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Posted by: Tristan Jones (Tristan Jones )

Date posted: Sun Dec 17 4:50:38 EST 2000
Subject: Reply to David
Message:
David Kaiser Wrote . . . .they don't sound like Millennials to me!

I agree, however these kids sound like Nomads rather than Heroes, renforces my view that Mainland of Europe (France included) are about 4 years behind USA/Canada on saeculum, their Millenial Hero generation probably did not start to be born until 1986 at latest.
If you want to debate with me on this further please e-mail me at Tristan@mail.scm-rpg.com.au
You and I seem to be reserve of each other when doing saeculums of other countries, I bevelie France is on same cycle as North Americia and I think Japan is on a different cycle. You think France is on a different cycle and Japan on same cycle as North Americia.

Posted by: Chris Ellefson (Chris Ellefson )

Date posted: Sat Dec 23 22:58:46 EST 2000
Subject: Dominant Generation
Message:
From the demographic information, France clearly has a middle aged "dominant" generation. The question is: "Is it a Prophet or hero generation?" When I ask the key questions that differentiate between to two, the current "baby-boom" demographic comes up "Hero". The question are:
1. Are families strong or weak - Strong but weakening 2. Is the gap between gender roles wide or narrow - wide 3. Are ideals settled or debated? Seem to be championed on to settled. 4. Is the culture cynical or innocent? Seems to be going from innocent to passionate as middle agers defend the status quo. 5. Is the social structure unified or diversified? It seem to me to be very unified starting to splinter. 6. Is the worldview simple or complex. It seems to be fairly simple, although nothing about the French is very simple. I see it as simple compared to other times when the French interaction with the rest of the world seemed much more complex. 7. Is the social priority maximum community or maximum individualism? It seems to be maximum community with rising individulaism. For instance, the French language only rules indicate maximum community, while the articles shown on this list show an increase in individualism. 8. What is the social motivator? Shame or guilt? It seems to me to still be shame with a move toward conscience. 9. What is the sense of greatest need? Do what works, or do what feels right? Seems to me the middle aged are doing what works. 10. What was the emotion of the gulf war in which France played a pivotal role? Seemed to me to be total commitment. However, the war never required a total commitment so it is hard to tell. The war seemed also to have a certain restorative effect for the French. Something to be proud of.
This questioning still leads me to believe that the French are just finishing a high and going into an awakening. I remember in the 1960's when articles that read very similar to the one posted that claimed the hippies were doing all the same terrible things. Still would be interesting to hear from someone who has lived the last generation or so in France.
I will try to post some demographics info from the US Census Bureau.
Demographic Indicators: 2000 and 2025
2000 2025 Births per 1,000 population...............12 10 Deaths per 1,000 population............... 9 11 Rate of natural increase (percent 0.3 0.0 Annual rate of growth (percent)...........0.4 0.0 Life expectancy at birth (years).......... 78.8 81.8 Infant deaths per 1,000 live births....... 5 4 Total fertility rate (per woman).......... 1.7 1.7
Midyear Population Estimates and Average Annual Period Growth Rates: 1950 to 2050 (Population in thousands, rate in percent)
Growth Year Population Year Population Period Rate
1950 41,829 1996 58,391 1950-1960 0.9 1960 45,670 1997 58,627 1960-1970 1.1 1970 50,787 1998 58,865 1970-1980 0.6 1980 53,870 1999 59,101 1980-1990 0.5 1990 56,735 2000 59,330 1990-2000 0.4
1991 57,055 2010 61,069 2000-2010 0.3 1992 57,374 2020 61,849 2010-2020 0.1 1993 57,658 2030 61,926 2020-2030 0.0 1994 57,907 2040 60,846 2030-2040 -0.2 1995 58,150 2050 58,967 2040-2050 -0.3
Midyear Population, by Age and Sex: 2000 and 2025 (Population in thousands)
------------2000----------- ------------2025----------- AGE TOTAL MALE FEMALE TOTAL MALE FEMALE
TOTAL 59,330 28,915 30,415 61,993 30,189 31,804 00-04 3,657 1,876 1,781 3,178 1,631 1,547 05-09 3,682 1,886 1,796 3,267 1,676 1,590 10-14 3,829 1,958 1,871 3,350 1,719 1,631 15-19 3,900 1,994 1,906 3,448 1,768 1,680 20-24 3,784 1,932 1,852 3,600 1,843 1,757 25-29 4,301 2,189 2,113 3,726 1,903 1,822 30-34 4,301 2,159 2,141 3,744 1,907 1,838 35-39 4,322 2,145 2,177 3,877 1,967 1,910 40-44 4,260 2,107 2,153 3,923 1,986 1,937 45-49 4,221 2,093 2,127 3,770 1,901 1,869 50-54 4,109 2,051 2,057 4,196 2,101 2,096 55-59 2,783 1,381 1,402 4,092 2,006 2,086 60-64 2,688 1,293 1,395 3,969 1,897 2,073 65-69 2,711 1,248 1,463 3,717 1,732 1,986 70-74 2,466 1,070 1,396 3,408 1,541 1,867 75-79 2,100 838 1,262 2,947 1,281 1,666 80-84 961 345 616 1,630 656 974 85+ 1,255 349 907 2,152 676 1,476
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Data Base 11.

Posted by: Lis Libengood
Date posted: Sat Dec 30 14:58:54 EST 2000
Subject: Article on France
Message:
They don't sound like Nomads or Heroes to me. Sound like young Prophets. Also, Chris' analysis is excellent. I still firmly believe that France, like the other countries that did not adopt the Protestant Reformation, is currently running nearly opposite of us.

Posted by: Jake M. (Jake M. )

Date posted: Tue Jan 9 23:54:43 EST 2001
Subject: Women In the french revoultion
Message:
Hi everyone I need help here. I am doing a reprt about women in the feench revoultion, and I need help on the rights they had. If anybody has info please e-mail me. undefined07@yahoo.com

The cheese-eating surrender monkeys have upset Newscorp and the Northeastern U.S. newspaper that has the Pulitzer for Mr. Walter Duranty by voting for Mr. Chirac and Mr. Le Pen as 1 and 2 for the run off elction for President of France. Mr. Le Pen is not a Euro-man, he'll get the Joerg Haider treatment from the forces of Progress...Europe unravelling?

On 2002-04-21 20:50, Virgil K. Saari wrote:
The cheese-eating surrender monkeys have upset Newscorp and the Northeastern U.S. newspaper that has the Pulitzer for Mr. Walter Duranty by voting for Mr. Chirac and Mr. Le Pen as 1 and 2 for the run off elction for President of France. Mr. Le Pen is not a Euro-man, he'll get the Joerg Haider treatment from the forces of Progress...Europe unravelling?

That was interesting! France is, if anything, almost the epitome of the 'modern' or better yet the 'post-modern' European idea. Of course, with the expansion of the EU to the east and the shifts in internal structure, the dominant position looks to be about to shift from France to Germany, which might explain a rethinking in France.

The reaction of the rest of Europe (which averages well to the Left of America) should be very interesting. The internal reaction in France should also be worthy of note. There have already been street protests.

Virgil, I had the same reaction to the French vote. Reminds me of our big right turn in the early '80s. There was an awful lot of shock in the media and in the country in general when Reagan did so well. It was the beginning of the all-out culture wars for us. It will be interesting to watch our sunshine pals the next several years.

On 2002-04-22 06:00, Lis '54 wrote:
Virgil, I had the same reaction to the French vote. Reminds me of our big right turn in the early '80s. There was an awful lot of shock in the media and in the country in general when Reagan did so well. It was the beginning of the all-out culture wars for us. It will be interesting to watch our sunshine pals the next several years.

The National Front's rise and rise in France parallels other far right groups all over Europe. There is massive disenchantment with the political system in Europe, at levels unimaginable in the United States.

America, Britain and Canada have been spared the rise of the far right, which has blighted Europe and Australasia. Even quite prosperous nations in Western Europe with low unemployment rates and quite prosperous economies like Denmark and the Netherlands (both countries have US levels of unemployment and employment) have had far right parties emerging as major political players.

France like the rest of Western Europe is very deep into the unravelling. Western Europe's attuide to immigrants (both legal and illegal) seems to be hardening of late, another unravelling sign.

Is it me, or is the US normally spared from the rule of loonies? When was the last time the US has had a far-right or a far-left president? All presidents since 1968 have been center-right (with the partial exceptions of Carter and Clinton). All presidents since 1932 have been center-left.

It seems like around 4T eras, Europe always has extremist leaders.

On 2002-04-22 08:57, madscientist wrote:
Is it me, or is the US normally spared from the rule of loonies? When was the last time the US has had a far-right or a far-left president? All presidents since 1968 have been center-right (with the partial exceptions of Carter and Clinton). All presidents since 1932 have been center-left.

It seems like around 4T eras, Europe always has extremist leaders.

1980 - 1988: the Reagan years

On 2002-04-22 08:57, madscientist wrote:
Is it me, or is the US normally spared from the rule of loonies?

LBJ, RMN, JEC, WJC, & Dubya seem quite loon-like from my remove. HTH

Please Mr. Saari,
Which politicians DO you like?
Inquiring minds want to know.

The Senators McCarthy:Tail-Gunner Jo and Clean Gene; Ralph Nader, Russ Feingold, Ronald Reagan, Baroness Thatcher, Pat Buchanan, Jesse "The Mind" Ventura, Lucius Cornelius Sulla, Gen. Augusto Pinochet, John Randolph of Roanoke, John Taylor of Caroline, John Calhoun, H.M. Margrethe II of Denmark, Lech Walesa, Edmund Burke, the current Bishop of Rome...in no particular order. HTH

On 2002-04-22 16:58, Virgil K. Saari wrote:
The Senators McCarthy:Tail-Gunner Jo and Clean Gene; Ralph Nader, Russ Feingold, Ronald Reagan, Baroness Thatcher, Pat Buchanan, Jesse "The Mind" Ventura, Lucius Cornelius Sulla, Gen. Augusto Pinochet, John Randolph of Roanoke, John Taylor of Caroline, John Calhoun, H.M. Margrethe II of Denmark, Lech Walesa, Edmund Burke, the current Bishop of Rome...in no particular order. HTH

Joe McCarthy and Russ Feingold?

Please clarify, Virgil. This I gotta read.

France appears to be in a 3T now. The big news isn't Le Pen's 17%, it's the utterly irresponsible fragmentation of the traditional parties, especially on the Left. Le Pen got 15% last time; he'll be crushed in the election. But the new Prophet/Nomad generations have nothing in common with the leadership who remember the 40s, 50s and early 60s.

David Kaiser '47

On 2002-04-22 19:43, KaiserD2 wrote:
France appears to be in a 3T now. The big news isn't Le Pen's 17%, it's the utterly irresponsible fragmentation of the traditional parties, especially on the Left. Le Pen got 15% last time; he'll be crushed in the election. But the new Prophet/Nomad generations have nothing in common with the leadership who remember the 40s, 50s and early 60s.

Australia in the 1990's experienced a political fragmentation, support for the major parties nose-diven and new parties have emerged out of nowhere. It seems to be a feature of unravellings, apart from the USA everywhere else in the western world has been major political parties support fall and new parties appear. I have a nagging suspicion that Le Pen will do better in the second round of the presidental election than most people expect.

On 2002-04-22 17:22, Kiff '61 wrote:

On 2002-04-22 16:58, Virgil K. Saari wrote:
The Senators McCarthy:Tail-Gunner Jo and Clean Gene; Ralph Nader, Russ Feingold, Ronald Reagan, Baroness Thatcher, Pat Buchanan, Jesse "The Mind" Ventura, Lucius Cornelius Sulla, Gen. Augusto Pinochet, John Randolph of Roanoke, John Taylor of Caroline, John Calhoun, H.M. Margrethe II of Denmark, Lech Walesa, Edmund Burke, the current Bishop of Rome...in no particular order. HTH

Joe McCarthy and Russ Feingold?

Please clarify, Virgil. This I gotta read.

Mr. Joseph McCarthy made many an error [god fathering Robert F. Kennedy's first born, Ms. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (bruited as America's First Female Democrat President by some) for instance] but see The Evil That Men Don't Do in Mr. Samuel Francis' Beautiful Losers. He did not kill nearly as many peasants and their domestic livestock as the rather avian-minded Mr. Lyndon Baines Johnson and Mr. Richard Milhous Nixon did on the edge of Asia. He thought Communists in the government of the U.S. a bad thing and pointed this out to the dismay of the better sort of people who knew them to be "liberals in a hurry" or perhaps even agents of a foreign power [that power being under the benign gaze of Uncle Jo] but people who had gone to the "best" schools after all.


Mr. Russel Feingold believed in campaign finance reform to such a degree that he actually ran a campaign by his principles rather than just recommending them to his equals. He had the sense to think WJC a scoundrel when most of his party was rosy-eyed and noodle spined and dubious of Dubya and the Patriot Act of 2001 which 99 other Senators found the strength of character to vote for in the affirmative.


What unites them and many of the rest on my little list is the discomfit of Cant that passes for thought in the Conventional Wisdom of the Day.


"LBJ cannot be beaten in 1968"-Eugene McCarthy

"Secondhand smoke is a Great Danger of our time."-Margrethe II


"Communism is here to stay"-Lech Walesa


and so on. I fear there are not too many moderates on my list...I can only imagine the introduction, "Senator Jeffords, meet Mr. Sulla; he has his lists to go over and you'll be pleased to know your name turned up." HTH


PS.I would have to add His Catholic Majesty Louis XVI of FRANCE [on topic] who funded America's passage into a Republic at no small cost to himself and his family.

an example of CANT from an Enron rent-boy at the NYT via Freerepublic.com:

A slightly left-of-center candidate runs for president. In a rational world he would win easily. Ah, the smug bigotry of rational and easily. In such a reasoned place why would there be need for an election at all?

On 2002-04-22 21:03, Tristan Jones wrote:


Australia in the 1990's experienced a political fragmentation, support for the major parties nose-diven and new parties have emerged out of nowhere. It seems to be a feature of unravellings, apart from the USA everywhere else in the western world has been major political parties support fall and new parties appear.

There's a reason the U.S.A. didn't get that, IMO. I think it has to do with the fact that America has a presidential republic, while most of the other western nations are parliamentary republics (more or less).

The American system forces various factions to line up in the Big Two parties, creating massive alliances and coalitions. In most parliamentary systems, individual mini-parties can conceivably get a role in government on their own, if the vote fractures sufficiently.

A perennial suggestion of some liberal (American meaning of that word) groups in America is proportional voting. I suspect the practical result would be the fracturing of the parties and even worse gridlock.

On 2002-04-22 21:53, Virgil K. Saari wrote:
an example of CANT from an Enron rent-boy at the NYT via Freerepublic.com:

A slightly left-of-center candidate runs for president. In a rational world he would win easily. Ah, the smug bigotry of rational and easily. In such a reasoned place why would there be need for an election at all?

Ah, yes, the New York Times, also known as the voice of the Democratic Party (or at least of its northeast-corridor element).

FRENCH SECESSION FROM EUROPEAN UNION?

Story from Ananova: http://www.ananova.com/yournews/story/sm_572953.html

Quoted without intent of profit or infringement, etc.

Le Pen says he would guide France out of EU

Jean-Marie Le Pen says he will guide France out of the EU if he is elected president.

He says he is the candidate of the French people and they voted for him to overturn the political system.

He calls his clash against Jacques Chirac a fight between the "candidate of the French people and the candidate of the system".

He told reporters: "We are witnessing the end of a cycle that spurned a decadent and corrupt system."

Mr Le Pen added: "The French think they are electing a president, but they are wrong, they are electing a kind of governor" who answers to Brussels.

He then pledged to bring a halt to the immigration into France. "This constant foreign immigration will - if a barrier is not erected - eventually submerge our country," he said.

Mr Le Pen believes his success in qualifying for the May 5 run-off against incumbent President Jacques Chirac shows French voters want radical change.

As thousands of protesters took to the streets across France to denounce his success, Le Pen, flanked by eight bodyguards, appealed for calm. "Change must be carried out peacefully," he said.

Le Pen accused his opponents of "fuelling civil disorder" by appealing to the people to rally against him.

But when asked if he had softened his normally fiery tone to appeal to a broader electorate, Le Pen said: "I held myself back during the campaign, but now I am really looking forward" to confronting Chirac. "I will not disappoint you," he added.

Story filed: 23:31 Monday 22nd April 2002

One thing is for certain, this guy has stirred things up on all sides in France!

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: HopefulCynic68 on 2002-04-22 22:09 ]</font>

On 2002-04-22 21:56, HopefulCynic68 wrote:

A perennial suggestion of some liberal (American meaning of that word) groups in America is proportional voting. I suspect the practical result would be the fracturing of the parties and even worse gridlock.

Yes but there probably is a downside to this [one doesn't come readily to mind] even if we do get worse gridlock than even the Framers intended.

On 2002-04-22 21:28, Virgil K. Saari wrote:
Mr. Joseph McCarthy made many an error [god fathering Robert F. Kennedy's first born, Ms. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (bruited as America's First Female Democrat President by some) for instance] but see The Evil That Men Don't Do in Mr. Samuel Francis' Beautiful Losers. He did not kill nearly as many peasants and their domestic livestock as the rather avian-minded Mr. Lyndon Baines Johnson and Mr. Richard Milhous Nixon did on the edge of Asia. He thought Communists in the government of the U.S. a bad thing and pointed this out to the dismay of the better sort of people who knew them to be "liberals in a hurry" or perhaps even agents of a foreign power [that power being under the benign gaze of Uncle Jo] but people who had gone to the "best" schools after all.

I will have to check this out. I was always brought up to believe that Joe McCarthy was a huge embarrassment to the great state of Wisconsin. But I'm open to another opinion here. :smile:

Mr. Russel Feingold believed in campaign finance reform to such a degree that he actually ran a campaign by his principles rather than just recommending them to his equals. He had the sense to think WJC a scoundrel when most of his party was rosy-eyed and noodle spined and dubious of Dubya and the Patriot Act of 2001 which 99 other Senators found the strength of character to vote for in the affirmative.

Yes, that is what I've always liked about Russ is that he practices what he preaches. It almost cost him his seat in 1998. I've already donated to his re-election campaign and will continue to support him.

Thanks for your explanation. It makes more sense to me now.

_________________
"Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure....You are a child of God. Your playing small does not serve the world." -- Nelson Mandela

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Kiff '61 on 2002-04-23 07:02 ]</font>

Wow, this Le Pen vote has definitely sent shockwaves across the world, and many people in Europe are treating this as an emergency. I can give them credit for refusing to repeat history.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/france/sto...689125,00.html

http://news.independent.co.uk/europe...p?story=287908

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/wor...00/1944575.stm