Originally Posted by TimWalker
That's what Chas88 and I think.
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That's what Chas88 and I think.
Quite agreed, their kids media screams that they're grooming a current crop of Civics, and have been doing so since around 2000.
~Chas'88
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."
Hey Normal, have you seen Summer Wars (2009)? I'm watching it at the moment and I'm getting vibes from the Generational alignment that are akin to the ones I felt as a little kid in America circa 1991 - 1993. I'm going with the birth years mentioned in the dub, although they're a year off from the film release apparently.
Sakae (b. 1920) - Civic (if not Nomad/Civic cusper)
Mariko (b. 1939) - Artist
Wabisuke (b. 1969) - Idealist (of the Bill Gates/Steve Jobs sort) (partly the villain as it's his selfishness which creates the entire problem of the movie in the first place--he's moved to the US though, so he might swing Idealist/Nomad due to his time in America)
Shota (b. 1989) - Nomad
Natsuki (b. 1992) - Nomad
Kenji (b. 1993) - Nomad (shy nerd sort, the kind that 1980s movies had)
Takashi (b. 1993) - Nomad
Kazuma (b. 1997) - Civic (if not Nomad/Civic cusper)
Younger cousins - OBVIOUS Civics
That's what I can tell, perhaps you can tell more. I'll discuss the film more as I get further along into it. Thus far in terms of family alignment everyone's gathering to come to Sakae's 90's birthday party. Sakae's daughter Mariko is a good little Artist daughter in that she's devoted her life to taking care of her aging mother (that's one thing Silents did, they took care of their Lost, Interbellum, and GI parents).
~Chas'88
Last edited by Chas'88; 02-01-2013 at 11:09 PM.
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."
I've not seen it but I'll have to go back and watch. That being said, a 1939 Japanese cohort is probably a Civic/Artist cusper, and a 1997 cohort is a Nomad/Civic cusper, if not simply late-wave Nomad (perhaps comparable to a 1978 or 1979 American cohort).
I was just pleasantly surprised that it reminded me of the 1991 - 1993 period that I have memories of (yes, I know I was a small child, but the vibes of that era had deep imprints on me as a small child).
~Chas'88
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."
sea lanes
Notice the keystone importance of the Phillipines.
I'd like to open up discussion with Normal again about Japanese
I think the switch in Japanese perspective started a little earlier than he suggest for Pearl Harbor. I'd perhaps suggest 1939--when a few defeats in the Second Sino-Japanese war cause Japan to switch from a 3T inconclusive expansionist war machine to a total war machine of a 4T.
So let's try and map some kind of Japanese turnings if we can, using your connection with the society that you have.
1939 - 1960: Imperial 4T
1960 - 198?: Corporate 1T
198? - 199?/200?: 2T
199?/200? - present: 3T
And let's try and take our model back further than just WWII and look at least as far back as the opening of Japa affected the culture and possible go even further to trace Japanese Turnings, if we can.
~Chas'88
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."
Well first of all, let me just say that as a child of an immigrant, I have connections and knowledge, but by no means am I an expert. So I'll do the best I can, but I wouldn't be surprised if a non-Japanese person knows more than I would.
I might push that 4T start date back to 1937 (Rape of Nanking). Some have even argued that the traditional WWII start date of 1939 is biased towards the European theatre, and that WWII actually started in 1937 with the Japanese invasion of China (Rape of Nanking). So I would push the 4T start date back to 1937.
As far as the 4T end date, well it would have to be whenever a treaty was signed, I would think. The 1945 treaty that ended the fighting comes too soon, as Japan was clearly in Crisis for many years after. Same for the 1951 treaty that formally ended the American occupation the following year and returned sovereignty to Japan. The thing to remember is that it was revised beginning in 1959 by both parties.
Also, Japan was still in a state of shock and rebuilding throughout the 1950s. The country suffered immensely post-war, and the Crisis did not end with the fighting. Its emperor was forced to renounce his power, the country went through a massive paradigm-shift in transitioning from a society that worshipped an almight emperor to a modern democracy; lots of sweeping changes characteristic of a 4T occurred throughout the 1940s and 1950s in Japan.
I think that your 1960 4T end date is a good one. That's the year the Status of Forces agreement was signed and Japan and the U.S. formally agreed to a mutual partnership and formally became allies, which of course set the stage for everything that's happened since then. Some would argue that the end of WWII set the stage for the post-war society, but arguably it was only after they signed the 1960 treaty that Japan truly became the society it is today.
The Japanese economic miracle also didn't begin in earnest until the 1960s when they finally were done cleaning up the mess from the war. The U.S. became Japan's largest trading partner, a distinction that would not have happened if the Status of Forces agreement had not formally declared the two countries allies. The 1964 Olympics in Tokyo was all about showing the world that Japan was back from the depths of war and reconstruction.
So if 1960 is the beginning of their modern saeculum, when does the 2T begin? I'm not sure. We know their economy collapsed in the late 1980s / early 1990s, but I don't think they had a 30 year long 1T. Then again, maybe because Japanese society is so rigid, homogenous, and resistant to change compared to Western society, not to mention the fact that people there live longer than Americans do, the turnings are longer. Just a thought.
Because if we ignore turning lengths, it seems that 1960-1991 could be one very long 1T characterized by rapid economic growth and a bubble economy, and 1991 could be the beginning of a 2T marked by economic stagnation (basically the equivalent of our 1970s), and perhaps the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, which has forced the Japanese to re-think their nuclear policy, energy consumption, and government trust, could be the beginning of their 3T. I don't know. I may have to come back to this, and by no means are these definite lines in the sand. If others have more insight, please share, these are just kind of rough ideas.
As far as pre-WWII society is concerned, I'd have to give that some thought. I don't think you can trace saecular rhythms any further back than 1868 though; before the Meiji restoration, Japan was so traditional having been completely closed from the outside world, that it really didn't experience much change, if any at all, from one generation to the next. It was the kind of "traditional" society S&H describe as being exogenous to the whole theory.
Last edited by Normal; 08-24-2013 at 05:55 PM.
I think looking at when the gender roles became overturned would be a good time to date the Awakening.
~Chas'88
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."
When my parents lived in Japan in the late 1970s, women were still expected to ride in the back seat of a car at all times. I went there in 2010 and I do not remember if I saw women riding in the front seats of cars or not. I think even today women are still expected to quit their jobs once they have a baby, but at the same time I remember reading articles over the years saying that Japan's women were beginning to gain a bit more freedom than what they had in the past. I've been to Japan, but I've certainly never lived there, so this is where someone with more knowledge about the country will have to come in.
Here's a paper/study on comparing the Western Sexual Revolution & Japanese sexual roles in 1974:
http://www.indiana.edu/~kinsey/libra...on%20~%20B.pdf
Here's some brief ideas on Sexuality in Japan:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sexuality_in_Japan
~Chas'88
Last edited by Chas'88; 08-25-2013 at 02:52 AM.
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."
IMO, any talk of 30+ year turnings in an industrialized, urbanized country is foolish and should probably be dismissed out of hand.
On the other hand, Chas' analysis of turnings beginning around the end of odd numbered decades jives with what little I know of Japanese history. This would place the last 4T around 1937, the last 3T around 1919, when their proposal for a clause on racial equality (by which they meant themselves as equal with whites) was rejected by the League of Nations, spurring their push to extreme nationalism. Their 2T would have begun in the late 1890s, possibly after the first Sino-Japanese war, and their 1T would have started after the Satsuma Rebellion in 1877, closing the period of the Samurai for good. This is obviously a rough extrapolation, but it fits.
Anecdotally, the notion that Japan was in a 2T in the 1980s into the 90s fits with my and my peers evaluation growing up of the awesomeness of Japanese pop culture during that time, most especially in video games, manga, and anime. This would also (very roughly) line up 1994 with our 1973 (or 1977), when the post-war economic miracle seemed to end. If this is true, Japan, and Korea (who seems on a similar timeline) should enter into a crisis in the late teens/early twenties, right as the US and China/Taiwan should be closing in on the climax of theirs. The 2020s could be a very tough time for East Asia/Western Pacific. My prediction should still hold that Idealist Toru Hashimoto will take power before the end of the decade, that the hegemonic transition between the US and China will take place in the 2020s, and that Japan, Korea, and the rest of the first island chain will bear the brunt of the exchange. Their crises would then last somewhat longer.
Somewhat whimsically, given technological trends in warfare, we should also see in the 20s something my generation has been waiting to see since they were small children, Japanese fighting robots. Drones may be the start, but can suits be far behind? Time will tell.
Should be interesting.
Last edited by JordanGoodspeed; 08-25-2013 at 06:53 PM.
Hmm, a quick revisiting of the fount of all human knowledge (wiki) suggests that there was in fact an Awakening from the turn of the century or so that flowered during the Taisho Era, with political demonstrations, artistic innovation, high inflation, and a general optimism. Wars like the Siberian Intervention show clear signs of having been in an Awakening, similar to our intervention in Vietnam.
That's interesting to hear, Jordan.
1854 - 1877 would probably be a 4T for Japan in which they had to decide whether they were opening up to foreign influence and abandoning traditions and how far to do so.
~Chas'88
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."
Exactamundo.
The Japanese had realized the need to change at least a couple of decades before, but conservatives blocked it until the arrival of Commodore Perry in 1853. The upheaval wasn't resolved until 1877. This would make that 4T, 1T, and 2T about 25 years a piece, which is standard for traditional agrarian cultures. I would then date the 3T from about 1925-1926 (The Peace Preservation Law and the beginning of the Showa period) and push the start of the 4T forward to 1941. The 1T would then have started at the end of the 50s, with a regeneracy after the end of the war leading to the Japanese postwar miracle. A cursory look at its postwar economic history suggests that it made its big transition to a consumer-based, knowledge intensive mature economy in the late 70s, which would lead me to pinpoint the start of its 2T then. The changing attitudes towards the burakumin untouchable class around that began around that time provide some further support.
More evidence for 2Ts in the early 20th century, and again starting around 1975-1980 and progressing (slowly).
During the Taisho Period:
And some more wiki stuff pointing to changes beginning in the late 1970s.Eventually, the Meiji Emperor died in 1912 and the Meiji Restoration came to an end. The Taisho period began at this time. In addition to the death of the emperor, the new period was a result of the growth of political parties and party government. It was during this time that middle-class women entered the work force without concern from the government.
However, in the mid 1920’s the Showa Restoration replaced the Taisho period. The Showa Restoration “was not a single event involving actors espousing identical political ideas,” but it was the culmination of many events related to Japanese politics. Many people called for another restoration in the 1920’s after Japan gave in to the demands of the West. Furthermore, some Japanese were angry at how Japan lost strength in its stand against Russia. I feel that the Taisho period and the Showa Restoration can be viewed as one continuous era in the advancement of female gender roles. For example, women were granted the legal right to join political parties in 1922. Also during the 1920’s and 1930’s women laborers were able to find work while at the same time women challenge their social roles.
During the Taisho period the number of female laborers increased from the 1910’s through the 1920’s. These laborers were classified, “as urban salaried workers whose educational background and earned income…put them in the working class.” Although their numbers increased in the 1920’s, these women were still small in numbers in relation to the Japanese population. During the mid-Taisho period there were only 3.5 million women working out of the entire population of 27 million women.
Women were given the right to vote in 1946. Other postwar reforms opened education institutions to women and required that women receive equal pay for equal work. In 1986 the Equal Employment Opportunity Law took effect. Legally, few barriers to women's equal participation in the life of society remain, although see Japanese succession controversy.A new generation of educated women is emerging, that is seeking a career as a working woman with no husband or children. Japanese women are joining the labor force in unprecedented numbers. In 1987 there were 24.3 million working women (40% of the labor force), and they accounted for 59% of the increase in employment from 1975 to 1987. The participation rate for women in the labor force (the ratio of those working to all women aged fifteen and older) rose from 45.7% in 1975 to 50.6% in 1991 and was expected to reach 50% by 2000.In 1990 approximately 50% of all women over fifteen years of age participated in the paid labor force. At that time, two major changes in the female work force were under way. The first was a move away from household-based employment. Peasant women and those from merchant andartisan families had always worked. With self-employment becoming less common, though, the more usual pattern was separation of home and workplace, creating new problems of child care, care of the elderly, and housekeeping responsibilities. The second major change was the increased participation of married women in the labor force.
In the 1950s, most women employees were young and single; 62% of the female labor force in 1960 had never been married. In 1987 about 66% of the female labor force was married, and only 23% was made up women who had never married. Some women continued working after marriage, most often in professional and government jobs, but their numbers were small. Others started their own businesses or took over family businesses.Women's status in the labor force was changing in the late 1980s, most likely as a result of changes brought about by the aging of the population (see Elderly people in Japan). Longer life expectancies, smaller families and bunched births, and lowered expectations of being cared for in old age by their children have all led women to participate more fully in the labor force. At the same time, service job opportunities in the postindustrial economy expanded, and there were fewer new male graduates to fill them.
It seems likely that Japan and the US will be allies in the next 4T. The key turning point will be when Japan completely ditches the current restrictions on offensive military force (and we cheer). We will need a "UK" equivalent to face the Axis from a closer range.
Don't worry, we're buddying up with Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, and Vietnam.
Or more accurately, the battle lines are already starting to be drawn up. Start worrying.
The 1931-37 period is one I would include in a spiral of violence that I use to characterize the medieval 2Ts and 4Ts. This would give a vote for a 1931 4T start.
1931: Hamaguchi dies and Wakatsuki Reijirō becomes prime minister (April 14). The Sino-Japanese War starts with the Mukden Incident (September 18). Inukai Tsuyoshi becomes prime minister (December 13) and increases funding for the military in China.
1932: After an attack on Japanese monks in Shanghai (January 18), Japanese forces shell the city (January 29). Manchukuo is established with Henry Pu Yi as emperor (February 29). Inukai is assassinated during a coup attempt and Saitō Makoto becomes prime minister (May 15). Japan is censured by the League of Nations (December 7).
1933: Japan leaves the League of Nations (March 27).
1934: Keisuke Okada becomes prime minister (July 8). Japan withdraws from the Washington Naval Treaty (December 29).
1936: Coup attempt, the February 26 Incident, crushed by Hirohito. Kōki Hirota becomes prime minister (March 9). Japan signs its first pact with Germany (November 25) and occupies Tsingtao (December 3). Mengchiang established in Inner Mongolia.
1937: Senjūrō Hayashi becomes prime minister (February 2). Prince Konoe Fumimaro becomes prime minister (June 4). Battle of Lugou Bridge (July 7). Japan captures Beijing (July 31). Japanese troops occupy Nanjing (December 13), beginning the Nanjing massacre.
As for the period after the war. One could use the end of occupation in 1952, or the burst in growth after the end of the Korean War in 1953. If you look at the annualized growth rates over a centered decadal period the data falls in good, OK, lousy and abysmal periods roughly 1952-1970, 1970-1990, 1990-2008, 2008- that might translate to 1T 2T 3T, and 4T.
Year Growth in GDP per cap
1955 5.9%
1960 7.4%
1965 7.0%
1970 6.1%
1975 3.2%
1980 3.5%
1985 4.0%
1990 2.9%
1995 0.8%
2000 0.7%
2005 0.8%
2010 -0.4%
Last edited by Mikebert; 08-27-2013 at 09:29 PM.
In retrospect, the SHTF during the early 70s. After a failed attempt in the 80s, long term malaise set in.
Nah, I think the beginning of the Chinese invasion (1937) marks a good line in the sand between 3T and 4T. All of the other events pre-1937 sound more like late Unraveling events, not unlike the 2000s decade here in the U.S.
1937 really was the beginning of everything that happened throughout World War II and afterwards. I don't think Japan's 4T Crisis mood was resolved by the early 1950s, even though that's when sovereignty was restored to the country. I still maintain that the dust had not truly settled until the Status of Forces Agreement between the U.S. and Japan was signed in January 1960.
Here’s a bit from about Japan and the Great Depression.
You think the replacement of a democratic government with a dictatorship is a “late Unraveling event, not unlike the 2000s decade here in the U.S.” Would you say the same thing about Hitler coming to power in 1933?Unlike Britain, Japan's economy was doing quite well after WWI. Japan took advantage of Britain's economic slump in the 20's by taking over the markets that had been British-dominated in the pre-war years .
Political parties also became powerful at this time. Previously, the emperor's advisors appointed the Prime Minister, but this changed after the war. During the 20's, the Japanese parliament, called the Diet, was given the privilege of choosing Japan's Prime Minister (p 686, Beers). This change made the government be more conscious of what the Diet, and voters, wanted. More political changes in the 20's included giving all men over the age of 25 the right to vote, the implementation of a national health insurance plan, and the removal of certain labor union restraints.
Japan's prosperous economy and new government structure did not continue into the next decade. Japan, an island nation with few natural resources, relied on foreign trade. When the Great Depression hit the world in the early 1930's, counties no longer imported Japanese luxuries such as silk. The value of Japanese exports dropped by 50% between 1929 and 1931. Many people blamed the government for Japan's economic crisis. After Japan agreed to keep its navy very small at the London Naval Conference in 1930, the military and nationalists became fed up with the government.
Since Japan lacked natural resources and building space, the military invaded the area of Manchuria in northeastern China in September 1931. After the Prime Minister resigned and army officials assassinated the next, the military organized a Japanese military dictatorship.
To me, 1931 looks like a crisis trigger. In that year Japan reached a fork in the path and made a disastrous choice.
Last edited by Mikebert; 08-28-2013 at 07:21 AM.
What's SHTF?
Shit Hit The Fan
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.
Yeah but unless we accept the idea of 30 year turnings (which unlike JordanGoodSpeed, I'm willing to accept in Japan's case because of their incredibly rigid and slow-to-change society, not to mention their long life spans), this presents a problem. I firmly believe that the 1950s, at least until 1955, if not all the way until 1960, was in fact a Crisis era for Japan.
Japan's new government was carved out in the late 1940s sure, and they returned to sovereignty in 1951 or 1952 (can't remember off the top of my head), but their new future wasn't really set in stone until the Status of Forces agreement in 1960. I think that laid the groundwork for the current Japanese state, which marches lock-and-step with U.S. foreign policy interests in East Asia. By the way, when that was signed, there was significant civil unrest that the government ultimately squashed. I think that civil unrest in 1959-1960 surrounding the SOF agreement was the last little flicker of 4T resistance and fighting before they entered the 1T.
Also, my Japanese mother is a 1953 cohort, and she is an Artist archetype down to the bone. Period. The 1950s had to be a 4T for Japan. My 1926 grandmother has very strong Civic / Hero traits. My 1964 uncle is in many ways Boomer-esque in a way that an American 1964 cohort would likely not be. It just all makes sense to me. But at the same time, I understand where you're coming, the 1931 invasion of Manchuria was significant.
Perhaps the 1931 invasion was equivalent to our 9/11 - a late Unraveling event that in many ways appears to be a 4T catalyst, but for whatever reason, came a little bit too early and wasn't quite the spark that moved the country to a 4T mood? I don't know, just throwing out ideas here.
Last edited by Normal; 08-28-2013 at 08:46 PM.
