Originally Posted by Sabinus Invictus

On page 163, Prof. Quigley wrote, "But in theory it is at least conceivable that the competing states of Stage 4 might just fight each other down and down to lower and lower levels of prosperity and public order without one emerging triumphant over all the others. In such a case, Stage 5 might be omitted, and the civilization would pass directly from Stage 4 to Stage 6 (Age of Conflict to Decay) without achieving any Universal Empire."

If one rejects the idea of NATO as the nearest approximation to Universal Empire the West will ever achieve, then it seems to me that one should be open to the idea that Western Civilization will devolve in the manner described in the quote above - especially since there is a slight matter of the Atlantic Ocean separating the core area of Western Civilization from it's most powerful peripheral state, and thereby rendering the sort of power projection needed to establish a genuine Universal Empire very close to problematical, in either direction - as the British found out in 1775-1783, and as we would have found out during World War II had Britain not been available as an ally willing to serve as, among other things, a relatively secure forward staging area for our forces sent to Europe. And given the growing rift between the US and the EU, if the Atlantic Ocean effectively prevents either from gaining a clear, lasting triumph over the other, then such a course of devolution becomes that much more possible.

As for a 4th Expansion Phase, I'm afraid I just can't see that happening, and haven't been able to since the last 2T, when the very idea of another Expansion Phase was anathematized in many circles as being 'politically incorrect' at best. (From an environmentalist/Malthusian POV, especially.)

I think you are using a too-restrictive defintion of empire. A land empire like the British Empire costs more the maintain than it is worth. Pursuing such an empire is folly. The financial empire that the US actually has is not so counterproductive.

Consider, "Emperor" Bush II is able to fight a war with the Semite tribes in Mesopotamia with the entire cost bourne by the provinces of China and Japan. He must, of course, employ American legions, but so far this has not been a problem. At the same time the provinces labor hard to produce surplus production which is given to the Americans. As a result of this tribute American consumers enjoy a wide array of high quality goods at low prices.

The comparisons are not exact by any means, but I would say the current setup is at least an imperial as NATO and certainly more beneficial to America than NATO ever was. After all, membership as a province is largely voluntary, which certainly saves on military costs. If China, for example, wished to leave the Empire they are free to go. Obviously there is no way we keep them in the empire by force, but they appear to be content with their status and the tribute (more and more each year) continues to flow.

In fact if you compare China to Iraq, which we recently added to the empire as territory via military conquest, you would see that the province of Iraq has been and continues to be a drain on Imperial resources. We would be well advised to not permanently incorporate Iraq into the Empire.

I suppose it is possible (though I think unlikely) that our emperor may wish for the appellation "the Great" and may attempt additional conquests in Persia, Syria or elsewhere for the glory of it.

Originally Posted by Arkham '80

I disagree, somewhat. The World Wars and Cold War were, in my estimation, contemporary (in the Spenglerian sense of the word) with the Punic Wars of Classical history. The Kennedy brothers compare with the Gracchi, Nixon with Sulla, Bush II with Pompey (substitute the "war on terror" for the campaigns against the Cilician pirates). The Western Caeser is due to arrive sometime during the next Crisis. If history rhymes -- as it tends to do -- he will complete the transition of the United States from republic to empire and then pass abruptly from the scene, leaving his heirs to solidify the new imperial system and inaugurate a resurgence of American global power. I expect that a truly universal Western empire will emerge during the Crisis of 2100 (comparable to the emergence of the Pax Romana during the first century AD), that it will peak about a century later, and then will begin to decline steadily, terminating with the crackup of the first planetary government sometime in the 26th century.

I'm not even ready to go that far. If history really rhymes, we don't have near enough involvement with the 'provinces' to fully transfer to an Empire yet. The 'let's leave the world alone' sentiment is still too strong in America to go fully Imperial. I expect the "universal empire" -- actually a hybrid of federation and empire -- in the Crisis of 2180, not 2100, although the outlines of it and the trajectory toward it will be clear by the 2100 crisis. I agree about the Golden Age of the Terran Federation being the twenty-second through twenty-sixth centuries. By that time the playing field should include most of the solar system if not more.

It seems that once a civilization has existed long enough it begins to view its works from an earlier, more creative age as The Classics.

For the West this would include the plays of Shakespeare, but may soon include, for example, Classical Music.

re: the Kassite period:

"...Such was the prestige of Mesopotamian literature in the ancient Near East that it was adopted in many countries from Anatolia to Egypt: the Epic of Gilgamesh, for instance, was translated into Hittite and Hurrian, and copies of Babylonia legends were found on the banks of the Nile. Moreover, the Babylonian language was lingua franca in all Oriental courts and diplomatic circles thoughout the second half of the second millennium, at a time when Babylonia was, politically speaking, almost inactive. Thus if in the new international concert Mesopotamia played only third or fourth fiddle, she still ranked very high in the field of civilization."

Originally Posted by Tim Walker

It seems that once a civilization has existed long enough it begins to view its works from an earlier, more creative age as The Classics.

For the West this would include the plays of Shakespeare, but may soon include, for example, Classical Music.

In fact, I think it already does, at least the earlier material.

One other measure of what might constitute 'The Classics' for the West: which creative material from earlier times is condemned nowadays by the 'Politically Correct'?

Originally Posted by Tim Walker

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When you post that long string of asterisks, there is no referent or link.

Originally Posted by Idiot Girl

Originally Posted by Tim Walker

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When you post that long string of asterisks, there is no referent or link.

I think it's his way of deleting a post. :wink:

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@

@

Originally Posted by Tim Walker

@

Yep, I gotta agree, @ is the The Greatest Cycle-Rebirth Of A Civilization. 8), dude.

@ what point does the general public say No! to the elites?

Originally Posted by Tim Walker

Arnold Toynbee (writing in different editions of A Study of History) had viewed Babylon as a second generation civilization, derived from Mesopotamia. Then Toynbee concluded that Babylon was an extension of Mesopotamia, being Mesopotamian in its inspiration.

When Toynbee compared Hammurabi to Diocletian, something clicked into place. Babylon could be compared to the Byzantine Empire.

After a period of decay, but not complete collapse, a regime resembling the old order comes to power. The literature, the history, the memory of the past is carefully preserved.

The language of Byzantium is Greek rather than Latin. That of Babylon is Akkadian rather than Sumeric.

There is a revival of religion, but the religion differs from the past. Substantially altered in character, religion in Babylon tended towards monotheism. In Byzantium the secular world view was replaced by Christianity, not the old Olympian pantheon.

Other changes...details, details.

Interesting though it is, this kind of societal change doesn't seem likely for a 21st century West.

Perhaps Latin America will perforce step into the role of Orthodox (Byzantine/Russian) civilization to the West's Classical (Greco-Roman) World, as El Norte is gradually Hispanicized over the course of this century.

The heirs to the west will be a pan-american civilization lead by The US, Mexico and Brazil, a revived chinese civilization(once its done casting off communism) and India. Europe will end up stagnant under the islamic heel for a LONG time.

Originally Posted by Straha

The heirs to the west will be a pan-American civilization lead by The US, Mexico and Brazil, a revived Chinese civilization (once its done casting off Communism) and India. Europe will end up stagnant under the Islamic heel for a LONG time.

Sounds about right, if you treat the US as a conquered land under the heel of said pan-American civilization.

@

Originally Posted by Prisoner 81591518

Originally Posted by Straha

The heirs to the west will be a pan-American civilization lead by The US, Mexico and Brazil, a revived Chinese civilization (once its done casting off Communism) and India. Europe will end up stagnant under the Islamic heel for a LONG time.

Sounds about right, if you treat the US as a conquered land under the heel of said pan-American civilization.

Won't happen. Europe will explode as the biggest tinderbox that ever was... soon as they get rid of their own Silent population. Get ready for massacres of European Muslims by the thousands. They aren't going to become another Medeival Spain.

And the U.S... we'll simply default on all those Chinese loans, accept a drastically reduced standard of living like we did during WW2, start manufacturing our own goods again using good old-fashioned coal as fuel. If the Reds come knocking, demanding payment, we'll nuke them off the friggin' globe... we still have many, many more missiles, and far more accurate ones, than they do.

Originally Posted by Roadbldr '59

Originally Posted by Prisoner 81591518

Originally Posted by Straha

The heirs to the west will be a pan-American civilization lead by The US, Mexico and Brazil, a revived Chinese civilization (once its done casting off Communism) and India. Europe will end up stagnant under the Islamic heel for a LONG time.

Sounds about right, if you treat the US as a conquered land under the heel of said pan-American civilization.

Won't happen. Europe will explode as the biggest tinderbox that ever was... soon as they get rid of their own Silent population. Get ready for massacres of European Muslims by the thousands. They aren't going to become another Medeival Spain.

And the U.S... we'll simply default on all those Chinese loans, accept a drastically reduced standard of living like we did during WW2, start manufacturing our own goods again using good old-fashioned coal as fuel. If the Reds come knocking, demanding payment, we'll nuke them off the friggin' globe... we still have many, many more missiles, and far more accurate ones, than they do.

I wish I could believe you, as opposed to Straha. Unfortunately, you're predicting the sort of 4T Ragnarok which the Left would never accept because it would end by dragging down our enemies with us, instead of leaving said enemies standing tall at the end.

Originally Posted by Prisoner 81591518

Originally Posted by Roadbldr '59

And the U.S... we'll simply default on all those Chinese loans, accept a drastically reduced standard of living like we did during WW2, start manufacturing our own goods again using good old-fashioned coal as fuel. If the Reds come knocking, demanding payment, we'll nuke them off the friggin' globe... we still have many, many more missiles, and far more accurate ones, than they do.

I wish I could believe you, as opposed to Straha. Unfortunately, you're predicting the sort of 4T Ragnarok which the Left would never accept because it would end by dragging down our enemies with us, instead of leaving said enemies standing tall at the end.

Who says the American Left is strong enough to actually make that happen? Not me!

Originally Posted by The Pervert

Originally Posted by Prisoner 81591518

Originally Posted by Roadbldr '59

And the U.S... we'll simply default on all those Chinese loans, accept a drastically reduced standard of living like we did during WW2, start manufacturing our own goods again using good old-fashioned coal as fuel. If the Reds come knocking, demanding payment, we'll nuke them off the friggin' globe... we still have many, many more missiles, and far more accurate ones, than they do.

I wish I could believe you, as opposed to Straha. Unfortunately, you're predicting the sort of 4T Ragnarok which the Left would never accept because it would end by dragging down our enemies with us, instead of leaving said enemies standing tall at the end.

Who says the American Left is strong enough to actually make that happen? Not me!

As we really get into the 4t and more X'ers make their way into political leadership, necessity will burn away all of the cultural dross built up in the 2t and 3t putting the focus on economics. Don't be surprised if the left turns a lot more pragmatic and success orented, however that is defined by the prevailing conditions, than the current sterotype of the politically correct limp wristed wimp would lead one to believe. Remember, the incoherent and inept Democrats of the 1920's evolved into the "kick butt" new dealers of the 1930's. :!:

Originally Posted by Truth '61

Originally Posted by The Pervert

Originally Posted by Prisoner 81591518

Originally Posted by Roadbldr '59

And the U.S... we'll simply default on all those Chinese loans, accept a drastically reduced standard of living like we did during WW2, start manufacturing our own goods again using good old-fashioned coal as fuel. If the Reds come knocking, demanding payment, we'll nuke them off the friggin' globe... we still have many, many more missiles, and far more accurate ones, than they do.

I wish I could believe you, as opposed to Straha. Unfortunately, you're predicting the sort of 4T Ragnarok which the Left would never accept because it would end by dragging down our enemies with us, instead of leaving said enemies standing tall at the end.

Who says the American Left is strong enough to actually make that happen? Not me!

As we really get into the 4t and more X'ers make their way into political leadership, necessity will burn away all of the cultural dross built up in the 2t and 3t putting the focus on economics. Don't be surprised if the left turns a lot more pragmatic and success orented, however that is defined by the prevailing conditions, than the current sterotype of the politically correct limp wristed wimp would lead one to believe. Remember, the incoherent and inept Democrats of the 1920's evolved into the "kick butt" new dealers of the 1930's. :!:

Oh, I agree. It's just that a revitalized American Left focused on practical, economic concerns would be a different Left from the one that Prisoner is concerned about. The kind of Left who would do what he fears is an impractical, idealistic, cultural, transnationalist Left, not the same kind that you're talking about at all. It is, however, the kind of Left that Hopeful Cynic dislikes.

:idea:

Maybe Prisoner and Hopeful Cynic should pay more attention to each other!

Originally Posted by The Pervert

Originally Posted by Truth '61

Originally Posted by The Pervert

Originally Posted by Prisoner 81591518

Originally Posted by Roadbldr '59

And the U.S... we'll simply default on all those Chinese loans, accept a drastically reduced standard of living like we did during WW2, start manufacturing our own goods again using good old-fashioned coal as fuel. If the Reds come knocking, demanding payment, we'll nuke them off the friggin' globe... we still have many, many more missiles, and far more accurate ones, than they do.

I wish I could believe you, as opposed to Straha. Unfortunately, you're predicting the sort of 4T Ragnarok which the Left would never accept because it would end by dragging down our enemies with us, instead of leaving said enemies standing tall at the end.

Who says the American Left is strong enough to actually make that happen? Not me!

As we really get into the 4t and more X'ers make their way into political leadership, necessity will burn away all of the cultural dross built up in the 2t and 3t putting the focus on economics. Don't be surprised if the left turns a lot more pragmatic and success orented, however that is defined by the prevailing conditions, than the current sterotype of the politically correct limp wristed wimp would lead one to believe. Remember, the incoherent and inept Democrats of the 1920's evolved into the "kick butt" new dealers of the 1930's. :!:

Oh, I agree. It's just that a revitalized American Left focused on practical, economic concerns would be a different Left from the one that Prisoner is concerned about. The kind of Left who would do what he fears is an impractical, idealistic, cultural, transnationalist Left, not the same kind that you're talking about at all. It is, however, the kind of Left that Hopeful Cynic dislikes.

:idea:

Maybe Prisoner and Hopeful Cynic should pay more attention to each other!

Thanks for summing it up. I'm fairly new here but that discription makes sense from what I've read from HC and prisoner.

re: Spongler's concept of 'pseudomorphosis'

"...Since the fifteenth century of the Christian Era, Islam has captured Indonesia. In this case, the conversion has been accomplished by peaceful missionary enterprise, not by force of arms, and therefore has not provoked the militant opposition that it did arouse among Hindus in India. Nevertheless, Islam in Indonesia has not succeeded in supplanting, below the surface, the Indian culture-Hindu and Buddhist-which had been paramount in Indonesia for more than a thousand years before Islam's arrival there. A present-day Indonesian Muslim reminds himself of his Hindu cultural heritage by assuming a Sanskrit name in conjunction with his Arabic one; and he celebrates the Prophet Muhammad's birthday (the Mawlid) by entertaining himself with puppetplays in which the characters are the heroes of the Mahabharata. Here we can watch the Indian culture, which the Indonesians have never ceased to cherish, breaking through an Islamic veneer. The Islamic surface of present-day Indonesian culture is, in fact, a 'pseudomorphosis'. But so, to, was the Indian culture which preceded Islam in Indonesia and the Malay Peninsula and which, in the Hinayanian Buddhist version of it, is still paramount on the South-East Asian mainland in Burma, Thailand, and Cambodia.

"...In South-East Asia the dissemination of Indian culture, like the later dissemination of Islam in the insular and peninsular parts of the region, was a peaceful process. But the Indian Civilization in South-East Asia experienced the same fortune that Islam experienced there later. The Indian Civilization, too, failed to supplant the previously prevailing local cultures. Below the surface these continud to hold their own. In South-East Asia the exotic forms of Indian architecture, art, and religion have been adapted to express a native South-East Asian content."

"...The first non-Western societies to be Westernized were the Middle American and the Andean. By now, they have been nominally Western and Christian for more than four hundred years. Yet today, in the highlands of Guatemala and on the Las Casa plateau in the adjoining corner of Mexico, one can see Christian churches being used for the celebration of Pre-Christian rites by an unsophisticated peasantry...In Mexico City one can see the motifs and the spirit of the same Pre-Christian religion being resuscitated by sophisticated painters and scultors trained in a Western school and using a Western technique...In Mexico, as in Indonesia, we seem to be witnessing the bankruptcy of a 'pseudomorphosis'."