Maybe it's business that's just lately being run like Government? Parties in long, intimate relationships often end up taking on each other's characteristics, you know...

Head Pot warns Kettles on Blackness

Corporat America is "trying to fudge the numbers."

Corporate America is "trying to slip a billion here, a billion here."

"outrageous."

President Bush certainly has a way with words .

Perhaps, the Pentagon should be investigated for the $2 trillion that was somehow "lost" in 2001.

I do think Bush?s huge tax cut has had no effect on the economy; tax cuts can only simulate the economy, if people are willing to spend the extra money. To simulate the economy, Bush should have done either more government spending which would have created jobs (increased expenditure for education or defense) or like the Australian federal government did back last year, when it offered first time home buyers an $AUS 7, 000 grant, that grant simulated the housing market which had extra effects on the economy. A classic example was the rearmament spending that dragged the world out of the great depression.

On fudge, the great superstition HTH

Subject: Financial Manias

I really can't understand what everyone is so huffy about. It's been perfectly obvious (at least to me) for at least ten years we were in the greatest financial mania of all time. Fraud and theft are standard behavior during a financial mania. In fact fraud and theft are ESSENTIAL parts of a mania. Study history. 1929, the 1870's Railroad Bubble, the Mississippi Bubble, Tulipmania, the list goes on and on. The only unusual thing is the SIZE of the thing. (This time it REALLY IS different, it's GIGANTIC!). The latest figures are in over at the Federal Reserve Website. Total Aggregate Debt is now 30 TRILLION dollars ($30,000,000,000,000 (Let's see, did I get enough zeros in there?)) A large amount of this funny money created by Al Green$pan and his Federal Reserve was used to pump up the Stock Market Bubble. If you borrow a bunch of money and throw it into the Market, don't you think some of the grifters, touts and con men on the Street are going to grab it and stuff it into their pocket's? We are now relearning the hard way what our great grandparents learned 73 years ago. I guess you could entitle it "The Babyboomers learn about fraud".

The total value of the market reached 20 trillion two years ago. According to the Federal Reserve Website the value of the market is now 15 trillion. So 5 trillion or 25% has been lost. Will it get worse? Will there be a Crash? No one knows. But I have a feeling the Good Old Days are over.

Some <a href=http://www.geocities.com/joncarson/stocks.html>charts</a> I made trying to link the behavior of the markets with generational theory. The 32-year cycle in P/E ratios does not fit.

But my review of years in which the markets were "over-valued" or "under-valued" does fit a little better. Second turnings seem to represent an under-valued market. When the second turning peters out, the market reaches a value that is about in-line with the long-term model for the S&P 500's behavior. The third turning seems to be marked by exuberance reaching a fevered intensity by the end.

Of course, there's not enough data to completely predict if these phenomenona will continue to repeat, but it makes me wonder...

Subject: Controlled Crash

It looks like we're having sort of a controlled crash. Kind of like in the movies when the car or airplane or whatever goes plowing through the fruit market and the stuntmen jump out of the way and everything moves in slow motion. The Bears and shorts must be making money hand over fist. This sort of environment suits them to a "t". Go short, ride her down, then stage a sucker's rally to lure the longs back in and do it again. Pretty nice if you can go long and short (or short and long) at the same time but sssslllloooowwww torture if you're the average knotheaded mutual fund "investor" (that word cracks me up!). Curiously no panic so far. I ascribe this to the maturity (and desperation) of the Babyboomers. After all they've already been through one crash back in '87. I suppose they're thinking Uncle Al will step in and save the day like he did back then. Not only that their only chance to retire will depend on the Mania coming back with its 18% returns every year. Who knows, maybe there IS a Santy Claus, Virginia.

Speaking of Al, where the heck is he? A few weeks ago he was mumbling something about the FED buying stocks to stabilize the market. With the kind of cash Al can pull out of midair he could make the market jump up and down like frogs in a dynamite pond. Maybe he's playing it cool, waiting for the general outcry for someone to "do something!" before he swings into action. After all, with all the obvious market manipulation by Enron, and Global Crossing and Worldcom and Martha Stewart (Martha Stewart?!?!?!), maybe he doesn't want to be accused of TOO egregious behavior unless he knows he'll get away with it.

Why roll the money presses; Mr. Lawrence Kudlow has given us a precription of bombing our way out of economic doldrums. WWIV as economic bailout? "Pure Evil" opines Mr. Justin Raimondo in the 3 July 2002 number of Antiwar.com.

Any predictions with regard to the real estate bubble? No movement there as yet.

On 2002-07-03 15:06, Neisha '67 wrote:
Any predictions with regard to the real estate bubble? No movement there as yet.

Hey, maybe the Seattle RE market bubble will burst just as the hiring freeze at WSDOT lifts (probably next July, for the 2003-05 fiscal year). Wouldn't that be just peachy? :smile:

If the same two trends hit Portland, that would be fine by me!

Real Estate Bubble.

The Real Estate Bubble will be a harder bubble to burst. After all, unless you're homeless you have to have somewhere to live. If you sell your house you'll just have to turn around and buy another one or you're out on the street. The Stock Market Bubble is really the most dangerous bubble. People don't really need stocks. The temptation to panic and sell causing a Crash is always there.

The essential element for a real estate bust is unemployment. When people lose their jobs and have to default on the mortgage, then you'll see a large drop in the price of real estate. If this is the beginning of a depression then it will take more than 10% unemployment to cause a real estate bust.

Subject : Market to Al: I've fallen and I can't get up!
Alllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll!!!!!!!!!
HHHHHHHHHHHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEELLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLP!!

<center><FONT SIZE="+3">Ooooo Yech!</FONT>
</center>

This is a test to see if I can post a picture here.



Hope this works.

Another test...

[img]yoshi+kimba1201.jpg[/img]

Sorry about that, I guess you can't paste an image from personal .jpg files. (just a picture of my dog and cat, if you're curious). If anyone knows how to do this, let me know.

Sorry about the interruption. Please carry on.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Heliotrope on 2002-07-10 18:57 ]</font>

On 2002-07-10 18:26, Marc Lamb wrote:



<center><FONT SIZE="+3">Ooooo Yech!</FONT>
</center>

CHICK-a-CHICK-a.....CHICK-a-CHICK-AHHHHHH......:smile:

"Sorry about that, I guess you can't paste an image from personal .jpg files. (just a picture of my dog and cat, if you're curious). If anyone knows how to do this, let me know."

That wasn't your problem, Ms. Susan. It's your address that's incomplete:

You put yoshi+kimba1201.jpg in the "img" brackets. You're missing the internet address as in http://home.att.net/~wizardoz/nplhome.jpg

Since you probably don't have one (you could start a web site like Mr. Saari did), you can't post the picture.

Go back and just edit out the stuff in the post (leaving it blank) and nobody will even know how you manage to screw up our wonderful Financial thread! :smile:

On 2002-07-10 19:32, Marc Lamb wrote:


"Sorry about that, I guess you can't paste an image from personal .jpg files. (just a picture of my dog and cat, if you're curious). If anyone knows how to do this, let me know."

That wasn't your problem, Ms. Susan. It's your address that's incomplete:

You put yoshi+kimba1201.jpg in the "img" brackets. You're missing the internet address as in http://home.att.net/~wizardoz/nplhome.jpg

Since you probably don't have one (you could start a web site like Mr. Saari did), you can't post the picture.

Go back and just edit out the stuff in the post (leaving it blank) and nobody will even know how you manage to screw up our wonderful Financial thread! :smile:

:grin:: :lol:

Sigh. In these dark clouds, perhaps there is a silver lining, or perhaps a <a href=http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?symb=$GOX&sid=16703&freq=1&time=8&sit eid=yhoo>gold</a> one.

I noticed somewhere a website that talked about a cyclical approach to the markets, similar to S&H, although not about the same things.

It showed that from the beginning of the century, there was a period until around 1910 where the markets were flat. In the 1910s it began to pick up speed for a huge bull market in the 1920s. It crashed and was flat in the 30's and 40's again, picking up in the late 40's and continuing a new bull market until 1966. After 1966 the markets coasted downward and bottommed out in 1974. Then they slowly gained but were still farily flat until the early 80's, when it became a bull market. It continued into the 1990s when the markets skyrocketed, peaking in January 2000. Since then, the markets have been slowly downward. Notice the trend?

Also, there are struggles to stay above milestones, such as 100, 1000, and 10000. In the 1910's, the markets reached 100, but fell to just below 100, and couldn't really stay above it until the mid 1920's. The same happened with 1000 in the 1970's, until that was finally left behind in the early 1980's. Now is it happening with 10,000, having gone quite above it, but now it is staying below it?

The trend is about 17-21 years of bull market, and 17-21 years of generally bear market. This is why the 1987 crash did not ruin everything and the 1929 did. The 1929 was after about 20 years of bull market, while the 1987 was only about 5 years into one. I think we are entering the next period of flat markets, as happened last from 1966-1982, and before that from 1929-1949. The bull from 1982-2000 is over. Just as were the markets from 1949-1966.

Subject: Conquer the Crash!

All this stuff and more is covered in Elliot Wave Theorist Bob Prechter's new book Conquer the Crash. This book is MUST reading for habitues of this Website.

In the book Bob explains why the Bull Market occured. The Federal Reserve's hand in fostering the Bubble and the likely course of any Crash and Depression. In the last half of the book (the book is really two books in one) Bob gives SPECIFIC investment advice to protect yourself in the coming deflationary crash.

As for your mention of gold Bob does recommend owning some gold and silver but be forewarned that these assets were ALSO somewhat inflated in value by the gigantic inflations of the 60's, 70's, 80's and 90's and may deflate also in the initial stages of a deflationary bust.

Bob does recommend CASH. Get liquid and STAY liquid and be CAREFUL where you park your cash. If you give it to the bank they'll just lend to some knothead to buy a SUV or some stocks in a falling market. (No jokes about being heavily invested in Folger's cans buried in the back yard please although maybe that isn't a bad idea.)

I cannot recommend this book too much! Go over to Amazon and order it right now!

http://www.commondreams.org/headlines02/0714-04.htm