What if a loosely integrated state should prove to be long term? Consider Melko's isotope metaphor. Physicists have created short lived isotopes which may include exotic particles . Could a loosely integrated society include elements that it might otherwise not have had?

Originally Posted by TimWalker

Hittites again. The "Middle Kingdom", unfortunately, seems to be the period most akin to our present-our candle is wavering too. It occurred to me that this may be consistent with the sensation of a Mega-Unraveling. If I recall correctly, the Grey Badger placed the start of the mega-unraveling in the '70s, which included Malaise. The Middle Kingdom period lasted about a century-if you extrapolate, our Mega-Unraveling would last until the beginning of the next 3T.

I dissent from this forum's idea of a mega-unravelling, as you know. In any case it could not apply to the cycles that Sorokin and I are discussing, because a mega-saeculum is only about 330 years long.

But the middle kingdom would indeed correspond to the same house as our cycle on the great 4000-year cycle I mention in my book.

I mispoke-I used the term Mega-Unraveling as a convenience. Here is another opinion about where we are.

"...Sorokin has his three but there is a fourth stage, a kind of chaotic stage where realtiy is not fixed at any particular point..." Scroll down to Conclusion.

Been having difficulty in posting links. Anyway, Sorokin's sequence is: Ideational, Idealistic, Sensate, then repeat. But if I understand correctly, you could get a fourth stage in this sequence: Ideational, Idealistic, Sensate, chaotic. Not sure what to make of a chaotic phase. One consideration is that society still shows some vitality, so my initial assumption of decline/Decay may not hold.

Originally Posted by TimWalker

Been having difficulty in posting links. Anyway, Sorokin's sequence is: Ideational, Idealistic, Sensate, then repeat. But if I understand correctly, you could get a fourth stage in this sequence: Ideational, Idealistic, Sensate, chaotic. Not sure what to make of a chaotic phase. One consideration is that society still shows some vitality, so my initial assumption of decline/Decay may not hold.

Now, doesn't that sound an awful lot like "First Turning, Second Turning, Third Turning, and Fourth Turning?"

The Chaotic period would seem to correspond to an un-integrated civilization.

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Originally Posted by The Grey Badger

Now, doesn't that sound an awful lot like "First Turning, Second Turning, Third Turning, and Fourth Turning?"

No, not from 1 to 4. The first turning is definitely sensate, and it continues the 4th in that respect. The 2nd turning is ideational, and the 3T is more rigidly ideational. There is no idealistic turning; we just hurtle from one extreme to the other. I have written here before that this is exactly why our saecula are dysfunctional.

And remember, a saeculum is NOT a cycle of civilization. The dynamic and time span is different.

"Chaotic" usually just refers to the transition times, like our own and the 5th century. If instead we are entering an integrated or idealistic stage, it would be the first time we have reversed course and gone from sensate back to idealistic, instead of emerging from chaos into a new ideational stage. But it could happen. Our times are unique in many ways. That's the hopeful scenario.

Or instead, we may just stay in chaos. As Tim says, it would be chaos without decay, at least for a while. Chaos would mean in this case, just too much diversity among too many peoples and cultures to say that humanity as a whole has entered any of the stages. Since we are a world civilization now, and not Western or American Civilization any longer, it is harder to define all of humanity as being in a stage. So we just call it chaos, or better, diversity. It would not be mere chaos, indeed, since many people today definitely are ideational or sensate, or even integrated/idealistic. It just that none of them is able to rule over the whole world.

Originally Posted by TimWalker

Sorokin's sequence is: Ideational, Idealistic, Sensate, then repeat. But if I understand correctly, you could get a fourth stage in this sequence: Ideational, Idealistic, Sensate, chaotic. Not sure what to make of a chaotic phase. One consideration is that society still shows some vitality, so my initial assumption of decline/Decay may not hold.

Those 3 stages Sorokin described sound a lot like what Joseph Campbell often mentioned, when he spoke of a sequence of religious, political, economic, and atrributed them to much the same time periods as Sorokin does. Campbell spoke of the dominant building in a medieval town being the cathedral, a renaissance town being the palace, and a modern city being the bank/insurance company etc.

Not slipping into Decay is problematic. Consider a scenario in which a plutocracy becomes entrenched in an individual country, siuch as the USA.

If Decay should be staved off, it is concievable that the next couple centuries could be socially diverse. For example, several different spiritual currents. And I susect that is where cultural creativity will increasingly come from, as the old Sensate phase increasingly exhausts its possibilities.

Hints-what's going on in the background?

Quigley again.

The next 2T is expected to be of the Apollo type. If society is becoming loosely integrated, during a chaotic period, how will the next 2T play out?

Exotic particles? Concievably, another ethos: such as aesthetic, religious, or warrior. Or a novel spiritual current. Or a new ideology.

Regarding technology...the late Arthur C. Clark commented that people tend to overestimate what will be achieved in the short run, and underestimate what will be achieved in the long run (due to technological break throughs). So the material world may remain largely familiar for a considerable period.

Regarding Information Technology-came across a comment in the FutureTimeline forum that Moore's Law will reach its end in 2019. Still, with moderate change in displays/interfaces I expect that today's latest and greatest will seem dated during the next 1T. According to Dent, we should see a "ballroom dance" during the next 1T, in contrast to the rapid technological change and entrepreneurism of the recent 3T. Question-will the culmination of this IT result in social change that we haven't seen yet? Communications is a catalyst for human relations.

More than one author has pointed out that the Internet allows people to find each...people whose interests/ideas would be too obscure. So perhas we will see a new muliplicity of subcultures.

The digital age is still dependent on an analogue world. All we see, touch, taste, hear and feel is analogue. We are an analogue species trapping ourselves in a digital world of our own making. Digitisation is only ever used to measure and control. And report. And decide.

The above web site mentioned an alternative term to "Chaotic"-plastic time. Not sure what exactly that means. Perhaps a disintegrating society experiences Chaotic time, while plastic time is experienced by society if it is muddling through. But an implication is that the future may be even harder to predict than expected, particularly if this interregnum has more than one phase.

I think that the exotic atom metaphor would apply...if at least one Transhumanist goal started to come true. But that would make the future even harder to predict.

Exotic atom metaphor-for a greatly altered society. Based on Melko's isotope metaphor.

Western Civ forum.

Originally Posted by Coconutdog

The digital age is still dependent on an analogue world. All we see, touch, taste, hear and feel is analogue. We are an analogue species trapping ourselves in a digital world of our own making. Digitisation is only ever used to measure and control. And report. And decide.

One way of looking at it...is of a digital over lay of an analog world.