Yeah. I agree that Western Europe lags us a bit, due to the longer Recovery period after WWII, and some of it may still be 3T; and that they're late 1T on the Russian timeline.

The former Ottoman Empire timeline seems to be totally 2T right now, except of course for the Israeli/Palestinian 4T which is coming on apace. (Well, 1948-2011 ... they're right on schedule, aren't they?)

If Mexico isn't deep into its own 4T, I'll give up enchiladas and huevos rancheros for a year. Can't speak for the rest of Latin America, though when I visited Costa Rica a few years ago, it seemed to be 3T.

Originally Posted by nomad84

While I think it is pretty obvious by now that the US is in a 4T, I'm not sure about Western Europe. Despite all the talk about bailing out Greece, the public mood here in Germany is still 3T. Bailing out Greece (and to a lesser degree Portugal and Ireland) is extremely unpopular here. If Germany were 4T, I think the response would be more along the lines of "it sucks but it has to be done". Instead if there was a plebiscite here whether Greece would get bailed out or not, they wouldn't get a single dime. If Greece does collapse, however, I guess it would pull down Western (and Central and Northern) Europe to a 4T. So if you asked me, as of today, Germany still is 3T, as are Scandinavia, the Benelux countries, France, Austria, Switzerland and Italy. About the UK I'm not sure.

Which I suppose lends support to a 2008 start date for our 4T, rather than '01. Western Europe may be a few years behind us in the saeculum, but probably not a full decade.

Here in Arizona, I was laid off in 2007 when the housing market was slowly starving--well before Lehman went belly up. Our household has yet to recover. But on the whole, I would say early fall of 2008 was beginning of the 4T. In comparison to the last 4T (crash of 1929 was clearly the start), I would say we are only at about 1931. There is much more pain to go through unfortunately. Like S&H, a forecaster named H.S. Dent points to the Boomers saving instead of spending, in addition to staying in the workforce instead of retiring. This trend alone could be responsible for a large portion of the weak GDP numbers.

With 18,000 jobs added last month, and considering the US' population of 311m, that means about one person in 20,000 got hired. This makes the lottery look like a decent bet comparatively. It makes me wonder why I apply for jobs at all right now.

Originally Posted by The Grey Badger

Yeah. I agree that Western Europe lags us a bit, due to the longer Recovery period after WWII, and some of it may still be 3T; and that they're late 1T on the Russian timeline.

The former Ottoman Empire timeline seems to be totally 2T right now, except of course for the Israeli/Palestinian 4T which is coming on apace. (Well, 1948-2011 ... they're right on schedule, aren't they?)

If Mexico isn't deep into its own 4T, I'll give up enchiladas and huevos rancheros for a year. Can't speak for the rest of Latin America, though when I visited Costa Rica a few years ago, it seemed to be 3T.

I totally agree on all counts. However, after two weeks in Europe, I'm convinced they are on the verge of their 4T and the issue is going to be the Euro and the EU. The current scandal in Britain is very interesting because it's a test of their ability to restore some civic virtue.

Originally Posted by KaiserD2

I totally agree on all counts. However, after two weeks in Europe, I'm convinced they are on the verge of their 4T and the issue is going to be the Euro and the EU. The current scandal in Britain is very interesting because it's a test of their ability to restore some civic virtue.

Are you talking about Murdoch's "News of The World" scandal? I would not be surprised if Fox News is doing that crap over here.

Originally Posted by 3MTA3

Here in Arizona, I was laid off in 2007 when the housing market was slowly starving--well before Lehman went belly up. Our household has yet to recover. But on the whole, I would say early fall of 2008 was beginning of the 4T. In comparison to the last 4T (crash of 1929 was clearly the start), I would say we are only at about 1931.

That's about what I see here in South Carolina. My neighborhood is for want of a better term rural working class. There used to be lumber and textile mills as well as furniture shops--classic rural southern American industry. It's all been whittled away through so called free trade agreements that gut environmental and labor protections.
And now in the aftermath of the post bubble local economy I am seeing physical changes. Some of my neighbors have taken on borders. They are usually relatives of some kind. And they usually drive old clunker vehicles which are expanding the potholes in the local roads. I had to get my tires re-balanced last week and I'm a very safe driver who hasn't had a speeding ticket since 2002. And that's driving in front of ticket happy SC cops.
So I'm generally not speeding when I drive.

I will add that I believe the reason why the decline has been more gradual this time is because of the remaining safety nets like unemployment benefits and Social Security in which many influential people within the system want to demolish.
All the lessons have to be re-learned every 80 years or so.
The excessive individualism of a 3T leads to a corrosive level of greed by the then powerful.
And the as the resources such as cheap land and cheap oil that fueled, no pun intended, the economy since the 1T play out the pie begins to shrink.
And eventually enough of the poor have nothing left to lose.
And I'll leave it at that.

There is much more pain to go through unfortunately. Like S&H, a forecaster named H.S. Dent points to the Boomers saving instead of spending, in addition to staying in the workforce instead of retiring. This trend alone could be responsible for a large portion of the weak GDP numbers.

With 18,000 jobs added last month, and considering the US' population of 311m, that means about one person in 20,000 got hired. This makes the lottery look like a decent bet comparatively. It makes me wonder why I apply for jobs at all right now.

The only states of the country that I understand to be doing well are generally in the great plains region.
To put it another way I haven't heard anyone seriously talk about reverting it into a buffalo commons lately.
However, I understand that it takes 2 acres of land for one cost effective wind tower.
So all of the windmill farms do limit that amount of land available for those lucky enough to start over in the Dakotas, or say Nebraska.
To say nothing of the dirtier forms of energy production going on out there now.

This 4T got a long way to play out.
And it won't be mild for most Americans.

Originally Posted by Odin

Are you talking about Murdoch's "News of The World" scandal? I would not be surprised if Fox News is doing that crap over here.

It's worse there. It's as if Fox had 20 Andrew Breitbarts working for them. Plus both parties are deathly afraid of Murdoch.

I am reminded of a comment once that there would not have been a Civil War in 1861 if a different generation would have occupied most of the seats of power.


The current conflict in the USA between Obama and the leaders of the Republicans seems to have a "no compromise" tenor. The division among the fascists special interests, the libertarian right and the socialist left is quite noticeable, almost to the point of hatred; looks to me like the same sort of division and animosity that led to the American Revolution (1775) and the Civil War (1861).

If you couple the divisions with the pain and suffering that in increasing from current economic conditions, it is not hard to see civil violence (revolution or civil war) on the horizon.

Interesting to watch, and at the same time frightening.

Originally Posted by 3MTA3

I would say we are only at about 1931.

If we're lucky. I'm thinking 1851.

Wasn't sure where to put this, but here's an interestig video of Obama speaking to a bi-partisan group of college students about compromising while still having principle. Not too surprisingly, he invokes Lincoln to illustrate his point. Make of it what you want:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CemfB_Z6elY

My personal interpretation has been that the USSR's first 4T ended in 1922, when the Bolsheviks won the Russian Civil War and founded the USSR, then that most of the Stalin years were 1T (yes, including the Purges, and yes, including WWII...it was probably the crappiest 1T in modern world history, but the rigid conformity and vicious public attitudes toward dissidents in the 1930s would seem to fit).

That was not the conformity of the public, it was the conformity of the party. Very different. I'd say it's maybe possible to assign 1T status to the USSR from ca 1943 to the end of the Khrushchev era (1964) (indeed, the crappiest 1T in recorded history at that). The eastern bloc then goes into a sort of muted 2T with Samizdat culture and the Prague Spring which during the 70's passes gradually into the 3T of late Brezhnev (and then Andropov and Chernenko) gerontocracy and social disintegration. By the time Gorbachev arrives on the scene, what we see is not a 2T or 4T but the the fate of the attempt at major social reform during a 3T - it all falls to pieces, the structure too frail, weak and worn out to sustain itself. You opened an inch on the floodgates of oppression and there was simply no way to stop the runaway train. The public wanted it all, the same freedom, individualism, consumer society and basically "coolness" as in the west.

In other words, the historical dynamic of modern Russian history llines up pretty well with the general cycle as we know it, if indeed such a cycle of Zeitgeist exists in the first place. Rather than say there are distinct cycles for different nations (a very strange concept when you think about it), I'd say there is a huge overreaching Zeitgeist cycle that influences the events in various countries in proportion to their integration in the developed world (or Christendom or Indo-European culture or whatever you like to call it).

Originally Posted by Tussilago

That was not the conformity of the public, it was the conformity of the party. A very different thing. I'd say it's maybe possible to assign 1T status to the USSR from ca 1943 to the end of the Khrushchev era (1964) (indeed, the crappiest 1T in recorded history at that). The eastern bloc then goes into a sort of muted 2T with Samizdat culture and the Prague Spring which during the 70's passes gradually into the 3T of late Brezhnev (and then Andropov and Chernenko) gerontocracy and social disintegration. By the time Gorbachev arrives at the scene, what we see is not a 2T or 4T but the the fate of major social revolution during a 3T - it all falls to pieces, the structure too frail, weak and worn out to sustain itself anymore.

In other words, the historical dynamic of modern Russian history llines up pretty well with the general cycle as we know it, if indeed such a cycle of Zeitgeist exists in the first place. Rather than say there are distinct cycles for different nations (a very strange concept when you think about it), I'd say there is a huge overreaching Zeitgeist cycle that influences the events in various countries in proportion to their integration in the developed world (or Christendom or Indo-European culture or whatever you like to call it).

Justin lived in Russia for a while and he is very certain that Russia is 1T right now, I trust his judgement since he was there.

Putin is a classic 1T Nomad leader. Gorby and Yeltsin are obvious Prophets.

Originally Posted by Odin

Justin lived in Russia for a while and he is very certain that Russia is 1T right now, I trust his judgement since he was there.

It might even roughly be true. It won't stop Russia from falling into the 4T Crisis hole with the rest of the planet in the coming years, though. The mistake I think is treating the Saeculum like every country had a cycle of their own. What's the justification for that? Doesn't it suppose a distinct life of every nation so unique not even extreme nationalists would conceive of it? The proper way to look at the cycle I believe is as a single worldwide sequence of Zeitgeist that influences countries, nations and individuals but is only one ingredient making up the specific local setting.

Putin is a classic 1T Nomad leader. Gorby and Yeltsin are obvious Prophets.

I disagree. Gorbachev and Yeltsin behaved, reigned and met their fate like typical Silents, which by the way was exactly what they were. Decent and kindhearted folks, basically. Calling Putin a Nomad is flattering of course, but I think here's a guy so secretive and cunning his generation (which by the way is Boomer) might have been anyone's guess.

Funky Soviet 2T Grooves (1974):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gaSN_...eature=related

At various points in history, the dreams of people across the globe are nearly all the same.

Not even Russia is powerful enough, isolated enough, and large enough to avoid the 4T already underway in Western Europe, East Asia, India, and the United States. It was unable to avoid being dragged into the last 4T as the Soviet Union even if it seemed to be going into a High in the late 1930s. What looks like the start of a 1T can be aborted with a reversion to a 4T, as during the Great Patriotic War.

Originally Posted by Tussilago

It might even roughly be true. It won't stop Russia from falling into the 4T Crisis hole with the rest of the planet in the coming years, though. The mistake I think is treating the Saeculum like every country had a cycle of their own. What's the justification for that? Doesn't it suppose a distinct life of every nation so unique not even extreme nationalists would conceive of it? The proper way to look at the cycle I believe is as a single worldwide sequence of Zeitgeist that influences countries, nations and individuals but is only one ingredient making up the specific local setting.

It's not just Russia, most of Eastern Europe is 1T.

According to Chas Austria was on the same Eastern European cycle until WW1

Originally Posted by ASB65

In other words, shit hasn't really hit the fan yet. When S&H describe the timeline of the crisis they say things will get worse and worse before it gets better. I don't think that most crises only last a few years. 20 years is probably more accurate. The more complex the problems of the crisis are, I'd guess that the longer will take to solve them. Regardless of whether the crisis started with 2001 or 2008, I think we still have a long way to go. And this time around it is more complicated because we are so much more connected with the rest of the world than ever before in history. I don't see any reason why this crisis couldn't last more along the lines of 20 to 30 years than 10 to 20 years like some of our more recent crises.

It appears that this 4T will be one of the more complicated ones. It also seems to be one that is slowly building. By the time we finally get to a (real) Regeneracy, we will have to initiate plans that will take all to many years to implement. The approximate dates that S & H gave for future turnings will be delayed: We will reach the next 1T later than expected, the next 2T will thus begin later than expected, and the projected Crisis of 2100 may extend well into the 22nd century.

Originally Posted by Odin

It's not just Russia, most of Eastern Europe is 1T.

According to Chas Austria was on the same Eastern European cycle until WW1

Yeah, but I personally think it's incorrect. All of Europe was obviously on the same time line in 1848, for instance. Go to Poland, Hungary or the Czech Republic today and I believe you'll find pretty much the same 3T/4T as everywhere else.

More Soviet pop culture: The USSR goes 3T in these 80's commercials, celebrating luxury, materialism and consumer values:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QPOMB...eature=related

Originally Posted by pbrower2a

Not even Russia is powerful enough, isolated enough, and large enough to avoid the 4T already underway in Western Europe, East Asia, India, and the United States. It was unable to avoid being dragged into the last 4T as the Soviet Union even if it seemed to be going into a High in the late 1930s. What looks like the start of a 1T can be aborted with a reversion to a 4T, as during the Great Patriotic War.

Well, at least this is what is bound to happen.

Originally Posted by Tussilago

It might even roughly be true. It won't stop Russia from falling into the 4T Crisis hole with the rest of the planet in the coming years, though.

Well, Russia has a sort of established history of getting tagged during its 1T times with slopover from the neighboring Europeans' 4T. That pattern goes back at least to Napoleon's invasion -- so for more than just two full cycles now. I even like to wonder if that recurring feature in their history might somehow contribute to the fatalistic streak in the Russian national character.

But in any case, as I've made the point repeatedly, the generational theory is about social changes, not about economic, political, or least of all military ones. My initial observations in Russia back in the early 2000s tended to get confirmed over and over by people who had childhood memories of a 1T society (in most detail, both my and my wife's parents, although there was literally not a single person that I talked to who did not recognize the social mood in "Putin's Russia" (for lack of a better term) as being a strong echo of what they remember experiencing in the USA in the 1950s.

Recently, I've gotten even a sort of reverse-confirmation, as several friends of mine from the SPb/LenOblast area have spent goodly chunks of time in and interacting with the social environment in America. They all -- to the last one, and as far as I can tell independently and having no background knowledge of generational theory or any other such biasing pollution -- identify the social environment of 'america of today' as very strongly resembling the social environment of 80s-90s Russia.

The social markers all line up. At least as much as they ever could. And as far as the recollections of people who were actually there go, they line up well on that timeline for at least a couple generations back (for example, a recent fun movie about the Russian 2T is set in the early 1950s). I don't know what could possibly be more compelling evidence...

Originally Posted by Justin '77

Well, Russia has a sort of established history of getting tagged during its 1T times with slopover from the neighboring Europeans' 4T. That pattern goes back at least to Napoleon's invasion -- so for more than just two full cycles now. I even like to wonder if that recurring feature in their history might somehow contribute to the fatalistic streak in the Russian national character.

But in any case, as I've made the point repeatedly, the generational theory is about social changes, not about economic, political, or least of all military ones. My initial observations in Russia back in the early 2000s tended to get confirmed over and over by people who had childhood memories of a 1T society (in most detail, both my and my wife's parents, although there was literally not a single person that I talked to who did not recognize the social mood in "Putin's Russia" (for lack of a better term) as being a strong echo of what they remember experiencing in the USA in the 1950s.

Recently, I've gotten even a sort of reverse-confirmation, as several friends of mine from the SPb/LenOblast area have spent goodly chunks of time in and interacting with the social environment in America. They all -- to the last one, and as far as I can tell independently and having no background knowledge of generational theory or any other such biasing pollution -- identify the social environment of 'america of today' as very strongly resembling the social environment of 80s-90s Russia.

The social markers all line up. At least as much as they ever could. And as far as the recollections of people who were actually there go, they line up well on that timeline for at least a couple generations back (for example, a recent fun movie about the Russian 2T is set in the early 1950s). I don't know what could possibly be more compelling evidence...

That thing about Russians staying in the US saying that they were reminded of Russia in the 80s is interesting! We have a good-sized Bosnian community here and have noticed that the Bosnian "Xers" act like Civics.

I also felt like visiting Ireland was a breath of fresh and optimistic air... Sure the economy is bad, but people were cracking jokes about the job market, having fun with what they had, and being thankful that "At least it isn't the 80s."

Not very 4T at all.

Which turning is Ireland in?

Originally Posted by TimWalker

Which turning is Ireland in?

I don't know. But I remember reading on here someone saying that Ireland was actually in the 1T.

Originally Posted by ASB65

I think we still have a long way to go. And this time around it is more complicated because we are so much more connected with the rest of the world than ever before in history.

This time around I expect the distinction between External and Internal Crises to blur. Some issues are domestic, but others will not respect official boundries: Peak Oil, terrorism, international trade, pandemics, and so on....

Originally Posted by TimWalker

This time around I expect the distinction between External and Internal Crises to blur. Some issues are domestic, but others will not respect official boundries: Peak Oil, terrorism, international trade, pandemics, and so on....

After some unity is created with government figuring out a way to ease our economic troubles (positive thinking) I'm thinking that the ground should be laid for us to be able to focus on external threats (more positive thinking).