I'm all for being 3T/4T agnostic. We're all froggies in the water waiting for that boiling point to arrive. Right, Croaker? :wink:

Originally Posted by Justin '77

The musings of a provider of Security

Guaranteed to infuriate! :wink:

Nothing infuriating about it. He overstates his case somewhat, but there's quite a bit of truth in some of what he says. For all the talk of 4T, the stakes today are much lower than they were in 1980.

Originally Posted by Justin '77

The musings of a provider of Security

Guaranteed to infuriate! :wink:

Nothing infuriating about it. He overstates his case somewhat, but there's quite a bit of truth in some of what he says. For all the talk of 4T, the stakes today are much lower than they were in 1980.

Originally Posted by Barbara

Originally Posted by mmailliw 8419

Originally Posted by Starkk

And as has been pointed out previously in this thread, the last awakening started in 1964, and yet as of 1966, people didn't know that the country had changed forever. 1966 wasn't much different than 1963. Had we been around in '66 looking for proof that we were in an awakening, would we have even found it?

Which is why I think the 2T started in 1966-7 and not 1963-4

Me, too, William, me, too. :wink: Don't we also agree on suspicioning that the 3T began sometime during Reagan's second term? Mine is largely based on the appearance of neo-ism in our politiks......

I increasingly lean toward 1985-86 being the start of the Third Turning. By the way, Barbara, I agree with just about everything you said about the life-changes of the last 4T beginning. I see more and more parallels between now and the middle-to-late twenties (from what I can perceive of the mid 20s). It won't surprise me a bit if the 4T turns out to begin in 2005, 06, or even as late as 07.

OTOH, it could start tomorrow, depending on circumstances. But I'm also increasingly of the opinion that such would mark an 'early start'.

One other element that should be added for consideration about the Great Depression: the weather. On top of everything else, the Dust Bowl and other environmental/climatic nastiness set in at the worst possible time, playing a major role in the the loss of population from the Plains and esp. Oklahoma, the beginning of 'the Okies'.

Originally Posted by Barbara

Originally Posted by mmailliw 8419

Originally Posted by Starkk

And as has been pointed out previously in this thread, the last awakening started in 1964, and yet as of 1966, people didn't know that the country had changed forever. 1966 wasn't much different than 1963. Had we been around in '66 looking for proof that we were in an awakening, would we have even found it?

Which is why I think the 2T started in 1966-7 and not 1963-4

Me, too, William, me, too. :wink: Don't we also agree on suspicioning that the 3T began sometime during Reagan's second term? Mine is largely based on the appearance of neo-ism in our politiks......

I increasingly lean toward 1985-86 being the start of the Third Turning. By the way, Barbara, I agree with just about everything you said about the life-changes of the last 4T beginning. I see more and more parallels between now and the middle-to-late twenties (from what I can perceive of the mid 20s). It won't surprise me a bit if the 4T turns out to begin in 2005, 06, or even as late as 07.

OTOH, it could start tomorrow, depending on circumstances. But I'm also increasingly of the opinion that such would mark an 'early start'.

One other element that should be added for consideration about the Great Depression: the weather. On top of everything else, the Dust Bowl and other environmental/climatic nastiness set in at the worst possible time, playing a major role in the the loss of population from the Plains and esp. Oklahoma, the beginning of 'the Okies'.

Originally Posted by Sean Love

I have been talking to loads of folks out here in Silicon Valley about the difference between this downturn and the one around 1989-94 (those were bad years for the valley). This is far, far, far, far worse. Heck, I'm losing customers left and right (as in they're going out of business). The only thing really hot right now (by personal, anecdotal observation) is Homeland Security stuff.

Yeah, but bear in mind that the whole nature of this downturn reflects in part the collapse of the tech bubble in the 90s, which was fairly clearly a bubble at the time. Silicon Valley is ground-zero of the downturn, esp. the collapse of the 'Internet changes everything' fantasy.

Originally Posted by Sean Love

I have been talking to loads of folks out here in Silicon Valley about the difference between this downturn and the one around 1989-94 (those were bad years for the valley). This is far, far, far, far worse. Heck, I'm losing customers left and right (as in they're going out of business). The only thing really hot right now (by personal, anecdotal observation) is Homeland Security stuff.

Yeah, but bear in mind that the whole nature of this downturn reflects in part the collapse of the tech bubble in the 90s, which was fairly clearly a bubble at the time. Silicon Valley is ground-zero of the downturn, esp. the collapse of the 'Internet changes everything' fantasy.

Originally Posted by Kiff 1961

I'm all for being 3T/4T agnostic. We're all froggies in the water waiting for that boiling point to arrive. Right, Croaker? :wink:

:lol:

Ewww, you know what? This 3T/4T agnostic is not going to eat frog legs ever again (not that I ever ate them much anyway)..... :o

Originally Posted by Kiff 1961

I'm all for being 3T/4T agnostic. We're all froggies in the water waiting for that boiling point to arrive. Right, Croaker? :wink:

:lol:

Ewww, you know what? This 3T/4T agnostic is not going to eat frog legs ever again (not that I ever ate them much anyway)..... :o

Originally Posted by HopefulCynic68

I increasingly lean toward 1985-86 being the start of the Third Turning. By the way, Barbara, I agree with just about everything you said about the life-changes of the last 4T beginning. I see more and more parallels between now and the middle-to-late twenties (from what I can perceive of the mid 20s). It won't surprise me a bit if the 4T turns out to begin in 2005, 06, or even as late as 07.

OTOH, it could start tomorrow, depending on circumstances. But I'm also increasingly of the opinion that such would mark an 'early start'.

Thank you for noting this, HC. I moved this weekend back into the T'agnostic underground. The debating over 3T/4T gets old for me and so I'm just going to try to be like I was the first time I was on the board. I cannot ignore all those parallels with the 20's, and if we aren't yet in the 4T and we do not get into it early, then those are valid parallels. OTOH, I cannot ignore the odds that we could be in the 4T and if so, I think it came early, due to those 'circumstances' you allude to.

One other element that should be added for consideration about the Great Depression: the weather. On top of everything else, the Dust Bowl and other environmental/climatic nastiness set in at the worst possible time, playing a major role in the the loss of population from the Plains and esp. Oklahoma, the beginning of 'the Okies'.

Oh, yes. Good that you remembered this. The droughts started in 1930. Unemployment among Blacks was 50% in 1930. There's a direct connection there. Blacks were/are often the forgotten citizens in the last 4T, but they weigh heavily with me. Farmers, too. Those two groups never fully saw any of the gains or good lives of the decade before. When the drought started in the Great Plains, well, no more hoping for good times around the corner for them.

Originally Posted by HopefulCynic68

I increasingly lean toward 1985-86 being the start of the Third Turning. By the way, Barbara, I agree with just about everything you said about the life-changes of the last 4T beginning. I see more and more parallels between now and the middle-to-late twenties (from what I can perceive of the mid 20s). It won't surprise me a bit if the 4T turns out to begin in 2005, 06, or even as late as 07.

OTOH, it could start tomorrow, depending on circumstances. But I'm also increasingly of the opinion that such would mark an 'early start'.

Thank you for noting this, HC. I moved this weekend back into the T'agnostic underground. The debating over 3T/4T gets old for me and so I'm just going to try to be like I was the first time I was on the board. I cannot ignore all those parallels with the 20's, and if we aren't yet in the 4T and we do not get into it early, then those are valid parallels. OTOH, I cannot ignore the odds that we could be in the 4T and if so, I think it came early, due to those 'circumstances' you allude to.

One other element that should be added for consideration about the Great Depression: the weather. On top of everything else, the Dust Bowl and other environmental/climatic nastiness set in at the worst possible time, playing a major role in the the loss of population from the Plains and esp. Oklahoma, the beginning of 'the Okies'.

Oh, yes. Good that you remembered this. The droughts started in 1930. Unemployment among Blacks was 50% in 1930. There's a direct connection there. Blacks were/are often the forgotten citizens in the last 4T, but they weigh heavily with me. Farmers, too. Those two groups never fully saw any of the gains or good lives of the decade before. When the drought started in the Great Plains, well, no more hoping for good times around the corner for them.

Originally Posted by Barbara

Oh, yes. Good that you remembered this. The droughts started in 1930. Unemployment among Blacks was 50% in 1930. There's a direct connection there. Blacks were/are often the forgotten citizens in the last 4T, but they weigh heavily with me. Farmers, too. Those two groups never fully saw any of the gains or good lives of the decade before. When the drought started in the Great Plains, well, no more hoping for good times around the corner for them.

The 'Roaring 20s' as you pointed out, are something of a funhouse mirror version of reality. Poverty was common in the 20s, and the veterans of the Great War were not happy campers, even before the Depression. The politics were acrimonious, too, at least as much so as today.

Ironically, during much of the 20s, Hoover was known for being a humanitarian type. The association of the name 'Hoover' with hard-heartedness came later, and was mostly undeserved, one of the ironies of the time.

Originally Posted by Barbara

Oh, yes. Good that you remembered this. The droughts started in 1930. Unemployment among Blacks was 50% in 1930. There's a direct connection there. Blacks were/are often the forgotten citizens in the last 4T, but they weigh heavily with me. Farmers, too. Those two groups never fully saw any of the gains or good lives of the decade before. When the drought started in the Great Plains, well, no more hoping for good times around the corner for them.

The 'Roaring 20s' as you pointed out, are something of a funhouse mirror version of reality. Poverty was common in the 20s, and the veterans of the Great War were not happy campers, even before the Depression. The politics were acrimonious, too, at least as much so as today.

Ironically, during much of the 20s, Hoover was known for being a humanitarian type. The association of the name 'Hoover' with hard-heartedness came later, and was mostly undeserved, one of the ironies of the time.

Originally Posted by Seadog '66

Originally Posted by Barbara

I'd actually cling to 911 as the catalyst, except that (and I believe you have posted similar doubts, though not as strong, as you are agnostic like I once was and probably should be again) I truly think we are in for a much worse catalytic event that will dwarf 911.

We almost certainly are in for a much worse event or events but that has nothing to do with whether 911 was the catalyst or not. Did not more catastrophic events follow Black Tuesday and the Boston Tea Party? Worsening conditions is the normal trend in a Crisis. The catalyst is simply the point in time at which the mood changes; no more, no less. The severity of the event relative to other Crisis events is not part of the calculation. Nor is the event's relationship or lack thereof to those other Crisis events.

Not only that, but whether 9/11 was the Catalyst depends on whether people ten years from now look back and say to themselves that 9/11 is when everything began to change for the worse. I believe that they will, no matter what happens in the future that may dwarf 911 itself.

...and in Bellevue, Washington this weekend, at the corner of 148th Avenue NE and Main Street, there were NUMEROUS signs announcing a "HUGE Auto Sale". And huge it was. In the parking lot of Kelsey Creek Center (which used to host a K-Mart as its anchor, back in the heady 1990s), there were HUNDREDS of cars, from 5 year old Honda Civics to damn-nearly-new Mercedes Benzes. Apparently there weren't too many interested buyers, judging by the frenetic pace of the Millie sign wavers whom were attempting to flag down passing motorists and pedestrians with the signs...

...it was a bank repossession sale. a BIG one.

Originally Posted by Seadog '66

Originally Posted by Barbara

I'd actually cling to 911 as the catalyst, except that (and I believe you have posted similar doubts, though not as strong, as you are agnostic like I once was and probably should be again) I truly think we are in for a much worse catalytic event that will dwarf 911.

We almost certainly are in for a much worse event or events but that has nothing to do with whether 911 was the catalyst or not. Did not more catastrophic events follow Black Tuesday and the Boston Tea Party? Worsening conditions is the normal trend in a Crisis. The catalyst is simply the point in time at which the mood changes; no more, no less. The severity of the event relative to other Crisis events is not part of the calculation. Nor is the event's relationship or lack thereof to those other Crisis events.

Not only that, but whether 9/11 was the Catalyst depends on whether people ten years from now look back and say to themselves that 9/11 is when everything began to change for the worse. I believe that they will, no matter what happens in the future that may dwarf 911 itself.

...and in Bellevue, Washington this weekend, at the corner of 148th Avenue NE and Main Street, there were NUMEROUS signs announcing a "HUGE Auto Sale". And huge it was. In the parking lot of Kelsey Creek Center (which used to host a K-Mart as its anchor, back in the heady 1990s), there were HUNDREDS of cars, from 5 year old Honda Civics to damn-nearly-new Mercedes Benzes. Apparently there weren't too many interested buyers, judging by the frenetic pace of the Millie sign wavers whom were attempting to flag down passing motorists and pedestrians with the signs...

...it was a bank repossession sale. a BIG one.

Originally Posted by Kevin Parker '59

Not only that, but whether 9/11 was the Catalyst depends on whether people ten years from now look back and say to themselves that 9/11 is when everything began to change for the worse. I believe that they will, no matter what happens in the future that may dwarf 911 itself.

Yes, KP. That very thought hit me head on last night while trying to defend 3T, so I'm back on the agnostic fence again. That's as far as I'm willing to move right now, but I did move back to what I believed the last time I participated here, before I left. The 3T evidence is equally as strong in my mind as the 4T come-early evidence. Because I personally believe the 2T began more like 1966 and the 3T began more like 1986-87, I do not believe it's on time if 911 was it (like Mike A, for instance).

...and in Bellevue, Washington this weekend, at the corner of 148th Avenue NE and Main Street, there were NUMEROUS signs announcing a "HUGE Auto Sale". And huge it was. In the parking lot of Kelsey Creek Center (which used to host a K-Mart as its anchor, back in the heady 1990s), there were HUNDREDS of cars, from 5 year old Honda Civics to damn-nearly-new Mercedes Benzes. Apparently there weren't too many interested buyers, judging by the frenetic pace of the Millie sign wavers whom were attempting to flag down passing motorists and pedestrians with the signs...

...it was a bank repossession sale. a BIG one.

Whoa, that is not encouraging for your area! Maybe the house values will be coming down soon, though. Heard any news about house repos? :o

Originally Posted by Kevin Parker '59

Not only that, but whether 9/11 was the Catalyst depends on whether people ten years from now look back and say to themselves that 9/11 is when everything began to change for the worse. I believe that they will, no matter what happens in the future that may dwarf 911 itself.

Yes, KP. That very thought hit me head on last night while trying to defend 3T, so I'm back on the agnostic fence again. That's as far as I'm willing to move right now, but I did move back to what I believed the last time I participated here, before I left. The 3T evidence is equally as strong in my mind as the 4T come-early evidence. Because I personally believe the 2T began more like 1966 and the 3T began more like 1986-87, I do not believe it's on time if 911 was it (like Mike A, for instance).

...and in Bellevue, Washington this weekend, at the corner of 148th Avenue NE and Main Street, there were NUMEROUS signs announcing a "HUGE Auto Sale". And huge it was. In the parking lot of Kelsey Creek Center (which used to host a K-Mart as its anchor, back in the heady 1990s), there were HUNDREDS of cars, from 5 year old Honda Civics to damn-nearly-new Mercedes Benzes. Apparently there weren't too many interested buyers, judging by the frenetic pace of the Millie sign wavers whom were attempting to flag down passing motorists and pedestrians with the signs...

...it was a bank repossession sale. a BIG one.

Whoa, that is not encouraging for your area! Maybe the house values will be coming down soon, though. Heard any news about house repos? :o

Originally Posted by HopefulCynic68

Ironically, during much of the 20s, Hoover was known for being a humanitarian type. The association of the name 'Hoover' with hard-heartedness came later, and was mostly undeserved, one of the ironies of the time.

I think Hoover should never have been a President. He was not cut out to be one. He was more detailed and valuable on specific controllable missions. His unlucky timing, too, was exacerbated by his party which was beholden to the business & elite classes, so he was not allowed to think for himself as to any solutions. That and his penchant for self-reliance blinded him. What was the axiom of those times?---- Success is achieved, ergo failure is deserved. Did not leave much room for chaotic reality or thinking outside the box.....

Originally Posted by HopefulCynic68

Ironically, during much of the 20s, Hoover was known for being a humanitarian type. The association of the name 'Hoover' with hard-heartedness came later, and was mostly undeserved, one of the ironies of the time.

I think Hoover should never have been a President. He was not cut out to be one. He was more detailed and valuable on specific controllable missions. His unlucky timing, too, was exacerbated by his party which was beholden to the business & elite classes, so he was not allowed to think for himself as to any solutions. That and his penchant for self-reliance blinded him. What was the axiom of those times?---- Success is achieved, ergo failure is deserved. Did not leave much room for chaotic reality or thinking outside the box.....

Oh, I was going to mention another President who was not cut out for it: Truman. He, too, had performed a mission prior to being VP, one that showcased his real talents. Stamping out Congressional / military waste, basically. The difference between Missionary Hoover and Lost Truman, though, was Truman's Nomadic qualities. He MADE his Presidential performance work, whether he was cut out for it or not..

Oh, I was going to mention another President who was not cut out for it: Truman. He, too, had performed a mission prior to being VP, one that showcased his real talents. Stamping out Congressional / military waste, basically. The difference between Missionary Hoover and Lost Truman, though, was Truman's Nomadic qualities. He MADE his Presidential performance work, whether he was cut out for it or not..

The 'Roaring 20s' as you pointed out, are something of a funhouse mirror version of reality. Poverty was common in the 20s, and the veterans of the Great War were not happy campers, even before the Depression. The politics were acrimonious, too, at least as much so as today.

Ironically, during much of the 20s, Hoover was known for being a humanitarian type. The association of the name 'Hoover' with hard-heartedness came later, and was mostly undeserved, one of the ironies of the time.

This also sounds like the 1990's to me. The 1990's is the decade when the rich got richer and blue collar jobs were harder to come by, due to job outsourcing overseas (which is accelearting today for even white collar work). When you think of the great war veterans - think gulf war also.

The 'Roaring 20s' as you pointed out, are something of a funhouse mirror version of reality. Poverty was common in the 20s, and the veterans of the Great War were not happy campers, even before the Depression. The politics were acrimonious, too, at least as much so as today.

Ironically, during much of the 20s, Hoover was known for being a humanitarian type. The association of the name 'Hoover' with hard-heartedness came later, and was mostly undeserved, one of the ironies of the time.

This also sounds like the 1990's to me. The 1990's is the decade when the rich got richer and blue collar jobs were harder to come by, due to job outsourcing overseas (which is accelearting today for even white collar work). When you think of the great war veterans - think gulf war also.

We are half way into the start of the 4T. 911 was just the opening salvo. The social elements of the 3T are so strongly established right now, that it will take something larger to dislodge the 3T mindset. Right now the US is in denial of what lies ahead. This mindset will not last. Believe me, it cannot. Therefore, I say we are 50% 3T and 50% 4T. if that's possible.
If we did maintain the same 3T circus like mindset well into the 4T, then the USA will die this time around.
Dave

We are half way into the start of the 4T. 911 was just the opening salvo. The social elements of the 3T are so strongly established right now, that it will take something larger to dislodge the 3T mindset. Right now the US is in denial of what lies ahead. This mindset will not last. Believe me, it cannot. Therefore, I say we are 50% 3T and 50% 4T. if that's possible.
If we did maintain the same 3T circus like mindset well into the 4T, then the USA will die this time around.
Dave