Subject: The 20 Fat Years and the 20 Lean Years

Any fool can make money in a Bull Market.
The last 20 years have seen stock prices rise on average 18% per year. This was due to unique financial and demographic circumstances. Don't expect the next 20 years to be like the last 20 ("Previous performance not indicative of future results." as the mutual fund prospectus is fond of saying.) Even Warren Buffet says not to expect more than 6 or 7% a year in the best of circumstances. And I don't expect the best of cicumstances.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Robert on 2002-04-26 18:51 ]</font>

Use of Retirement Funds to Widen Debt-Limit Fight from the 3 April 2002 number of the Washington Post.


The government will put employee pension funds into non-interest bearing accounts to <S>kite</S> manage it's finacial affairs. Government will be run as a business. But, is Enron really the best model?

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-040202offshore.story

Crow, anyone?


More Crow, Please
By Robert J. Samuelson
Wednesday, April 10, 2002; Page A23

"<big>I</big>t's time to eat crow. I have relentlessly suggested that the aftermath of the 1990s' economic boom would be grim. We had binged; indigestion was inevitable. The recession would be stubborn, the recovery grudging. Well, the facts are otherwise. The economy grew slightly in late 2001; growth in the first quarter of 2002 is expected at a 4 percent to 5 percent annual rate. In March the number of jobs rose 58,000 -- a tiny gain but nothing like the average monthly losses of 144,000 from last March through January."


Acorns keep falling on my head, but just like a guy who always fears the worst instead; Whining is for me! :smile:

Subject: 4 and 1/2 percent GDP Growth?

Never happen.

Subject: I'm More Worried About Al Greenspan Than Al Queda

Big Al says he's not going to raise interest rates anytime soon. The reason is that he doesn't dare. This so called "recovery" has been bought with huge amounts of DEBT. Total Aggregate Debt went up by 2 Trillion Dollars last year. This means that Al and his banking system lent out 2 Trillion Dollars in funny money last year. This vast amount of counterfeit money was used to keep the GDP, Real Estate and Stock Market balloons BARELY inflated. If he raises interest rates this will make it more difficult to borrow money and all three balloons will follow their natural tendency to deflate. I bet the next Fed rate move will be a cut rather than a hike.

Al is in such a delicate position that at the last Fed meeting he actually discussed the idea of the Federal Reserve Banks buying stocks in the Stock Market in order to keep the Stock Market Balloon from deflating. About five years ago in his monthly column in Strategic Investment, James Dale Davidson was speculating on how Greenspan was going to prevent a Stock Market crash. Half jokingly Davidson wrote: "What's he going to do? Monetize the S&P 500?". Well, Al is thinking about taking Davidson's advice. Al would have credit money created out of nowhere and he would buy stocks with it when the market gets shakey. There's nothing to stop him from doing this, the Fed is a private bank and can do most anything it wants. More than anything else this reminds me of the "organised buying support" that went on back before the Crash in '29. J.P. Morgan and a bunch of the other big banks tried to shore up the New York Stock Exchange in late 1929 by buying stocks together to create demand on the exchange. As we know it eventually failed to stop the Crash. Al will probably be more successful, at least for a while. But one wonders what he will do with large amounts of increasingly worthless stock?

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Robert on 2002-04-20 12:15 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Robert on 2002-04-22 18:52 ]</font>

Belknap Lives! or the Great White Father's Tongue is Still Forked.

Well, the economy rose at 5.8%, but the mood has not improved one bit:

http://www.usatoday.com/money/econom...-sentiment.htm

http://www.usatoday.com/money/econom...-04-26-gdp.htm

Subject: Another missive from the Ministry of Truth.

I doubt that the economy rose by 5.8%. What they do is take the quarterly figures and annualize them. Most people don't know about or understand this deceptive practice. So GDP rose by 1.45% in the first quarter and they multiplied by four coming up with 5.8%. By the way they had to revise last year's (2001) GDP figures downward but they didn't ballyhoo that bit of news.

In any case no matter how much GDP rose, it only means the CPI/GDP bubble INFLATED by that much. Think about it. In the absence of inflation GDP would remain STATIC. The General Price Level would NEVER rise.

I'm as skeptical as you are, Robert, concerning this latest GDP report - although one thing about it is interesting: Despite the fact the quarterly figures are allegedly "seasonally adjusted," there has been a marked bias in favor of the 4th-quarter growth rate tending to be the strongest, at least in the last several years or so. Yet here we have an unusually strong 1st-quarter number. Hmmmmm.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Buster Brown on 2002-04-28 07:23 ]</font>

For those of you who have taken up the 401(k) superstition, The (GREAT) 401(k) H()AX by Mr. William Wolman and Ms. Anne Colamosca might be worth your while.


It comes out in May. Amazon Link HTH

Subject: Fainting Spell

If you're wondering what is causing the latest fainting spell in the Stock Market it appears as if foreigners are picking up their marbles and going home. This is causing the Stock Market to go down and the dollar to drop. When you sell dollar denominated financial assets and convert the dollars to another currency this causes demand for the dollar to lessen. Demand for dollars to buy our financial assets has kept our economy propped up for years. What currency are they buying? Gold! Gold has rallyed by about 12% recently. Is this IT? Is this the Big One? Who knows? Keep watching!

Subject: The Dollar.

The Dollar is in a dive. Gold and silver are rallying.

Subject: Gold

Gold finished up $4 per ounce today.

Subject: Bob Prechter

Elliot Wave guru Bob Prechter is publishing his latest book CONQUER THE CRASH this month.
He sees the same thing I do: a devastating Crash followed by a soul killing Depression. Bob is by no means a dummy, he predicted the beginning of the Bull Market in 1978 four years before it started in 1982. Admittedly he did make a mistake in not realizing how long and how huge the Stock Market Bubble would become.

Read an excellent and informative interview with Bob by Jim Puplava at:

http://www.financialsense.com/transc...s/Prechter.htm

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Robert on 2002-06-02 21:48 ]</font>

Subject: Market to Al.

AAAAAALLLLLLLL!!!!! HHHHHEEEEELLLLLLPPPPPP!
Where are you Al?!?!

<center>
<FONT SIZE="+1">WHAT WILL STOP THE SLIDE?</FONT></center>



It won't Al this time, it'll be Bush, and rebuilding the military and intelligence agencies that Comrade Clinton had decimated in the nineties.

Subject: Deflation

Sorry Marc, that won't do it. There are vast deterministic forces working here that are beyond anyone's control. It would be like an ant trying to stop an avalanch with a toothpick.

Oops, I misplaced $ 4 billion or so.

I have a question for the readers of this thread. I have been speaking to a friend about the possibility of going into the financial planning business. My background includes enough finance for me to know I am good at it. I have also run my own business, so that is not the concern. I do realize I would need more training/schooling and am willing to do that also.

My question is this: Considering what we know about the history of the market, and the theory by S&H, what is the long term outlook for a career as a Personal Financial Planner? Opinions inside and outside the industry both welcome.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/020627/autos_gm_1.html

So...what do you think will happen if there ARE accounting irregularities at GM?

If GM goes, then Smirker should consider another line of work.

Some financial guy was on Television ranting tonight about "cooked books". I find that a much cooler term than "accounting irregularities". Let's call a Martha Stuart Home products spade a shovel.

:razz:

Other people's money, other people's accounting. It would seem that the U.S. Government was and is being run like a business.

Virgil,

LOL. I don't suppose the Reaganites who wanted government to be run like a business meant it to turn out this way.