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Thread: The Greatest Cycle-Rebirth Of A Civilization - Page 2







Post#26 at 02-03-2004 05:35 PM by Tim Walker '56 [at joined Jun 2001 #posts 24]
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Post#27 at 02-03-2004 05:35 PM by Tim Walker '56 [at joined Jun 2001 #posts 24]
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Post#28 at 02-03-2004 09:48 PM by Zarathustra [at Where the Northwest meets the Southwest joined Mar 2003 #posts 9,198]
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Re: Winter 2003/2004 issue, The National Interest

Quote Originally Posted by Tim Walker
Networking Nation-States The Coming Info-National Order by James C. Bennett.

The first few pages comment that:

#1 Existing institutions tend to modified in response to change instead of being completely replaced.

#2 Strong civil societies result in democracy and free markets/entrepreneurship; those that don't have difficulty in promoting such.

#3 The Information Revolution will cut off revenue to sclerotic, highly bureaucratic states by hiding transactions with encryption. Forced compliance will be no substitute for voluntary compliance.

#4 States that survive will tend to have: a)small populations in a geographically confined area, or b) ethnic or religious homogeneity, or c) deliver prosperity & security, or d) feature market-ordered economies with scope for individual enterprise, or e) offer low transaction costs for leaving (for the disgruntled), or f) serve as a home base for a diaspora, or g) maintain enough international associations to enjoy the security, economic and cooperative ties formerly enjoyed only by large states (the example used was Iceland), or h)share a positive, self-affirming narrative (the American creed, for example...) if lacking ethnic or religious homogeneity.

#5 States with strong civil societies will thrive.

#6 Global government will either be a) the empire of a major power, or b) pander to the lowest common denominator-"hapless dictatorships, rotten oligarchies and shabby kleptocracies."
Sounds very similar to what the authors of The Great Reckoning and The Sovereign Individual said.
Americans have had enough of glitz and roar . . Foreboding has deepened, and spiritual currents have darkened . . .
THE FOURTH TURNING IS AT HAND.
See T4T, p. 253.







Post#29 at 02-03-2004 09:48 PM by Zarathustra [at Where the Northwest meets the Southwest joined Mar 2003 #posts 9,198]
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Re: Winter 2003/2004 issue, The National Interest

Quote Originally Posted by Tim Walker
Networking Nation-States The Coming Info-National Order by James C. Bennett.

The first few pages comment that:

#1 Existing institutions tend to modified in response to change instead of being completely replaced.

#2 Strong civil societies result in democracy and free markets/entrepreneurship; those that don't have difficulty in promoting such.

#3 The Information Revolution will cut off revenue to sclerotic, highly bureaucratic states by hiding transactions with encryption. Forced compliance will be no substitute for voluntary compliance.

#4 States that survive will tend to have: a)small populations in a geographically confined area, or b) ethnic or religious homogeneity, or c) deliver prosperity & security, or d) feature market-ordered economies with scope for individual enterprise, or e) offer low transaction costs for leaving (for the disgruntled), or f) serve as a home base for a diaspora, or g) maintain enough international associations to enjoy the security, economic and cooperative ties formerly enjoyed only by large states (the example used was Iceland), or h)share a positive, self-affirming narrative (the American creed, for example...) if lacking ethnic or religious homogeneity.

#5 States with strong civil societies will thrive.

#6 Global government will either be a) the empire of a major power, or b) pander to the lowest common denominator-"hapless dictatorships, rotten oligarchies and shabby kleptocracies."
Sounds very similar to what the authors of The Great Reckoning and The Sovereign Individual said.
Americans have had enough of glitz and roar . . Foreboding has deepened, and spiritual currents have darkened . . .
THE FOURTH TURNING IS AT HAND.
See T4T, p. 253.







Post#30 at 02-03-2004 09:48 PM by Zarathustra [at Where the Northwest meets the Southwest joined Mar 2003 #posts 9,198]
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Re: Winter 2003/2004 issue, The National Interest

Quote Originally Posted by Tim Walker
Networking Nation-States The Coming Info-National Order by James C. Bennett.

The first few pages comment that:

#1 Existing institutions tend to modified in response to change instead of being completely replaced.

#2 Strong civil societies result in democracy and free markets/entrepreneurship; those that don't have difficulty in promoting such.

#3 The Information Revolution will cut off revenue to sclerotic, highly bureaucratic states by hiding transactions with encryption. Forced compliance will be no substitute for voluntary compliance.

#4 States that survive will tend to have: a)small populations in a geographically confined area, or b) ethnic or religious homogeneity, or c) deliver prosperity & security, or d) feature market-ordered economies with scope for individual enterprise, or e) offer low transaction costs for leaving (for the disgruntled), or f) serve as a home base for a diaspora, or g) maintain enough international associations to enjoy the security, economic and cooperative ties formerly enjoyed only by large states (the example used was Iceland), or h)share a positive, self-affirming narrative (the American creed, for example...) if lacking ethnic or religious homogeneity.

#5 States with strong civil societies will thrive.

#6 Global government will either be a) the empire of a major power, or b) pander to the lowest common denominator-"hapless dictatorships, rotten oligarchies and shabby kleptocracies."
Sounds very similar to what the authors of The Great Reckoning and The Sovereign Individual said.
Americans have had enough of glitz and roar . . Foreboding has deepened, and spiritual currents have darkened . . .
THE FOURTH TURNING IS AT HAND.
See T4T, p. 253.







Post#31 at 02-03-2004 10:31 PM by Tim Walker '56 [at joined Jun 2001 #posts 24]
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"Networking Nation-States" continued....

Quoting:

"Consider the visible effects of the current phase of the scientific-technological revolutions: the Internet; the communications satellite and high-bandwidth fiber-optic cable; fast, cheap intercontinental air travel...Even today, these have brought geographically distant areas into close proximity for many purposes...but as the old natural barriers to trade and communication--mountain ranges, wide oceans, and other natural barriers--no longer need be borders, the next most significant set of barriers remains--differences in language, customs, legal systems, religions....

"The network civilization is associated primarily on the lines of cultural contiguity: groups of nations sharing language, customs, legal systems, religions and other significant values, most specifically , trust characteristics...."

Bennett commented that debate about the Gulf War occurred within policy elites. By the time of the Iraq war debate had become a collaborative affair among bloggers from London to Sydney, with a distinct disintermediation and popular involvement. The views of the bloggers did not divide on the basis of nationality.

Bennett also wrote of an international cadre of directors and actors from the different English speaking countries.

"The Network Commonwealth is not a nation-state of the historical type. It is not a state at all, although it has the potential to offer an alternative means for fulfilling some traditional fuctions of economic states. It is a means of linking smaller political communities so they can deal with common concerns. It is a way to provide opportunities to their members--opportunities that cannot be provided by small, independent sovereignties alone...

"The Industrial Revolution made continent-spanning nation-states possible. The Information Revolution offers the possibility that civil societies may link themselves on a globe-spanning--although not universally inclusive --scale. Such is the network civilization. It can hardly fail to call forth political and economic forms to parallel its effects...."

(~*~)







Post#32 at 02-03-2004 10:31 PM by Tim Walker '56 [at joined Jun 2001 #posts 24]
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"Networking Nation-States" continued....

Quoting:

"Consider the visible effects of the current phase of the scientific-technological revolutions: the Internet; the communications satellite and high-bandwidth fiber-optic cable; fast, cheap intercontinental air travel...Even today, these have brought geographically distant areas into close proximity for many purposes...but as the old natural barriers to trade and communication--mountain ranges, wide oceans, and other natural barriers--no longer need be borders, the next most significant set of barriers remains--differences in language, customs, legal systems, religions....

"The network civilization is associated primarily on the lines of cultural contiguity: groups of nations sharing language, customs, legal systems, religions and other significant values, most specifically , trust characteristics...."

Bennett commented that debate about the Gulf War occurred within policy elites. By the time of the Iraq war debate had become a collaborative affair among bloggers from London to Sydney, with a distinct disintermediation and popular involvement. The views of the bloggers did not divide on the basis of nationality.

Bennett also wrote of an international cadre of directors and actors from the different English speaking countries.

"The Network Commonwealth is not a nation-state of the historical type. It is not a state at all, although it has the potential to offer an alternative means for fulfilling some traditional fuctions of economic states. It is a means of linking smaller political communities so they can deal with common concerns. It is a way to provide opportunities to their members--opportunities that cannot be provided by small, independent sovereignties alone...

"The Industrial Revolution made continent-spanning nation-states possible. The Information Revolution offers the possibility that civil societies may link themselves on a globe-spanning--although not universally inclusive --scale. Such is the network civilization. It can hardly fail to call forth political and economic forms to parallel its effects...."

(~*~)







Post#33 at 02-03-2004 10:31 PM by Tim Walker '56 [at joined Jun 2001 #posts 24]
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"Networking Nation-States" continued....

Quoting:

"Consider the visible effects of the current phase of the scientific-technological revolutions: the Internet; the communications satellite and high-bandwidth fiber-optic cable; fast, cheap intercontinental air travel...Even today, these have brought geographically distant areas into close proximity for many purposes...but as the old natural barriers to trade and communication--mountain ranges, wide oceans, and other natural barriers--no longer need be borders, the next most significant set of barriers remains--differences in language, customs, legal systems, religions....

"The network civilization is associated primarily on the lines of cultural contiguity: groups of nations sharing language, customs, legal systems, religions and other significant values, most specifically , trust characteristics...."

Bennett commented that debate about the Gulf War occurred within policy elites. By the time of the Iraq war debate had become a collaborative affair among bloggers from London to Sydney, with a distinct disintermediation and popular involvement. The views of the bloggers did not divide on the basis of nationality.

Bennett also wrote of an international cadre of directors and actors from the different English speaking countries.

"The Network Commonwealth is not a nation-state of the historical type. It is not a state at all, although it has the potential to offer an alternative means for fulfilling some traditional fuctions of economic states. It is a means of linking smaller political communities so they can deal with common concerns. It is a way to provide opportunities to their members--opportunities that cannot be provided by small, independent sovereignties alone...

"The Industrial Revolution made continent-spanning nation-states possible. The Information Revolution offers the possibility that civil societies may link themselves on a globe-spanning--although not universally inclusive --scale. Such is the network civilization. It can hardly fail to call forth political and economic forms to parallel its effects...."

(~*~)







Post#34 at 02-03-2004 11:40 PM by Tim Walker '56 [at joined Jun 2001 #posts 24]
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Bennett's Network Commonwealth

Quoting Bennett:

"The emergence of the Network Commonwealth as a potential form of political, social and economic organization is driven by three emerging realities.

"First, the basis of the world economy is changing from manufacturing to information....

"Second, physical space is no longer the most important factor in political association. Cultural space is....

"Finally, cooperation is proportional to communication as complexity increases. Meaningful, thorough and successful cooperation is most easily accomplished among those who can communicate with the most depth and clarity--namely, those who share language, a set of political assumptions or common moral ideas...."

The Network Commonwealth "facilitates the movement of people, goods and services across borders, forming and strengthening shared cultures (both elite and popular) and experiences--for example, common publications read by the publics of all of the nations of a particular network civilization. In turn, this lays the foundation for greater institutional cooperation (in the form of common markets, permanent security alliances and joint scientific and technological projects). A Network Commonwealth would build on these existing forms of transnational cooperation and thus emerge along existing information-oriented lines of linguistic and cultural affinity. It would be defined by close trading relationships and substantial military cooperation and intelligence-sharing among its constituent states, as well as a high degree of intra-network flows of migration and investment."







Post#35 at 02-03-2004 11:40 PM by Tim Walker '56 [at joined Jun 2001 #posts 24]
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Bennett's Network Commonwealth

Quoting Bennett:

"The emergence of the Network Commonwealth as a potential form of political, social and economic organization is driven by three emerging realities.

"First, the basis of the world economy is changing from manufacturing to information....

"Second, physical space is no longer the most important factor in political association. Cultural space is....

"Finally, cooperation is proportional to communication as complexity increases. Meaningful, thorough and successful cooperation is most easily accomplished among those who can communicate with the most depth and clarity--namely, those who share language, a set of political assumptions or common moral ideas...."

The Network Commonwealth "facilitates the movement of people, goods and services across borders, forming and strengthening shared cultures (both elite and popular) and experiences--for example, common publications read by the publics of all of the nations of a particular network civilization. In turn, this lays the foundation for greater institutional cooperation (in the form of common markets, permanent security alliances and joint scientific and technological projects). A Network Commonwealth would build on these existing forms of transnational cooperation and thus emerge along existing information-oriented lines of linguistic and cultural affinity. It would be defined by close trading relationships and substantial military cooperation and intelligence-sharing among its constituent states, as well as a high degree of intra-network flows of migration and investment."







Post#36 at 02-03-2004 11:40 PM by Tim Walker '56 [at joined Jun 2001 #posts 24]
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Bennett's Network Commonwealth

Quoting Bennett:

"The emergence of the Network Commonwealth as a potential form of political, social and economic organization is driven by three emerging realities.

"First, the basis of the world economy is changing from manufacturing to information....

"Second, physical space is no longer the most important factor in political association. Cultural space is....

"Finally, cooperation is proportional to communication as complexity increases. Meaningful, thorough and successful cooperation is most easily accomplished among those who can communicate with the most depth and clarity--namely, those who share language, a set of political assumptions or common moral ideas...."

The Network Commonwealth "facilitates the movement of people, goods and services across borders, forming and strengthening shared cultures (both elite and popular) and experiences--for example, common publications read by the publics of all of the nations of a particular network civilization. In turn, this lays the foundation for greater institutional cooperation (in the form of common markets, permanent security alliances and joint scientific and technological projects). A Network Commonwealth would build on these existing forms of transnational cooperation and thus emerge along existing information-oriented lines of linguistic and cultural affinity. It would be defined by close trading relationships and substantial military cooperation and intelligence-sharing among its constituent states, as well as a high degree of intra-network flows of migration and investment."







Post#37 at 02-05-2004 12:55 AM by Tim Walker '56 [at joined Jun 2001 #posts 24]
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Bennett again








Post#38 at 02-05-2004 12:55 AM by Tim Walker '56 [at joined Jun 2001 #posts 24]
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Bennett again








Post#39 at 02-05-2004 12:55 AM by Tim Walker '56 [at joined Jun 2001 #posts 24]
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Bennett again








Post#40 at 03-04-2004 01:52 AM by Tim Walker '56 [at joined Jun 2001 #posts 24]
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Network Commonwealth

Actually, I think Bennett overstates his case. Some types of association that he uses as examples have been seen before. For example (off the top of my head).... Trade between culturally similar people can be traced far back-think of the Hanseatic League. Security cooperation among culturally similar people?-ancient Greeks uniting to fend off the invading Perseans. Nor do international movie casts seem all that novel.

Yes modern communications and transportation bridge intercontinental distances. But these distances were first bridged by wooden sailing ships. And the British Commonwealth could be thought of as a prototype for Bennett's proposed Network Commonwealth. Perhaps the changes are really a matter of degree rather than of kind. That is, perhaps we are beginning to see an intensity of contact that may have already occurred among more compact groupings of countries.

(~*~)







Post#41 at 03-04-2004 08:54 AM by Tim Walker '56 [at joined Jun 2001 #posts 24]
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Speculation

I have wondered if, in addition to the sorts of international ties that we have seen before, subcultures might link up. The Cultural Creatives?

(~*~)







Post#42 at 03-04-2004 10:24 AM by Virgil K. Saari [at '49er, north of the Mesabi Mountains joined Jun 2001 #posts 7,835]
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Re: Bennett's Network Commonwealth

Quote Originally Posted by Tim Walker
Quoting Bennett:

"The emergence of the Network Commonwealth as a potential form of political, social and economic organization is driven by three emerging realities.

"First, the basis of the world economy is changing from manufacturing to information....

"Second, physical space is no longer the most important factor in political association. Cultural space is....

"Finally, cooperation is proportional to communication as complexity increases. Meaningful, thorough and successful cooperation is most easily accomplished among those who can communicate with the most depth and clarity--namely, those who share language, a set of political assumptions or common moral ideas...."

The Network Commonwealth "facilitates the movement of people, goods and services across borders, forming and strengthening shared cultures (both elite and popular) and experiences--for example, common publications read by the publics of all of the nations of a particular network civilization. In turn, this lays the foundation for greater institutional cooperation (in the form of common markets, permanent security alliances and joint scientific and technological projects). A Network Commonwealth would build on these existing forms of transnational cooperation and thus emerge along existing information-oriented lines of linguistic and cultural affinity. It would be defined by close trading relationships and substantial military cooperation and intelligence-sharing among its constituent states, as well as a high degree of intra-network flows of migration and investment."
Been there, done that. The Bishop of Rome's organization in say 1600.







Post#43 at 07-23-2004 08:38 PM by Tim Walker '56 [at joined Jun 2001 #posts 24]
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The era of Contending States, I believe, would be China's version of a Time of Troubles as defined by Arnold Toynbee. The stage after that is the Universal State/Universal Empire of a civilization.

In A Study of History Toynbee wrote:

"...There might also be a period of partial recovery in the middle of the time of troubles. If we allow for one signal recovery during the time of troubles and one signal relapse during the lifetime of the universal state, that will give us the formula: rout-rally-rout-rally-rout-rally-rout, which we may describe as three-and-a-half 'beats' of our rout-rally rhythm."

Re: Graeco-Roman history:

"...The breakdown of the Hellenic Societ can be dated with peculiar exactness at 431 B.C. and the establishment of its universal state by Augustus at 31 B.C., four hundred years later. Can we discern a movement of rally-and-relapse anywhere in the course of those four centuries? Undoubtedly we can. One of its symptoms is the social gospel of Homonia or Concord preached by Timoleon at Syracuse and in a far wider sphere by Alexander the Great, both in the second half of the fourth century B.C. Another symptom is the conception of the Cosmopolis or World Commonwealth, popularized by the philospophers Zeno and Epicurus and their disciples. A third is the crop of constitutional experiments-the Seleucid Empire, the Achaean and Aetolian Confederacies and the Roman Republic-which were all of them attempts to transcend the traditional sovereignty of the city-state...It was a rally that failed, mainly because the new enlarged political units, though they did successfully trnscend the limits of the individual city-state, proved as intolerant and uncooperative in their relations with one another as had been the city-states themselves in fifth-century Greece, when they inaugurated the Hellenic breakdown by starting the Atheno-Peloponnesian War. We may date this second relapse or (what is the same thing) failure of the first rally at the opening of the Hannibalic War in 218 B.C...."







Post#44 at 07-23-2004 08:44 PM by Tim Walker '56 [at joined Jun 2001 #posts 24]
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Let us suppose that WWI/WWII could be described as a time of troubles for the West. The Millenial Saeculum would be a rally, and the European Union a constitutional experiment.







Post#45 at 01-08-2005 09:19 PM by Tim Walker '56 [at joined Jun 2001 #posts 24]
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new Minoan age?

Has the status of Western women been coming closer and closer to those of the ancient Minoan civilization?







Post#46 at 01-09-2005 10:32 AM by Prisoner 81591518 [at joined Mar 2003 #posts 2,460]
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Quote Originally Posted by Tim Walker
Let us suppose that WWI/WWII could be described as a time of troubles for the West. The Millenial Saeculum would be a rally, and the European Union a constitutional experiment.
I'm more inclined to see NATO as the West's nearest approximation of the 'Universal Empire' phase, and that with the breakdown of NATO, the West is moving into the initial stages of civilizational decline. (The 60s Awakening being the 'interim rout', followed by a 'rally' presided over by Reagan.)







Post#47 at 01-11-2005 01:46 AM by Zarathustra [at Where the Northwest meets the Southwest joined Mar 2003 #posts 9,198]
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Re: new Minoan age?

Quote Originally Posted by Tim Walker
Has the status of Western women been coming closer and closer to those of the ancient Minoan civilization?
This smacks of Marija Gimbutas. I wonder if Richard Hooker is a follower of hers.


As the Wikipedia article point out:

Gimbutas' forcefully expressed and speculative theories have been extended and embraced by a number of authors in the Neopagan movement, although her conclusions are generally considered highly speculative. Her critics instance grave goods as characterizing more familiar Neolithic gender roles, note early fortifications and criticize her emphasis on the few female figures among many male or asexual figures. Andrew Fleming, "The Myth of the Mother Goddess," (World Archaeology 1969) denied that Neolithic spirals, circles, and dots were symbols for eyes, that eyes, faces, and genderless figures were symbols of a female, or that female figures were symbols of a goddess. Peter Ucko even speculated that fertility figures were Neolithic dolls.
Americans have had enough of glitz and roar . . Foreboding has deepened, and spiritual currents have darkened . . .
THE FOURTH TURNING IS AT HAND.
See T4T, p. 253.







Post#48 at 01-14-2005 02:18 PM by Prisoner 81591518 [at joined Mar 2003 #posts 2,460]
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Seven Stages of Civilization

Prof. Carroll Quigley's Seven Civilizational Stages, as Applied (by Me) to Western Civilization:

********************

1. Mixture - Different societies (Greco-Roman, Syriac: read 'Christian', and Germanic) come into contact and produce a society with an outlook different from any of the parts. c. A.D. 300 - 700

2. Gestation - The period of time between the mixing of the different societies and the expansion of the civilization.
c. A.D. 700 - 1000

3. Expansion - The surplus generated by the society is invested in activities that benefit the civilization. This can include an increase in knowledge, increase in area, technological advancements that increase efficiency, etc. Civilizations have different instruments of expansion. He calls a social organization or unit an instrument if it meets social needs. c. A.D. 1000 - 1400

4. Age of Conflict - The rate of increase using the social instrument slows down which brings interesting times. The instrument can be reformed or a new instrument consistent with the civilization's outlook can circumvent the old instrument. If reform is achieved, a new age of expansion begins. If the vested interests of the previous instument of expansion increasingly consume resources while serving no social needs, Quigley says that the instrument has then become an institution. Expansion can continue, but it is at the expense of neighbors, which leads to imperialist wars. When the vested interests have crushed all internal opposition, the next stage appears. c. A.D. 1400 - 1900

5. Universal Empire - Typically a state or political unit on the periphery of the civilization (United States) gains power over the whole civilization. The illusion of a golden age appears. The social organization remains stagnant. c. A.D. 1900 - 2000

6. Decline - Failure of belief in the civilization's outlook or ability to meet needs of the people leads to people opting out of the system. c. A.D. 1900 - 2000

7. Invasion - External forces disrupt the civilization's social organization and it is unable or unwilling to defend itself. That spells the end of the civilization. c. A.D. 2000 - 2100?

********************

Needless to say, for the sake of clarity (as opposed to accuracy), I rounded off each phase to the nearest century. Also, I personally believe now that 'Stage Five' (Universal Empire) was, in the West's case, coincidental with a 'Stage Six' (Decline) which began even before the U.S. assumed the mantle of Western World Hegemon, thus insuring that the 'Universal Empire' phase would be a relatively brief one - actually spanning no more than the period from 1945 to no later than 2005, with the first signs that this was the case coming around 1965.







Post#49 at 01-14-2005 03:13 PM by Tom Mazanec [at NE Ohio 1958 joined Sep 2001 #posts 1,511]
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http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/BreakingNews.html

First article for Jan 14 is http://www.smh.com.au/news/Paul-Shee...?oneclick=true and is Titled "West rushing toward Dark Age"







Post#50 at 01-15-2005 02:24 PM by Tim Walker '56 [at joined Jun 2001 #posts 24]
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Carroll Quigley & the West

Quigley indicated that-quite unusually-the West went through Expansion thrice: 970-1300; 1420-1650; 1770-1929. Who is to say that it can't go into Expansion another time?

Or maybe part of the West. The EU seems like an attempt to create a Universal Empire in Europe.
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