Sean - The 18th century Civic Generation I call Romantic because it is the generation of the first Romantic poets - Wordsworth, Coleridge, and Blake as well as those very romantic heroes - Wellington and, across the channel, Napoleon. I don't call the Turnings anything (although one might call the 18th century Crisis the Democratic Revolutionary Crisis and the 19th century Crisis the National Unity Crisis), and I have no explanation for their shortness in the 19th century other than to say, generations have always varied from 15 to 33-4 years, and the turnings that relate to them must necessarily be about the same. My interest is first in generations and then, of necessity, the events that shaped them, and the beginning and ending events that define a "Turning" are arbitrary and chosen for dramatic effect. For example, although I think we are still in an Unravelling, I am fairly confident that future historians will find 9/11 a dramatic (and convenient) starting point for the first Crisis of the 21st century. Similarly, The British Crisis probably ended in 1802 with Amiens, but Trafalgar in 1805 is much more dramatic - in either case, the Idealist Generation started being born in 1800, so I don't much care what one chooses as a starting point.

As to the 1805-1822 period, this is a period of consolidation and institution building that, in its conformity and further solidifying entrenched interests, smells a lot like America in the 1950s.

Pax,

Dave Krein '42[/b]

The avant-garde of hard in the lands of Bach, Beethoven and Brahms.


WARNING!Plenty of YSFOMic language, notably the now universal f-wordWARNING!

I rarely step foot in a gym or watch network news TV, but I'm at a conference and my hotel has a fitness room, and I was using the treatmill this morning, watching CNN Headline News.

When they took a break from Katrina, it was to do a little story about the latest fad to hit the clubbing scene in the Netherlands -- silent discos. What happens is that people who come to the club get a headphone. You put on the headphone and you can tune it to several DJs. So you have all of these people dancing around wearing headphones with different music.

I don't know what to make of it. Seems like 3T to me. It actually repelled me; all these club goers in there own world.

Has anyone else heard of it? Has anyone actually been to one?

The Fifth Mark for the F-word will bring a "talking to"

Originally Posted by The Wonkette

I rarely step foot in a gym or watch network news TV, but I'm at a conference and my hotel has a fitness room, and I was using the treatmill this morning, watching CNN Headline News.

When they took a break from Katrina, it was to do a little story about the latest fad to hit the clubbing scene in the Netherlands -- silent discos. What happens is that people who come to the club get a headphone. You put on the headphone and you can tune it to several DJs. So you have all of these people dancing around wearing headphones with different music.

I don't know what to make of it. Seems like 3T to me. It actually repelled me; all these club goers in there own world.

Has anyone else heard of it? Has anyone actually been to one?

No, but I agree that it sounds disturbingly 3T. Holland is showing signs of cuspiness, just like us, but these Silent Disco's sound like the epitomy of the individualistic extreme 3T's are known for.

It looks like it will be a "grand coalition" of the CDU and SDP with Merkel at the helm in Germany.

Her lack of charisma doesn't exactly scream 4t greatness, but you have to wonder if a coalition of center-left and center-right reformers in other western countries (including America) won't prevail this 4t.

In a time of multiculturalism, exploding deficits, and aging populations, both the right and the left may have to sacrifice some of their sacred cows to keep western governments and economies afloat. The "radical centrists" may prevail in the west this 4t rather than coalitions of the center-left and liberals, or the center-right and conservatives.

This also may dispel the notion that a woman cannot be elected during a fourth turning. I had thought that either a "Jamaican" coalition of the conservatives and the greens would prevail, or that a coalition of the SDP and greens would be renewed with Schroeder at the helm, and was obviously quite wrong, but I have been skeptical of the idea that in this day and age a woman could not become president of prime minister during a fourth turning. Perhaps Hillary's chances are better than we know.

PS Some are predicting gridlock from this outcome, but I wouldn't be so sure. If they were able to convince the egomaniacal narcissist Schroeder to step down they might just be able to come to a consensus on market reforms.

PPS If someone as dreary as Merkel can get the nod at the outset of a fourth turning perhaps even Al Gore has a shot at a comeback.

Originally Posted by thenomadjake

PS Some are predicting gridlock from this outcome, but I wouldn't be so sure. If they were able to convince the egomaniacal narcissist Schroeder to step down they might just be able to come to a consensus on market reforms.

PPS If someone as dreary as Merkel can get the nod at the outset of a fourth turning perhaps even Al Gore has a shot at a comeback.

Eh, I don't see Angie as that dreary. Germany needs some one to help it shed some of its welfare largess. And she is obviously up to the task having stared narcissistic German 68er Schroeder down for three weeks.

I think the Dems should study up on Merkel, the same way Blair studied Clinton. The recent US elections (2000, 2004) seem to predict that 2008 just may be a squeaker as well. But perhaps a squeaker on our side.

Originally Posted by thenomadjake

Al Gore has a shot at a comeback.

Gorebots :lol: Gore/Obama'08 :lol: Could be...I would get behind that.

Originally Posted by thenomadjake

Al Gore has a shot at a comeback.

He'll have to get past Hillary first. (Good luck, Al! You'll need it!)

Originally Posted by SVE-KRD

Originally Posted by thenomadjake

Al Gore has a shot at a comeback.

He'll have to get past Hillary first. (Good luck, Al! You'll need it!)

Given this post-"We're Eisenhower Republicans" Clintonism era, of which Hillarygate and InternetAl are closely associated with, one has to wonder which side the radical Sorosmoveon.org crowd will choose. Methinks the Deanics are the true trump-card, here. As much present-day fun Democrats are having during these fashionable Bush-bashing daze, I'd prefer not to be sitting on their side of the aisle, long-term.

The Democrat cupboard, imho, is bare. Lacking new ideas is one thing, but they are truly the party of little, colorless people thinking very little things. I mean, whatever happen to the huge "arsenic in our drinking water" crisis?

• Under FDR all we had to fear was fear itself. Now, we have to fear arsenic in our drinking water. This is an outrageous and indefensible decision. --Democrat Senate Majority Leader, Tom Dashcle (April, 2001)

Phony fear indeed. :wink:

Come on Mr. Advocate. The Democrats have big ideas, like hanging peddlers of violent video games, sending cell phone using drivers to the chair, and legalizing lynch mobs against people who dare to smoke outdoors within 100,000,000 feet of an elementary school.

Originally Posted by Mr. Anderson

Originally Posted by thenomadjake

PS Some are predicting gridlock from this outcome, but I wouldn't be so sure. If they were able to convince the egomaniacal narcissist Schroeder to step down they might just be able to come to a consensus on market reforms.

PPS If someone as dreary as Merkel can get the nod at the outset of a fourth turning perhaps even Al Gore has a shot at a comeback.

I think the Dems should study up on Merkel, the same way Blair studied Clinton.

Now where are we going to find an icy blond lady with a taste for cotton blend pants suits who some mistake for a lesbian.

Oh yeah...

Originally Posted by thenomadjake

Originally Posted by Mr. Anderson

Originally Posted by thenomadjake

PS Some are predicting gridlock from this outcome, but I wouldn't be so sure. If they were able to convince the egomaniacal narcissist Schroeder to step down they might just be able to come to a consensus on market reforms.

PPS If someone as dreary as Merkel can get the nod at the outset of a fourth turning perhaps even Al Gore has a shot at a comeback.

I think the Dems should study up on Merkel, the same way Blair studied Clinton.

Now where are we going to find an icy blond lady with a taste for cotton blend pants suits who some mistake for a lesbian.

Oh yeah...

I seriously wouldn't mind, but I am REALLY sick of cronyism. If getting Hillary means we get Sandy Berger and Madeleine Albright and Warren Christopher back, then...forget it.

Originally Posted by Devil's Advocate

Originally Posted by SVE-KRD

Originally Posted by thenomadjake

Al Gore has a shot at a comeback.

He'll have to get past Hillary first. (Good luck, Al! You'll need it!)

Given this post-"We're Eisenhower Republicans" Clintonism era, of which Hillarygate and InternetAl are closely associated with, one has to wonder which side the radical Sorosmoveon.org crowd will choose. Methinks the Deanics are the true trump-card, here. As much present-day fun Democrats are having during these fashionable Bush-bashing daze, I'd prefer not to be sitting on their side of the aisle, long-term.

The Democrat cupboard, imho, is bare. Lacking new ideas is one thing, but they are truly the party of little, colorless people thinking very little things. I mean, whatever happen to the huge "arsenic in our drinking water" crisis?

• Under FDR all we had to fear was fear itself. Now, we have to fear arsenic in our drinking water. This is an outrageous and indefensible decision. --Democrat Senate Majority Leader, Tom Dashcle (April, 2001)

Phony fear indeed. :wink:

Last time I checked you were the party out of ideas. You can't even agree on your president's nomination for the Supreme Court. Some unified voice

I really wonder what FDR would say about this. Would you please tell us more about FDR??? :arrow: :arrow: :arrow: :arrow: :arrow:

This AP story about the left-right coalition in Germany doesn't sound so reassuring.

I think the idea here is that a little deregulation, and opening up labor markets, will go a long way.

This isn't 1980, when the global economy just needed to be primed (with higher interest rates and deregulation) for a long boom. Modest reforms (which are apparently hard enough to enact over there) may buy Germany and France and other western European countries some time, but the global economy is teetering on the brink, and they are all headed for the demographic wall.

I wouldn't be surprised to see civil unrest in multiple western European countries as it becomes clear that these societies can no longer afford to have generous cradle to grave benefits.

Ha!

"As for German business, the country's larger companies have certainly made big changes over the past decade. They have internationalised aggressively. Several hold their board meetings in English. They are leaner, meaner, fitter. They have export performances that most British or US companies would die for. But they have done this, on the whole, by cutting jobs in Germany and creating new jobs in the Czech Republic, Poland, India or China. This has not done much to help Germany's more than 5 million unemployed. Watching one of the endless TV discussion shows (Germans may not like change, but they love talking about it) I saw a former minister in Helmut Kohl's government, Norbert Blüm, throw up his hands in incomprehending horror at the notion that the stock market rewarded German companies for getting rid of 10,000 employees.

Well, exactly. The market alone won't do it. It does need the German state to create the conditions in which German companies will create the jobs - at home and not abroad. This means changing labour laws, taxes, welfare contributions and the like. These are the things that an alliance with the free-marketeering Free Democrats would have encouraged, and that with the Social Democrats will slow down. This at a time when Germany faces a fierce double competition: regionally, from the low-wage, low-tax economies of central and eastern Europe, and globally, from Asia. Now more than ever, I suspect that what Germany does will be too little, too late."

I agree with the too little too late part, but the notion that cutting taxes and regulation is going to stop the exodus of high wage blue and white collar jobs in Germany is delusional. I wonder if Mr. Ash has been to America recently. They could eliminate corporate taxes altogether (I'd add an elimination of the minimum wage but I don't believe there is one in Germany), and it would still be cheaper to hire highly qualified spot welders and computer programmers and accountants in Romania or India.

Originally Posted by thenomadjake

... the notion that cutting taxes and regulation is going to stop the exodus of high wage blue and white collar jobs in Germany is delusional. I wonder if Mr. Ash has been to America recently. They could eliminate corporate taxes altogether (I'd add an elimination of the minimum wage but I don't believe there is one in Germany), and it would still be cheaper to hire highly qualified spot welders and computer programmers and accountants in Romania or India.

Welcome to the 4T. This is a problem everywhere in the developed world, and the ones being asked to pay to "internationalize" are the ones with the smallest stake in its success - the workers. Who believes that the workers in Western Europe will be willing to live like Indians or Romanians just to help business grow bigger and wealthier? I see the return of the class struggle, with new rules and new goals.

Originally Posted by Mr. Anderson

Last time I checked you were the party out of ideas. You can't even agree on your president's nomination for the Supreme Court. Some unified voice

So, a room full of people with "new ideas" translates into a "unified voice"?

I bet you haven't a clue how stupid and idealess you sound.

Originally Posted by Devil's Advocate

Originally Posted by Mr. Anderson

Last time I checked you were the party out of ideas. You can't even agree on your president's nomination for the Supreme Court. Some unified voice

So, a room full of people with "new ideas" translates into a "unified voice"?

I bet you haven't a clue how stupid and idealess you sound.

You have OLD ideas. "Anti-abortion"? How 1972. Privatize social security? How 1931. Gut the UN (league of nations successor)? How 1919. Were there other platforms? Oh that's right - those were your only ideas. That and stop the evil of gay marriage. :lol: What a pathetic fucking joke.

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

Originally Posted by thenomadjake

... the notion that cutting taxes and regulation is going to stop the exodus of high wage blue and white collar jobs in Germany is delusional. I wonder if Mr. Ash has been to America recently. They could eliminate corporate taxes altogether (I'd add an elimination of the minimum wage but I don't believe there is one in Germany), and it would still be cheaper to hire highly qualified spot welders and computer programmers and accountants in Romania or India.

Welcome to the 4T. This is a problem everywhere in the developed world, and the ones being asked to pay to "internationalize" are the ones with the smallest stake in its success - the workers. Who believes that the workers in Western Europe will be willing to live like Indians or Romanians just to help business grow bigger and wealthier? I see the return of the class struggle, with new rules and new goals.

It seems logical that either political forces and or the arrival of peak oil will spell the end of the neo-liberal era, and force the re-nationalization, even localization, of more economic activity. China, India, and other strong developing countries need to focus on growing their internal markets, and by the time globalization picks up again there will be greater wage and currency parity between the west and the giants in Asia.

Originally Posted by thenomadjake

It seems logical that either political forces and or the arrival of peak oil will spell the end of the neo-liberal era, and force the re-nationalization, even localization, of more economic activity.

In the long run, the above development would be good not just for China and India, but might actually improve our long term survival chances (assuming we survive the short-and-middle-term fallout). And as for globalization picking up steam again one day, I would like to think that Americans would remember the short-and-middle-term pain involved in the above scenario sufficiently to take an 'Over my dead body!' attitude towards becoming economically dependent on foreign trade ever again. :evil:

Originally Posted by Mr. Anderson

You have OLD ideas. "Anti-abortion"? How 1972. Privatize social security? How 1931. Gut the UN (league of nations successor)? How 1919. Were there other platforms? Oh that's right - those were your only ideas. That and stop the evil of gay marriage. :lol: What a pathetic fucking joke.

Gee, does uttering 219 ring the Louis Farrakhan conspiracy bell, or what? :lol:

Like I said, I bet you haven't a clue how stupid and idealess you sound. And the sound I hear is the kooks taking over the Party of FDR.

Yes! 8)

Originally Posted by Devil's Advocate

Originally Posted by Mr. Anderson

You have OLD ideas. "Anti-abortion"? How 1972. Privatize social security? How 1931. Gut the UN (league of nations successor)? How 1919. Were there other platforms? Oh that's right - those were your only ideas. That and stop the evil of gay marriage. :lol: What a pathetic fucking joke.

Gee, does uttering 219 ring the Louis Farrakhan conspiracy bell, or what? :lol:

Like I said, I bet you haven't a clue how stupid and idealess you sound. And the sound I hear is the kooks taking over the Party of FDR.

Yes! 8)

And you don't seem to understand what a fucking douchebag thou art. Your chance to flee the Hindenberg is happening now, but you still have faith in your airship. Your Titanic is splitting into two, yet still you proclaim it unsinkable.

The ideal government first does its job and then goes home. It doesn't go home first and then not do its job, like Bush.

It looks like the Tories may be about to have a generation x leader.

Cameron supports drug decriminalization, among other things.

He is an exciting character worthy of a 4t opposition, and a fine example of one of the points I've been trying to make here. The opposition Democrats will not be electrifying again until they hire a nomad to lead them. The boomer Democrats are mostly poll chasers who are insufficiently libertarian or feisty enough to lead the opposition anymore.

Cameron will probably never be prime minister, but that isn't the point. His job is to remind Britain that Tony Blair is a prudish old weirdo who is taking away all their freedoms and that life is more fun in laissez faire times. Look for the Tories to become the party of making money, smoking dope, and hunting foxes. Maybe the Democrats will learn something from them. Don't bet they do in a timely fashion.

Note to Democrats: getting high and getting laid is far more interesting to people than some chick who worked at the CIA (unless she was doing Karl Rove and Scooter Libby at the same time). By necessity, the Republicans could become the party of frugality who wants you to drive a flaccid hybrid and live in a recycled box. The Democrats should become the party of bling, and the next DNC should have girls in halter tops peddling cigarettes and beer, demonstrations of automatic weapons, and a parade of lowrider SUVs. Democrats should run on a platform of legalizing dope, letting people smoke cigarettes everywhere again, and ending the embargo on Castro so Jake can get some cigars.

Make of this what you will.

The following is linked and quoted for purposes of discussion and illustration only, without intention of profit or infringement.

Riots In Paris



13 Arrested In Paris Suburb Riots

PARIS, Nov. 1, 2005
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(AP) Youths torched cars, set garbage bins alight and threw stones at police in a fifth night of rioting in a Paris suburb, and set two primary school classrooms on fire as rioting spread to two other suburban towns, police and an official said Tuesday.

Police said that 19 people were detained in the late Monday and early Tuesday rioting in Clichy-sous-Bois and three other suburbs and 13 of them jailed. A total of 21 cars — two of them police cars — were burned, police said.

The mayor of Sevran said youths set two rooms of a primary school on fire, along with several cars. Police said three officers were slightly injured in Sevran.

"These acts have a direct link to the events in Clichy-sous-Bois," Sevran Mayor Stephane Gatignon said in a statement.

The troubles started Thursday night in Clichy-sous-Bois, northeast of Paris, following the accidental electrocution deaths of two teenagers who hid in a power substation to escape police whom they thought were chasing them. Officials have said police were not pursuing the boys, aged 15 and 17, at all.

Suburbs that ring France's big cities suffer soaring unemployment and are home to immigrant communities, often from Muslim North Africa. Disenchantment, and anger, run high.

Besides Clichy-sous-Bois and Sevran, troubles also erupted in Aulnay-sous-bois and Bondy, police said. All communities are in the Seine-Saint-Denis region, considered a "sensitive" area of immigration and modest incomes.

Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy on Monday ordered a permanent increase in police and undercover agents to identify troublemakers in difficult neighborhoods. However, the law-and-order minister's tough talk drew growing criticism Tuesday — even from within his own government.

Sarkozy recently referred to troublemakers in the suburbs as "scum" or "riffraff" and in the past vowed to "clean out" the suburbs.

Such "warlike" words won't bring calm, Equal Opportunities Minister Azouz Begag said in an interview published in the daily Liberation newspaper.

He told the paper that he "contests this method of becoming submerged by imprecise, warlike semantics."

While re-establishing order demands firmness, "it is in fighting the discrimination that victimizes youths that order is re-established, the order of equality," said Begag, who was raised in a low-income suburb of Lyon.

The president of SOS-Racism, an anti-racism group, called Tuesday for a "massive investment plan" to cure suburban ills.

"The police response alone ... are not at all adequate to the problem in question," Dominique Sopo said on France-Info radio, calling for a "real policy of breaking the ghettos." The money must go not only to building, but also to caring for the people via local associations, he said.

Sarkozy says violence in the suburbs is a daily fact of life, with dozens of cars torched each night and underground economies of crime.

In incidents apparently unrelated to the riots near Paris, youths set fire to an empty building and trash cans and stoned fire trucks in several nights of unrest in Sedan, northeastern France, authorities there said Tuesday. Officials said the youths were protesting the imprisonment of one of their peers on drug charges and for resisting arrest.