Originally Posted by Normal

Perhaps the 1931 invasion was equivalent to our 9/11 - a late Unraveling event that in many ways appears to be a 4T catalyst, but for whatever reason, came a little bit too early and wasn't quite the spark that moved the country to a 4T mood? I don't know, just throwing out ideas here.

Back when I considered September 11th to be the catalyst, I used Japan in 1931 as a precedent. I think you're on to something here.

Originally Posted by Normal

I firmly believe that the 1950s, at least until 1955, if not all the way until 1960, was in fact a Crisis era for Japan.

Well 1931-1955 is 24 years; same length as the 1984-2008 3T here.

Japan's new government was carved out in the late 1940s sure, and they returned to sovereignty in 1951 or 1952 (can't remember off the top of my head), but their new future wasn't really set in stone until the Status of Forces agreement in 1960.

A case could be made for the founding of the Self Defense Force in 1954. There was unrest Economic growth took off around then too. Also the political system was established in 1955.

Here’s some articles on Japan in the 1950’s. It’s mixed. The experience of Labor in male-dominated industries is more consistent with a 4T end around 1960, the experience with industries that employed women not so much. The article on feminism suggests an evolution away from a 4T at the start of the decade to a 1T by the end consistent with the switch somewhere in the middle.

By the way, when that (1960 agreement) was signed, there was significant civil unrest that the government ultimately squashed.

Much of the US civil rights movement took place in a 1T. The US heaved with unrest in 1919 and the surrounding years and that was a 3T.

Also, my Japanese mother is a 1953 cohort, and she is an Artist archetype down to the bone. Period. The 1950s had to be a 4T for Japan. My 1926 grandmother has very strong Civic / Hero traits. My 1964 uncle is in many ways Boomer-esque in a way that an American 1964 cohort would likely not be. It just all makes sense to me.

My thrust here is trying out some of the techniques I’ve been using for medieval turnings where obviously one does not have access to the actual persons involved. I looked at GDP, but data only begins in 1954. Here’s birth rate since 1950. It fell steadily to 1957 and then leveled off, even rising slightly to 1973 and then continued down. So if this were a medieval turning I might identify a low stress period between the mid-late 1950’s and the early 1970’s.

Perhaps the 1931 invasion was equivalent to our 9/11 - a late Unraveling event that in many ways appears to be a 4T catalyst, but for whatever reason, came a little bit too early and wasn't quite the spark that moved the country to a 4T mood? I don't know, just throwing out ideas here.

It’s a good idea. There is a key difference between 911 and Manchuria. Both are certainly triggers, but the fallout was different. The 1931 event was accompanied by a shift from a democratic government to a military dictatorship. 911 had no such impact on the political system.

More circumstantial evidence of a Japanese Awakening from the the late 70s to the Turn of the Millennium.

BTW, while I predicted that Nationalist Politicians like Toru Hashimoto would gain ground in Japan over the next couple of election cycles, I would like to take the time now to point out how surprised I've been by both the durability and the extremism of the second Shinzo Abe administration. While we have to see how he weathers the next downturn, and the first clash with China, and I suspect Hashimoto's career is not yet over or even peaked, Abe may be end up being the (nationalist) 4T leader in Japan after all. Just saying, I'm a little surprised.

Hadn't realized how hard right that wing of the LDP actually is. Here I go looking at fringe parties and they've been hiding in the dominant one the whole time.

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

BTW, while I predicted that Nationalist Politicians like Toru Hashimoto would gain ground in Japan over the next couple of election cycles, I would like to take the time now to point out how surprised I've been by both the durability and the extremism of the second Shinzo Abe administration. While we have to see how he weathers the next downturn, and the first clash with China, and I suspect Hashimoto's career is not yet over or even peaked, Abe may be end up being the (nationalist) 4T leader in Japan after all. Just saying, I'm a little surprised.

Hadn't realized how hard right that wing of the LDP actually is. Here I go looking at fringe parties and they've been hiding in the dominant one the whole time.

They know the nuclear fire. They know it in a way no one else does. They also know, in theory, how to fight fire with fire. Now, they look at the crumbling Budapest Memorandum and contemplate reality. It is magnificent. Here is what we need. Japanese lean manufacturing, American triggers, and, Polish TEL technology. We can go from being a slight underdog to being dominant quickly using such a combination.

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

They know the nuclear fire. They know it in a way no one else does. They also know, in theory, how to fight fire with fire. Now, they look at the crumbling Budapest Memorandum and contemplate reality. It is magnificent. Here is what we need. Japanese lean manufacturing, American triggers, and, Polish TEL technology. We can go from being a slight underdog to being dominant quickly using such a combination.

You are far too giddy about the subject. OTOH, I amend my post and look what turns up.

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

BTW, while I predicted that Nationalist Politicians like Toru Hashimoto would gain ground in Japan over the next couple of election cycles, I would like to take the time now to point out how surprised I've been by both the durability and the extremism of the second Shinzo Abe administration. While we have to see how he weathers the next downturn, and the first clash with China, and I suspect Hashimoto's career is not yet over or even peaked, Abe may be end up being the (nationalist) 4T leader in Japan after all. Just saying, I'm a little surprised.

Hadn't realized how hard right that wing of the LDP actually is. Here I go looking at fringe parties and they've been hiding in the dominant one the whole time.

I agree on Abe's nationalism and foreign posture, but on economics he's actually pretty progressive, in an older sense of that term. No one else has had the vision (or guts) to use Keynesian stimulus to get an economy moving again ... except Abe.

EH, we'll see what happens when the hike in the consumption tax hits April 1st. it's also worthwhile to point out that economic indicators aren't so hot and the "third arrow" is still missing. Japan's been building "bridges to nowhere" for years*. They're not in the same position as the US at all.

Don't let your domestic political positions color your judgement of foreign affairs.

*On the other hand, there's always a big military build-up in response to a perceived foreign threat.

More on the risks Japan faces later in 2014. Is the catalyst for the next recession going to be sanctions on/from Russia, China's shadow banking collapse, Japan's Abenomics, something else...? Things are looking awfully shaky on the economic front. Stock markets are still down from the year, 3 months into what is generally the best time of the year for the markets, and employment, income, and retail sales are looking pretty weak...

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

EH, we'll see what happens when the hike in the consumption tax hits April 1st. it's also worthwhile to point out that economic indicators aren't so hot and the "third arrow" is still missing. Japan's been building "bridges to nowhere" for years*. They're not in the same position as the US at all.

Don't let your domestic political positions color your judgement of foreign affairs.

*On the other hand, there's always a big military build-up in response to a perceived foreign threat.

Japan has been as tepid in this regard as the US. Yes, they start projects, see some inflation emerge, and back off ... accompishing nothing, except raising the debt. Abe is actually trying to raise inflation to create devaluation the old fashioned way. We'lll see if it works.

Japan has a huge demographics problem we lack too. So we need to adjust expectations on that alone. If ythey find a way to keep their economy healthy as their population declines and ages, it will become the model for much of the developed world ... not us, though.

We should see some of that shortly. Rises in their consumption taxes have signaled (created) the starts of recessions for the past quarter century. Also agree with you that they're not in the same position, with a declining population and excellent infrastructure, versus a growing population with increasingly shoddy infrastructure for us. Their problem isn't so much that they don't follow through on their infrastructure, 'cause they do, just that they haven't reformed their "zombie" banks or modernized their service industry. On the other hand, they still have low unemployment and (globally) a very high standard of living, and that until recently they had a strong current account surplus to finance their ballooning deficits.

I'm still betting on a very sharp fall within the year, some naval clashes, and military Keynesianism to pick up the industrial slack in the near future. We can refer back to this in a couple of years to see if I'm right.

Japan lifts weapons export ban.

EDITED for a better link.

Japanese anons report that popular forum 2ch has been used for LDP propaganda, with the support of founder Hiroyuki Nishimura.

That reminds me, I've been meaning to suggest, for the record, that one of the things I'm looking for to see if war in East Asia starts becoming a real possibility is if the LDP-New Komeito coalition breaks up, with the hawkish LDP forming new alliances with other small parties instead of the pacifist New Komeito.

Also, interesting things are going on with the Japanese opposition. The Japan Restoration Party appears to be breaking up, with Ishihara keeping the more hawkish members, and Hashimoto shifting political positions to become more of an opposition party, even merging with one of the other parties.

Not what I was expecting, at all.

The Next America Boomers, Millenials, and the Looming Generational Showdown by Paul Taylor. The author refers to S&H and the theory.

The author comments that the graying population of Japan is experiencing a "demographic winter."

"...After the real estate and stock market bubbles burst in 1990, the Japanese essentially lost some of their faith in themselves and their collective future. The ensuing decades of economic stagnation, coming so hard after the go-go decades, which came so quickly after the war years, have rattled this proud, ancient, and still somewhat xenophobic society to such a degree that many of its young have turned inward. In an age of declining expectations, Japan's Millennials are setting their life compasses on individual fulfillment-getting what they can for themselves. They're delaying marriage and childbearing, or abandoning it altogether......"

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

EH, we'll see what happens when the hike in the consumption tax hits April 1st. it's also worthwhile to point out that economic indicators aren't so hot and the "third arrow" is still missing. Japan's been building "bridges to nowhere" for years*. They're not in the same position as the US at all.

Don't let your domestic political positions color your judgement of foreign affairs.

*On the other hand, there's always a big military build-up in response to a perceived foreign threat.

So, uh, Japan falls into recession, "unexpectedly", with the blame falling on the hike in the consumption tax in April. Nailed it.