You may read archived posts from this topic by following this link to the old forum site. The most recent messages in this topic are included below for your convenience.

Posted by: Tim Walker '56 (Tim Walker '56 )

Date posted: Sun Apr 1 14:46:37 2001
Subject: More Info
Message:
More web sites relevant to a Phase 3 Unraveling:
http://www.nrel.gov/otec/ and http://www.nearctica.com/environ/renew/otec.htm

Posted by: Tim Walker '56 (Tim Walker '56 )

Date posted: Tue Apr 3 7:22:38 2001
Subject: Medieval Western City-State Cosmo
Message:
In Arnold Toynbee's viewpoint, a Creative Minority can light
up the world. Late in the West's Medieval Period there arose the Italian city-states, which Toynbee viewed as stars-think of ancient Athens at its apogee-against a background of feudal darkness. Elsewhere other city-states rose, such as the Hansa cities of Northern Europe. These cities formed a galaxy of light, a Milky Way against a dark background of feudalism, for an all too brief period.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: admin on 2001-07-04 00:37 ]</font>

Posted by: Tim Walker '56 (Tim Walker '56 )

Date posted: Wed Apr 4 7:17:06 2001
Subject: Oceanic Western City-State Cosmos
Message:
Western civilization has shown three or four ways in which
it can organize itself: feudalism, medieval city-state, nation state, and multi-national states (Britain, Switzerland, Austro-Hungarian Empire). Late in the Medieval period it had both feudalism and city-states. The Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion system brings up the prospect of floating city-states. These could potentially be self sufficient, tapping the sea for energy, minerals, and food-and these could become exports to dry land. Imagine a religious (New Prophet?), political, ethnic, or subcultural group establishing its own city at sea. Imagine a multiplicity of groups doing likewise. The expansion would somewhat resemble that of the Polynesians fanning out across the Pacific, but culturally more like a Switzerland spread out on the Aegean islands. In the meantime the landlubbers would either maintain their sizable states or merge into several empires or into one grand Universal State. We would end up with a hybrid of Medieval city-state with large states, or a hybrid of city-state with a Universal (landlubber) Empire.

Posted by: Tim Walker '56 (Tim Walker '56 )

Date posted: Sun May 6 11:25:46 2001
Subject: Universal State Phase And The West
Message:
In his book-The Evolution Of Civilizations: An Introduction
To Historical Analysis-Carroll Quigley said that a civilization may have a core area and a peripheral area. The peripheral area may have been established by a wave of expansion emanating from the core area. See the archive "",[http://csf.colorado.edu/jwsr/archive/vol1/v1_n1.htm],"". For the West the original core has been congealing into the Universal State of the European Union. The 15th century expansion founded the peripheral area in the Americas (also South Africa); the 18th century expansion founded the younger peripheral area of the Antipodes. Could the Final Frontier form a new peripheral area, a new arena for expansion? The unEarthly environments out there offer no close analogy to Earthly expansions. At this point I think the closest would be the dawn of Eskimo culture. Think of a proto-Eskimo paddling out onto the Arctic Ocean. Mir and Skylab were space age igloos. Now picture a proto-Eskimo venturing out onto the ice to hunt seals, and then hauling the meat back to shore. This might be compared to importing energy or minerals/manufactured materials from space. OK, my question is, if this becomes a significant expansion, what happens to the rest of the West? What will be the fate of the Universal State during a new expansion?

Posted by: Tim Walker '56 (Tim Walker '56 )

Date posted: Sun May 6 11:34:27 2001
Subject: Mistake
Message:
Please pardon my botched attempt to create a link.

Re: Oceanic City-States - check David Brin's novel Earth, set in 2040. He discusses floating nations created by refugees -- essentially a king-size version of 'boat people' who never land.

************************************************** **************

I think the idea is very appealing. Nevertheless, the regions of the ocean that would be optimal for use are somewhat limited.

Still, such city states could be a wonderful outgrowth of human civilization--"seeds" that blossom into many different kinds of communities. Some would work, some wouldn't. Presumably, the best ones would survive, be fruitful, and multiply in a Darwinian sense.

Perhaps they would be unhindered by the static nature of community evolution that is inherant within conventional nation states.

Originally Posted by jcarson71

I think the idea is very appealing. Nevertheless, the regions of the ocean that would be optimal for use are somewhat limited.

Still, such city states could be a wonderful outgrowth of human civilization--"seeds" that blossom into many different kinds of communities. Some would work, some wouldn't. Presumably, the best ones would survive, be fruitful, and multiply in a Darwinian sense.

Perhaps they would be unhindered by the static nature of community evolution that is inherant within conventional nation states.

At least one architect thought about the problem of actually building such a city, long before this became "popular". If you are really interested in this, you need this book. Paolo Soleri also thought about arcostructures built in/across canyons and in space.

I spent hours looking through a well-worn copy of this book in the early '70s. It was a friends copy, it was already out of print, so I never got one of my own. I think I'll just correct that, now.

BTW, Arcosanti is a real attempt at trying the city-as-hyperbuilding concept.[/url]

************************************************** **************

Originally Posted by Tim Walker

Floating cities have been envisioned, including the Millenium project design. Actually, I think Mars would be an obvious place for an arcology. (The Martian World House shown in the terraforming gallery is simply the largest version).

As a boomer, I won't be around to see a settlement on Mars. But I like the thought that there will be one (many?) there someday.

*** ***

Originally Posted by Tim Walker

In trying to predict our future it is tempting to extrapolate from the history of the ancient Greeks and Romans. This is understandable because this is an important part of the heritage inherited by the West, and because we know their history better than most. [ However, our religious heritage traces back to the ancient Hebrews rather than Greco-Roman paganism (which makes us more similar to Byzantium in that respect)].

So, could the West experience events/phases similar to other civilizations but not the Classical? Could there turn out to be precedents in non-Classical cultures that might be relevant? *** ***

Many people have seen interesting (and unnerving) parallels between the modern West (post 1800) and the Era of Contending States in China. Note that the very name 'China' derives from the state of Chi'n, which eventually conquered rival 'Chinese' sovereignties to create the true Chinese Empire, called Han China after the initial dynastic struggles settled down.

Note that the smaller Contenting States were 'Chinese' in culture, but politically independent (more or less) of each other. Also note that once the unification occurred, China did not expand very much after that. There were some expansions, but Imperial China of that age was a stability state. It was during the early years of this period that the first elements of the Great Wall were built. Toynbee and Spengler, among others, have noted the tendency of late-cultural 'stability states' to build walls, psychologically reflective of a desire to wall out the outside.

(Interestingly, until contact with the West made it a tourist attraction and a sort of wonder, the Chinese were distinctly ambivalent about that Wall. To many Chinese, it was a reminder of a very harsh conquerer.)

Originally Posted by RadioHead

Originally Posted by jcarson71

I think the idea is very appealing. Nevertheless, the regions of the ocean that would be optimal for use are somewhat limited.

Still, such city states could be a wonderful outgrowth of human civilization--"seeds" that blossom into many different kinds of communities. Some would work, some wouldn't. Presumably, the best ones would survive, be fruitful, and multiply in a Darwinian sense.

Perhaps they would be unhindered by the static nature of community evolution that is inherant within conventional nation states.

At least one architect thought about the problem of actually building such a city, long before this became "popular". If you are really interested in this, you need this book. Paolo Soleri also thought about arcostructures built in/across canyons and in space.

I spent hours looking through a well-worn copy of this book in the early '70s. It was a friends copy, it was already out of print, so I never got one of my own. I think I'll just correct that, now.

BTW, Arcosanti is a real attempt at trying the city-as-hyperbuilding concept.[/url]

Soleri's great strength is his imagination and willingness to look beyond the immediate requirements. His great weakness is a lack of recognition for practical economic, political, and psychological realities.

It's an interesting, and useful, exercise to ponder the history of 'planned cities' in general. While all cities must engage in some pre-planning, such as basic zoning, attempts to create more ambitious cities along the lines of a designer's vision have been uniformly disappointing, at best. Somehow the pre-plan never matches practical economic needs. The really successful, vibrant cities have all grown 'organically'.

Manhattan is a limited exception, the ancient square-grid plan was laid out across the island very early. But they didn't do much more than project the street grid, they didn't try to plan every economic detail ahead of time.

Most of Soleri's visions would require just that.

Originally Posted by jcarson71

I think the idea is very appealing. Nevertheless, the regions of the ocean that would be optimal for use are somewhat limited.

Still, such city states could be a wonderful outgrowth of human civilization--"seeds" that blossom into many different kinds of communities. Some would work, some wouldn't. Presumably, the best ones would survive, be fruitful, and multiply in a Darwinian sense.

Perhaps they would be unhindered by the static nature of community evolution that is inherant within conventional nation states.

Considering the collossal capital investment such projects would require, it's a near certainty that they'll directly reflect the primary ethos and cultural nature of the government or corporation that creates them. This isn't something a small group of dissenters is going to do on their own incomes, they'll be megaprojects.

They might evolve in other directions later, but given modern communications and travel, it's doubtful they could avoid being carried along by the general currents (no pun intended). Also, they'll need an economic basis just to sustain themselves in existence. What will they sell?

Of course, that would leave open the possibility of artificial island-cultures designed from the beginning for independence, with self-contained economies. But then the question is, what does the governmental or corporate body get out of creating them? Possibilities do occur to me, but they aren't necessarily very ennobling ones.

Originally Posted by Webmaster

Posted by: Tim Walker '56 (Tim Walker '56 )

Date posted: Sun May 6 11:25:46 2001
Subject: Universal State Phase And The West
Message:
OK, my question is, if this becomes a significant expansion, what happens to the rest of the West? What will be the fate of the Universal State during a new expansion?

Historically, if we assume the Toynbee-Splenger definition of a universal state is accurate, there usually aren't any expansions during such periods.
Classical Civilization, for ex, expanded into southern Britain, but not much more, throughout the Imperial period.

Originally Posted by Webmaster

Posted by: Tim Walker '56 (Tim Walker '56 )

Date posted: Wed Apr 4 7:17:06 2001
Subject: Oceanic Western City-State Cosmos
Message:
Western civilization has shown three or four ways in which
it can organize itself: feudalism, medieval city-state, nation state, and multi-national states (Britain, Switzerland, Austro-Hungarian Empire). Late in the Medieval period it had both feudalism and city-states. The Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion system brings up the prospect of floating city-states. These could potentially be self sufficient, tapping the sea for energy, minerals, and food-and these could become exports to dry land.

Who pays to found them? If they don't start out as independent entities, it's a little hard to see how they become so, since they would be very, very vulnerable to military attack or siege.

New colonies need economic reasons to 'get going' before they can become self-sustaining. For example, a good case can be made that it was tobacco that made the American Colonies a viable concern in their early stages.

Charles Kupchan presented a civilizational theory at the end of his book in a chapter entitled "The Rebirth of History." To summarize, as a society changes its way of making a living its organization and source of communal identity change with it. As it does so old institutions become de-ligitamized.

#1 Nomadic. Hunter-gatherers. Approximate time-prior to 8000 BC. Organized as bands. Communal identity-animism.

#2 Early agriculture. Hunting-gathering plus the beginnings of agriculture. Approximate time 8000-3000 BC. Organization-tribe, chiefdom. Communal identity-nature worship.

#3 Agriculture. Approximate time 3000 BC-1700 AD. Organization in the form of kingdoms, coercive state. Communal identity-organized religion.

#4 Industrial Capitalism. Approximate time 1700-2000 AD. Organization in the form of republics. Communal identity-nationalism.

#5 Digital Capitalism. 2000? Organization? Communal identity?

Charles Kupchan presented a civilizational theory at the end of his book in a chapter entitled "The Rebirth of History." To summarize, as a society changes its way of making a living its organization and source of communal identity change with it. As it does so old institutions become de-ligitamized.

#1 Nomadic. Hunter-gatherers. Approximate time-prior to 8000 BC. Organized as bands. Communal identity-animism.

#2 Early agriculture. Hunting-gathering plus the beginnings of agriculture. Approximate time 8000-3000 BC. Organization-tribe, chiefdom. Communal identity-nature worship.

#3 Agriculture. Approximate time 3000 BC-1700 AD. Organization in the form of kingdoms, coercive state. Communal identity-organized religion.

#4 Industrial Capitalism. Approximate time 1700-2000 AD. Organization in the form of republics. Communal identity-nationalism.

#5 Digital Capitalism. 2000? Organization? Communal identity?

Charles Kupchan presented a civilizational theory at the end of his book in a chapter entitled "The Rebirth of History." To summarize, as a society changes its way of making a living its organization and source of communal identity change with it. As it does so old institutions become de-ligitamized.

#1 Nomadic. Hunter-gatherers. Approximate time-prior to 8000 BC. Organized as bands. Communal identity-animism.

#2 Early agriculture. Hunting-gathering plus the beginnings of agriculture. Approximate time 8000-3000 BC. Organization-tribe, chiefdom. Communal identity-nature worship.

#3 Agriculture. Approximate time 3000 BC-1700 AD. Organization in the form of kingdoms, coercive state. Communal identity-organized religion.

#4 Industrial Capitalism. Approximate time 1700-2000 AD. Organization in the form of republics. Communal identity-nationalism.

#5 Digital Capitalism. 2000? Organization? Communal identity?

Quoting:

"It is feedback between the mode of production and the political and social institutions that follow from it that gives history a cyclical as well as evolutionary character....

"As modes of production advance, and political and social institutions evolve in step, societies are better able to provide sustenance and defense, enabling them to prevail over and eventually replace the polities that came before...."

"This shift to a digital mode of production is still in a nascent phase. But as the digital era unfolds, it promises to cause fundamental change in prevailing political and social institutions just as did previous epochal transitions. America is the primary founder of this new era and has fast been incorporating digital technology into its society, economy, and military. Moreover, it has embraced a set of next-generation principles revolving around finance, capitalism, information technology, and globalization for keeping itself at the forefront of this new era. Paradoxically, however, the digital age may well compromise the core political and social institutions that have served America so well during its rise to global dominance."

Quoting:

"It is feedback between the mode of production and the political and social institutions that follow from it that gives history a cyclical as well as evolutionary character....

"As modes of production advance, and political and social institutions evolve in step, societies are better able to provide sustenance and defense, enabling them to prevail over and eventually replace the polities that came before...."

"This shift to a digital mode of production is still in a nascent phase. But as the digital era unfolds, it promises to cause fundamental change in prevailing political and social institutions just as did previous epochal transitions. America is the primary founder of this new era and has fast been incorporating digital technology into its society, economy, and military. Moreover, it has embraced a set of next-generation principles revolving around finance, capitalism, information technology, and globalization for keeping itself at the forefront of this new era. Paradoxically, however, the digital age may well compromise the core political and social institutions that have served America so well during its rise to global dominance."

Quoting:

"It is feedback between the mode of production and the political and social institutions that follow from it that gives history a cyclical as well as evolutionary character....

"As modes of production advance, and political and social institutions evolve in step, societies are better able to provide sustenance and defense, enabling them to prevail over and eventually replace the polities that came before...."

"This shift to a digital mode of production is still in a nascent phase. But as the digital era unfolds, it promises to cause fundamental change in prevailing political and social institutions just as did previous epochal transitions. America is the primary founder of this new era and has fast been incorporating digital technology into its society, economy, and military. Moreover, it has embraced a set of next-generation principles revolving around finance, capitalism, information technology, and globalization for keeping itself at the forefront of this new era. Paradoxically, however, the digital age may well compromise the core political and social institutions that have served America so well during its rise to global dominance."

.................................................. .................................................. ............