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Thread: The Greatest Cycle-Rebirth Of A Civilization - Page 22







Post#526 at 08-06-2013 07:10 PM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
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Quote Originally Posted by Chas'88 View Post
Him alone no, but considering that England had been in a Saxon civil war of sorts since 1051, all of a sudden it becomes one. Harold caused a lot of grief for Edward the Confessor before he died. The relationship between Edward the Confessor and Harold is strikingly similar to that of Henry VI and Edward IV four hundred years later. In that parallel, William the Conquerer is an older equivalent of Henry VII.

~Chas'88
I think Grey's point is good. I knew the change happened, though I'm not sure it was as traumatic as (s)he stated. Still, dynastic struggles among the Saxon kings, Danes and Normans were quite persistent over many decades, so these alone don't seem like a crisis. What makes a modern crisis more than "tournaments in the park" is the involvement of all the people in them. The conquest may have done that, although it was swift so I'm not sure there's an entire era we can call a "crisis." Conflicts among throne claimants alone though, is not like a modern crisis.
Last edited by Eric the Green; 08-07-2013 at 09:02 PM.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#527 at 08-06-2013 10:23 PM by Chas'88 [at In between Pennsylvania & Pennsyltucky joined Nov 2008 #posts 9,432]
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Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Green View Post
I think Grey's point is good. I knew the change happened, though I'm not sure it was as traumatic as he stated. Still, dynastic struggles among the Saxon kings, Danes and Normans were quite persistent over many decades, so these alone don't seem like a crisis. What makes a modern crisis more than "tournaments in the park" is the involvement of all the people in them. The conquest may have done that, although it was swift so I'm not sure there's an entire era we can call a "crisis." Conflicts among throne claimants alone though, is not like a modern crisis.
When you're raising armies amongst the people and pitching them against one another in a conflict that goes on for several years, it involved more than just the "throne claimnants".

As for what the Norman Invasion led to, as put in terms of comedy:



~Chas'88
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."







Post#528 at 08-07-2013 07:16 AM by Mikebert [at Kalamazoo MI joined Jul 2001 #posts 4,502]
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Quote Originally Posted by Chas'88 View Post
Him alone no, but considering that England had been in a Saxon civil war of sorts since 1051, all of a sudden it becomes one. Harold caused a lot of grief for Edward the Confessor before he died. The relationship between Edward the Confessor and Harold is strikingly similar to that of Henry VI and Edward IV four hundred years later. In that parallel, William the Conquerer is an older equivalent of Henry VII.
Very much so. Excellent observation.


I have a write up for the Norman Invasion crisis in England (1046-71) here. Chas is right. There is Butlerian spiral of violence (or implied violence) from the crisis of of 1051 to the death of Edward in 1066. Edward's death triggers a second spiral over three rivals for the throne, which was decided with finality over the 1066-1075 period. These two periods define a period of crisis in politics over 1051-1075. Politics is just one aspect of society. Economics is another. My building index measure implies a shift from tough economic times to better economic times around 1071. Finally there are the generations at play. In this particular crisis we have important players from the usual Nomad and Hero generations, but also some prophets too, in the early part. So we actually have a constellation of three adult generations who reach their characteristic phases of life of adulthood, mature adulthood (leader gen) and elderhood at age 26, 52 and 78. Adding these to the start dates for the preceding 3T, 2T and 1T gives 1042 for all three generations. This means the generations were in place for a crisis to begin as early as 1042. Sometime between 1042 and 1051 the turning flipped from 3T to 4T. I estimated a date by taking the average of the two (1046) and call this the start of the 4T. I do the same thing for the other end, except prophets are replaced by artists because the prophets have all died and some artists are now playing important roles.

Chas, in Terry Jones Medieval episode on the damsel they mention an elderly knight who comes to an elderly damsel in distress. That knight is one of the actors I have listed for the Magna Carta Awakening. And yeah that 70-year old playing Lancelot turns out to be a hero archetype. Sometimes this stuff really does fall into place.
Last edited by Mikebert; 08-07-2013 at 07:20 AM.







Post#529 at 08-07-2013 08:01 AM by The Grey Badger [at Albuquerque, NM joined Sep 2001 #posts 8,876]
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Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Green View Post
I think Grey's point is good. I knew the change happened, though I'm not sure it was as traumatic as he stated. Still, dynastic struggles among the Saxon kings, Danes and Normans were quite persistent over many decades, so these alone don't seem like a crisis. What makes a modern crisis more than "tournaments in the park" is the involvement of all the people in them. The conquest may have done that, although it was swift so I'm not sure there's an entire era we can call a "crisis." Conflicts among throne claimants alone though, is not like a modern crisis.
Eric - please get this through your head - THE GREY BADGER IS A FEMALE.

A **FEMALE**.
How to spot a shill, by John Michael Greer: "What you watch for is (a) a brand new commenter who (b) has nothing to say about the topic under discussion but (c) trots out a smoothly written opinion piece that (d) hits all the standard talking points currently being used by a specific political or corporate interest, while (e) avoiding any other points anyone else has made on that subject."

"If the shoe fits..." The Grey Badger.







Post#530 at 08-07-2013 08:23 AM by Justin '77 [at Meh. joined Sep 2001 #posts 12,182]
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Quote Originally Posted by The Grey Badger View Post
Eric - please get this through your head - THE GREY BADGER IS A FEMALE.

A **FEMALE**.
What's a girl badger called?

-consults Teh Oracle-

hmm... 'sow'. nevermind...
"Qu'est-ce que c'est que cela, la loi ? On peut donc être dehors. Je ne comprends pas. Quant à moi, suis-je dans la loi ? suis-je hors la loi ? Je n'en sais rien. Mourir de faim, est-ce être dans la loi ?" -- Tellmarch

"Человек не может снять с себя ответственности за свои поступки." - L. Tolstoy

"[it]
is no doubt obvious, the cult of the experts is both self-serving, for those who propound it, and fraudulent." - Noam Chomsky







Post#531 at 08-07-2013 08:24 AM by Marx & Lennon [at '47 cohort still lost in Falwelland joined Sep 2001 #posts 16,709]
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Quote Originally Posted by The Grey Badger View Post
Eric - please get this through your head - THE GREY BADGER IS A FEMALE.

A **FEMALE**.
Not thinkng of resurrecting your old forum name are you?
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.







Post#532 at 08-07-2013 09:05 AM by The Grey Badger [at Albuquerque, NM joined Sep 2001 #posts 8,876]
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Quote Originally Posted by Justin '77 View Post
What's a girl badger called?

-consults Teh Oracle-

hmm... 'sow'. nevermind...
As are Mama bears. The male is called a 'boar' - I'm sure a certain homophone will come to mind immediately.
How to spot a shill, by John Michael Greer: "What you watch for is (a) a brand new commenter who (b) has nothing to say about the topic under discussion but (c) trots out a smoothly written opinion piece that (d) hits all the standard talking points currently being used by a specific political or corporate interest, while (e) avoiding any other points anyone else has made on that subject."

"If the shoe fits..." The Grey Badger.







Post#533 at 08-07-2013 09:06 AM by The Grey Badger [at Albuquerque, NM joined Sep 2001 #posts 8,876]
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Quote Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon View Post
Not thinkng of resurrecting your old forum name are you?
No, I don't think so. This one suits me better.
How to spot a shill, by John Michael Greer: "What you watch for is (a) a brand new commenter who (b) has nothing to say about the topic under discussion but (c) trots out a smoothly written opinion piece that (d) hits all the standard talking points currently being used by a specific political or corporate interest, while (e) avoiding any other points anyone else has made on that subject."

"If the shoe fits..." The Grey Badger.







Post#534 at 08-07-2013 09:25 AM by Justin '77 [at Meh. joined Sep 2001 #posts 12,182]
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Quote Originally Posted by The Grey Badger View Post
As are Mama bears. The male is called a 'boar' - I'm sure a certain homophone will come to mind immediately.
Why would colonialism in southern Africa come to mind?
"Qu'est-ce que c'est que cela, la loi ? On peut donc être dehors. Je ne comprends pas. Quant à moi, suis-je dans la loi ? suis-je hors la loi ? Je n'en sais rien. Mourir de faim, est-ce être dans la loi ?" -- Tellmarch

"Человек не может снять с себя ответственности за свои поступки." - L. Tolstoy

"[it]
is no doubt obvious, the cult of the experts is both self-serving, for those who propound it, and fraudulent." - Noam Chomsky







Post#535 at 08-07-2013 11:07 AM by Chas'88 [at In between Pennsylvania & Pennsyltucky joined Nov 2008 #posts 9,432]
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Quote Originally Posted by The Grey Badger View Post
No, I don't think so. This one suits me better.
Yeah, it does. At first when I saw it I initially thought you were male as well (because I thought the handle was a tribute to The Wind in the Willows), remember? But as I got to know your personality it became obvious why this handle suits you better. Like a Badger you like digging around in the roots of all things and finding tasty thought morsels to ponder.

~Chas'88
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."







Post#536 at 08-07-2013 11:07 AM by The Grey Badger [at Albuquerque, NM joined Sep 2001 #posts 8,876]
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Quote Originally Posted by Justin '77 View Post
Why would colonialism in southern Africa come to mind?
Wrong homophone. (Yawns and surreptitiously checks one's smartphone.)
How to spot a shill, by John Michael Greer: "What you watch for is (a) a brand new commenter who (b) has nothing to say about the topic under discussion but (c) trots out a smoothly written opinion piece that (d) hits all the standard talking points currently being used by a specific political or corporate interest, while (e) avoiding any other points anyone else has made on that subject."

"If the shoe fits..." The Grey Badger.







Post#537 at 08-07-2013 11:08 AM by The Grey Badger [at Albuquerque, NM joined Sep 2001 #posts 8,876]
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Quote Originally Posted by Chas'88 View Post
Yeah, it does. At first when I saw it I initially thought you were male as well (because I thought the handle was a tribute to The Wind in the Willows), remember? But as I got to know your personality it became obvious why this handle suits you better. Like a Badger you like digging around in the roots of all things and finding tasty thought morsels to ponder.

~Chas'88
Thanks! I'm going to add that observation to my notebook.
How to spot a shill, by John Michael Greer: "What you watch for is (a) a brand new commenter who (b) has nothing to say about the topic under discussion but (c) trots out a smoothly written opinion piece that (d) hits all the standard talking points currently being used by a specific political or corporate interest, while (e) avoiding any other points anyone else has made on that subject."

"If the shoe fits..." The Grey Badger.







Post#538 at 08-07-2013 12:20 PM by Marx & Lennon [at '47 cohort still lost in Falwelland joined Sep 2001 #posts 16,709]
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Quote Originally Posted by The Grey Badger View Post
Quote Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon View Post
Not thinkng of resurrecting your old forum name are you?
No, I don't think so. This one suits me better.
Good. I was worried there for a minute or two.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.







Post#539 at 08-07-2013 12:43 PM by Chas'88 [at In between Pennsylvania & Pennsyltucky joined Nov 2008 #posts 9,432]
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Quote Originally Posted by Mikebert View Post
Chas, in Terry Jones Medieval episode on the damsel they mention an elderly knight who comes to an elderly damsel in distress. That knight is one of the actors I have listed for the Magna Carta Awakening. And yeah that 70-year old playing Lancelot turns out to be a hero archetype. Sometimes this stuff really does fall into place.
And just like typical civics they couldn't stop working and tinkering--old age be damned! Hell, that knight took the castle away from Nichola and she got in such a huff about it she arranged to get it back and carry out her duties as warden of the castle for another fifteen years or so.

~Chas'88
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."







Post#540 at 08-07-2013 01:36 PM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
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Quote Originally Posted by The Grey Badger View Post
Eric - please get this through your head - THE GREY BADGER IS A FEMALE.

A **FEMALE**.
How do you determine the sex of a badger, through a computer yet?
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#541 at 08-07-2013 02:34 PM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
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Quote Originally Posted by Chas'88 View Post
When you're raising armies amongst the people and pitching them against one another in a conflict that goes on for several years, it involved more than just the "throne claimnants".
Sure thing, however that's still a small part of the population, and it's not about the people. There may be grounds for postulating such a "crisis" in circa 1051-1071; however remember what mikebert also admits in his "better moments."

There are fluctuations in society, but the saeculum in medieval times can't be like today's cycle. It is probably not determined by generations. As I have pointed out, you can't have a generational cycle with only two living generations supposed to generate a 100-year long cycle; and change is too slow between generations; there are no "gaps." So archetypes don't really apply. But ebbs and flows can be distinguished, as mike as done with his castle-building and other economic and political statistics. I don't remember whether mikebert has established these across Europe or just in particular countries; he has posted these stats elsewhere.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#542 at 08-07-2013 06:46 PM by The Grey Badger [at Albuquerque, NM joined Sep 2001 #posts 8,876]
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Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Green View Post
How do you determine the sex of a badger, through a computer yet?
Try "She's said so several times already"? Since there's no way to check for certain child-feeding appendages unique to female mammals.

Oddly enough - way, way back in the day, it was considered a compliment to tell a woman that she thought like a man, the subtext being "as well as" one. It was also considered a compliment to tell one that, frex, "A scientist? No! You don't LOOK like a scientist!" [I'm not. Example out of the clear blue, or else a dim memory.]
How to spot a shill, by John Michael Greer: "What you watch for is (a) a brand new commenter who (b) has nothing to say about the topic under discussion but (c) trots out a smoothly written opinion piece that (d) hits all the standard talking points currently being used by a specific political or corporate interest, while (e) avoiding any other points anyone else has made on that subject."

"If the shoe fits..." The Grey Badger.







Post#543 at 09-09-2013 02:19 AM by TimWalker [at joined May 2007 #posts 6,368]
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How To Run The World by Parag Khanna. "In a neo-medieval world, multiple identities are possible according to your nation, profession, religion, ethnicity, or even your online avatar."







Post#544 at 09-17-2013 04:36 PM by TimWalker [at joined May 2007 #posts 6,368]
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Came across an interesting comment from TV Tropes. That for revitalizing a civilization new ideas and new institutions are required. You may try to patch up an old Universal Empire-such as the Roman Empire (Diocletian)-but that meant survival through draconian change-rather than revitalization.
Last edited by TimWalker; 09-22-2013 at 09:27 PM.







Post#545 at 09-18-2013 11:50 PM by TimWalker [at joined May 2007 #posts 6,368]
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I expect that I will eventually check out two books by Stephen Blaha: 1. The Life Cycle of Civilization 2. SuperCivilizations: Civilizations as Superorganisms
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Post#546 at 09-19-2013 09:41 PM by TimWalker [at joined May 2007 #posts 6,368]
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The organic metaphor applied to civilization.







Post#547 at 09-19-2013 10:18 PM by TimWalker [at joined May 2007 #posts 6,368]
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Another metaphor from biology is metamorphosis.
Last edited by TimWalker; 09-20-2013 at 01:11 PM.







Post#548 at 09-20-2013 12:11 PM by TimWalker [at joined May 2007 #posts 6,368]
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Stephen Blaha's Life Cycle of Civilization.
Last edited by TimWalker; 09-21-2013 at 07:42 PM.







Post#549 at 09-22-2013 10:25 PM by TimWalker [at joined May 2007 #posts 6,368]
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Blaha certainly has some interesting comments. For example, the interaction between Hellenic and ancient Egyptian civilizations suggests possible trends for the 21st century. Will international interactions have a stimulating effect? It was commented some time ago that such led to the (Italian) Renaissance.







Post#550 at 09-23-2013 08:46 PM by TimWalker [at joined May 2007 #posts 6,368]
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If you check out the Previews (see above link) Blaha has some interesting comments regarding the aftermath of 1914. Blaha said that Western civ should have experienced a Rout after 1914-but technological change seems to have allowed the civilization to prosper instead of deteriorate. Also, a similar effect seems to have allowed Japan to recuperate from WWII.
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