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Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

Why would an election be a Regeneracy?

What do you think our last Regeneracy was back in 1932?

Originally Posted by herbal tee

It might be but only if it's an overwhelming landslide. A typical 52/48 split would indicate that France is fundamentally unchanged from its recent pattern.

Last I checked it was looking 55% for Sarkozy and 45% for Royal.

Originally Posted by Odin

What do you think our last Regeneracy was back in 1932?

Well a regeneracy isn't politics nor elections. Typically during the regeneracy there are political blowouts, but that can happen in any turning.

France is certainly in the crisis period, and the amount of hysteria surrounding this elections indicates this. The riots don't count as a catalyst, or at least not a proper one. There's no way the nation can all of a sudden become unified at this point. It's too early and without any MAJOR 4T problems and hardship, a regeneracy stemming from an election is highly unlikely.

Originally Posted by Odin

Well, looks like Sarkozy is going to be the new president of France. Is this their Regeneracy (I'm assuming the 2005 riots were the catalyst)?

2005 was another unraveling year for Europe, probably something will pop up in 2008 to trigger the 4T there.

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

Well a regeneracy isn't politics nor elections. Typically during the regeneracy there are political blowouts, but that can happen in any turning.

France is certainly in the crisis period, and the amount of hysteria surrounding this elections indicates this. The riots don't count as a catalyst, or at least not a proper one. There's no way the nation can all of a sudden become unified at this point. It's too early and without any MAJOR 4T problems and hardship, a regeneracy stemming from an election is highly unlikely.

The reason why I was thinking this is a Regeneracy is how big of a margin Sarkozy is winning by when his plans of economic liberalization seems so... un-French. The country so traditionally opposed to "Anglo-Saxon model" looks like it's electing, by a good margin, somebody who is going to bring in the "Anglo-Saxon model"!

Also IIRC one of Sarkozy's proposals was a youth program that sounds like a CCC for immigrants.

Originally Posted by Odin

The reason why I was thinking this is a Regeneracy is how big of a margin Sarkozy is winning by when his plans of economic liberalization seems so... un-French. The country so traditionally opposed to "Anglo-Saxon model" looks like it's electing, by a good margin, somebody who is going to bring in the "Anglo-Saxon model"!

Also IIRC one of Sarkozy's proposals was a youth program that sounds like a CCC for immigrants.

I'm not really sure what you're saying. Are you suggesting that the regeneracy has happened and his plans for reform indicates this? Are you suggesting that the election process is a regeneracy because people are backing his un-French reforms? Or are you suggesting that election day itself is a regeneracy because France will finally come to the realization of what they need to do to resolve the crisis that hasn't presented itself?

(I've just confused myself)

I'm sure France is in a crisis period, and have been for a few years but they haven't had a proper catalyst. The same goes for the rest of Europe. Why is this? Well their generational alignment resembles a 4T, even without a catalyst. Also, they are in sync with America, which has at least a little effect.

France sees that the current policies aren't working and the mood is darkening and things are getting worse (probably more to do with it being a 4T than the actual policies), and the two contenders are both reformers. One is a Socialist, the other is British. The French want change, and any change will do. However, they are still very divided about exactly what to do. Kind of like America.

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

Are you suggesting that the election process is a regeneracy because people are backing his un-French reforms?

Yes, for the entire Millennial Saeculum France has been a champion of very strong government intervention in the economy and despised any suggestion of liberalizing the economy, until now.

Of course we won't know with certainty if this is the regeneracy or not until the parliamentary elections, but things seem to be a changin' there. If not a regeneracy, this is at least equivalent to the '06 elections here.

Originally Posted by Odin

Yes, for the entire Millennial Saeculum France has been a champion of very strong government intervention in the economy and despised any suggestion of liberalizing the economy, until now.

Of course we won't know with certainty if this is the regeneracy or not until the parliamentary elections, but things seem to be a changin' there. If not a regeneracy, this is at least equivalent to the '06 elections here.

Okay, but I see this as more of a repudiation of the old system rather than an acceptance of the new one, and not a regeneracy since the problem hasn't presented itself so much. I think the comparison to the U.S. '06 elections is valid.

The recent French Presidental election is very 3T, rather like the US presidental election of 2004. That is not suprising since Western Europe is 4 years behind the USA.

Originally Posted by Tristan

The recent French Presidental election is very 3T, rather like the US presidental election of 2004. That is not suprising since Western Europe is 4 years behind the USA.

Agreed, but very late 3T. The people in France are getting grumpy and restless. (More than usual, even )

Didn't David Kaiser had some thoughts on generations in Germany before say 1890. I have a feeling it give me a guide to the European saeculum during the 19th century. Before 19th century I see little reason why the European Saeculum would off America's by very much.

On the subject of the 19th century European 4T, it went on longer than the American one which finished in 1865, to incorporate the Franco-Prussian War and Paris Commune which occurred in 1870/1871. There could have been a Hero generation running from say c.1838-c.1853 and an Artist generation running from c.1854-c.1869. That would mean fairly short generations around 15 years.

I can for example Bismarck's social security introduction in the 1890's and the old age pensions introduced in Australia and Britain during the first decade of the 20th century can be seen as rewarding a Hero generation.

Now Europe is getting in on the cold, windy weather.
Leading article: Behold this winter of discontent

Published: 20 November 2007



In Continental Europe the coldest start to winter for many years has been accompanied by a hotting up of industrial strife. German freight train drivers, Finnish nurses and pretty much the whole of the French public sector have been taking, or threatening, what we quaintly used to call industrial action.

It would be easy to cite this seemingly sudden flare-up of old-fashioned worker discontent as evidence that the European "social model" has run its course. It could then be argued that, without the curbs that apply in Britain – without, to put no fine a point on it, a slap of cold, hard, therapeutic Thatcherism – Continental Europe is destined to decline. But that would be too simple. In Finland, nurses and other essential public service workers are already banned from striking; in their quest for better pay and conditions, the nurses threatened mass resignation instead. Germany has much-admired arrangements, based on workers' councils and board representation for trade unions, for preventing strikes. This time these mechanisms have failed. And while French strikes may seem a regular occurrence, this is the first time for 12 years that Paris has been so effectively paralysed.

What lies behind the newly militant mood? One factor may be the policy changes, or looming changes, heralded by the election of governments on the centre right. This is certainly true in France, where Nicolas Sarkozy came to the presidency resolved to succeed where Jacques Chirac failed in curbing pension privileges. In Germany, too, hitherto secure public sector workers have been unsettled by the plans of the Chancellor, Angela Merkel, to slim social benefits. Her ambitions have been diluted by her coalition partners and introduced largely by stealth, but perhaps government measures are now starting to bite.

Rather than reflecting a climate of economic gloom, as might be supposed, however, the latest militancy could be a consequence of improving economic fortunes. The workers concerned may no longer be as worried about losing their jobs as they were and believe that their employers – the state in all cases – can afford to give them a larger share of the action.
What we may be seeing in each affected country is a pinch point, where existing negotiating mechanisms no longer fit changed circumstances and adaptation is needed. Even if this is so, however, it does not mean that our British model is the one they will choose. After all, the mood in our own public services is far from tranquil, and we have yet to see where this will lead.

Originally Posted by Mr. Reed

Now Europe is getting in on the cold, windy weather.
Leading article: Behold this winter of discontent

Published: 20 November 2007



In Continental Europe the coldest start to winter for many years has been accompanied by a hotting up of industrial strife. German freight train drivers, Finnish nurses and pretty much the whole of the French public sector have been taking, or threatening, what we quaintly used to call industrial action.

It would be easy to cite this seemingly sudden flare-up of old-fashioned worker discontent as evidence that the European "social model" has run its course. It could then be argued that, without the curbs that apply in Britain – without, to put no fine a point on it, a slap of cold, hard, therapeutic Thatcherism – Continental Europe is destined to decline. But that would be too simple. In Finland, nurses and other essential public service workers are already banned from striking; in their quest for better pay and conditions, the nurses threatened mass resignation instead. Germany has much-admired arrangements, based on workers' councils and board representation for trade unions, for preventing strikes. This time these mechanisms have failed. And while French strikes may seem a regular occurrence, this is the first time for 12 years that Paris has been so effectively paralysed.

What lies behind the newly militant mood? One factor may be the policy changes, or looming changes, heralded by the election of governments on the centre right. This is certainly true in France, where Nicolas Sarkozy came to the presidency resolved to succeed where Jacques Chirac failed in curbing pension privileges. In Germany, too, hitherto secure public sector workers have been unsettled by the plans of the Chancellor, Angela Merkel, to slim social benefits. Her ambitions have been diluted by her coalition partners and introduced largely by stealth, but perhaps government measures are now starting to bite.

Rather than reflecting a climate of economic gloom, as might be supposed, however, the latest militancy could be a consequence of improving economic fortunes. The workers concerned may no longer be as worried about losing their jobs as they were and believe that their employers – the state in all cases – can afford to give them a larger share of the action.
What we may be seeing in each affected country is a pinch point, where existing negotiating mechanisms no longer fit changed circumstances and adaptation is needed. Even if this is so, however, it does not mean that our British model is the one they will choose. After all, the mood in our own public services is far from tranquil, and we have yet to see where this will lead.

And alas, Europe be 4T.

Originally Posted by 1990

And alas, Europe be 4T.

Almost.

Originally Posted by 1990

And alas, Europe be 4T.

It's interesting, since they haven't had a proper catalyst. True, Britain had the subway bombings, and France had its riots, but these events didn't bring about anything too new. So? They are in a generational crisis era, that's for sure. I believe that a country can enter a fourth turning (I define this as national mood) simply by having "that" many years after a crisis under its belt without any major cataclysmic events occurring around that time.

I don't think we'll see much of Europe's 4T until after the Great Devaluation or whatever you want to call it.
After that, Europe will be a victim of it's own success. The Euro will be the reserve currency for the Middle East and most of the world.
Will it finish uniting as the EU? Would including the UK reduce it's presence in the UN to one vote?
It's still handling the transition to the EU and its relations with the US as a late 3T. The trouble is, Europe's 4T might not climax until after we're 1T and not in the mood, especially if our crisis only involves the Middle East and Domestic issues (to say nothing of China).

Originally Posted by chrono117

I don't think we'll see much of Europe's 4T until after the Great Devaluation or whatever you want to call it.
After that, Europe will be a victim of it's own success. The Euro will be the reserve currency for the Middle East and most of the world.
Will it finish uniting as the EU? Would including the UK reduce it's presence in the UN to one vote?
It's still handling the transition to the EU and its relations with the US as a late 3T. The trouble is, Europe's 4T might not climax until after we're 1T and not in the mood, especially if our crisis only involves the Middle East and Domestic issues (to say nothing of China).

Uh, yeah, the EU is going to be destroyed. It, like all other evil republicn and commie-led institutions, shall be utterly destroyed during this 4T. Long live Metternich!

I try to be a straight shooter and having said that I will say this about the mindset in western europe today. Given the outcome of elections this year in France, Denmark and the Netherlands, it looks like the citizens of these 'nice' social democracies are electing hard nosed right wing governments to keep the invading brown hordes in their place.

There, I said it, flame away if you really think I'm wrong about this.

Originally Posted by herbal tee

I try to be a straight shooter and having said that I will say this about the mindset in western europe today. Given the outcome of elections this year in France, Denmark and the Netherlands, it looks like the citizens of these 'nice' social democracies are electing hard nosed right wing governments to keep the invading brown hordes in their place.

You are entirely right. This was kinda inevitable given the sheer arrogance at times of the Muslim population in Europe and idiotic PoMo republicans-in-all-but-name pol-eels in Europe.

Originally Posted by sean '90

You are entirely right. This was kinda inevitable given the sheer arrogance at times of the Muslim population in Europe and idiotic PoMo republicans-in-all-but-name pol-eels in Europe.

The muslim population if they attack would be commiting suicide. In most of europe they are only 2-3% of the population except in france where they are 8-10% of the population.

Originally Posted by sean '90

Uh, yeah, the EU is going to be destroyed. It, like all other evil republicn and commie-led institutions, shall be utterly destroyed during this 4T. Long live Metternich!

Sean '90 is not as nutty as people think on this issue, I do believe the various Nationalist parties in Europe, could break the EU apart. The EU officials desire for an European superstate goes against a lot of Europeans who still think they are French, Italian, German, British etc first.

The United States and Australia came into federation because the 'people' managed to overcome their regional identities and think of themselves as Americans or Australians first.That has not happened in Europe, only a educated few in Europe would think of themselves as Europeans first.

I think both Tristan and Herbal Tee are right. As far as the EU goes, I think instead of trying for a European superstate, they should try for a more modest confederation first and see how that goes. Or is that what they effectively have right now?

Originally Posted by The Grey Badger

I think both Tristan and Herbal Tee are right. As far as the EU goes, I think instead of trying for a European superstate, they should try for a more modest confederation first and see how that goes. Or is that what they effectively have right now?

No, it is not. Some kind of confederation that operates more as an international organization would be acceptable. I'll try and find out what Emperor Otto of Austria-Hungary thinks.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

The muslim population if they attack would be commiting suicide. In most of europe they are only 2-3% of the population except in france where they are 8-10% of the population.

Perhaps like Guinea Europe will experience a "time of ugliness." I expect that the Muslims in the Middle East would seek to retaliate.

Europe would almost certainly be 4T.