too. Before then, we'd be able to get older people, GI's, from the VFW or such, to come in and give their personal remembrances to students.

sean:

sorry I probably came off in my post as a bit aggravated. It's just frustrating for me to discuss this stuff sometimes with people who don't share my childhood (or really my gen phases in total -- Croaker's even almost 10 years younger than me). Sometimes through no one's fault, I feel illegitimate almost, like I have to compete with books about my own lifetime.

I know you carefully worded your posit for it to be either 3 or 4T. The phoney definition is mine alone. I guess I'm probably the only one who could see it as meaning "fake". Please believe me, though, I did not mean at all to imply that your meaning was "fake" or that your idea is. I think it's a very good idea.

I also think that 9/11, which greatly affected on a personal level people here like you and Chris, will be the catalyst of a far-reaching and lengthy change in our foreign policy. I just wanted you to know that no matter about the turnings, I do share the belief that 9/11 was an important and traumatic event.

Originally Posted by Sean Love

Hell, you are the "poverty child". Even such a nickname was meant in good fun it too must've had an impact. My grandmother (1921-2003) told me of the family having squirrels and rabbit for dinner. Hard times.

I have had rabbit for dinner at home and at friends homes in the High and Unravelling; and squirrels in the High and Awakening. There have been "hard" times for some people in even a nation as wealthy as the U.S. even during the Clinton/ Dot-Com Bubble years. When the "poor" invite you to sit down and share a meal or offer you a discount soda or a budget brand of beer... it the hospitality that counts and not the quality of the stuff on the table. (Miss Manners has written that one always supposes that the food one receives as a guest will be good. One ought not to make a big deal of it with either lavish praise or distress of any kind.) A plate of Brunswick stew is not a marker of "hard times" anymore than a $6.00 cup of mocha-latte.

There are "poverty children" all about. That they or their parents don't post at T4T or they are not on Fox News and rarely on PBS doesn't mean they aren't around. They work in your homes and they work in your Big Block Stores and in your Fast Food drive-in lines.

Originally Posted by Sean Love

Hell, you are the "poverty child". Even such a nickname was meant in good fun it too must've had an impact. My grandmother (1921-2003) told me of the family having squirrels and rabbit for dinner. Hard times.

I have had rabbit for dinner at home and at friends homes in the High and Unravelling; and squirrels in the High and Awakening. There have been "hard" times for some people in even a nation as wealthy as the U.S. even during the Clinton/ Dot-Com Bubble years. When the "poor" invite you to sit down and share a meal or offer you a discount soda or a budget brand of beer... it the hospitality that counts and not the quality of the stuff on the table. (Miss Manners has written that one always supposes that the food one receives as a guest will be good. One ought not to make a big deal of it with either lavish praise or distress of any kind.) A plate of Brunswick stew is not a marker of "hard times" anymore than a $6.00 cup of mocha-latte.

There are "poverty children" all about. That they or their parents don't post at T4T or they are not on Fox News and rarely on PBS doesn't mean they aren't around. They work in your homes and they work in your Big Block Stores and in your Fast Food drive-in lines.

rather than dine like this. :o