5/12/2005 - I've renamed this thread to "The Singularity". This name
is less confusing.

The old name was: Eschatology - The End of the Human Race by 2100?

This thread was begun on May 16, 2003, almost two years ago, to
discuss the possibility that computers would become so intelligent
that the human race would disappear by 2100.

We discussed this vigorously, and many people contributed to the
discussion. My own thinking evolved to my own conclusion that "The
Singularity" will take place around 2030.

The Singularity is the point in time where autonomous, self-contained
computer entities are not only more intelligent than humans, but also
able to research new versions of themselves, and manufacture improved
versions of themselves.

Work on intelligent, autonomous robots is going on around the world.
IBM will have a supercomputer with more brainpower than a human brain
by 2008. The Department of Defense has announced the Future Combat
Sytems project, which will deploy intelligent, autonomous robot
soldiers on the battlefield, able to make "shoot to kill" decisions on
their own, by 2014. And that's not 900 years away. It's only 9 years
away.

When the movie I, Robot came out last summer, I put an article
about the subject on my web site.
http://www.generationaldynamics.com/....i.robot040709

I thought that the movie might trigger a public debate about the
Singularity, but I was surprised that it generated nothing at all,
except for an occasional article.

On the other hand, during casual conversations, I've asked a number
of people if they've seen the movie and what they think of it. I've
been surprised that many people seem to be quite aware of the fact
that robots / computers are going to be taking over the world in the
not too distant future, but they aren't especially concerned about
it. My own son Jason, who's a junior majoring in biotechnology at
Georgia Institute of Technology, is actually looking forward to
designing the super-intelligent robots.

So I guess I've come to the conclusion that the Singularity isn't
really going to have much of an effect until it finally occurs. In
the meantime, in the late 2010s and the 2020s, there'll be a lot of
neat computerized servants that will be making everyone's life easier
(the people who are left after the war), and everyone can just enjoy
that until the end comes.

And if I have any remaining doubts about 2030 as the date of The
Singularity, my doubts are only that the 2030 date is too late. By
the early to mid 2020s, there will be millions of computerized robot
soldiers running around, manufactured in America, China, India,
Russia, the EU, and other countries as well. In that kind of
"primordal soup," The Singularity is not too far off.

As that old song goes, "Enjoy yourself, it's later than you think!"

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com

--------

Old first message:

The subject of eschatology (the religious study of the "last days")
is an interesting sidelight to the Fourth Turning theory, because of
the way it affects politics, especially the surprising political
alliances between the Christian right and the Jewish left over their
common desire for a strong defense of Israel. This alliance is
motivated, at least partially, by the belief among some
fundamentalist Christians that the next Fourth Turning war will
coincide with "the second coming" of Christ in Jerusalem.

I don't see the world coming to an end in the next war, any more than
it came to an end in World War II, but interestingly, I think I do
know how the human race is going to come to an end -- within the next
100 years or so.

Computers are becoming increasingly intelligent, and by 2030 or so,
it will be evident to everybody that computers will soon be more
intelligent than human beings. This will give rise to a public
debate over "who will inherit the earth -- humans or computers?"

By 2050 or 2060, computers will already be more intelligent than
humans, and will be able to replicate themselves. They'll be a new
species as much more advanced over humans as humans are advanced over
monkeys.

But it won't stop there. By 2100, the new computers will be as much
more advanced over the 2050 computers as the 2050 computers are over
humans.

Maybe these computers will decide to keep a few humans around in zoos
or something, or maybe they'll keep us around as pets the way we keep
dogs and cats, but those scenarios are problematical. The most
likely scenario is that the human race will end by 2100.

This is an issue that today's children will be directly facing in
their lifetimes. They and their own children will be facing
potential extinction in this way.

What's the probability that all this will happen? The fact that
computers will soon be much more intelligent than humans is almost
100% certain. What will happen after that is open to speculation.

Finally, a word about the "Matrix" movies. These movies portray a
human victory over a future of intelligent computers, but there's an
important point that the movies omit. Even if the humans beat back
the computers in some future war, it'll be an empty victory. A
decade later there'll be new generation of computers so much more
intelligent than the last generation that we won't stand a chance
against them.

John

5/12/2005 - I've renamed this thread to "The Singularity". This name
is less confusing.

The old name was: Eschatology - The End of the Human Race by 2100?

This thread was begun on May 16, 2003, almost two years ago, to
discuss the possibility that computers would become so intelligent
that the human race would disappear by 2100.

We discussed this vigorously, and many people contributed to the
discussion. My own thinking evolved to my own conclusion that "The
Singularity" will take place around 2030.

The Singularity is the point in time where autonomous, self-contained
computer entities are not only more intelligent than humans, but also
able to research new versions of themselves, and manufacture improved
versions of themselves.

Work on intelligent, autonomous robots is going on around the world.
IBM will have a supercomputer with more brainpower than a human brain
by 2008. The Department of Defense has announced the Future Combat
Sytems project, which will deploy intelligent, autonomous robot
soldiers on the battlefield, able to make "shoot to kill" decisions on
their own, by 2014. And that's not 900 years away. It's only 9 years
away.

When the movie I, Robot came out last summer, I put an article
about the subject on my web site.
http://www.generationaldynamics.com/....i.robot040709

I thought that the movie might trigger a public debate about the
Singularity, but I was surprised that it generated nothing at all,
except for an occasional article.

On the other hand, during casual conversations, I've asked a number
of people if they've seen the movie and what they think of it. I've
been surprised that many people seem to be quite aware of the fact
that robots / computers are going to be taking over the world in the
not too distant future, but they aren't especially concerned about
it. My own son Jason, who's a junior majoring in biotechnology at
Georgia Institute of Technology, is actually looking forward to
designing the super-intelligent robots.

So I guess I've come to the conclusion that the Singularity isn't
really going to have much of an effect until it finally occurs. In
the meantime, in the late 2010s and the 2020s, there'll be a lot of
neat computerized servants that will be making everyone's life easier
(the people who are left after the war), and everyone can just enjoy
that until the end comes.

And if I have any remaining doubts about 2030 as the date of The
Singularity, my doubts are only that the 2030 date is too late. By
the early to mid 2020s, there will be millions of computerized robot
soldiers running around, manufactured in America, China, India,
Russia, the EU, and other countries as well. In that kind of
"primordal soup," The Singularity is not too far off.

As that old song goes, "Enjoy yourself, it's later than you think!"

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com

--------

Old first message:

The subject of eschatology (the religious study of the "last days")
is an interesting sidelight to the Fourth Turning theory, because of
the way it affects politics, especially the surprising political
alliances between the Christian right and the Jewish left over their
common desire for a strong defense of Israel. This alliance is
motivated, at least partially, by the belief among some
fundamentalist Christians that the next Fourth Turning war will
coincide with "the second coming" of Christ in Jerusalem.

I don't see the world coming to an end in the next war, any more than
it came to an end in World War II, but interestingly, I think I do
know how the human race is going to come to an end -- within the next
100 years or so.

Computers are becoming increasingly intelligent, and by 2030 or so,
it will be evident to everybody that computers will soon be more
intelligent than human beings. This will give rise to a public
debate over "who will inherit the earth -- humans or computers?"

By 2050 or 2060, computers will already be more intelligent than
humans, and will be able to replicate themselves. They'll be a new
species as much more advanced over humans as humans are advanced over
monkeys.

But it won't stop there. By 2100, the new computers will be as much
more advanced over the 2050 computers as the 2050 computers are over
humans.

Maybe these computers will decide to keep a few humans around in zoos
or something, or maybe they'll keep us around as pets the way we keep
dogs and cats, but those scenarios are problematical. The most
likely scenario is that the human race will end by 2100.

This is an issue that today's children will be directly facing in
their lifetimes. They and their own children will be facing
potential extinction in this way.

What's the probability that all this will happen? The fact that
computers will soon be much more intelligent than humans is almost
100% certain. What will happen after that is open to speculation.

Finally, a word about the "Matrix" movies. These movies portray a
human victory over a future of intelligent computers, but there's an
important point that the movies omit. Even if the humans beat back
the computers in some future war, it'll be an empty victory. A
decade later there'll be new generation of computers so much more
intelligent than the last generation that we won't stand a chance
against them.

John

5/12/2005 - I've renamed this thread to "The Singularity". This name
is less confusing.

The old name was: Eschatology - The End of the Human Race by 2100?

This thread was begun on May 16, 2003, almost two years ago, to
discuss the possibility that computers would become so intelligent
that the human race would disappear by 2100.

We discussed this vigorously, and many people contributed to the
discussion. My own thinking evolved to my own conclusion that "The
Singularity" will take place around 2030.

The Singularity is the point in time where autonomous, self-contained
computer entities are not only more intelligent than humans, but also
able to research new versions of themselves, and manufacture improved
versions of themselves.

Work on intelligent, autonomous robots is going on around the world.
IBM will have a supercomputer with more brainpower than a human brain
by 2008. The Department of Defense has announced the Future Combat
Sytems project, which will deploy intelligent, autonomous robot
soldiers on the battlefield, able to make "shoot to kill" decisions on
their own, by 2014. And that's not 900 years away. It's only 9 years
away.

When the movie I, Robot came out last summer, I put an article
about the subject on my web site.
http://www.generationaldynamics.com/....i.robot040709

I thought that the movie might trigger a public debate about the
Singularity, but I was surprised that it generated nothing at all,
except for an occasional article.

On the other hand, during casual conversations, I've asked a number
of people if they've seen the movie and what they think of it. I've
been surprised that many people seem to be quite aware of the fact
that robots / computers are going to be taking over the world in the
not too distant future, but they aren't especially concerned about
it. My own son Jason, who's a junior majoring in biotechnology at
Georgia Institute of Technology, is actually looking forward to
designing the super-intelligent robots.

So I guess I've come to the conclusion that the Singularity isn't
really going to have much of an effect until it finally occurs. In
the meantime, in the late 2010s and the 2020s, there'll be a lot of
neat computerized servants that will be making everyone's life easier
(the people who are left after the war), and everyone can just enjoy
that until the end comes.

And if I have any remaining doubts about 2030 as the date of The
Singularity, my doubts are only that the 2030 date is too late. By
the early to mid 2020s, there will be millions of computerized robot
soldiers running around, manufactured in America, China, India,
Russia, the EU, and other countries as well. In that kind of
"primordal soup," The Singularity is not too far off.

As that old song goes, "Enjoy yourself, it's later than you think!"

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com

--------

Old first message:

The subject of eschatology (the religious study of the "last days")
is an interesting sidelight to the Fourth Turning theory, because of
the way it affects politics, especially the surprising political
alliances between the Christian right and the Jewish left over their
common desire for a strong defense of Israel. This alliance is
motivated, at least partially, by the belief among some
fundamentalist Christians that the next Fourth Turning war will
coincide with "the second coming" of Christ in Jerusalem.

I don't see the world coming to an end in the next war, any more than
it came to an end in World War II, but interestingly, I think I do
know how the human race is going to come to an end -- within the next
100 years or so.

Computers are becoming increasingly intelligent, and by 2030 or so,
it will be evident to everybody that computers will soon be more
intelligent than human beings. This will give rise to a public
debate over "who will inherit the earth -- humans or computers?"

By 2050 or 2060, computers will already be more intelligent than
humans, and will be able to replicate themselves. They'll be a new
species as much more advanced over humans as humans are advanced over
monkeys.

But it won't stop there. By 2100, the new computers will be as much
more advanced over the 2050 computers as the 2050 computers are over
humans.

Maybe these computers will decide to keep a few humans around in zoos
or something, or maybe they'll keep us around as pets the way we keep
dogs and cats, but those scenarios are problematical. The most
likely scenario is that the human race will end by 2100.

This is an issue that today's children will be directly facing in
their lifetimes. They and their own children will be facing
potential extinction in this way.

What's the probability that all this will happen? The fact that
computers will soon be much more intelligent than humans is almost
100% certain. What will happen after that is open to speculation.

Finally, a word about the "Matrix" movies. These movies portray a
human victory over a future of intelligent computers, but there's an
important point that the movies omit. Even if the humans beat back
the computers in some future war, it'll be an empty victory. A
decade later there'll be new generation of computers so much more
intelligent than the last generation that we won't stand a chance
against them.

John

5/12/2005 - I've renamed this thread to "The Singularity". This name
is less confusing.

The old name was: Eschatology - The End of the Human Race by 2100?

This thread was begun on May 16, 2003, almost two years ago, to
discuss the possibility that computers would become so intelligent
that the human race would disappear by 2100.

We discussed this vigorously, and many people contributed to the
discussion. My own thinking evolved to my own conclusion that "The
Singularity" will take place around 2030.

The Singularity is the point in time where autonomous, self-contained
computer entities are not only more intelligent than humans, but also
able to research new versions of themselves, and manufacture improved
versions of themselves.

Work on intelligent, autonomous robots is going on around the world.
IBM will have a supercomputer with more brainpower than a human brain
by 2008. The Department of Defense has announced the Future Combat
Sytems project, which will deploy intelligent, autonomous robot
soldiers on the battlefield, able to make "shoot to kill" decisions on
their own, by 2014. And that's not 900 years away. It's only 9 years
away.

When the movie I, Robot came out last summer, I put an article
about the subject on my web site.
http://www.generationaldynamics.com/....i.robot040709

I thought that the movie might trigger a public debate about the
Singularity, but I was surprised that it generated nothing at all,
except for an occasional article.

On the other hand, during casual conversations, I've asked a number
of people if they've seen the movie and what they think of it. I've
been surprised that many people seem to be quite aware of the fact
that robots / computers are going to be taking over the world in the
not too distant future, but they aren't especially concerned about
it. My own son Jason, who's a junior majoring in biotechnology at
Georgia Institute of Technology, is actually looking forward to
designing the super-intelligent robots.

So I guess I've come to the conclusion that the Singularity isn't
really going to have much of an effect until it finally occurs. In
the meantime, in the late 2010s and the 2020s, there'll be a lot of
neat computerized servants that will be making everyone's life easier
(the people who are left after the war), and everyone can just enjoy
that until the end comes.

And if I have any remaining doubts about 2030 as the date of The
Singularity, my doubts are only that the 2030 date is too late. By
the early to mid 2020s, there will be millions of computerized robot
soldiers running around, manufactured in America, China, India,
Russia, the EU, and other countries as well. In that kind of
"primordal soup," The Singularity is not too far off.

As that old song goes, "Enjoy yourself, it's later than you think!"

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com

--------

Old first message:

The subject of eschatology (the religious study of the "last days")
is an interesting sidelight to the Fourth Turning theory, because of
the way it affects politics, especially the surprising political
alliances between the Christian right and the Jewish left over their
common desire for a strong defense of Israel. This alliance is
motivated, at least partially, by the belief among some
fundamentalist Christians that the next Fourth Turning war will
coincide with "the second coming" of Christ in Jerusalem.

I don't see the world coming to an end in the next war, any more than
it came to an end in World War II, but interestingly, I think I do
know how the human race is going to come to an end -- within the next
100 years or so.

Computers are becoming increasingly intelligent, and by 2030 or so,
it will be evident to everybody that computers will soon be more
intelligent than human beings. This will give rise to a public
debate over "who will inherit the earth -- humans or computers?"

By 2050 or 2060, computers will already be more intelligent than
humans, and will be able to replicate themselves. They'll be a new
species as much more advanced over humans as humans are advanced over
monkeys.

But it won't stop there. By 2100, the new computers will be as much
more advanced over the 2050 computers as the 2050 computers are over
humans.

Maybe these computers will decide to keep a few humans around in zoos
or something, or maybe they'll keep us around as pets the way we keep
dogs and cats, but those scenarios are problematical. The most
likely scenario is that the human race will end by 2100.

This is an issue that today's children will be directly facing in
their lifetimes. They and their own children will be facing
potential extinction in this way.

What's the probability that all this will happen? The fact that
computers will soon be much more intelligent than humans is almost
100% certain. What will happen after that is open to speculation.

Finally, a word about the "Matrix" movies. These movies portray a
human victory over a future of intelligent computers, but there's an
important point that the movies omit. Even if the humans beat back
the computers in some future war, it'll be an empty victory. A
decade later there'll be new generation of computers so much more
intelligent than the last generation that we won't stand a chance
against them.

John

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

The subject of eschatology (the religious study of the "last days")
is an interesting sidelight to the Fourth Turning theory, because of
the way it affects politics, especially the surprising political
alliances between the Christian right and the Jewish left over their
common desire for a strong defense of Israel. This alliance is
motivated, at least partially, by the belief among some
fundamentalist Christians that the next Fourth Turning war will
coincide with "the second coming" of Christ in Jerusalem.

I don't see the world coming to an end in the next war, any more than
it came to an end in World War II, but interestingly, I think I do
know how the human race is going to come to an end -- within the next
100 years or so.

Computers are becoming increasingly intelligent, and by 2030 or so,
it will be evident to everybody that computers will soon be more
intelligent than human beings. This will give rise to a public
debate over "who will inherit the earth -- humans or computers?"

By 2050 or 2060, computers will already be more intelligent than
humans, and will be able to replicate themselves. They'll be a new
species as much more advanced over humans as humans are advanced over
monkeys.

But it won't stop there. By 2100, the new computers will be as much
more advanced over the 2050 computers as the 2050 computers are over
humans.

Maybe these computers will decide to keep a few humans around in zoos
or something, or maybe they'll keep us around as pets the way we keep
dogs and cats, but those scenarios are problematical. The most
likely scenario is that the human race will end by 2100.

This is an issue that today's children will be directly facing in
their lifetimes. They and their own children will be facing
potential extinction in this way.

What's the probability that all this will happen? The fact that
computers will soon be much more intelligent than humans is almost
100% certain. What will happen after that is open to speculation.

Finally, a word about the "Matrix" movies. These movies portray a
human victory over a future of intelligent computers, but there's an
important point that the movies omit. Even if the humans beat back
the computers in some future war, it'll be an empty victory. A
decade later there'll be new generation of computers so much more
intelligent than the last generation that we won't stand a chance
against them.

John

So the question becomes, in the aftermath of the Crisis of 2100, will we become the post-apacalyptic humans of the Terminator or Matrix movies? Or will we beat the computers at their own game, and become Star Trek's Borg (my vote for the most frightening sci-fi adversary of all time)? Are these the only two choices we have?

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

The subject of eschatology (the religious study of the "last days")
is an interesting sidelight to the Fourth Turning theory, because of
the way it affects politics, especially the surprising political
alliances between the Christian right and the Jewish left over their
common desire for a strong defense of Israel. This alliance is
motivated, at least partially, by the belief among some
fundamentalist Christians that the next Fourth Turning war will
coincide with "the second coming" of Christ in Jerusalem.

I don't see the world coming to an end in the next war, any more than
it came to an end in World War II, but interestingly, I think I do
know how the human race is going to come to an end -- within the next
100 years or so.

Computers are becoming increasingly intelligent, and by 2030 or so,
it will be evident to everybody that computers will soon be more
intelligent than human beings. This will give rise to a public
debate over "who will inherit the earth -- humans or computers?"

By 2050 or 2060, computers will already be more intelligent than
humans, and will be able to replicate themselves. They'll be a new
species as much more advanced over humans as humans are advanced over
monkeys.

But it won't stop there. By 2100, the new computers will be as much
more advanced over the 2050 computers as the 2050 computers are over
humans.

Maybe these computers will decide to keep a few humans around in zoos
or something, or maybe they'll keep us around as pets the way we keep
dogs and cats, but those scenarios are problematical. The most
likely scenario is that the human race will end by 2100.

This is an issue that today's children will be directly facing in
their lifetimes. They and their own children will be facing
potential extinction in this way.

What's the probability that all this will happen? The fact that
computers will soon be much more intelligent than humans is almost
100% certain. What will happen after that is open to speculation.

Finally, a word about the "Matrix" movies. These movies portray a
human victory over a future of intelligent computers, but there's an
important point that the movies omit. Even if the humans beat back
the computers in some future war, it'll be an empty victory. A
decade later there'll be new generation of computers so much more
intelligent than the last generation that we won't stand a chance
against them.

John

So the question becomes, in the aftermath of the Crisis of 2100, will we become the post-apacalyptic humans of the Terminator or Matrix movies? Or will we beat the computers at their own game, and become Star Trek's Borg (my vote for the most frightening sci-fi adversary of all time)? Are these the only two choices we have?

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

The subject of eschatology (the religious study of the "last days")
is an interesting sidelight to the Fourth Turning theory, because of
the way it affects politics, especially the surprising political
alliances between the Christian right and the Jewish left over their
common desire for a strong defense of Israel. This alliance is
motivated, at least partially, by the belief among some
fundamentalist Christians that the next Fourth Turning war will
coincide with "the second coming" of Christ in Jerusalem.

I don't see the world coming to an end in the next war, any more than
it came to an end in World War II, but interestingly, I think I do
know how the human race is going to come to an end -- within the next
100 years or so.

Computers are becoming increasingly intelligent, and by 2030 or so,
it will be evident to everybody that computers will soon be more
intelligent than human beings. This will give rise to a public
debate over "who will inherit the earth -- humans or computers?"

By 2050 or 2060, computers will already be more intelligent than
humans, and will be able to replicate themselves. They'll be a new
species as much more advanced over humans as humans are advanced over
monkeys.

But it won't stop there. By 2100, the new computers will be as much
more advanced over the 2050 computers as the 2050 computers are over
humans.

Maybe these computers will decide to keep a few humans around in zoos
or something, or maybe they'll keep us around as pets the way we keep
dogs and cats, but those scenarios are problematical. The most
likely scenario is that the human race will end by 2100.

This is an issue that today's children will be directly facing in
their lifetimes. They and their own children will be facing
potential extinction in this way.

What's the probability that all this will happen? The fact that
computers will soon be much more intelligent than humans is almost
100% certain. What will happen after that is open to speculation.

Finally, a word about the "Matrix" movies. These movies portray a
human victory over a future of intelligent computers, but there's an
important point that the movies omit. Even if the humans beat back
the computers in some future war, it'll be an empty victory. A
decade later there'll be new generation of computers so much more
intelligent than the last generation that we won't stand a chance
against them.

John

So the question becomes, in the aftermath of the Crisis of 2100, will we become the post-apacalyptic humans of the Terminator or Matrix movies? Or will we beat the computers at their own game, and become Star Trek's Borg (my vote for the most frightening sci-fi adversary of all time)? Are these the only two choices we have?

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

The subject of eschatology (the religious study of the "last days")
is an interesting sidelight to the Fourth Turning theory, because of
the way it affects politics, especially the surprising political
alliances between the Christian right and the Jewish left over their
common desire for a strong defense of Israel. This alliance is
motivated, at least partially, by the belief among some
fundamentalist Christians that the next Fourth Turning war will
coincide with "the second coming" of Christ in Jerusalem.

I don't see the world coming to an end in the next war, any more than
it came to an end in World War II, but interestingly, I think I do
know how the human race is going to come to an end -- within the next
100 years or so.

Computers are becoming increasingly intelligent, and by 2030 or so,
it will be evident to everybody that computers will soon be more
intelligent than human beings. This will give rise to a public
debate over "who will inherit the earth -- humans or computers?"

By 2050 or 2060, computers will already be more intelligent than
humans, and will be able to replicate themselves. They'll be a new
species as much more advanced over humans as humans are advanced over
monkeys.

But it won't stop there. By 2100, the new computers will be as much
more advanced over the 2050 computers as the 2050 computers are over
humans.

Maybe these computers will decide to keep a few humans around in zoos
or something, or maybe they'll keep us around as pets the way we keep
dogs and cats, but those scenarios are problematical. The most
likely scenario is that the human race will end by 2100.

This is an issue that today's children will be directly facing in
their lifetimes. They and their own children will be facing
potential extinction in this way.

What's the probability that all this will happen? The fact that
computers will soon be much more intelligent than humans is almost
100% certain. What will happen after that is open to speculation.

Finally, a word about the "Matrix" movies. These movies portray a
human victory over a future of intelligent computers, but there's an
important point that the movies omit. Even if the humans beat back
the computers in some future war, it'll be an empty victory. A
decade later there'll be new generation of computers so much more
intelligent than the last generation that we won't stand a chance
against them.

John

So the question becomes, in the aftermath of the Crisis of 2100, will we become the post-apacalyptic humans of the Terminator or Matrix movies? Or will we beat the computers at their own game, and become Star Trek's Borg (my vote for the most frightening sci-fi adversary of all time)? Are these the only two choices we have?

Dear Kevin,

Originally Posted by Kevin Parker '59

> So the question becomes, in the aftermath of the Crisis of 2100,
> will we become the post-apacalyptic humans of the Terminator or
> Matrix movies? Or will we beat the computers at their own game,
> and become Star Trek's Borg (my vote for the most frightening
> sci-fi adversary of all time)? Are these the only two choices we
> have?

Well, every new technology quickly turns into a weapon of war, so by
2020 or so, I would expect to see the first killing computers used in
a war. Actually, we sort of have those today in the unmanned
predator planes, but those still require human control. But starting
with the wars of the 2020s, intelligent computers will undoubtedly
start killing people on their own.

Here's a philosophical question: If a computer kills a person, is
the computer guilty of murder, or is the computer's programmer guilty
of murder? What if the computer is more intelligent than humans, and
decides on its own to kill somebody?

Anyway, use of computers in wars should increase over the decades,
and surely there'll be a war or two where one country's computers
fight against another country's computers.

Imagine this: China decides to declare war on the US, and build
millions of amphibious killing computers. Each computer then jumps
into the Pacific Ocean and propels itself to our Pacific shore,
climbs on land and starts killing people -- except, of course, we'll
have our intelligent computers there to fight them off.

But those are wars where computers are killing people of one country
on behalf of another country. The really bad time comes when the
computers make their own minds just to kill all the humans.

John

Dear Kevin,

Originally Posted by Kevin Parker '59

> So the question becomes, in the aftermath of the Crisis of 2100,
> will we become the post-apacalyptic humans of the Terminator or
> Matrix movies? Or will we beat the computers at their own game,
> and become Star Trek's Borg (my vote for the most frightening
> sci-fi adversary of all time)? Are these the only two choices we
> have?

Well, every new technology quickly turns into a weapon of war, so by
2020 or so, I would expect to see the first killing computers used in
a war. Actually, we sort of have those today in the unmanned
predator planes, but those still require human control. But starting
with the wars of the 2020s, intelligent computers will undoubtedly
start killing people on their own.

Here's a philosophical question: If a computer kills a person, is
the computer guilty of murder, or is the computer's programmer guilty
of murder? What if the computer is more intelligent than humans, and
decides on its own to kill somebody?

Anyway, use of computers in wars should increase over the decades,
and surely there'll be a war or two where one country's computers
fight against another country's computers.

Imagine this: China decides to declare war on the US, and build
millions of amphibious killing computers. Each computer then jumps
into the Pacific Ocean and propels itself to our Pacific shore,
climbs on land and starts killing people -- except, of course, we'll
have our intelligent computers there to fight them off.

But those are wars where computers are killing people of one country
on behalf of another country. The really bad time comes when the
computers make their own minds just to kill all the humans.

John

Dear Kevin,

Originally Posted by Kevin Parker '59

> So the question becomes, in the aftermath of the Crisis of 2100,
> will we become the post-apacalyptic humans of the Terminator or
> Matrix movies? Or will we beat the computers at their own game,
> and become Star Trek's Borg (my vote for the most frightening
> sci-fi adversary of all time)? Are these the only two choices we
> have?

Well, every new technology quickly turns into a weapon of war, so by
2020 or so, I would expect to see the first killing computers used in
a war. Actually, we sort of have those today in the unmanned
predator planes, but those still require human control. But starting
with the wars of the 2020s, intelligent computers will undoubtedly
start killing people on their own.

Here's a philosophical question: If a computer kills a person, is
the computer guilty of murder, or is the computer's programmer guilty
of murder? What if the computer is more intelligent than humans, and
decides on its own to kill somebody?

Anyway, use of computers in wars should increase over the decades,
and surely there'll be a war or two where one country's computers
fight against another country's computers.

Imagine this: China decides to declare war on the US, and build
millions of amphibious killing computers. Each computer then jumps
into the Pacific Ocean and propels itself to our Pacific shore,
climbs on land and starts killing people -- except, of course, we'll
have our intelligent computers there to fight them off.

But those are wars where computers are killing people of one country
on behalf of another country. The really bad time comes when the
computers make their own minds just to kill all the humans.

John

Dear Kevin,

Originally Posted by Kevin Parker '59

> So the question becomes, in the aftermath of the Crisis of 2100,
> will we become the post-apacalyptic humans of the Terminator or
> Matrix movies? Or will we beat the computers at their own game,
> and become Star Trek's Borg (my vote for the most frightening
> sci-fi adversary of all time)? Are these the only two choices we
> have?

Well, every new technology quickly turns into a weapon of war, so by
2020 or so, I would expect to see the first killing computers used in
a war. Actually, we sort of have those today in the unmanned
predator planes, but those still require human control. But starting
with the wars of the 2020s, intelligent computers will undoubtedly
start killing people on their own.

Here's a philosophical question: If a computer kills a person, is
the computer guilty of murder, or is the computer's programmer guilty
of murder? What if the computer is more intelligent than humans, and
decides on its own to kill somebody?

Anyway, use of computers in wars should increase over the decades,
and surely there'll be a war or two where one country's computers
fight against another country's computers.

Imagine this: China decides to declare war on the US, and build
millions of amphibious killing computers. Each computer then jumps
into the Pacific Ocean and propels itself to our Pacific shore,
climbs on land and starts killing people -- except, of course, we'll
have our intelligent computers there to fight them off.

But those are wars where computers are killing people of one country
on behalf of another country. The really bad time comes when the
computers make their own minds just to kill all the humans.

John

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

The subject of eschatology (the religious study of the "last days")
is an interesting sidelight to the Fourth Turning theory . . . the belief among some fundamentalist Christians that the next Fourth Turning war will coincide with "the second coming" of Christ in Jerusalem.

I don't see the world coming to an end in the next war, any more than
it came to an end in World War II, but interestingly, I think I do
know how the human race is going to come to an end -- within the next
100 years or so.

Computers are becoming increasingly intelligent, and by 2030 or so,
it will be evident to everybody that computers will soon be more
intelligent than human beings. This will give rise to a public
debate over "who will inherit the earth -- humans or computers?"

John

My sense has been that the world won't be ready for events of Revelation during this next Fourth Turning, but that it's a good chance it will be by the next one, which is due around 2100, I believe. I think it is interesting to note that while Christ said no man will no the day or hour, he did indicate that we would know the season. And, understanding the Turnings concept, it appears that we can definately recognize what season we are in. It would suggest that the end times will coincide with some future Fourth Turning. But like I said, I don't think the corruption will be far enough along by this Fourth Turning. Especially if this Fourth Turning ends bad, then it would be easy to see us racing toward the End Times after that. There's the concept of evil gradually ripening, then starting to go bad, then starting to rot. I think that in the 20th century, we saw evil ripening. In the 21st century, we might witness things really starting to rot, I'm afriad.

I should add, that I do hold out the possibility that our current understanding of Revelation/End Times prophecy might not be so accurate. We're sure about what it looks like now, but only time will tell. If man is still around in 2150 and doing fine, we might start to tilt back to amillenialism or post-millenialism or something.

As for the computers becoming intelligent and taking over the world. Two thoughts on that. If you haven't read the book The Age of Spiritual Machines, I would highly recommend it. Author is Kurtzweil, I believe. It's all about the tremendous advancement of machine intelligence during the next 100 years, and what it will mean for humans. The author presents a facinating, complex, and disturbing vision. But I think it might be accurate. If machines develop human-level intelligence, then they probably won't all agree on genecide for the humans. Some may want to peacefully co-exist; some might even love us.

Second, there's an article out now, I think in Discover magazine, or one of those types of magazines, where you have two guys discussing the two possible directions that the future might take. One argues that advancement is coming so rapidly now, that by 2020 we'll be due for the "singularity," the point at which everything is changing so rapidly that the human race will tranform into something incomprehensible to us now. The other guy suggests that advancement doesn't spiral upward forever. If it did, then we would eventually be having such dramatic changes in such brief periods of time, that it would become totally imperceptible to us. He presents evidence for how the human race's progress actually goes in cycles, and how the whole universe goes in one gigantic cycle, the absolute peak of which, we are at now. He suggests that after continuing advancement through about 2020, we'll enter a long, long, long period of gradual decline, with fewer, less frequent advances, until we move back into gradually more primitive states.

Interesting stuff!

Dear Caspian,

Originally Posted by Caspian

> As for the computers becoming intelligent and taking over the
> world. Two thoughts on that. If you haven't read the book The Age
> of Spiritual Machines, I would highly recommend it. Author is
> Kurtzweil, I believe. It's all about the tremendous advancement of
> machine intelligence during the next 100 years, and what it will
> mean for humans. The author presents a facinating, complex, and
> disturbing vision. But I think it might be accurate.

I'm quite familiar with Ray Kurzweil's views. He definitely foresees
what we're talking about here -- the fact that computers will be much
more intelligent than humans within a few decades, and really won't
need us anymore.

I get the feeling that Kurzweil tries very hard -- too hard -- to put
an optimistic gloss on what he sees is the inevitable bad news. He's
formulated this fanciful scenario for how we're all going to survive
when this happens.

What he describes will definitely be technologically possible, but I
get the feeling that it fails the Rube Goldberg test by being too
much trouble to be worth it: When computers the size of an ordinary
molecule have been developed, inject a few million of them into
someone's body. They'll take a "fantastic voyage" through the
person's body, into his brain. They'll map out his particular
brain's "software," essentially "reverse engineering" his human
brain. Then transfer all the collected data into a computer, and
suddenly the computer has the same knowledge, feelings, anxieties,
intelligence and self-awareness that the original human had. (The
religious question will be whether the person's "soul" automatically
gets transferred as well.)

So once that's done, human beings will still exist, our minds will
still exist, but only our bodies will change -- into computer-bodies.
Maybe we'll look something like Arnold Schwartzenegger. Oh, and we'll
be immortal.

Well, maybe it'll happen, since it'll certainly be technologically
possible. But I'd have to be convinced that we'd really want to live
that way. After all, we all have to die someday, one way or another,
don't we? Even if we can be immortal in the form of a computer, do
we want to be?

> If machines develop human-level intelligence, then they probably
> won't all agree on genecide for the humans. Some may want to
> peacefully co-exist; some might even love us.

We can imagine a world 200 years from now where computers don't mind
having us around, the way we don't mind having cats and dogs and
other animals around. But we have to get to that point.

In the meantime, we'll go through a "golden age," where computers do
all the work for us and we can just relax. But we'll also go through
dozens of wars where computers play an increasingly important role,
and intelligent computers are empowered to kill as many people
("enemy people") as they can. And we'll also go through a transition
period where the computers themselves are trying to decide whether
they even want to bother with us. So anything can happen.

> He suggests that after continuing advancement through about 2020,
> we'll enter a long, long, long period of gradual decline, with
> fewer, less frequent advances, until we move back into gradually
> more primitive states.

I have no idea where people come up with silly stuff like this. This
has never happened. Period. It will never happen. Period.

John

I don't recognize your name, but, lately that doesn't mean much.

You point out that there are people who see the next 4T as the "last day" as described by The Book of Revelation.

Then you go on to describe a scenario that has as much to do with the book
of Revelation as Lightening does to a lightening bug.

Where dost thou get thy Holy revelations? Art thou a modern day Prophet
more 'beloved' than John the Beloved, than Daniel, than Joel?

Did you receive divine story telling from the Angel "V---GER"
Or perhaps is was the Oracle "HAL".

On the other hand, if we can design computers of intelligence we can
have Stepford after all ..... 8)

Dear Max,

Originally Posted by Max

> I don't recognize your name, but, lately that doesn't mean much.

You don't mention my name in your posting, but I assume you're
addressing this to me.

> You point out that there are people who see the next 4T as the
> "last day" as described by The Book of Revelation.

This was the subject of a number of news stories about a year ago,
when political pundits were commenting on an emerging alliance
between the Christian Right and the Jewish Left.

> Then you go on to describe a scenario that has as much to do with
> the book of Revelation as Lightening does to a lightening bug.

> Where dost thou get thy Holy revelations? Art thou a modern day
> Prophet more 'beloved' than John the Beloved, than Daniel, than
> Joel?

> Did you receive divine story telling from the Angel "V---GER" Or
> perhaps is was the Oracle "HAL".

> On the other hand, if we can design computers of intelligence we
> can have Stepford after all .....

I'm not that dumb. I'm well aware that the scenario I described has
nothing to do with what's described in Revelations.

However, I do think that there's a great deal for philosophers and
religious scholars to think about here. There's no doubt that
computers will be more intelligent than humans within a few decades.
There's no doubt that such computers will be used in warfare as
self-duplicating killing machines. And there's no doubt that, as
time goes on, computers will become as much more intelligent than
humans as we are more intelligent than dogs and cats.

So take all that and come up with your own scenarios if you don't
like mine. Base it on Revelations if you'd like. Will the Four
Horsemen of the Apocalypse simply be intelligent computers?

John

P.S.: And there before my eyes was a white horse, and its rider
held a bow. He was given a crown, and he rode forth, conquering and to
conquer ... And out came another horse, all red. To its rider was
given power to take peace from the earth and make men slaughter one
another; and he was given a great sword ... And there, as I looked,
was a black horse; and its rider held in his hand a pair of scales ...
And there, as I looked, was another horse, sickly pale; and its
rider's name was Death, and Hades came close behind. To him was given
power over a quarter of the earth, with the right to kill by sword and
by famine, by pestilence and wild beasts. -- Revelations 6:1-6

Another apocalypse scenario: ultra-fanatical Islamic or Christian fundamentalists decide that God (or Allah) isn't bringing the End fast enough, get their hands on some nukes, and... :o

Originally Posted by Titus Sabinius Parthicus

Another apocalypse scenario: ultra-fanatical Islamic or Christian fundamentalists decide that God (or Allah) isn't bringing the End fast enough, get their hands on some nukes, and... :o

I'm not aware of any apocalyptic prophecying in the Qu'ran. Perhaps you can reference it?

I can't quote sura and verse, if that's the standard of proof you demand, but I do know that there was at least one reference to Allah as 'Master of the Day of Doom' in some of Muhammad's earlier revelations. Also, there are references in Islamic teaching to the 'Mahdi', or 'Savior', who will come in the last days. Sounds pretty apocalyptic to me.

Originally Posted by Titus Sabinius Parthicus

I can't quote sura and verse, if that's the standard of proof you demand, but I do know that there was at least one reference to Allah as 'Master of the Day of Doom' in some of Muhammad's earlier revelations. Also, there are references in Islamic teaching to the 'Mahdi', or 'Savior', who will come in the last days. Sounds pretty apocalyptic to me.

Well, yes. Your uncited paraphrasing does sound a bit apocalyptic. Perhaps you can cite just one of the two -- either any reference to God as "Master of the Day of Doom" (though I am loathe to trust translation from arabic), or the Mahdi coming in "the last days". The Internet is a good place to start; I'm sure you can find an online version.

Otherwise, since my familiarity with the books of Islam runs counter to your assertion, I must consider it (the assertion) unfounded. No offense to yourself, of course...

Prince of Wales Fears Armies of Microscopic Robots

Prince asks scientists to look into 'grey goo'
By Roger Highfield, Science Editor
(Filed: 05/06/2003)

Fears by the Prince of Wales that armies of microscopic robots could
turn the face of the planet into an uninhabitable wasteland have
prompted the nation's top scientists and engineers to launch an
inquiry.

Having attacked GM foods in the past, Prince Charles has more
recently turned his attention to nanotechnology, the ability to
manipulate matter at scales of billionths of a metre.

Concerned by claims by environmentalists that swarms of rogue
"nanomachines" could one day reduce all in their path to "grey goo",
the prince has asked the Royal Society to help him to weigh up the
risks.

Yesterday, at the Cheltenham Festival of Science, Lord May, president
of the Royal Society and former government chief scientist, announced
that the Society and the Royal Academy of Engineering are to launch a
study into nanotechnology.

But Lord May stressed: "There is nothing inherently sinister about
nanoscience or nanotechnology, it just refers to the study of things
on the scale of one-millionth of a millimetre."

He said the prince should be reassured that the "grey goo" scenario,
which is raised by various sources, notably Michael Crichton's book
Prey, is even less likely to come true than cloning dinosaurs.

"The nightmare scenario of self-replicating nanobots destroying
everything is about as likely to come true as Jurassic Park, another
product of Michael Crichton's fertile imagination," said Lord May.

Fearful of the same polarised debate developing as with GM, Lord May
has decided to launch the inquiry, even though many of the risks are
"purely imaginary and conjectured".

Some of the benefits of nanotechnology, such as superior materials
and sunscreens, are clear cut "but maybe there are some things we
ought to be thinking about".

Prince Charles's fears appear to have been prompted by The Big Down,
an extended polemic on the potential evils of nanotechnology,
published at the start of this year by an organisation called ETC, a
pressure group based in Canada.

This report rages against technological developments for creating
extravagant wealth and extreme poverty.

But Lord May said that advances in science and technology have made
life better in both the developed and developing worlds.

Lifespans have increased, from a global life expectancy at birth 50
years ago of 46 years, to 64 years today, he said. World food
production has doubled over the past 35 years, using only 10 per cent
more land.

Sir Martin Rees, Astronomer Royal, also spoke at the festival last
night, on his new book, Our Final Century, which weighs up current
threats to humankind.

Compared with the real threat from nuclear weapons, Sir Martin said
that the "grey goo" scenario "might become a concern 50 years from now
but is science fiction for the moment".

There will be a session on nanotechnology this Saturday at the
festival, which is sponsored by The Daily Telegraph.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.../05/nano05.xml

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Prince of Wales Fears Armies of Microscopic Robots

Prince asks scientists to look into 'grey goo'
By Roger Highfield, Science Editor
(Filed: 05/06/2003)

Fears by the Prince of Wales that armies of microscopic robots could
turn the face of the planet into an uninhabitable wasteland have
prompted the nation's top scientists and engineers to launch an
inquiry.

(snip)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.../05/nano05.xml

Oh Dear! Did the good Prince take his young sons to see Agent Cody Banks and take the story line to heart??? :lol:

That is truly a really fine headline. A person couldn't make up such a thing, only reality itself could provide it.
And this man still thinks he's going to be King? No wonder his mom refuses to retire......

Originally Posted by The Wonk

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Prince of Wales Fears Armies of Microscopic Robots

Prince asks scientists to look into 'grey goo'
By Roger Highfield, Science Editor
(Filed: 05/06/2003)

Fears by the Prince of Wales that armies of microscopic robots could
turn the face of the planet into an uninhabitable wasteland have
prompted the nation's top scientists and engineers to launch an
inquiry.

(snip)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.../05/nano05.xml

Oh Dear! Did the good Prince take his young sons to see Agent Cody Banks and take the story line to heart??? :lol:

The good Prince (born 14 Nov 1948) is three days younger than my father. Knowing my father (who thinks Hillary will be a shoo-in in 2004), anything's possible.

The thing is that Prince Charles' fears are really not so off the
mark.

The kind of nanotechnology that would make the army of microscopic
robots a reality is under development now in labs and companies
around the world, and may reach the implementation stage in 20 to 40
years.

The article refers to a study: "Prince Charles's fears appear to have
been prompted by The Big Down, an extended polemic on the potential
evils of nanotechnology, published at the start of this year by an
organisation called ETC, a pressure group based in Canada."

I've checked out this study, and yes it is a polemic, but it's also a
very well written document.

In fact, I was surprised to find it to be one of the best written
documents describing a new technology that I've ever read. The
polemical portions are in separate sections, clearly labeled, but the
bulk of the document is a beautifully clear exposition of the
technology, including background, different projects under
development, commercial applications, benefits and dangers.

I strongly recommend this document to anyone who wishes to learn
what nanotechnology is all about. The PDF file can be found at:

http://www.etcgroup.org/documents/TheBigDown.pdf

John