Originally Posted by Tim Walker

Quigley indicated that-quite unusually-the West went through Expansion thrice: 970-1300; 1420-1650; 1770-1929. Who is to say that it can't go into Expansion another time?

Or maybe part of the West. The EU seems like an attempt to create a Universal Empire in Europe.

If anything, Europe is even further gone in decline than we are. Personally, I suspect that their future, for demographic and geographic reasons, will be Islamic. For that, I refer you to 'The Next Christendom', by Philip Jenkins, among other works on likely trends for this century. Not to mention the most crucial question to ask when a civilization is threatened: do it's people really feel - in their bones - that their way of life is still worth fighting and maybe dying for? For Islam (and also for Third World Christians), the answer is an unequivocal YES!!! Wherever the answer proves to be 'No' (which I suspect is the case for many in the West, especially in Europe), all the superweapons in the world will make little real difference in the end, except perhaps to delay the inevitable.

But the American part of the West, at least, is approaching a 4T, when the answer tends to be YES! With Islam having the same answer even now, this could be the Tenth Crusade (or whatever number).

************************************************** **************

Originally Posted by Sabinius Invictus

Originally Posted by Tim Walker

Let us suppose that WWI/WWII could be described as a time of troubles for the West. The Millenial Saeculum would be a rally, and the European Union a constitutional experiment.

I'm more inclined to see NATO as the West's nearest approximation of the 'Universal Empire' phase, and that with the breakdown of NATO, the West is moving into the initial stages of civilizational decline. (The 60s Awakening being the 'interim rout', followed by a 'rally' presided over by Reagan.)

If we're using the Spenglerian/Toynbeean sense of 'universal state', NATO would not qualify. The universal state phase is more than a military defense alliance, it's a political unification, based on a cultural exhaustion.

I do think Spengler and Toynbee were on to something, and I suspect we're actually in the West's 'Time of Troubles' or 'Era of Contending States'. The Chinese model might actually apply better. Our modern word 'China' derives from the Contending State of Ch'n, which conquered its neighbors to create the universal Chinese empire.

Of course, Rome created a similar empire by exhaustion as well.

Originally Posted by Tim Walker

Let us suppose that WWI/WWII could be described as a time of troubles for the West. The Millenial Saeculum would be a rally, and the European Union a constitutional experiment.

Toynbee thought World War I marked the beginning of the T of T in the West, whereas Spengler put the Napoleonic Wars (or perhaps more precisely the French and American Revolutions) as the start of the West's 'Era of Contending States'. The Spenglerian model would match Alexander the Great and Napoleon as 'parallels', and I think Spengler may have been onto something there.

If so, and if the parallels hold, the West's Caesars will be due in about 75-100 years.

Of course, there was this one French-Brazilian author back in the 90s who thought that the West's time for Caesars was already upon us, and that Clinton (and his immediate successors in the White House) would be those Caesars. He also cautioned that if certain problems weren't ironed out (with considerable help from Latin America), the resulting Universal Empire would be a short-lived fiasco.

@

Originally Posted by Sabinius Invictus

Of course, there was this one French-Brazilian author back in the 90s who thought that the West's time for Caesars was already upon us, and that Clinton (and his immediate successors in the White House) would be those Caesars. He also cautioned that if certain problems weren't ironed out (with considerable help from Latin America), the resulting Universal Empire would be a short-lived fiasco.

The trouble with that is that if we're trying to apply the historical models of Spengler and/or Toynbee, before the universal state phase can begin, a society has to reach a state of near-exhaustion with conventional international relations, internal relations, and all the associated matters. I see little sign that the West has reached any such state, though Europe might (or might not) be showing the earliest hints of it.

Originally Posted by HopefulCynic68

If so, and if the parallels hold, the West's Caesars will be due in about 75-100 years.

I read somewhere recently an article or discussion comparing our current situation to the Rome of around 120-100BC. They had just emerged as the undisputed power of the Meditteranean world after a long struggle, and then sank into around 100yrs of serious internal divisions, ultimately ending with Caesar Augustus in 20BC? I thought that plausible....when the thing that unifies a group is overcome, the group will start fighting with itself in order to define the new situation.

If that is where America is now, then it makes sense that in 75-100 yrs we will see the new Caesars.

Havig had my head in Roman history of that period for a while, I agree: we're in the equivalent of their Dying Republic Saeculum.

Hideous thought: "And it came to pass that a decree went out from George W. Bush, that all the world should be taxed...."

Re: Millenial Saeculum and Dying Republic Saeculum

A big difference between the Roman turnings listed and ours...is that our Awakening was fairly normal. The Romans' Marian Awakening was described as Crisis like, with the proto-Prophets becoming Adaptives, and with the Nomads adopting the Prophet role during the Clodian Unraveling.

Unlike those Romans we have a fiery, older Prophet generation and a pragmatic Nomad generation, indeed, a ripe Crisis Constellation.

Originally Posted by Sabinius Invictus

Prof. Carroll Quigley's Seven Civilizational Stages, as Applied (by Me) to Western Civilization:

********************

1. Mixture - Different societies (Greco-Roman, Syriac: read 'Christian', and Germanic) come into contact and produce a society with an outlook different from any of the parts. c. A.D. 300 - 700

2. Gestation - The period of time between the mixing of the different societies and the expansion of the civilization.
c. A.D. 700 - 1000

3. Expansion - The surplus generated by the society is invested in activities that benefit the civilization. This can include an increase in knowledge, increase in area, technological advancements that increase efficiency, etc. Civilizations have different instruments of expansion. He calls a social organization or unit an instrument if it meets social needs. c. A.D. 1000 - 1400

4. Age of Conflict - The rate of increase using the social instrument slows down which brings interesting times. The instrument can be reformed or a new instrument consistent with the civilization's outlook can circumvent the old instrument. If reform is achieved, a new age of expansion begins. If the vested interests of the previous instument of expansion increasingly consume resources while serving no social needs, Quigley says that the instrument has then become an institution. Expansion can continue, but it is at the expense of neighbors, which leads to imperialist wars. When the vested interests have crushed all internal opposition, the next stage appears. c. A.D. 1400 - 1900

5. Universal Empire - Typically a state or political unit on the periphery of the civilization (United States) gains power over the whole civilization. The illusion of a golden age appears. The social organization remains stagnant. c. A.D. 1900 - 2000

6. Decline - Failure of belief in the civilization's outlook or ability to meet needs of the people leads to people opting out of the system. c. A.D. 1900 - 2000

7. Invasion - External forces disrupt the civilization's social organization and it is unable or unwilling to defend itself. That spells the end of the civilization. c. A.D. 2000 - 2100?

********************

Needless to say, for the sake of clarity (as opposed to accuracy), I rounded off each phase to the nearest century. Also, I personally believe now that 'Stage Five' (Universal Empire) was, in the West's case, coincidental with a 'Stage Six' (Decline) which began even before the U.S. assumed the mantle of Western World Hegemon, thus insuring that the 'Universal Empire' phase would be a relatively brief one - actually spanning no more than the period from 1945 to no later than 2005, with the first signs that this was the case coming around 1965.

Having read the book, and having thus corroborated Tim Walker's mention of three separate Expansions, and three separate Ages of Conflict, I can now postulate a timeline for the West that runs as follows:

1. Mixture: 360 - 570 A.D.

2. Gestation: 570 - 970 A.D.

3. 1st Expansion: 970 - 1270 A.D.

4. 1st Time of Troubles: 1270 - 1440 A.D.

5. 2nd Expansion: 1440 - 1650 A.D.

6. 2nd Time of Troubles: 1650 - 1740 A.D.

7. 3rd Expansion: 1740 - 1890 A.D.

8. 3rd Time of Troubles: 1890 - 1950 A.D.

9. Universal Empire (NATO): 1950 - 1970 A.D. ?

10. Decay: 1970 (or 1950?) - Present

The ambiguity shown above is reflected on page Ninety of 'The Evolution of Civilizations', in which Quigley admitted that a civilization could pass straight from it's 'Time of Troubles' straight into 'Decay' without passing through an intervening 'Universal Empire' Phase. If one does exclude the idea of NATO being the West's nearest approximation to a Universal Empire, then it is very likely that this in fact is the case for the West. Comparing what I see in present-day Western Civilization to the symptoms Quigley lists for the Decay Phase (page Eighty-Eight), the correlation seems to grow with each passing decade, starting with the 60s, with ever-increasing economic upheaval, ever-increasing conflict between various vested interests, ever-declining levels of education, the growing deligitimation of every aspect of the society, the growth of new religious movements, and a growing reluctance to fight for the society or even to support it by paying taxes. Admittedly each of these symptons is progressing at different rates of speed, and at times, one or two symptoms may appear to be slowed, or even reversed, but nonetheless, I believe my analysis to be a valid one.

If this is the case, when might the Invasion Phase be reasonably expected to kick in? All I can say to that is that if it doesn't do so during this (coming) 4T, it will certainly do so during the next (circa 2100), with the 'barbarians' most likely coming from various parts of the 'Third World'. (Latin America for the US and Canada, Middle East for Europe, Indonesia for Australia and New Zealand.). One probable result of this will be a rebirth of monotheistic religion in the areas thus overrun, as each of those areas is currently experiencing a Christian or Islamic revival of major proportions.

BTW, on page Thirty-Seven, Quigley describes the Orthodox Civilization, of which Byzantium was probably the Gestation Phase, as having gone through it's Universal Empire Phase under the aegis of the Soviet Union, from 1920 to 1990, which would unquestionably place that civilization in it's Decay Phase now. Their 'barbarians' will in all probability be of Islamic and Chinese origin, and will in all probability strike during the same time frame - with an even greater probability of success than would be the case vis-a-vis the West.

I dug up a photocopy of Quigley's material. Included is a table listing periods of Expansion for Western Civilization:

1st period 970-1300

(gap of 120 years)

2nd period 1420-1650

(gap of 120 years)

3rd period 1770-1929


Projecting 120 years forward from 1929 gets us to the year 2049. If we should get through the 4T OK, then presumably Western Civilization has a chance to resume growth up to the middle of the century.

(It might help a bit if, as I expect, the next Awakening is relatively mild).

Originally Posted by Tim Walker

I dug up a photocopy of Quigley's material. Included is a table listing periods of Expansion for Western Civilization:

1st period 970-1300

(gap of 120 years)

2nd period 1420-1650

(gap of 120 years)

3rd period 1770-1929


Projecting 120 years forward from 1929 gets us to the year 2049. If we should get through the 4T OK, then presumably Western Civilization has a chance to resume growth up to the middle of the century.

(It might help a bit if, as I expect, the next Awakening is relatively mild).

Dear Tim,

By 2049, computers will be running the world.

John

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Originally Posted by Tim Walker

I dug up a photocopy of Quigley's material. Included is a table listing periods of Expansion for Western Civilization:

1st period 970-1300

(gap of 120 years)

2nd period 1420-1650

(gap of 120 years)

3rd period 1770-1929


Projecting 120 years forward from 1929 gets us to the year 2049. If we should get through the 4T OK, then presumably Western Civilization has a chance to resume growth up to the middle of the century.

(It might help a bit if, as I expect, the next Awakening is relatively mild).

Dear Tim,

By 2049, computers will be running the world.

John

Unless we are indeed plunged into another Dark Ages (Era of Mixing and Gestation for a new civilization?) this 4T. As for Tim Walker's contention that we will enter a 4th Expansion, I wish I could believe that. Unfortunately, I see only too clearly the signs that ours is a decaying civilization, as I listed in my last post.

Also, speaking to John Xenakis' belief that computer technology will advance rapidly enough to produce a computer-dominated world by 2050, as a civilization decays, technological development slows to a crawl, if not a halt, as the vested interests of that civilization strangle it. Already we are seeing this in many other fields, like energy, transportation, space, and robotics. I believe that computer technology is likely to suffer a similar fate before the 4T is out.

Arnold Toynbee described the vested interests debilitating a civilization in A Study of History. According to his paradign, a civilization begins to deteriorate when its leadership-a Creative Minority-loses its creativity and ceases to lead. Instead, this group degenerates into a Dominant Minority which stays at top through power instead of merit. (A recent issue of The Economist had an article about America's fading meritocracy).

On the other hand, Richard Florida wrote of The Rise of the Creative Class. In The Cultural Creatives Ray and Anderson indicated that at this point the West might either fall into a Dark Age or experience a Renaissance-with a new dark age being as likely as a renaissance.

Originally Posted by Tim Walker

Arnold Toynbee described the vested interests debilitating a civilization in A Study of History. According to his paradigm, a civilization begins to deteriorate when its leadership-a Creative Minority-loses its creativity and ceases to lead. Instead, this group degenerates into a Dominant Minority which stays at top through power instead of merit.

Indeed. Just what we see happening now in the West.

I dunno. The author of The Spike (his term for the Singularity) basically agreed with you, though he wrote that this might be delayed a few centuries.

Originally Posted by Tim Walker

I dunno. The author of The Spike (his term for the Singularity) basically agreed with you, though he wrote that this might be delayed a few centuries.

I don't forsee the Singularity being possible in this century.

As far as I know, until we truly understand the human mind to perfect precision, we are unable to replicate such capabilities by artificial means, regardless of Moore's Law or how randomly creative we can be.

Dear Titus,

Originally Posted by Sabinius Invictus

> Unless we are indeed plunged into another Dark Ages (Era of Mixing
> and Gestation for a new civilization?) this 4T. As for Tim
> Walker's contention that we will enter a 4th Expansion, I wish I
> could believe that. Unfortunately, I see only too clearly the
> signs that ours is a decaying civilization, as I listed in my last
> post.

> Also, speaking to John Xenakis' belief that computer technology
> will advance rapidly enough to produce a computer-dominated world
> by 2050, as a civilization decays, technological development slows
> to a crawl, if not a halt, as the vested interests of that
> civilization strangle it. Already we are seeing this in many other
> fields, like energy, transportation, space, and robotics. I
> believe that computer technology is likely to suffer a similar
> fate before the 4T is out.

This is completely off base, and bizarrely so. Nothing like this has
ever happened at any time in history, and nothing like this will
happen now.

• (*) The Dept. of Defense and the Dept. of Energy have very
  aggressive technology development programs. These programs are
  considered as critical as the Manhattan Project in WW II. They will
  all be well-funded, and the work will be done in highly protected
  research labs. So America will continue to be in the forefront of
  this technology development.
  
• (*) Even if the American effort were crippled, America hardly has
  a monopoly any more. It used to be that students had to come to
  America to learn advanced science and technology, but that's not true
  anymore. Advanced science and technology is now being taught in
  China, India and Europe, and they're turning out huge streams of
  trained graduates. These countries will also be treating
  super-intelligent computer technology as critical to national
  survival. They might even beat us to it.

I know we've had this conversation before, but there's no way that
technology development is about to go dead.

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com

Dear Andy,

Originally Posted by Andy '85

> I don't forsee the Singularity being possible in this century.

> As far as I know, until we truly understand the human mind to
> perfect precision, we are unable to replicate such capabilities by
> artificial means, regardless of Moore's Law or how randomly
> creative we can be.

This is completely untrue. With faster computers we can make
computers more intelligent than humans without knowing the human mind
to perfect precision. We already have computers that can add numbers
faster than humans can, even though we don't know with perfect
precision how human minds add numbers, and we can do the same with
other things. I've already posted a rough algorithm in another
thread.
http://fourthturning.com/forums/view...?p=93588#93588

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Originally Posted by Tim Walker

I dug up a photocopy of Quigley's material. Included is a table listing periods of Expansion for Western Civilization:

1st period 970-1300

(gap of 120 years)

2nd period 1420-1650

(gap of 120 years)

3rd period 1770-1929


Projecting 120 years forward from 1929 gets us to the year 2049. If we should get through the 4T OK, then presumably Western Civilization has a chance to resume growth up to the middle of the century.

(It might help a bit if, as I expect, the next Awakening is relatively mild).

Dear Tim,

By 2049, computers will be running the world.

John

Not likely, as we've already been over. It would take major non-linear breakthroughs in several aspects of computer science for that to even be possible.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Dear Titus,

Originally Posted by Sabinius Invictus

> Unless we are indeed plunged into another Dark Ages (Era of Mixing
> and Gestation for a new civilization?) this 4T. As for Tim
> Walker's contention that we will enter a 4th Expansion, I wish I
> could believe that. Unfortunately, I see only too clearly the
> signs that ours is a decaying civilization, as I listed in my last
> post.

> Also, speaking to John Xenakis' belief that computer technology
> will advance rapidly enough to produce a computer-dominated world
> by 2050, as a civilization decays, technological development slows
> to a crawl, if not a halt, as the vested interests of that
> civilization strangle it. Already we are seeing this in many other
> fields, like energy, transportation, space, and robotics. I
> believe that computer technology is likely to suffer a similar
> fate before the 4T is out.

This is completely off base, and bizarrely so. Nothing like this has
ever happened at any time in history,

On the contrary, every major civilization has experienced slowing technological change in its later centuries. Usually there is a period of rapid change, in which the major technologies characteristic of a civiliation are established, followed by a long period of slow, incremental change.

The reasons why this tends to happen are not clear, though I suspect that full political unification is one contributing factor, since a unified civilization's ruling faction has a vested interested in the status quo.

In Classical Civilization, for ex, the Roman Empire showed a much slower level of technological change than the Republican Period.

[*](*) The Dept. of Defense and the Dept. of Energy have very
aggressive technology development programs. These programs are
considered as critical as the Manhattan Project in WW II. They will
all be well-funded, and the work will be done in highly protected
research labs. So America will continue to be in the forefront of
this technology development.

Even so, the rate of technological change has already slowed considerably compared to what it was even 75 years ago. For example, the social and economic changes brought about by the internal-combustion engine, the telephone, steam trains, the airplane, etc, dwarf the impact of information technology, space flight, or most (to date) biotechnology (though biotech is an area where major, revolutionary changes remain distinctly possible).

Most of the technological advancement of the last 50 years has been more evolutionary than revolutionary, though one can hope that will change.

I know we've had this conversation before, but there's no way that
technology development is about to go dead.

Dead, no. It's already slowed considerably, however, for reasons that are not altogether clear.

Originally Posted by HopefulCynic68

In Classical Civilization, for ex, the Roman Empire showed a much slower level of technological change than the Republican Period...

Even so, the rate of technological change has already slowed considerably compared to what it was even 75 years ago.

How do you measure this?

For example, the social and economic changes brought about by the internal-combustion engine, the telephone, steam trains, the airplane, etc, dwarf the impact of information technology, space flight, or most (to date) biotechnology (though biotech is an area where major, revolutionary changes remain distinctly possible)

Most of the technological advancement of the last 50 years has been more evolutionary than revolutionary, though one can hope that will change.

I point out a technological development that led to very radical change in the last 50 years--birth control pills. This development wrought immense change. The world of today is at least as different from that of the 1950's as the 1950's was from that of the 1900's. Look at changes in family structure.

Agreed that biotechnology could concievably cause further radical change.

Other technologies, such as micromachines or space flight, might well result in incremental or perhaps substantial change during this century.

Information technology might cause further incremental or substantial change, perhaps including weak forms of AI (Artificial Intelligence). Going beyond a weak AI would take us towards a Singularity.

Artificial atoms are experimental at this point. Perhaps they may result in substantial change or even a technological revolution.

The concept of Fractal Robots-a half way house between present technology & nanotechnology. These would be modular, shape changing machines.

Updating old, half forgotten technologies (dirigibles are my favorite).

Assembling existings technologies in new combinations (telephones + tape recorders gave us answering machines, for example).

There are theoretical technologies which could take us to a singularity. These include Artificial Intelligence, uploading, nanotechnology.