Originally Posted by Tom Mazanec

I feel that the Fourth will not be "phoney" much longer, probably less time than it already has been. It is interesting to look at the following thread (because this was the Alternate History Discussion Forum, I dated the event as last January...but it could be next!):
http://www.alternatehistory.com/Disc...tml?1067383224

Interesting discussion you touched off there.

I agree that the Phony Fourth days are numbered. If the period between 9/11/01 and now really has been Fourth Turning in nature, then we are witnessesing an unprecedentedly slow and mellow transition. At some point the expected meltdown will occur or at least finally become obvious. Or . . . as I believe Alex has stated, perhaps this 3T/4T transition will simply be unlike the others and go smoothly, without any dramatic breaks.

However if, as I am beginning to suspect, the Phony Fourth has really turned out to be a very anxious last phase to a Third Turning, then the Vertiginous Spiral of an opening 4T is in our not-so-distant future.

As I perhaps awkwardly pointed out in my "Catalyst Constellation Index" post, next year the generational alignment will be, for all practical purposes, ripe for a trigger to come along. Though the leading Boomer cohort will still be two years shy of 63, the Xer's and Millie's will each be a year past their respective phase-of-life markers, 42 and 21 respectively.

If said index does have merit, then we are just as likely to have experienced the trigger this year as were in the years Strauss & Howe identify the last two turning changes occurred. The coming months/two, three years are saecular powderkegs.

Of course I am not suggesting some sort of hard science at work here. But as a rough gauge I think it is very telling.

Yes Tom, I think a plane flying into the Superbowl loaded with VX gas killing upwards of 4,000 people (as the scenario in your link goes) would very likely do the trick at this point.

Interesting discussion you touched off there.

I agree that the Phony Fourth days are numbered. If the period between 9/11/01 and now really has been Fourth Turning in nature, then we are witnessesing an unprecedentedly slow and mellow transition. At some point the expected meltdown will occur or at least finally become obvious. Or . . . as I believe Alex has stated, perhaps this 3T/4T transition will simply be unlike the others and go smoothly, without any dramatic breaks.

However if, as I am beginning to suspect, the Phony Fourth has really turned out to be a very anxious last phase to a Third Turning, then the Vertiginous Spiral of an opening 4T is in our not-so-distant future.

As I perhaps awkwardly pointed out in my "Catalyst Constellation Index" post, next year the generational alignment will be, for all practical purposes, ripe for a trigger to come along. Though the leading Boomer cohort will still be two years shy of 63, the Xer's and Millie's will each be a year past their respective phase-of-life markers, 42 and 21 respectively.

I was just thinking about the Catalyst Constellation Index and I propose a slight change to it - what do you think about this:

Your index supposes that all the generations are equally strong drivers in pushing us into the 4th turning. I think that this is not true.

We will have 5 generations:

The old Silents will be moving out of the picture but will still be exerting a "calming influence" on things. This will mitigate the Boomer's bravado and desire to "settle things" before they die.

The Millies are followers of the Boomers and the Xers will manage the crisis and hold back the excesses of the Boomers. Both of these generations will react rather than being the driving force.

The Boomers are the key. It is their evangelical fire and brimstone attitude - their "total war - take no prisoners" attitude that will be the tip of the spear. More weight should be given to their generational position than the other generations, I think.

As for the New Silent, they are just starting to arrive (I have a little 2 year old niece!) and wont play a decisive role in society for a bit yet.

Looking at the Boomers, they are, as you said, several years shy of 63. The leading generation (victory babies) wont be 63 until 2006. What is more imporant than some magical age, I think, is how they as a group are feeling. Are they ready to drive us to all-out "war" or are they not at the stage of fearing that their own mortality will take them? Thats the question that we really need to ask.

As for the question of whether we are 3T or 4T, I really thing we only need to look at the culture. Yes, some things have changed a bit since 9/11, but what are the most prevalent storeies. J-Lo and Ben and their on again, off-again marriage, Scott Peterson and Kobe Bryant trials and reality TV shows - come on guys - if this was the 4th, we'd know it by now.

Barbara made a very enlightening post awhile back where she describes the unmistakable 4T mood that permeated the nation as early as 1931. We are approximately that distance from the supposed catalyst of 9/11 and I don't know about you, but I don't feel anything like Barbara was describing about the mood in 1931.

I think we are still suffering from a hangover of the DOT-COM fantasy and a rather persistent jobless recovery. I don't feel that the mood is one of crisis, just one of drifting, without much direction. In the DOT-COM era, there was a future vision presented to us and we seemed to have a direction. We don't have that now. The circuses are just faster and more dizzying (to paraphrase TFT). Folks, we aren't in the 4th yet - but in the very last phases of the 3rd.

Just my thoughts,
Taka

Originally Posted by takascar2

As for the question of whether we are 3T or 4T, I really thing we only need to look at the culture. Yes, some things have changed a bit since 9/11, but what are the most prevalent storeies. J-Lo and Ben and their on again, off-again marriage, Scott Peterson and Kobe Bryant trials and reality TV shows - come on guys - if this was the 4th, we'd know it by now.

No, we know it for sure at Regeneracy. But compare the mood now to 1995, let alone 1999, and there's a difference. It's not that everything crashed and burned when the towers fell (and I think the mood has a lot to do with collectively blocking that out of our minds) and there are some 3T relics, but there were plenty to be had in 1931 too.

Taka,

I agree. As I stated in the opening post to this thread:

My understanding is that the primary engine that drives a fourth turning mood shift is that fact the a Prophet generation has 1) achieved a powerful majority in terms of institutional authority and 2) has its vanguard cohorts reaching the edge of elderhood thereby seriously thinking about their own mortality and wondering if the last chance to manifest their dreams has arrived. Concurrent with that is the rapidly dwindling ability of the next-elder Artist generation to (politely) restrain the Prophets? righteous fire as they, the Artists, begin to vacate institutions (and thereafter, this life).

Secondary to this, but still important, is the vanguard Nomad cohorts? transition to caution and pragmatism and the vanguard Hero cohorts? ability and eagerness to temporalize the Prophets? spiritual agenda in their own freshly collegiate way. Note that the Civil War 3T/4T transition did not require these last two items, but that the above generational scripts played an important role in every other transition.

The Boomers will very likely play a bigger role in catalyzing the transition than other generations. Perhaps if I have another caffeine binge, I will add a weighting scale to the index. :P

And I agree with you about how things "feel" right now. Though I think 9/11/01 may still be looked back upon (years from now) as the initial trigger in some symbolic way and the period we're in seen as a sort of limbo (as the Phony War was to WWII, thus "Phony Fourth") I do not believe a fourth turning mood has yet been triggered, technically.

Barbara's post and a quick reading of history demonstrate how every fourth turning thus far has started with a Meltdown phase, the likes of which we have almost surely not seen at this point. Alex points out that there is no rule stating that 3T/4T transitions have to be such, but though I must concede to his point to some degree, I'd say saecular history at least strongly suggests otherwise.

But 9/11 did elicit a very strong societal reaction (and did so as a third turning was becoming quite mature) and I think this is what makes this 3T/4T discernment so difficult. Some say 9/11 is instead more like Bleeding Kansas or the Boston Massacre -- precursors, not triggers. To some extent this is probably right.

However, I see it more akin to our society's reaction to WWI and it's Aftermath (anarchist bombings and the Flu epidemic). WWI brought about a stunning patriotism, intense (if impermenant) government action, and a curtailment of civil rights. The anarchist bombings brought about the Palmer Raids and helped trigger anti-immigration sentiments. The Great Influenza Outbreak raised social anxiety several knotches.

Sound familiar? I see fractal echoes in 9/11-inspired patriotism, the creation of the Department of Homeland Security, the Patriot Act, Gitmo, John Ashcroft, various new restrictions and crackdowns on immigration, and a once (and future?) anxiety about SARS. Not exact, but frighteningly similar nonetheless.

NOW . . . warp yourself into an alternate history where the events of 1917-1920 happened later in that third turning instead, say 1924-1927, or thereabouts. If there are any comparisons to be made, that is the one that seems most relevant to me.

I hear ya on the two-year old. I have a two-year old lil' Homelander son. And I worry . . .

Originally Posted by Earl and Mooch

Originally Posted by takascar2

As for the question of whether we are 3T or 4T, I really thing we only need to look at the culture. Yes, some things have changed a bit since 9/11, but what are the most prevalent storeies. J-Lo and Ben and their on again, off-again marriage, Scott Peterson and Kobe Bryant trials and reality TV shows - come on guys - if this was the 4th, we'd know it by now.

No, we know it for sure at Regeneracy. But compare the mood now to 1995, let alone 1999, and there's a difference. It's not that everything crashed and burned when the towers fell (and I think the mood has a lot to do with collectively blocking that out of our minds) and there are some 3T relics, but there were plenty to be had in 1931 too.

E&M,

You may be right. But if we have already reached the Regeneracy, then this was the smoothest 3T/4T transition ever.

*** ***

Originally Posted by Sean Love

You may be right. But if we have already reached the Regeneracy, then this was the smoothest 3T/4T transition ever.

No, unless it was yesterday with the helicopter going down (not impossible) we haven't reached Regeneracy. When we do it will smack us in the face as hard as the Catalyst did, or will. (I have no reason to believe 9/11/2001 wasn't it, but I don't know that it was. At the same time I've been smacked in the face plenty in the past two years.)

The Boston Tea Party - and the others like it, including the one in Annapolis where the ship(s) were burned - might not have seemed on the surface to be that big a deal. But after that Parliament cracked down on the colonies even harder, especially Massachusetts which it placed under what amounted to military government. The colonies started to converse among themselves and formed the First Continental Congress the next September. The people in Massachusetts (especially) wouldn't stand for occupation, and started running soliders out of town. Lexington and Concord (on the real Patriot's Day, 4/19/1775) was a matter of the Regulars starting to take the resistance head-on. (If you haven't read Johnny Tremain by Esther Forbes, it gives a good novelization of that period in Boston, from 1772 or 1773 to early 1775.)

Strauss and Howe don't place Regeneracy for another year, until early 1776 when the Congress started to seriously talk about independence. So it may not take a true Regeneracy for people to catch on that things have changed - I think we've started to. I've found it much easier in recent weeks to explain Strauss & Howe to people than I did before. And there is no way this administration could have gotten popular (and Congressional) support to buck the UN and go into Iraq (or have even tried to buck the UN) in a 3T, without what has been made into a Catalyst.

Originally Posted by Earl and Mooch

Originally Posted by Sean Love

You may be right. But if we have already reached the Regeneracy, then this was the smoothest 3T/4T transition ever.

No, unless it was yesterday with the helicopter going down (not impossible) we haven't reached Regeneracy. When we do it will smack us in the face as hard as the Catalyst did, or will. (I have no reason to believe 9/11/2001 wasn't it, but I don't know that it was. At the same time I've been smacked in the face plenty in the past two years.)

The Boston Tea Party - and the others like it, including the one in Annapolis where the ship(s) were burned - might not have seemed on the surface to be that big a deal. But after that Parliament cracked down on the colonies even harder, especially Massachusetts which it placed under what amounted to military government. The colonies started to converse among themselves and formed the First Continental Congress the next September. The people in Massachusetts (especially) wouldn't stand for occupation, and started running soliders out of town. Lexington and Concord (on the real Patriot's Day, 4/19/1775) was a matter of the Regulars starting to take the resistance head-on. (If you haven't read Johnny Tremain by Esther Forbes, it gives a good novelization of that period in Boston, from 1772 or 1773 to early 1775.)

E&M,

I'm sorry. I misunderstood your previous post. I thougt you had said we knew for sure we were at the Regeneracy. My bad. :oops:

As for the Boston Tea Party and the Whirlwind that followed, I think it was pretty clear by April 1775 that something fundmentally different was afoot and that things were not spinning out of control but had already spun out of control [BTW, thanks for the tip on Johnny Tremain]. I believe 1775 was also the year that immigration to the colonies came to screeching halt (up to that point, Scotland and Ulster had been pouring gobs and gobs of people through our cities right on into our hinterlands) among other things.

Earl and Mooch wrote:

Strauss and Howe don't place Regeneracy for another year, until early 1776 when the Congress started to seriously talk about independence. So it may not take a true Regeneracy for people to catch on that things have changed - I think we've started to. I've found it much easier in recent weeks to explain Strauss & Howe to people than I did before. And there is no way this administration could have gotten popular (and Congressional) support to buck the UN and go into Iraq (or have even tried to buck the UN) in a 3T, without what has been made into a Catalyst.

Hindsight is (and will be) 20/20. I don't argue that 9/11/01 triggered something big. No argument there. But was it a fourth turning reaction?? From what I've seen, as explained above, what we've seen could even more plausibly be explained as an intense third turning reaction (so far). But said reaction started so close to when a fourth turning was due that they could very easily end up getting melded together when the time comes.

Originally Posted by Tim Walker

Perhaps, as voters, aging Silents & even old G.I.s will influence a Regeneracy election. *** ***

Good point.

The Wonk pointed out how the Boomers Prophets are only an 18-year generation. I think this could make them easier to tame by adjacent generations (though surely still not easily) than say, the 29-year long Transcendentals, who led us into near disaster. Add to this that the Silent will have an unusually strong presence (for an Artist archetype in a 4T) and I think saecular mechanisms are in place to help us get through this coming turning with better chances than otherwise available. But the Boomer "Destructive Generation" has proven itself quite capable of mayhem at whatever phase-of-life it occupies. We'll see.

As for remaining GI's, their role will not be big, but there will be an unprecedented number (and demographic proportion) of them in the "post-elderhood" phase. What effect could they have? Could we begin to witness the firing of fifth piston in this heretofore four-piston engine??

This is not so ludicrous a development if you think about how S&H argue (somewhat plausibly to me) that the youth phase used to be longer and therefore (as the distance between solstice and equinox determine seasonal length) all of the phases and generations were longer in the pre-industrial past. [BTW, Mike Alexander has a fascinating "Materialist Cause" alternative to this].

As a result the elderhood phase used to stretch partially into what is now post-elderhood, but the former phase was still effective. As the Strauss & Howe state on page 54 of The Fourth Turning:

Jung justly observes that "a human being would certainly not grow to be seventy or eighty years old if this longevity had no meaning for the species." This meaning would not differ if 50 percent rather than 5 percent of all newborns reached age eighty. Nature desires that there be at least a few elders in every tribe, but nature may not especially care how many.

What about those few, and disproportionally powerful GI's in post-elderhood? Does/will the same go for them? I've e-mailed the authors about this (and other questions) but have not heard from them.

According to Stonewall Patton/Seadog 66 the Authoritarian Right has been running the show. The current AR bunch reacted to September 11th much the way the AR reacted during the last Unraveling...using force to preserve the status quo, except for those pesky civil liberties. However...what if the country had already entered the jittery tail end of the Unraveling? The Libertarian Left had already been active from at least as early as November '99 (the Battle of Seattle). So although the current AR acted as the old AR did-which was during the easy going, fun phase of the old Unraveling-at least one quadrant was already geared up for agitation this time around. *** ***

Originally Posted by Sean Love

Hindsight is (and will be) 20/20. I don't argue that 9/11/01 triggered something big. No argument there. But was it a fourth turning reaction?? From what I've seen, as explained above, what we've seen could even more plausibly be explained as an intense third turning reaction (so far). But said reaction started so close to when a fourth turning was due that they could very easily end up getting melded together when the time comes.

Yes, we shall see. I'm just saying that 2001=1773 seems to make the most sense right now. We have to remember that in that scenario we're not the Continental Congress, we're King and Parliament. (Our behavior certainly reflects that.) But I don't know if that's necessarily the right analogy.

BTW, Johnny Tremain ends with the Boston establishment sitting around in March or April 1775 waiting for General (and Governor) Gage to give the word to clamp down. They know what's going to happen once he does, but they optimistically believe a better world will come out of that.

The Wonk pointed out how the Boomers Prophets are only an 18-year generation. I think this could make them easier to tame by adjacent generations (though surely still not easily)

Heh! :twisted:

Lotsa luck, dude. Nobody's managed it yet.

************************************************** **************

Originally Posted by Tim Walker

I was speculating that the Silent and remaining GIs might vote against the Boomer who seems most likely to lead us into disaster. Not to tame the Boom generation as such. *** ***

Perhaps "tame" was a bad choice of words. Perhaps I should have said that GI's and Silents would help the Xers in the following task (in Strauss and Howe's words):

The Boomers won't check themselves, nor will Millenials, so the task will fall to 13er's to force the Boomer priest-warriors to give it a rest when the fervor gets too deep, to get real when the sacrifices outweigh the future reward. A 13er may indeed be the intrepid statesman, general, or presidential advisor who prevents some righteous old Aquarian from loosing the fateful lightning and turning the world's lights out [emphasis S&H's].

That sounds better than "tame".

Perhaps instead of a young, "intrepid" Xer pulling a Boomer finger off "the button" it will instead be an old, "ameliorative" Silent. Maybe Jimmy Carter the GI (though a cusper of a "suppressed" character) will still be alive and kicking and go on a hungry strike to save the world. I don't know.

If the youngest G.I.s were born in 1924, they will turn 80 next year. If the Regeneracy election is not next year then the next opportunity will be 2008, and the youngest G.I.s will be 84. Obviously, we can't expect the G.I.s to have any significant influence beyond the Regeneracy. The Silent will have been fading from public life, though perhaps they will have a residual influence for a while longer (as in the courts, as suggested by Strauss and Howe).

However, if the agenda of the winning Boomer faction should set the tone for the following years...then perhaps these two older generations could compensate for the political weakness of the Xers during the early Crisis. *** ***

Just finished reading TFT, then all the posts in this topic today. Whew! Sobering... especially when I consider my hyporthetical future as a GenX Nomad military man heading for crisis. As I read all this, especially Barbara's comments about the Depression, I couldn't help but be reminded of my Great Grandmother's stories of living through the Depression. Born in 1890, she was a young married woman living in Missouri. She lived with us for several years in the late 70s/early 80s. Her stories were vivid; you could practically taste the dust in the air and feel the grinding weight of poverty, struggle and fear in her words. I have never been able to get out of my mind the intensity of her voice as she talked about taking a penny out of the can, turning it over several times, and putting it back. Like many of that era, she was thrifty beyond believing, saved everything and lived very simply. She and my great gradnfather were able to save enough through the Depression years that her savings lasted her from 1970 through 1987, the last several years of which she was in a full-care nursing home.

One thing kind of struck me by the time I got close to the end of the thread. A common theme in everyone's posts seems to be the implicit assumption that the Crisis will be caused by politics (I think I'm saying this badly, so i hope you will follow my train of thought.) I would submit that the although the catalyst may indeed have been 9/11, the real crisis could just as easily be the results of a major shift in our environment as it could the result of politics gone astray. A few months back, I came across a couple of scientific reports about oceanography (of all things) talking abou the worrisome trend of changes in the Gulf Stream and potential impact on other major ocean currents. (see http://www.whoi.edu/institutes/occi/...uptclimate.htm if you really want to go to bed and not sleep well...) Shortly before that, I chanced upon a fascianting book about El Nino; the ties were scary between the two. Now, I'm wondering... What if the Crisis we face is the predicated "Abrupt Climate Change" that Woods Hole scientists are starting to be worried over? Before dismissingit out of hand, stop for a minute to consider the impact to our society if most of Nothern Europe was under permanent fall/winter conditions, the upper two-thirds of the north American continent turned into a high, dry and cold desert. Would we face a crisis that could threaten our entire existence? Would the society that emerged out of the other side of the crisis be vastly different from anything we've imagined to date? I'd say that "yes" is a conservatively safe answer to both questions. Food for thought at least...

*** ***

Originally Posted by Tim Walker

Somebody should challenge me when I make speculations-about generations-without a scrap of historical precedent. *** ***

The amount of people surviving into (and the demographic percentages of people in) elderhood and post-elderhood is historically unprecedented. A little speculation never killed anyone (or has it?).

Be good to yourself. Speculate.

Originally Posted by J-66

Just finished reading TFT, then all the posts in this topic today. Whew! Sobering... especially when I consider my hyporthetical future as a GenX Nomad military man heading for crisis. As I read all this, especially Barbara's comments about the Depression, I couldn't help but be reminded of my Great Grandmother's stories of living through the Depression. Born in 1890, she was a young married woman living in Missouri. She lived with us for several years in the late 70s/early 80s. Her stories were vivid; you could practically taste the dust in the air and feel the grinding weight of poverty, struggle and fear in her words. I have never been able to get out of my mind the intensity of her voice as she talked about taking a penny out of the can, turning it over several times, and putting it back. Like many of that era, she was thrifty beyond believing, saved everything and lived very simply. She and my great gradnfather were able to save enough through the Depression years that her savings lasted her from 1970 through 1987, the last several years of which she was in a full-care nursing home.

One thing kind of struck me by the time I got close to the end of the thread. A common theme in everyone's posts seems to be the implicit assumption that the Crisis will be caused by politics (I think I'm saying this badly, so i hope you will follow my train of thought.) I would submit that the although the catalyst may indeed have been 9/11, the real crisis could just as easily be the results of a major shift in our environment as it could the result of politics gone astray. A few months back, I came across a couple of scientific reports about oceanography (of all things) talking abou the worrisome trend of changes in the Gulf Stream and potential impact on other major ocean currents. (see http://www.whoi.edu/institutes/occi/...uptclimate.htm if you really want to go to bed and not sleep well...) Shortly before that, I chanced upon a fascianting book about El Nino; the ties were scary between the two. Now, I'm wondering... What if the Crisis we face is the predicated "Abrupt Climate Change" that Woods Hole scientists are starting to be worried over? Before dismissingit out of hand, stop for a minute to consider the impact to our society if most of Nothern Europe was under permanent fall/winter conditions, the upper two-thirds of the north American continent turned into a high, dry and cold desert. Would we face a crisis that could threaten our entire existence? Would the society that emerged out of the other side of the crisis be vastly different from anything we've imagined to date? I'd say that "yes" is a conservatively safe answer to both questions. Food for thought at least...

Thanks for the link. I am delving into it. Thank you for your post.

J-66-- thanks for your post. I've been saying since I started posting here in 1997 that the Crisis will be primarily environmental. We will have to adapt by making huge changes, I think.

However, this cause of the 4T is not divorced from "politics." We have known of the need to change our lifestyle and industry to save our environment since Earth Day 1970. Virtually nothing has been done, due to the intransigence of Republicans and the complicity of Democrats. For example, we still have gas guzzling cars and SUVs on the road today when they could all have been non-polluting by now. And today we are giving virtually no attention to the environment, but instead making it much worse and adding flames to the Crisis, because an idiot was allowed to be given the presidency by fraud. This idiot, this fascist pig, is now busy diverting attention from environmental destruction he and others are causing, with a totally unnecessary war whose main purpose is to prop up and support the very industries that are destroying our planet. And this just continues the trend perpetrated by his father and his father's boss.

No, politics and environment is one Crisis. This crisis could have been solved long ago, but we have been adrift and stagnant during our late 2T and our 3T. We are all to blame for allowing this to happen, and being deceived by the right-wing slogans. Wake up, people.

Originally Posted by eameece

J-66-- thanks for your post. I've been saying since I started posting here in 1997 that the Crisis will be primarily environmental. We will have to adapt by making huge changes, I think.

However, this cause of the 4T is not divorced from "politics." We have known of the need to change our lifestyle and industry to save our environment since Earth Day 1970. Virtually nothing has been done, due to the intransigence of Republicans and the complicity of Democrats. For example, we still have gas guzzling cars and SUVs on the road today when they could all have been non-polluting by now. And today we are giving virtually no attention to the environment, but instead making it much worse and adding flames to the Crisis, because an idiot was allowed to be given the presidency by fraud. This idiot, this fascist pig, is now busy diverting attention from environmental destruction he and others are causing, with a totally unnecessary war whose main purpose is to prop up and support the very industries that are destroying our planet. And this just continues the trend perpetrated by his father and his father's boss.

No, politics and environment is one Crisis. This crisis could have been solved long ago, but we have been adrift and stagnant during our late 2T and our 3T. We are all to blame for allowing this to happen, and being deceived by the right-wing slogans. Wake up, people.

What about all of the left wing "slogans" and personal attacks against The President that you included in the above post? I don't see many solutions in those words.

"Since Earth Day 1970" - so arrogant and typcial of a boomer to spout
morality down at the "ignorant masses".

Like, the problems of the world weren't "noticed" until you hippies came along and had your woodstock and "earth day 1970" and that your solutions that came out of these "summits" were the salvation of the world, like you were Moses coming down the mountain with the Ten Commandments - GIVE ME A BREAK, ALREADY.

There is still a major dispute the global warming is caused by human activity and if it is, if it is 100% caused by human activity. There may be nothing that we can do about it if its just a part of a natural cycle as some studies suggest.

Actually, an abrupt climate change would transcend the S&H model - it would threaten the very existence of life on planet earth, regardless of what turning they occur in. Socio-political matters like TFT stuff are much "higher up the protocol stack" to use a computer networking term.

Turnings are caused by the alignment of generations in certain life-phases, not by global, natural phenomenon. I could see some natural disaster being the catalyst if we were all aligned for it, but it would still be driven by the generations, not by the event itself. I think that the catalyst will be a more human-generated affair (terrorism, economic, wars, social unrest, etc). Look at history - they have all been human-caused affairs.

Originally Posted by Sean Love

A little speculation never killed anyone (or has it?).

Ivar Kreugar

Originally Posted by eameece

JWe have known of the need to change our lifestyle and industry to save our environment since Earth Day 1970. Virtually nothing has been done, due to the intransigence of Republicans and the complicity of Democrats. For example, we still have gas guzzling cars and SUVs on the road today when they could all have been non-polluting by now. And today we are giving virtually no attention to the environment, but instead making it much worse and adding flames to the Crisis, because an idiot was allowed to be given the presidency by fraud. This idiot, this fascist pig, is now busy diverting attention from environmental destruction he and others are causing, with a totally unnecessary war whose main purpose is to prop up and support the very industries that are destroying our planet. And this just continues the trend perpetrated by his father and his father's boss.

Now, now, you overlook some very important philosophical developments. I am not talking about the dramatic reduction in air pollutants or the increase in water quality because the enviros keep moving the goalposts. I am not talking about the huge number of chemical and manufacturing jobs that have left this country due to the regulatory scheme now in place. No, those are transitory things.

The most important development of the environmental movement has been the development and dissemination of the Precautionary Principle. That Principle holds that in the face of enormous, unacceptable risks, even if unproven, action must be taken to mitigate those risks. That is, uncertainty in future developments mandates action now to prevent the risk, even if ultimately the warning was based on flawed data. Action must be taken immediately because waiting for, say, global warming to be proven, will be too late.

This Principle was originally proposed in defense of the environment. It has been applied now in defense of the nation's security.

Thank you, environmental movement, for providing the intellectual construct of the current War on Terror.

But that "environmental movement" you admire has stridently opposed nuclear power for all the wrong reasons. By suppressing the nuclear option, and by preventing its technological evolution, the "environmental movement" has forced us to ravage for fossil fuels, degrade the biosphere, and make several wars along the way. We are self-righteous fools, at least where environmental preservation is concerned.

I will allow the true admirers of the movement to reply publicly.