Originally Posted by Tim Walker '56

Charles Kupchan presented a civilizational theory at the end of his book in a chapter entitled "The Rebirth of History." To summarize, as a society changes its way of making a living its organization and source of communal identity change with it. As it does so old institutions become de-ligitamized.#1 Nomadic. Hunter-gatherers. Approximate time-prior to 8000 BC. Organized as bands. Communal identity-animism.#2 Early agriculture. Hunting-gathering plus the beginnings of agriculture. Approximate time 8000-3000 BC. Organization-tribe, chiefdom. Communal identity-nature worship.#3 Agriculture. Approximate time 3000 BC-1700 AD. Organization in the form of kingdoms, coercive state. Communal identity-organized religion.#4 Industrial Capitalism. Approximate time 1700-2000 AD. Organization in the form of republics. Communal identity-nationalism. #5 Digital Capitalism. 2000? Organization? Communal identity?

I suspect that we are transitioning towards a situation analagous to #2, in which much of the old co-exists with novel features. People have tried to compare change to historical periods, but to the extent these features are relevant they may also co-exist with novel features as part of an amalgam..

Originally Posted by TimWalker

I suspect that we are transitioning towards a situation analagous to #2, in which much of the old co-exists with novel features. People have tried to compare change to historical periods, but to the extent these features are relevant they may also co-exist with novel features as part of an amalgam..

#5 Digital Capitalism. 2000? Organization? Communal identity?

Co-ops. The Earth.

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Higher visions of the future thread

The Cycle of Civilization

Philosophy, religion, science and turnings thread

One guess-the new Modern Epoch may (as described by historians in an even more distant Far Future Age) have Early and Late subdivisions. This would be similar to descriptions of earlier ages. If you think about it, the 500 year thing is a long time, even if the over-arching theme(s) still apply through the whole period. There could be substantial change before the epoch expires.

Renaissance Watch thread

Fermi thread

exotic civilization

OrionsArm

future of West thread

Type I thread

Iain Bank'sviews

Civilization V .

80 and 400 year cycles identified in Russia-scroll down

Neo-cubists

Sorokin indicated that cubist type art is the last expression of Sensate (secular) art. It expresses the idea of an object, rather than trying to be realistic. Of course, "Neo"-cubism comes some time after Picasso. So...could society be stuck in a sort of holding pattern?

Could society get stuck-perhaps with minor changes-but lacking dramatic change that would lead to a distinctive new era?

Sorokin again

Very good author, it appears, with a broad and balanced view and impressive research behind it. I was struck with this phrase which seems to apply to the "post-modern" outlook:

"The third type of sensate culture Sorokin calls "cynical" and involves the sensate mentality in an advanced state of nihilistic decadence, where the sensate ethos itself undermines its own claims to truth, and produces insincere hedonists and social climbers without conviction or redeeming merit."

The sensate vs ideational outlook certainly describes the up and down axis on the philosophy wheel, spiritualist vs. materialist, and his point is well taken on how thoroughly the world view predominant in a culture determines the activities and interests of the people in it.

I have been trying to figure out where we are going in terms of world views. Check out the table. Consider the Greaco-Roman transitional period. So...will the next couple centuries be a "mixed" period with several different world views co-existing?

If the core Cultural Creatives gel as an Idealistic group, then we would have three different world views co-existing...the new Idealism with an old Christian Ideational remnant and a cynical Sensate phase.

Like the Hellenistic Age, you could get several different spiritual currents...

Society would not be well integrated, but it might be an interesting time.