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Thread: Western Europe - Page 31







Post#751 at 11-23-2007 03:22 PM by Odin [at Moorhead, MN, USA joined Sep 2006 #posts 14,442]
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Quote Originally Posted by MichaelEaston View Post
It's interesting, since they haven't had a proper catalyst. True, Britain had the subway bombings, and France had its riots, but these events didn't bring about anything too new. So? They are in a generational crisis era, that's for sure. I believe that a country can enter a fourth turning (I define this as national mood) simply by having "that" many years after a crisis under its belt without any major cataclysmic events occurring around that time.
Western Europe is still 3T IMO, but the generational alignment is becoming just right for a 4T catalyst to occur easily. Europe is around 3 to 5 years behind us because the last 4T in Europe continued a few years after the war because of the devastation and because of political-institutional upheavals just following the war (the division of Germany, the creation of the UK's post-war welfare state, etc.), so I'm expecting the European 4T to start some time between 2008 and 2010.
To recommend thrift to the poor is both grotesque and insulting. It is like advising a man who is starving to eat less.

-Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism







Post#752 at 11-23-2007 03:30 PM by Odin [at Moorhead, MN, USA joined Sep 2006 #posts 14,442]
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Quote Originally Posted by herbal tee View Post
I try to be a straight shooter and having said that I will say this about the mindset in western europe today. Given the outcome of elections this year in France, Denmark and the Netherlands, it looks like the citizens of these 'nice' social democracies are electing hard nosed right wing governments to keep the invading brown hordes in their place.

There, I said it, flame away if you really think I'm wrong about this.

I'm expecting many of the European countries to have anti-multiculturalist centrist regeneracies. I don't think the EU will become a true federation until the Euro-Millies take the reins of power in the 2040s
To recommend thrift to the poor is both grotesque and insulting. It is like advising a man who is starving to eat less.

-Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism







Post#753 at 11-23-2007 04:23 PM by sean '90 [at joined Jul 2007 #posts 1,625]
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Quote Originally Posted by Odin View Post
I'm expecting many of the European countries to have anti-multiculturalist centrist regeneracies. I don't think the EU will become a true federation until the Euro-Millies take the reins of power in the 2040s
I do too. The EU won't ever become a federation, it will not even EXIST in a few years! Your evil commie, nation-destroying crap is going to be destroyed. Down with the EU! Long live national sovereignty! Kill Big Brother a.k.a. Odin!







Post#754 at 11-24-2007 06:56 PM by Tristan [at Melbourne, Australia joined Oct 2003 #posts 1,249]
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Quote Originally Posted by The Grey Badger View Post
I think both Tristan and Herbal Tee are right. As far as the EU goes, I think instead of trying for a European superstate, they should try for a more modest confederation first and see how that goes. Or is that what they effectively have right now?
Even that is going to be diffcult, a lot of European nations rejected or would have rejected if a referendum had been held in adopting the Euro currency.
"The f****** place should be wiped off the face of the earth".

David Bowie on Los Angeles







Post#755 at 11-24-2007 11:17 PM by Odin [at Moorhead, MN, USA joined Sep 2006 #posts 14,442]
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Quote Originally Posted by sean '90 View Post
I do too. The EU won't ever become a federation, it will not even EXIST in a few years! Your evil commie, nation-destroying crap is going to be destroyed. Down with the EU! Long live national sovereignty! Kill Big Brother a.k.a. Odin!

Nationalism has been damaging Western Civilization for 200 year, it's time for it to get shown the door.
To recommend thrift to the poor is both grotesque and insulting. It is like advising a man who is starving to eat less.

-Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism







Post#756 at 11-25-2007 12:22 AM by herbal tee [at joined Dec 2005 #posts 7,116]
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Quote Originally Posted by Odin View Post
Nationalism has been damaging Western Civilization for 200 year, it's time for it to get shown the door.
OTOH, if the French hadn't been "feelin' it" in the 1790's, young Sean would be insufferable. ::







Post#757 at 11-25-2007 03:55 PM by sean '90 [at joined Jul 2007 #posts 1,625]
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Quote Originally Posted by Odin View Post
Nationalism has been damaging Western Civilization for 200 year, it's time for it to get shown the door.
I agree, but how's about restoring the old multinational empires like those of the Habsburg's, hm?







Post#758 at 11-25-2007 03:56 PM by sean '90 [at joined Jul 2007 #posts 1,625]
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Quote Originally Posted by herbal tee View Post
OTOH, if the French hadn't been "feelin' it" in the 1790's, young Sean would be insufferable. ::
I'd like to murder some evil Jacobins right about now.

fne8r60--06







Post#759 at 11-25-2007 05:57 PM by Odin [at Moorhead, MN, USA joined Sep 2006 #posts 14,442]
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Quote Originally Posted by sean '90 View Post
I'd like to murder some evil Jacobins right about now.

fne8r60--06

the Jacobins would of never come to power had the king not of tried to flee and get outside help to restore royal absolutism. The Giordins (moderates) wanted a constitutional monarchy similar to Britain, but the king's behavior gave the Jacobins the excuse they needed to seize control of the government.
To recommend thrift to the poor is both grotesque and insulting. It is like advising a man who is starving to eat less.

-Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism







Post#760 at 11-25-2007 05:59 PM by Odin [at Moorhead, MN, USA joined Sep 2006 #posts 14,442]
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Quote Originally Posted by sean '90 View Post
I agree, but how's about restoring the old multinational empires like those of the Habsburg's, hm?
No, I'd rather have a global EU-like economic confederation.
To recommend thrift to the poor is both grotesque and insulting. It is like advising a man who is starving to eat less.

-Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism







Post#761 at 11-25-2007 08:50 PM by sean '90 [at joined Jul 2007 #posts 1,625]
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Quote Originally Posted by Odin View Post
No, I'd rather have a global EU-like economic confederation.
So you'd make things easier for Big Brother? Cheney's probably a big fan of yours then.







Post#762 at 11-25-2007 08:56 PM by sean '90 [at joined Jul 2007 #posts 1,625]
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Quote Originally Posted by Odin View Post
the Jacobins would of never come to power had the king not of tried to flee and get outside help to restore royal absolutism. The Giordins (moderates) wanted a constitutional monarchy similar to Britain, but the king's behavior gave the Jacobins the excuse they needed to seize control of the government.
HM King Louis XVI was trying to flee to a more moderate town and take the chance to pull the Revolution to a more moderate course. He regularly was writing to his brother the comte d'Artois (the future Charles X) telling him to stop fomenting counterrevolutionary stuff in from exile in the Austrian Netherlands.

The Girondins were certainly not moderates, they were more radical than even the Jacobins! You seem to be thinking of Mirabeau, who was very much a moderate, and one of my personal heros. Sadly, he died in 1791, the year everything went to Hell.







Post#763 at 12-02-2007 10:59 AM by Chris Loyd '82 [at Land of no Zones joined Jul 2001 #posts 402]
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US gov't to British court: We can kidnap Brits, it's legal

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle2982640.ece

AMERICA has told Britain that it can “kidnap” British citizens if they are wanted for crimes in the United States.

A senior lawyer for the American government has told the Court of Appeal in London that kidnapping foreign citizens is permissible under American law because the US Supreme Court has sanctioned it.

The admission will alarm the British business community after the case of the so-called NatWest Three, bankers who were extradited to America on fraud charges. More than a dozen other British executives, including senior managers at British Airways and BAE Systems, are under investigation by the US authorities and could face criminal charges in America.

Until now it was commonly assumed that US law permitted kidnapping only in the “extraordinary rendition” of terrorist suspects.
Related Links

The American government has for the first time made it clear in a British court that the law applies to anyone, British or otherwise, suspected of a crime by Washington.

Legal experts confirmed this weekend that America viewed extradition as just one way of getting foreign suspects back to face trial. Rendition, or kidnapping, dates back to 19th-century bounty hunting and Washington believes it is still legitimate.

[Go to Link to Read More]
America is wonderful because you can get anything on a drive-through basis.
-- Neal Stephenson / Snow Crash







Post#764 at 12-03-2007 09:22 AM by Marx & Lennon [at '47 cohort still lost in Falwelland joined Sep 2001 #posts 16,709]
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Quote Originally Posted by Chris Loyd '82 View Post
... Legal experts confirmed this weekend that America viewed extradition as just one way of getting foreign suspects back to face trial. Rendition, or kidnapping, dates back to 19th-century bounty hunting and Washington believes it is still legitimate.
This should gladden the heart of the libertarians like Justin and Rani, who have taken this approach as the option of choice for pursuing Osama bin Laden.

Of course, what goes around ...
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.







Post#765 at 12-03-2007 05:36 PM by sean '90 [at joined Jul 2007 #posts 1,625]
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Thumbs down

I think that was an idiotic proposal. Down with all kinds of Republicans!







Post#766 at 12-04-2007 01:05 PM by Justin '77 [at Meh. joined Sep 2001 #posts 12,182]
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Quote Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon View Post
This should gladden the heart of the libertarians like Justin and Rani, who have taken this approach as the option of choice for pursuing Osama bin Laden.
Of course. You would prefer, the US bombed the shit out of Britain? I mean, that's the alternative being offered.

The issue I (and I'll be a jerk and ascribe to Rani a similar preference without asking) have is with the law the people are being charged with breaking. The vast majority of the laws for which bounties will be served are most likely wrongful.
But even in the pursuit of wrongful laws, the preferred option would be the one to damage the fewer people. You allow the fact that the US government is despicable to cloud your appraisal of what is actually a significantly ethically superior tactic.
That's unfortunate.
"Qu'est-ce que c'est que cela, la loi ? On peut donc être dehors. Je ne comprends pas. Quant à moi, suis-je dans la loi ? suis-je hors la loi ? Je n'en sais rien. Mourir de faim, est-ce être dans la loi ?" -- Tellmarch

"Человек не может снять с себя ответственности за свои поступки." - L. Tolstoy

"[it]
is no doubt obvious, the cult of the experts is both self-serving, for those who propound it, and fraudulent." - Noam Chomsky







Post#767 at 12-04-2007 02:41 PM by Marx & Lennon [at '47 cohort still lost in Falwelland joined Sep 2001 #posts 16,709]
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Quote Originally Posted by Justin '77 View Post
Quote Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon View Post
Quote Originally Posted by Chris Loyd '82 View Post
... Legal experts confirmed this weekend that America viewed extradition as just one way of getting foreign suspects back to face trial. Rendition, or kidnapping, dates back to 19th-century bounty hunting and Washington believes it is still legitimate...
This should gladden the heart of the libertarians like Justin and Rani, who have taken this approach as the option of choice for pursuing Osama bin Laden.

Of course, what goes around ...
Of course. You would prefer, the US bombed the shit out of Britain? I mean, that's the alternative being offered.

The issue I (and I'll be a jerk and ascribe to Rani a similar preference without asking) have is with the law the people are being charged with breaking. The vast majority of the laws for which bounties will be served are most likely wrongful.
But even in the pursuit of wrongful laws, the preferred option would be the one to damage the fewer people. You allow the fact that the US government is despicable to cloud your appraisal of what is actually a significantly ethically superior tactic.
That's unfortunate.
I prefer that we consider the source, and act civilly. You seem to find kidnapping a suitable alternative to extradition ... even in countries with fully developed and functioning legal systems. Just because we find it wise to punish someone for a crime that the rest of the world finds banal doesn't give us the right to grab one of their residents off the street and proceed as we will. Remember, others may feel he need to do the same, and we aren't immune to a snatch-and-grab on our soil ... nor you, on yours.

Oh, and just to set the record straight, not every country gets the nod for providing sanctuary. Some acts are universally abhorent, and must not be tolerated. Acts of war fall under different rules. So do nations that are criminal conspiracies rather that polities
Last edited by Marx & Lennon; 12-04-2007 at 02:52 PM.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.







Post#768 at 12-06-2007 01:50 PM by cbailey [at B. 1950 joined Sep 2001 #posts 1,559]
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Germany=Inflation

SPIEGEL ONLINE - December 6, 2007, 10:35 AM
URL: http://www.spiegel.de/international/...521607,00.html

CRIPPLING INFLATION
A Double Blow to Germany's Economy
By Michael Sauga and Christian Reiermann

Rising inflation in Germany has sparked concerns over economic growth. With consumer buying power plummeting, the German Central Bank may be forced to raise interest rates. Is Germany's economic boom ending before its benefits can trickle down?
German prices are rising in areas that hurt the consumer most, like oil and electricity.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel attempted to put Germans in the holiday mood last Wednesday with a veritable fireworks of good news. The country has "regained its economic strength," the chancellor announced triumphantly in her report on the government budget at Berlin's Reichstag, the seat of the German parliament, the Bundestag. Germany's "international competitiveness" is on the rise once again, she said, and fewer and fewer people should be "worried about their jobs."

As could be expected of a speech from the chancellor only a few weeks before important state parliamentary elections, Merkel rounded off her sunny assessment of Germany's economy with a statement clearly intended to generate optimism among delegates to the upcoming convention of her party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), in Hanover. "The recovery," she concluded, "is making itself felt among ordinary citizens.

Unfortunately for the chancellor, her rosy message was quickly dispelled by the headlines in newspapers that very morning, headlines that described a less than comforting reality. According to information recently issued by the Federal Office of Statistics, inflation has reached the 3 percent threshold -- for the first time in 14 years. The figure is well above the level considered acceptable by the European Central Bank.

What the chancellor studiously ignored in her speech is the fact that German citizens have been seeing inflation rising for months now. The increase in consumer prices had been so moderate for years that experts were predicting the "death of inflation."

But now prices are shooting up, and in places where it hurts Germans the most. Homeowners and renters are being hit with price hikes, some in the double digits, for heating oil, natural gas and electricity. Businesses face hefty surcharges for leasing additional trucks to transport their products. Drivers have seen so many repeated price increases at the pump that the German automobile club ADAC is calling for a "gasoline summit" with the chancellor.

Late last week, it was announced that more than 300 German electric utilities plan yet another price hike next year, this time by up to 34 percent.

Most of all, prices are rising for those ordinary goods that have been becoming less costly for years, so much so that consumers were taking sinking prices for granted. On everything from vegetables to fruit juice, and flour to cheese, consumers in recent months are suddenly faced with prices significantly higher than they were in the past.

The supermarket price of a liter of milk, €0.55 ($0.80) a year ago, is now €0.75. In the same time period, the price of grapes has increased by 20 percent and that of cauliflower by 33 percent. Butter is 46 percent more expensive than it was a year ago, and for other dairy products like curds, retailers in some regions are reporting "supply bottlenecks" and "stockpiling."

Germans react quickly when they perceive a threat to the value of their money. The experiences of the early 1920s, when a pound of butter cost 4 trillion marks, has firmly imprinted the fear of inflation into the German genetic code. Since then, maintaining stable prices has been a central tenet of German economic policy. Those who sought to violate this unwritten rule quickly felt the wrath of the central bank and of voters -- like the Social Democratic government of former Chancellor Helmut Schmidt, whose administration saw inflation rise above 7 percent in 1981.

Seven percent inflation is still a long way off, but the rate at which prices are currently rising has surprised all experts. Only a few weeks ago, economists were convinced that, for the first time in years, German workers could finally look forward to rising real income. But it is now becoming clear that price inflation will outpace wage growth once again this year, a combination that is especially tough on low-income workers and retirees. Axel Weber, the chairman of the Bundesbank, Germany's central bank, warns of an "unsettling rise in prices across the board."

The government is also worried. Although experts at the ministries of finance and economics are not overly concerned about the rising inflation rate alone, they are worried that the combination of inflation, an international financial crisis and the strong euro will weigh heavily on the German economy. "Each factor alone is not very dangerous," says Simon Johnson, chief economist with the International Monetary Fund, "but together they produce a menacing mix that could put a significant damper on the outlook for growth throughout Europe."

If the pessimists are right, the government could already face daunting challenges by next year. Instead of enjoying a solid upturn, Germany's grand coalition government of left-leaning Social Democrats and conservative Christian Democrats would have to make adjustments for less growth, higher interest rates and shrinking tax revenues.

Their concerns are justified. A troubling combination of causes is behind the price increases of recent months. The price of oil, for example, has risen by close to 40 percent since the beginning of the year, with oil now at close to €60 a barrel.

Higher crude oil prices have serious repercussions on the overall price structure of the economy. The retail costs of petroleum-based products, like gasoline, diesel fuel and heating oil, rise virtually in tandem with prices on the spot markets. The price of natural gas, traditionally tied to that of oil, also rises when crude oil becomes more expensive.

Growing demand in the European Union's new member states and Asia's emerging economies also leads to higher prices in German supermarkets. Eastern Europeans, in particular, are taking advantage of their newfound wealth, and are buying large quantities of dairy products from Germany. Nowadays, German cheese is as much a fixture on supermarket shelves in Prague as Czech beer is in Germany. But Eastern Europe's growing demand for German food and dairy products translates into shortages in German refrigerators.

The consequences are inevitable. The high demand for German products abroad and short supply at home invariably lead to higher prices for German consumers.

The phenomenon shows that Germans are not only competing for jobs and high-tech products, but also for their share of such ordinary products as cheese.

This development is indicative of a turn in the tide of globalization. Until now, economic activity in the world's emerging economies tended to depress prices, at least in industrialized nations. They flooded global markets with their cheap, mass-produced products -- from toys to textiles to tools. Heightened competition with traditional, Western manufacturers ensured that prices were kept under control.

This effect is beginning to wane, though. On the one hand, India and China are beginning to sell more expensive products. On the other hand, the increasingly affluent middle class in these countries creates demand on global markets, driving up prices.

Nevertheless, a significant share of the current wave of price increases is homegrown. Those responsible are sitting, in full view of the public, on the government bench in the Bundestag, especially Chancellor Merkel and Finance Minister Peer Steinbrück. At the beginning of the year, the grand coalition enacted the biggest increase in the value-added tax (VAT) in postwar German history. This reduces the purchasing power of the euro, because merchants have raised their prices to offset the tax increase. "One percentage point of the current inflation rate is attributable to the increase in the VAT," says Joachim Scheide, an economic expert with the Kiel Institute for the Global Economy. "Without it, inflation would be at only 2 percent."

In a highly favorable economic environment, it made sense to impose a higher tax on consumers. The German economy had already recovered in 2006. Unemployment was down and the employed were less concerned about losing their jobs. But if people feel secure and begin earning more, consumption goes up, even when prices are rising. This, in turn, encourages merchants to raise their prices even beyond a level that would have been justified by the VAT increase.

The economic recovery, higher commodity prices and the tax increases are all reasons for inflation, and yet they do not tell the full story. For inflation to pervade the entire economy, more money must be in circulation than the economy needs to complete its transactions. The European Central Bank (ECB) made sure that this was the case by keeping interest rates at historically low levels for years in an effort to stimulate the economy.

The ECB pumps money into the economic cycle so that its price -- interest rates -- remains relatively low. The flipside of this cheap money policy is that it provides the economy with an abundance of cash. In recent years the volume of money in circulation was periodically growing at double-digit rates. With its policies, the ECB essentially laid the foundation for the current and future price increases.

The effects of inflation are not always damaging. Inflation can even be beneficial in the short term. For instance, German companies currently enjoy a competitive advantage over their Dutch competitors, because real interest rates -- interest rates adjusted for inflation -- are now lower in Germany than they are in the Netherlands. Although the same prime rate set by the ECB applies in both economies, prices are rising at a faster rate in Germany, reducing the cost of borrowing.

On the other hand, price increases also create serious drawbacks for businesses. The higher wages they are paying their employees, who are also potential customers, are being completely consumed by inflation. Furthermore, consumers who are forced to spend more on gasoline and heating oil than they did last year end up cutting back on discretionary spending -- for things like restaurants and Christmas presents. Retailers are already complaining about a drop in consumption.

This declining consumption could throw off the predictions of economists, who base their still relatively optimistic forecasts on the assumption of growing domestic demand. But if rising prices put a damper on demand, the outlook for the economy as a whole will worsen.

An intervention by the central bank poses the greatest threat to the economy. If it believes that prices are spinning out of control, it must intervene. Despite the smoldering crisis in the financial markets and the rising exchange rate of the euro, the ECB could very well raise interest rates.

The consequences could be fatal. Higher interest rates make it more difficult to run businesses. Production facilities that are less profitable than monetary investments are closed and capital investments are cancelled. This could ultimately lead to job losses, economic slowdown and, in a worst-case scenario, the economy sliding into recession.

The central bank is "in a tough spot," says economic guru Beatrice Weder di Mauro, who belongs to the government's economic advisory panel. By leaving interest rates untouched, central bankers further encourage inflation. If they raise interest rates they could very well send the entire European economy into a tailspin.

Experts are worried that the ECB could ultimately take both approaches. This could lead to what economists call stagflation, a disastrous combination of rising prices and declining growth rates. European nations last suffered from stagflation in the 1970s and 80s.

At the cost of ever-rising inflation, governments and central bankers at the time tried to stimulate growth, only to look on as their economies plunged into recession when they were abruptly forced to stop printing money.

The situation is unlikely to spin that far out of control this time. On the one hand, the pressure on prices in Germany is decreasing because the effects of the VAT increase will expire next year. On the other hand, emerging economies like China and India are taking noticeable steps to cool down their overheated economies.

Nevertheless, experts agree that the recent price increases will contribute to a slowing down of the German economy. The question is: by how much?

While Hans-Werner Sinn, the president of the renowned Ifo Institute for Economic Research, believes that the economic slowdown will be brief, Martin Hüfner, the former chief economist at HypoVereinsbank, warns of a "significant impact on the economy." Hüfner fears that the extent to which current higher prices will reduce consumer purchasing power has "not even been reflected in the financial markets yet," and that markets could soon face "the next rude awaken."

This could happen if companies and trade unions are forced to make adjustments for rising inflation. Once they embark on a cycle of competing wage and price demands, an "inflation mentality" could return, warns Kiel-based economic expert Joachim Scheide. The effects of this upward spiral would be fatal, as the fear of inflation stimulates inflation.

According to Scheide, the ECB, under its current chairman, Jean-Claude Trichet, has only one choice: raise interest rates to wipe out expectations of inflation before they can take hold. This would deal a double blow to the economy, as it would cause the euro to continue to rise, putting even more of a strain on the economy.

Frank Bsirske, the president of Germany's service sector union Ver.di, recently showed why such concerns are justified. In recent years, Bsirske told a group of hospital employees in Stuttgart that the effects of wage increases have repeatedly been obliterated by hefty price increases. This, he told his audience, is why employees must achieve "significant real pay increases" during the upcoming public sector wage negotiations.

Bsirske also revealed how he expects workers in the service sector to achieve their goals. A major public sector strike, the head of Ver.di predicted, is "very likely" in the coming year
"To announce that there must be no criticism of the president, or that we are to stand by the president right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public." -- Theodore Roosevelt







Post#769 at 12-08-2007 04:48 PM by sean '90 [at joined Jul 2007 #posts 1,625]
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I think a restoration of the pre-Euro currency map would help Europe. I do NOT want to see Germany go down the path it did in the last Crisis. Pray for Deustchland, ppl.







Post#770 at 12-09-2007 02:29 PM by Steven McTowelie [at Cary, NC joined Jun 2002 #posts 535]
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Smile here you go, sean '90

EU 'should expand beyond Europe'

Foreign Secretary David Miliband has suggested the European Union should work towards including Russia, Middle Eastern and North African countries.
He said enlargement was "our most powerful tool" for extending stability.

In his first major speech on the UK's relationship with Europe, he said the EU would not become a "superpower" but should be a "role model" for the world.

It could be a "model power of regional co-operation" dedicated to free trade, the environment and tackling extremism.







Post#771 at 12-09-2007 05:23 PM by sean '90 [at joined Jul 2007 #posts 1,625]
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Quote Originally Posted by Steven McTowelie View Post
EU 'should expand beyond Europe'

Foreign Secretary David Miliband has suggested the European Union should work towards including Russia, Middle Eastern and North African countries.
He said enlargement was "our most powerful tool" for extending stability.

In his first major speech on the UK's relationship with Europe, he said the EU would not become a "superpower" but should be a "role model" for the world.

It could be a "model power of regional co-operation" dedicated to free trade, the environment and tackling extremism.
David Miliband is an arrogant little prick! The people of Europe HATE the E.U.! Down with the E.U.!(TM)







Post#772 at 12-11-2007 02:51 PM by Cynic Hero '86 [at Upstate New York joined Jul 2006 #posts 1,285]
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Quote Originally Posted by Odin View Post
The explaination for my dates:

1804/5: Napoleon declaring himself emperor and his defeat at Trafalgar

1830: The fall of Charles X and the end of the Bourbon Dynasty.

1848: The Liberal Revolution in Germany and Austria ends in disillusionment. The French monarchy is overthrown.

1858: French Emperor Louis Bonaparte decides to support Italian inification after an attempted assasination against him.

1871: Prussian King crowned German Emperor

1890-1910: I'm not well read on this time period, but I know that this period was one of labor movements and the rise of Marxst political parties.

1931: the Great Depression hits Europe

1950: Europe recovers enough from WW2 to shift from a 4T to a 1T mindset

1968: Student radicalism

1989: fall of the Berlin Wall, Neo-Liberalism becomes dogma in many circles.

Europes cycle seems to be as follows:

4T: 1680-1710
1T: 1710-1735
2T: 1735-1760
3T: 1760-1783
4T: 1783-1802
1T: 1802-1819
2T: 1819-1837
3T: 1837-1859
4T: 1860-1871
1T: 1871-1888
2T: 1888-1908
3T: 1908-1930
4T: 1930-1950
1T: 1950-1968
2T: 1968-1988
3T: 1988-present
Last edited by Cynic Hero '86; 12-13-2007 at 10:43 AM.







Post#773 at 12-11-2007 07:07 PM by catfishncod [at The People's Republic of Cambridge & Possum Town, MS joined Apr 2005 #posts 984]
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12-11-2007, 07:07 PM #773
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Quote Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86 View Post
Europes cycle seems to be as follows:
I don't think your system quite holds, because I'm not sure all of Europe -- or even Western Europe -- was on the same cycle before the conquests of Napoleon. Even then there were some variations, but the simultaneous eruptions of mass protest in 1848 and again in 1968 argue for synchronicity of cycles.

Working backwards:
3T: 1989-20?? (fall of the Berlin Wall to unknown trigger)
2T: 1968-1989 (unrest of '68 to fall of the Berlin Wall)
1T: 1947-1968 (end of postwar emergency economy to unrest of '68)
4T: 1929-1947 (Great Depression to the end of post-WWII emergency)
3T: 1914-1929 (the Guns of August to Black Thursday)
2T: 1893-1914 (the Panic of '93 to the Guns of August)
1T: 1873-1893 (the Spanish Republic to the Panic of '93)
4T: 1861-1873 (the Italian Unification wars to the First Spanish Republic)
3T: 184?-1861 (... to the Italian Unification Wars)
2T: 182?-184?
1T:

Here is where the timeline splits, because the First Turning began in different places -- this was determined in turn by when the effects of the American Revolution triggered Fourth Turnings.

* America's 4T had already begun in 1774, but England was a half-turning off by this time and continued in a 3T way into the late 1780's.

* France went 4T with a huge bang in 1789, but events in France did not force the hand of the other powers until the French declared war on Austria, April 20, 1791, in order to conquer the Austrian Netherlands (proto-Belgium) and stop the emigration of nobles there.

* It was not until Austria and Prussia invaded in response that the Revolution crystallized into the French Republic. Treaties were hurriedly conducted that reorganized much of Europe's borders overnight -- all other matters paled in the face of a nation openly advocating mass regicide and abolishment of aristocracy. Thus Germany went 4T in 1791.

* England didn't until 1793 when Louis XVI was executed after a show trial -- when France looked to be on its way to constitutional monarchy like Britain, or even a responsible republic like those wretched ungrateful rebellious colonists, Britain supported revolution, but Robespierre was not to be borne.

* Poland rebelled in 1794 under Koscuiuzsko, but was crushed and partitioned.

* Italy was a no-show until 1796, when Napoleon invaded it.

* Spain kept side-stepping all these problems until 1807-8, when Napoleon first invaded Portugal and then double-crossed Spain herself. Thus Spain was, on this cycle, nearly a full turning behind everyone else. (Spain went 3T in 1788 with the death of Carlos III, a full turning behind France. This was due to the War of the Spanish Succession, which devestated Spain but left France untouched.)

Cycles previous to the Napoleonic cycle have to be analyzed in terms of the interaction of national cycles. 1815 was the first year that every nation in Europe could be said to be on the same generational page -- early to mid First Turning. This was remarked upon at the time and later, though not in such precise terms.
'81, 30/70 X/Millie, trying to live in both Red and Blue America... "Catfish 'n Cod"







Post#774 at 12-11-2007 10:53 PM by Cynic Hero '86 [at Upstate New York joined Jul 2006 #posts 1,285]
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12-11-2007, 10:53 PM #774
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Quote Originally Posted by catfishncod View Post
I don't think your system quite holds, because I'm not sure all of Europe -- or even Western Europe -- was on the same cycle before the conquests of Napoleon. Even then there were some variations, but the simultaneous eruptions of mass protest in 1848 and again in 1968 argue for synchronicity of cycles.

Working backwards:
3T: 1989-20?? (fall of the Berlin Wall to unknown trigger)
2T: 1968-1989 (unrest of '68 to fall of the Berlin Wall)
1T: 1947-1968 (end of postwar emergency economy to unrest of '68)
4T: 1929-1947 (Great Depression to the end of post-WWII emergency)
3T: 1914-1929 (the Guns of August to Black Thursday)
2T: 1893-1914 (the Panic of '93 to the Guns of August)
1T: 1873-1893 (the Spanish Republic to the Panic of '93)
4T: 1861-1873 (the Italian Unification wars to the First Spanish Republic)
3T: 184?-1861 (... to the Italian Unification Wars)
2T: 182?-184?
1T:

Here is where the timeline splits, because the First Turning began in different places -- this was determined in turn by when the effects of the American Revolution triggered Fourth Turnings.

* America's 4T had already begun in 1774, but England was a half-turning off by this time and continued in a 3T way into the late 1780's.

* France went 4T with a huge bang in 1789, but events in France did not force the hand of the other powers until the French declared war on Austria, April 20, 1791, in order to conquer the Austrian Netherlands (proto-Belgium) and stop the emigration of nobles there.

* It was not until Austria and Prussia invaded in response that the Revolution crystallized into the French Republic. Treaties were hurriedly conducted that reorganized much of Europe's borders overnight -- all other matters paled in the face of a nation openly advocating mass regicide and abolishment of aristocracy. Thus Germany went 4T in 1791.

* England didn't until 1793 when Louis XVI was executed after a show trial -- when France looked to be on its way to constitutional monarchy like Britain, or even a responsible republic like those wretched ungrateful rebellious colonists, Britain supported revolution, but Robespierre was not to be borne.

* Poland rebelled in 1794 under Koscuiuzsko, but was crushed and partitioned.

* Italy was a no-show until 1796, when Napoleon invaded it.

* Spain kept side-stepping all these problems until 1807-8, when Napoleon first invaded Portugal and then double-crossed Spain herself. Thus Spain was, on this cycle, nearly a full turning behind everyone else. (Spain went 3T in 1788 with the death of Carlos III, a full turning behind France. This was due to the War of the Spanish Succession, which devestated Spain but left France untouched.)

Cycles previous to the Napoleonic cycle have to be analyzed in terms of the interaction of national cycles. 1815 was the first year that every nation in Europe could be said to be on the same generational page -- early to mid First Turning. This was remarked upon at the time and later, though not in such precise terms.
I used my dates with focus on england and france. The seven years war (1754/56-1763) seens to be an awakening/unraveling transition period.







Post#775 at 12-14-2007 06:35 AM by Tristan [at Melbourne, Australia joined Oct 2003 #posts 1,249]
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12-14-2007, 06:35 AM #775
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Location
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Quote Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86 View Post
Europes cycle seems to be as follows:


1T: 1871-1888
2T: 1888-1908
3T: 1908-1930
4T: 1930-1950
1T: 1950-1968
2T: 1968-1988
3T: 1988-present
From a limited reading of European History I would agree on that timeline. The last high and awakening started in Europe later than it did in the USA. Strauss and Howe made observations about that.

1968 was a far more important year in Europe than it was in the USA. Apart from the awakening starting with a bang, it was the year of Prague Spring and May 68. The European peers of the Boomers can be called the Generation of 68.
"The f****** place should be wiped off the face of the earth".

David Bowie on Los Angeles
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