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Thread: Financial Crisis - Page 35







Post#851 at 05-28-2003 12:56 AM by Earl and Mooch [at Delaware - we pave paradise and put up parking lots joined Sep 2002 #posts 2,106]
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05-28-2003, 12:56 AM #851
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Quote Originally Posted by David '47
The solution is simple:
  1. All, or almost all, Boomers continue to work ... and work ... and work ...
  2. All, or almost all, Boomers die.
  3. Make absolutely certain that items 1 and 2 end simultaneously.
Problem solved.
Until the Great Devaluation hits. And it will, with a vengeance.







Post#852 at 05-31-2003 11:51 PM by Rain Man [at Bendigo, Australia joined Jun 2001 #posts 1,303]
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Quote Originally Posted by madscientist
An economic 'menu of pain'
Given the 3T mindset of the people who are advocating these tax cuts, they are hoping a few years of 4% annual economic growth year (which could happen), that was the rate the US economy was growing in the 1990's) will wipe out the budget deficits.

I think huge federal budget deficits will occur well into the future because Bush and his political fellow travelers will be asking for more tax cuts in the future. The administration?s ultimate tax reform plan will be to abolish all federal income tax and replace it with a European style Value Added Tax.







Post#853 at 06-01-2003 10:30 AM by Earl and Mooch [at Delaware - we pave paradise and put up parking lots joined Sep 2002 #posts 2,106]
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Quote Originally Posted by Tristan Jones
[The administration?s ultimate tax reform plan will be to abolish all federal income tax and replace it with a European style Value Added Tax.
Except they have income tax there too.







Post#854 at 06-16-2003 05:42 PM by zilch [at joined Nov 2001 #posts 3,491]
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U.S. stocks end sharply higher on recovery hopes
Reuters
Monday June 16, 4:33 pm ET
By Vivian Chu

NEW YORK, June 16 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Monday, pushing the blue-chip Dow to its highest level in almost a year, after a report on New York state's manufacturing sector proved surprisingly strong and sparked hopes that the U.S. economy will recover later this year.


No news here. The 4Tish bears will just say more of the same: Phony fourth, phony recovery, phony hopes, phony, phony, phony.

Except our 4T claims aren't phony. After all, the sky's gotta fall sometime. :wink:







Post#855 at 06-17-2003 07:44 AM by Marx & Lennon [at '47 cohort still lost in Falwelland joined Sep 2001 #posts 16,709]
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Quote Originally Posted by ....
U.S. stocks end sharply higher on recovery hopes
Reuters
Monday June 16, 4:33 pm ET
By Vivian Chu

NEW YORK, June 16 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Monday, pushing the blue-chip Dow to its highest level in almost a year, after a report on New York state's manufacturing sector proved surprisingly strong and sparked hopes that the U.S. economy will recover later this year.

No news here. The 4Tish bears will just say more of the same: Phony fourth, phony recovery, phony hopes, phony, phony, phony.

Except our 4T claims aren't phony. After all, the sky's gotta fall sometime. :wink:
The recovery is real, as recoveries of this type go. The only problem is the lack of job creation. In fact, the current expectation is job loss, and the Wall Street weenies find that to be just fine.

At some point, Main Street will wake-up, and the opinion there may be a bit different.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.







Post#856 at 06-17-2003 09:40 AM by zilch [at joined Nov 2001 #posts 3,491]
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"At some point, Main Street will wake-up, and the opinion there may be a bit different."

Right. And then we'll go for another round of fascism like Franklin Roosevelt's National Recovery Act or maybe even Upton Sinclair's E.P.I.C., eh?

Forgive me, Mr. Horn, but facsists like you give me hives. :-?







Post#857 at 06-17-2003 05:59 PM by cbailey [at B. 1950 joined Sep 2001 #posts 1,559]
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When do I get to go shopping for my jewelry and handbags?
I NEED that $875 blouse NOW.



Upscale Shoppers Seem to Be Back in Spending Mode





By Anne D'Innocenzio
The Associated Press

NEW YORK -- At Bergdorf Goodman's showcase of Bill Blass fall fashions, lawyer Ellen Harris made her biggest wardrobe investment in a while, ordering a dress and several jackets that together sold for several thousands dollars.
"I am feeling a little bit more in the shopping mood," said the Madison, N.J., resident, who explained that economic uncertainty and the war in Iraq had curbed her enthusiasm for shopping. "I had been out less. I wasn't even buying mascara or pantyhose."

But at a Wal-Mart in West Little Rock, Ark., bookkeeper Vanessa Wilson said she wasn't motivated to do more shopping.

"My husband's job is kind of iffy," the Benton, Ark., resident said. "So I'm not frivolous."

Well-heeled shoppers, who analysts say curtailed their spending largely for emotional reasons over the past few months, are showing signs that they are interested in spending again, their spirits lifted by the stock market rally and resolution of the war in Iraq. They are spending at a faster pace than shoppers at discounters and other lower-priced retailers.

This change in attitude gave upscale purveyors including Neiman Marcus, the parent of Bergdorf Goodman; and Nordstrom strong sales gains in May. Barneys New York, which operates 10 stores nationwide, and designer boutiques like Louis Feraud also reported a solid rise in sales.



"Absolutely, I feel better," said Denni Podes, of Red Bank, N.J., shopping at Bergdorf Goodman. War jitters and family concerns had stifled her desire to shop, but she recently spent $50,000 on handbags and jewelry.


While it's too early to say upscale retailers are enjoying a sales boom, their experience is a striking contrast to that of stores catering to lower-income shoppers still worried about layoffs. Wal-Mart, Kohl's Corp., Family Dollar Stores Inc., and Big Lots Inc. were among the merchants posting May sales that fell below Wall Street's modest expectations.

Several consumer sentiment studies indicate that much of a recent boost in consumer confidence came from the higher-income consumer.

"Consumers are still very, very careful about what they're spending," said Tom Williams, a Wal-Mart spokesman.

But Dean Taylor, group manager for personal shopping services at Bergdorf Goodman, said, "customers are buying more freely and with much more confidence."

Bergdorf Goodman is most encouraged by sales at some of what the industry calls designer trunk shows over the past month, which they consider "a good barometer of how the consumer feels about the future," said Robert Burke, vice president of fashion. At trunk shows, consumers order merchandise that won't be available on the selling floors for several months.

The store's Chanel show, held earlier this month, brought in a record $3.1 million in sales, Burke said.

Historically, high-end store sales have been the first to start improving as the economy recovers, but analysts say it will take even longer than usual for lower-income shoppers to regain their confidence.

Sophia Koropeckyj, an economist with Economy.com, a research company in West Chester, Pa., said, "There is more of a positive outlook for white collar jobs than blue collar jobs."

The professional and business service sector has lost 900,000 jobs since the end of 2000, but Koropeckyj said the sector has stabilized, and expects to see a modest increase in hiring this year.

Meanwhile, the manufac- turing sector lost 2.5 million workers, and Koropeckyj said that unlike the last downturn, most of the job losses are permanent.

"There is no indication that employment has been improving " in that sector, she said.

Wal-Mart speculated recently that its consumers were nervous about spending because sales spiked after consumers received their biweekly paychecks and then slowed between paydays.

Stay-at-home mom Jill Whitehead of England, Ark., said she buys only necessities.

"I don't spend as much as I used to," said Whitehead as she packed tissues and napkins into her minivan outside a Wal-Mart. She said she has cut back spending since the beginning of the year because of the economy.

At Big Lots Inc., Michael Potter, chairman and chief executive, said he has started to see some gradual improvement in shopper traffic, but consumers on average spend $16 to $18 on each trip, level with a year ago.

Potter added that sales of grocery and other consumer packaged products are the strongest, but sales of discretionary items like decorative accessories are still weak. "We still have to watch and see, if and when, the average basket improves," he said.

Officials at tony stores are encouraged because consumers are spending more.

Marie Bottone, president of Feraud Inc. North America, said business started to accelerate in mid-April as war jitters subsided.

"Customers are going back to the stores more frequently" and are spending more on each visit, she said. She noted that they are buying three garments at a time instead of one.

And one of the store's best sellers is an $895 blouse.
"To announce that there must be no criticism of the president, or that we are to stand by the president right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public." -- Theodore Roosevelt







Post#858 at 06-30-2003 07:18 AM by [at joined #posts ]
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If Democrats can't run California right, how can they be trusted to run the country right?


Calif. Near Financial Disaster
Hours Remain to Solve $38 Billion Shortfall

By Rene Sanchez
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, June 30, 2003; Page A01

LOS ANGELES -- Any day now, community colleges here may begin telling faculty members that they cannot be paid and students that summer classes are canceled.

Nursing homes are losing so much state aid that many soon may have to shut down or limit their services, a prospect that has elderly residents confused and frightened.

As many as 30,000 government workers who had been expecting pay raises in the fall are instead receiving formal notices warning that they could lose their jobs by then, because the state is broke.

This is life in California, on the brink of a fiscal disaster.













Post#859 at 07-01-2003 04:06 PM by Mr. Reed [at Intersection of History joined Jun 2001 #posts 4,376]
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Quote Originally Posted by ....
If Democrats can't run California right, how can they be trusted to run the country right?
I wonder how many people thought, "If Bush can't run Texas right, how can he be trusted to run the country right?"







Post#860 at 07-01-2003 04:28 PM by The Wonkette [at Arlington, VA 1956 joined Jul 2002 #posts 9,209]
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Quote Originally Posted by ....
If Democrats can't run California right, how can they be trusted to run the country right?
Isn't the fiscal problem with California exaggerated because you need a two-thirds majority to pass a budget? With a minority of Republicans refusing to raise taxes and with the Democratic majority refusing to slash services, gridlock results.

Seems like the problem is structural (the two-thirds majority requirement) rather than partisan.
I want people to know that peace is possible even in this stupid day and age. Prem Rawat, June 8, 2008







Post#861 at 07-01-2003 04:36 PM by [at joined #posts ]
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Quote Originally Posted by The Wonk
Quote Originally Posted by ....
If Democrats can't run California right, how can they be trusted to run the country right?
Isn't the fiscal problem with California exaggerated because you need a two-thirds majority to pass a budget? With a minority of Republicans refusing to raise taxes and with the Democratic majority refusing to slash services, gridlock results.

Seems like the problem is structural (the two-thirds majority requirement) rather than partisan.
Hey, that's right!



I always wondered how California became the sixth largest
economy in the world. Now I know. Their government
is always "gridlocked." :wink:







Post#862 at 07-08-2003 12:20 PM by Mr. Reed [at Intersection of History joined Jun 2001 #posts 4,376]
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http://www.schizomania.com/

Another Great Depression?

The economy is drifting into uncharted and dangerous seas. In Japan, second largest economy in the world, an epidemic of deflation is already well advanced. In America, except for energy and the imponderables of the Iraq War, deflation is beginning to curtail profits, investments and employment.
Like many other respected economists, Paul Krugman sees little threat.
Krugman's solution for deflation is simple: Print carloads of money. In the ensuing inflation, loans would be repaid with cheaper dollars. Increased borrowing and spending would revive the economy. Ben S. Bernanke, newest member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, has suggested much the same solution in the event of a full-fledged U.S. deflation.
The Krugman-Bernanke scheme is perfectly consistent with accepted economic doctrine. But it is hopelessly na?ve.
My research on complex interactions between the society and economy of the U.S. since 1790 suggests that deflation and inflation cannot be toggled by clicking on an economic switch. Price levels depend on social variables as well as economic. (Schizomania, 2003.)
The last sustained deflation initiated the Great Depression of the '30s. In the first four years, prices plunged 25 percent. Invisible to economists, a sweeping transformation of society had come to a critical phase. Two American Dreams were ranged against each other, one old and in decline, the other young and rising.
The old vision had ruled America since 1845. Dreaming of a powerful industrial nation, our great grandfathers saved every nickel for investment in railroads, mines and factories. By the '30s, however, relentless saving, investing and the building of heavy industrial capacity had become unprofitable.
Around 1900, an opposing vision slowly began to overlap the old one: It urged Americans to forget about saving and investing, Live for today, not tomorrow.. Spend. Borrow. Consume. Old-timers bitterly opposed the new ideas. In their view it was scandalous to spend hard-earned capital on consumer frivolities.
By the '20s, America was split in two. One society-and-economy was wedded to a stern past, the other to a permissive future. One was clad in the bustles and proprieties of 1900, the other in short skirts, danced a jazzy Charleston.
In the '30s, the two Americas were like heavyweights slugging each other into oblivion. Laws and preferences that shored up one, injured the other. Deflation resulted from an excessive supply of "old" goods and services, and an inadequate demand for both the "new" and "old."
The new consumption economy would not bring full employment until demand for consumption could be expanded by new social and political forces, as well as by a larger and more enticing range of consumer goods and services. To enlarge both demand and supply, new technologies had to be invented and promoted. A steep learning curve lay ahead.
? Mass purchasing power had to multiply. That required leveling the sharp inequality inherited from the previous century. Now, to stimulate spending, dollars had to be put in the hands of those least able to save - the poor.
? To raise wages, union-haters had to become union supporters. Rabid conservatives had to reverse their views and vote for progressive income taxes and government spending on social programs.
? The new vision commanding us to get it all NOW had to be propagated by novelists, movie makers, editorials, reporters, legislators, advertisers, innovators in every field.
? Houses and cars would become the prime consumer products of the new society-and-economy. Both depended on the invention of suburbia, new city of consumption spending and parking lots. Without a car, living in suburbia was unthinkable. Without suburbia, cars would have been unnecessary.
? But suburbia was slow in coming. William J. Levitt was still too young to have that gleam in his eye.
No wonder the Great Depression lasted so long-and was ended only by the most brutal war in history.
Now fast forward to 2003.
Today's sluggish economy is rooted in another transformation that began in the '60s. That's when the new vision became a raging mania to consume, when it began to create accelerating excesses-consumer debts, government deficits, pollution, ecological hazards, myriad irresponsibilities threatening our very existence. Now, an opposing vision was born - of a community-oriented, sustainable, environmentally sound and responsible world order.
In the early 21st century, the old consumer society and economy is losing its hold. Deflation will be due to an oversupply of cars, houses and other non-productive goods, as well as by a deficiency of demand for both "old" and "new" goods and services. Economic activity will be slowed by conflict between the two opposing visions.
Eventually the new one will prevail. But not until it surmounts a steep learning curve. Meanwhile, Krugman and Bernanke may have to face the reality of a new Great Depression.







Post#863 at 08-04-2003 04:37 PM by cbailey [at B. 1950 joined Sep 2001 #posts 1,559]
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Not only California, but many of us reliant on a tourist economy, are a bit worried about this new Homeland Security rule. We're already getting cancellations in our area. :cry: .




Anxiety rises as new visa rules begin
Critics say the economic and human toll could be significant for California.
By Emily Bazar -- Bee Capitol Bureau


Published 2:15 a.m. PDT Friday, August 1, 2003

Tourism boosters, business groups and immigrant advocates across California are bracing for new visa requirements that could make it harder for overseas visitors, students and workers to enter the country.
The new rules, which kick in today, require foreign nationals applying for nonimmigrant visas to appear at one of 221 American embassies or consulates worldwide for a face-to-face interview before getting their visas.



Though the federal government bills the change as an important security measure, critics believe the requirement -- often waived in the past -- will have significant human and economic consequences:

* The California Chamber of Commerce warns that longer waits for visas could discourage tourists from visiting the Golden State.

* San Francisco attorney Ilana Drummond reports that some of her clients are canceling trips rather than risk months-long delays overseas.

* Sacramento immigration attorney Douglas Lehrman predicts the requirement will keep immigrants and their loved ones apart, especially when emergencies call for unplanned trips.

"The security concerns of the United States are great right now," Lehrman said. "It's just that there must be a better way of handling this. ... It's such a nightmare of red tape to get here since 9/11."

Immigrants and temporary visitors to the United States have been hardest hit by new security policies implemented since the wake of the attacks, especially the stricter entry requirements.

The face-to-face interview reflects the most recent of these changes. Simply put, the government says it needs to know who is entering the country. Last year, U.S. State Department officials issued 5.8 million nonimmigrant visas.

Moreover, the law has always required visa applicants to submit to an interview, said Stuart Patt, spokesman for the Bureau of Consular Affairs in the State Department, though consular official have been allowed to waive the requirement if they didn't feel it necessary.

Now, however, applicants in only a few categories -- including those over 60 and under 16 and diplomats -- are eligible for waivers to the requirement.

The remainder -- millions of applicants annually -- will have to be interviewed. The State Department doesn't know what percentage of visa recipients were interviewed in the past, though it varied widely from country to country, Patt said.

"We want to encourage people to visit the United States for legitimate reasons. We're not trying to damage tourism or business," Patt said. "But experience shows us there are security concerns that must be addressed."

Though Canada isn't affected by the change, the new rules apply to all other countries, including the 27 countries -- mostly Western European -- in the "visa waiver" program.

Citizens of Finland, the United Kingdom and the other 25 "visa waiver" countries won't need interviews to make short business or tourist trips to the United States, but they will be required to be interviewed if they apply for a work, student or other nonimmigrant visa.

In recent weeks, some U.S. consulates overseas have begun to implement the new rules, and delays are already being reported.

Two Sri Lankan net ball teams couldn't make it to the Pan Pacific Masters Games in Sacramento this week because of visa problems. Though Steve Hammond, president and CEO of the Sacramento Convention and Visitors Bureau, is still gathering details about what happened, he said the two teams were unable to schedule face-to-face interviews in time.

"Pre-9/11, those of us in the tourism business, we didn't really have a visa issue," Hammond said.

Where it once took about two weeks to obtain an H-1B work visa, it now takes four, said Sharon Dulberg, chairwoman of the Northern California chapter of the American Immigration Lawyers Association.

Her colleagues are predicting that once the new rules take effect, the wait will be as long as two to three months.

Many consulates aren't equipped to handle the interviews, and don't have the necessary staff to speed the process. Aware of the problem, the State Department is adding 39 overseas consular officers this year and another 80 next year.

Dulberg and others aren't sure that will be enough, or in time.

"I will predict that the government will decide they can't do this, that they don't have the resources to interview every single person," said Ann Kanter, a Sacramento immigration lawyer who specializes in employment visas.

Civic and business leaders worry foreign nationals might consider the new visa process too onerous, motivating them to vacation in other countries.

"It can really affect people's decisions to come here," Dulberg said. "If it's going to take you four months to get a tourist visa to the United States versus two days to get tourist visas to London, you might as well go to London."

Many other countries don't make Americans jump through the same hoops.

To visit China as a tourist, Americans must fill out a visa application, submit their American passports for review and pay a fee. An interview is not required. The visa processing time is generally about four days.

To obtain permission for sight-seeing in Russia, Americans must complete a visa application, have a valid American passport, show confirmation of stay at a hotel or other tourist establishment and pay a fee. But no interview. Visa processing time can take up to six days.

Requirements for a Pakistani tourist visa are much the same. Again, a face-to-face interview isn't necessary.

The new rules also are a hassle for foreign nationals already in the country, said Drummond, the San Francisco attorney who specializes in business immigration. She said her firm has contacted many of its clients here on valid work visas to warn them they may face delays if they leave the country for business or pleasure.

Drummond estimated that up to 30 percent of the firm's clients face potential delays because of the new interview requirement.

As a result of the warnings, many of them are canceling overseas trips, opting instead to wait and see what happens under the new requirement, she said. Others are taking the risk.

"Homeland security is important," she said. "But I think that our government is going so far toward the name of security that I think we're not seeing the forest for the trees."



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"To announce that there must be no criticism of the president, or that we are to stand by the president right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public." -- Theodore Roosevelt







Post#864 at 08-04-2003 05:25 PM by zilch [at joined Nov 2001 #posts 3,491]
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From the "How quickly we forget" file:

Anxiety rises as new visa rules begin
Critics say the economic and human toll could be significant for California.

By Emily Bazar
Bee Capitol Bureau
Published 2:15 a.m. PDT Friday, August 1, 2003

Tourism boosters, business groups and immigrant advocates
across California are bracing for new visa requirements
that could make it harder for overseas visitors, students
and workers to enter the country.



The new rules, which kick in today, require
foreign nationals applying for nonimmigrant visas
to appear at one of 221 American embassies or
consulates worldwide for a face-to-face interview
before getting their visas.



Though the federal government bills the change
as an important security measure, critics believe
the requirement -- often waived in the past --
will have significant human and economic consequences:








Post#865 at 08-05-2003 01:22 AM by cbailey [at B. 1950 joined Sep 2001 #posts 1,559]
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So you see the economic consequences of this as "stupid bullshit", Mr. Lamb?

Whatever.
"To announce that there must be no criticism of the president, or that we are to stand by the president right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public." -- Theodore Roosevelt







Post#866 at 08-05-2003 10:39 AM by Prisoner 81591518 [at joined Mar 2003 #posts 2,460]
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I think Marc Lamb was making a valid point about 'how soon we forget', by juxtaposing images from 9/11 amongst the comments from the particular California interests who are most afraid of losing out on foreign tourists' money, or cheap immigrant labor.







Post#867 at 08-05-2003 11:01 AM by Ocicat [at joined Jan 2003 #posts 167]
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It's the declared intent of the al-Qaeda network to attack us economically, as well as in other ways. To the extent that our attempts to protect ourselves from classical forms of terrorist attack cause us to harm ourselves economically, they are still achieving a measure of success.
No matter how small, every feline is a masterpiece.
-- Leonardo da Vinci







Post#868 at 08-05-2003 12:21 PM by zilch [at joined Nov 2001 #posts 3,491]
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The new rules, which kick in today, require
foreign nationals applying for nonimmigrant visas
to appear at one of 221 American embassies or
consulates worldwide for a face-to-face interview
before getting their visas.

Though the federal government bills the change
as an important security measure, critics believe
the requirement -- often waived in the past --
will have significant human and economic consequences:


Chinese students suspects in espionage

By Bill Gertz
THE WASHINGTON TIMES

Two Chinese students studying in the United States supplied China's military with American defense technology that allowed Beijing to produce a special metal used in sensors and weapons, according to a Pentagon report.
"This is a classic example of how the Chinese collect dual-use military technology," an FBI official said. "Students come here; they get jobs; they form companies."
The espionage, subject of an ongoing investigation, allowed China's military to develop a version of the substance known as Terfenol-D, which cost the Navy millions of dollars in research to create.
One of the Chinese students attended Iowa State University, where he worked closely with the Department of Energy's Ames Laboratory on the school's campus. The lab developed the material invented by the Navy in the 1970s.
The other student attended Pennsylvania State University.







Post#869 at 08-05-2003 05:30 PM by cbailey [at B. 1950 joined Sep 2001 #posts 1,559]
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More "stupid bullshit".




Planned layoffs at U.S. firms surge in July-report


Tue August 5, 2003 10:05 AM ET
NEW YORK, Aug 5 (Reuters) - The number of job cuts announced by U.S. employers surged 43 percent in July after a two-month decline, suggesting a rebound in the job market may not happen until the end of the year, a report showed on Tuesday.
Planned layoffs at U.S. firms shot up to 85,117 in July from 59,715 in June, job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said. Job cuts so far in 2003 total 715,649, only 12 percent lower than in the same period last year.

The report said job hunters can expect an average of 20 weeks to find a job that may not match their last salary.

"Employers have all the cards," said John Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray. "Not only are they sharpening their pencils, but the screening of candidates is probably the toughest it has ever been."

According to the report, the consumer goods industry announced the most layoffs last month.
"To announce that there must be no criticism of the president, or that we are to stand by the president right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public." -- Theodore Roosevelt







Post#870 at 08-05-2003 08:41 PM by [at joined #posts ]
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Them Ol' Third Turnin' Blues

Without doubt we are still mired in a Third Turning. The Kobe Bryant deal is just like OJ (black guy, white woman), all the back biting over WMD or lack thereof, all the celebrity circuses are still going full blast albeit with a tired disinterested air.

As I've said over and over again on this site the economy is the one thing that will drive us into the Fourth Turning (with the exception of some kind of military incident, but that would affect the economy as well). The really relevant parameter is unemployment which is now officially at 6% but is probably more like twice that. Watch that number, it's the best indicator of where we are on this journey.







Post#871 at 08-06-2003 01:16 PM by [at joined #posts ]
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Article about housing prices. See below. From MSN.com. http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/Banking/P56902.asp

Standard disclaimers apply.

[size]16Have home prices topped out?[/size]

For the last year, dirt-cheap mortgages have let buyers spend far more than they otherwise would. With rates now rising fast, demand for homes may begin to slack off.

By Holden Lewis, Bankrate.com

Mortgage rates fell for three years, and home prices skyrocketed in many parts of the country. Now that mortgage rates are rising, people wonder if home prices will fall.

Don't bet on it.

Prices could drop in some places, sometimes in response to economic shocks such as plant closings and sometimes from higher interest rates. In some areas, rising mortgage rates could actually cause a brief spike in home prices as procrastinators finally decide to make offers on houses, only to find themselves in unforeseen bidding wars with fellow procrastinators.

In the long run, it's impossible to predict whether rising interest rates will push home prices downward in a particular neighborhood. It's always hazardous to try to time markets, whether in stocks or houses. Your best bet is to time the buying and selling of your home based on your needs, not on what you expect the local housing market to do.

Mortgage rates and home prices: Two theories
When it comes to mortgage rates and home prices, there are two schools of thought.

One theory is that demographic and political trends have more effect than interest rates, and that home prices won't fall -- at least, not nationwide -- but the pace of price appreciation will slow as rates increase.

The other theory places more emphasis on human nature than on demographics and politics. It says that people know how much they can afford to spend every month on housing, so when mortgage rates rise, people buy less-expensive houses to accommodate higher interest payments. When large numbers of people do this, they drive down prices.

The theory that rates and prices are related makes intuitive sense, and Jack Harris buys it. Harris, research economist for Texas A&M University's Real Estate Center, notes that, at least in Texas, every time rates dipped in the past two years, prices went up.

It makes sense that the opposite will happen, because as rates rise, "demand is going to fall off. The higher rates are probably going to knock some people out of the market."

Many adjust their sights downward

The way Harris sees it, a lot of home buyers have been stretching their budgets as far as they could so they could buy houses at extremely low interest rates. If rates rise 1 or 2 percentage points from their June lows, those prospective buyers will either have to continue to rent (or live with their parents) or adjust their sights downward, buying cheaper homes than they would have been able to afford when mortgage rates were much lower.

Harris expects to see a lot of people adjusting their sights downward when rates hit about 6.75% or 7%, and for overall housing demand to fall when rates are about a percentage point higher than that. This week, the last week of July 2003, the average rate is a little under 6.25%.

Meantime, he says, rising rates could have the paradoxical effect of increasing house prices for a while. "The market heats up when interest rates go up," he says. "People feel like they can't take their time; they've got to go ahead and close the sale before rates get higher."

Indeed, that's happening in some places, says Diane Saatchi, president of Dayton-Halstead Realty in the Hamptons of Long Island.

"A lot of people realized that the deal to make now was not with the price, but with the financing," Saatchi says. "Now, with the interest rates picking up, everybody has seen the bottom and they want to lock in a rate for themselves not too far from the bottom."

Prices temporarily buoyed
As a result, sellers suddenly get multiple offers, which has the effect of keeping prices up. Like Harris, Saatchi thinks that, over the long term, higher rates mean that buyers will pay lower prices for houses, in some cases settling for less house than they would have been able to afford a few months earlier.

Most economists in the housing industry agree that the torrid pace of home-price appreciation will slow, but they don't foresee widespread price decreases. They point to demographic factors: The United States is in the midst of a huge immigration boom (of the 32.5 million foreign-born U.S. residents, almost half arrived since 1990), and the offspring of the baby boomers are moving out and forming families.

Immigration and the baby boom echo create a lot of demand for housing at a time when political factors -- such as environmental concerns and "smart growth" initiatives -- make it harder to build new housing developments, says Doug Duncan, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association.

"It's our belief that demand is going to increase at a faster rate than supply, thereby increasing home prices," Duncan says.

He notes that "there has never been a full year in the history of the modern U.S. economy when home prices have fallen across the entire U.S. economy."

Naturally, that leaves Duncan a lot of wiggle room if the housing markets of entire states or regions go kaput for a while.







Post#872 at 08-18-2003 09:57 PM by [at joined #posts ]
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08-18-2003, 09:57 PM #872
Guest

Re: No more laughter?

Quote Originally Posted by Marc S. Lamb
Quote Originally Posted by Robert
Investors figure once the Iraq Attack is successfully concluded, everything will be okay and the bull market will be back with a vengence. Unfortunately the present state of the markets is the result of the excesses of the past 20 years and Iraq has absolutely nothing to do with it. There may be a victory rally if the thing goes well but the bear will resume shortly thereafter.
I am curious, Robert: given this typical negative tone of your posts, are you of the mind that doom is "just around the corner" and such a gloomy karma is big bucks fodder for those that "preach it"? After all, even in the darkest night life does go on, hence a belly must be filled, an aspiraton must be met.

Or are we just awaiting the end

Given that your negative apocalypse shall surely be forthcoming... When it arrives... what then?
Haven't seen that Robert guy around much lately...

Stocks End Up; Dow Hits 14-Month High

Reuters
Monday, August 18, 2003; 4:01 PM

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose on Monday, with the Dow Jones industrial average ending on a 14-month high, as rosy news from big retailers like Wal-Mart Stores Inc. bolstered investors' hopes that the economy and corporate profits are improving.

The blue-chip Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> ended up 90.97 points, or 0.98 percent, at 9,412.66. The broader Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> gained 9.23 points, or 0.93 percent, to 999.90. The technology-laced Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> rose 37.52 points, or 2.20 percent, to finish at 1,739.53, based on the latest available data.







Post#873 at 08-22-2003 11:31 AM by [at joined #posts ]
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08-22-2003, 11:31 AM #873
Guest

Weapons of Mass Inflation

Oh, I'm still here. Where else would I go? Nothing has changed. The Stock Market rally is the result of MASSIVE money creation by the Federal Reserve. Japan tried the same thing after the Nekkei crash in 1990. Look at a chart of the Japanese market. It rallied and swooned about seven or eight times in the 90's but the long term trend is down. Be patient we're getting there.

We can't find Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq but there are plenty of Weapons of Mass Inflation in Washington, DC (if you know where to look).







Post#874 at 08-28-2003 03:20 AM by Dave Stafford [at joined Nov 2002 #posts 64]
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08-28-2003, 03:20 AM #874
Join Date
Nov 2002
Posts
64

White-collar workers feel the pain: Study: Grads bore brunt of recession
By Jay Fitzgerald
Wednesday, August 27, 2003

The recent economic downturn has been dubbed a ``white-collar recession'' by some - and a new study shows there's a lot of truth to the description.

According to the Economic Policy Institute, employment opportunities for college graduates have declined over the past three years at a faster rate than for high-school dropouts.

Larry Mishel, president of the nonpartisan institute and co-author of the new study ``Labor Market Left Behind,'' said blue-collar workers and people without college degrees got hammered in the past recession.

Those in the manufacturing sectors were especially hit hard, as they usually are, Mishel said.

For college-educated workers, the employment rate - which measures the number of people employed against the overall population - fell by 2.3 percent from early 2001 through the first half of 2003, more than five times the rate of even those without high-school degrees, Mishel's study shows.

In the two previous recessions, high-school dropouts and those with only high-school diplomas took it on the chin far harder than their college-educated counterparts, Mishel noted.

But that's clearly changed in recent years. ``White-collar workers are no longer spared from losing their jobs - and that's the way it's going to be from now on,'' Mishel said.

Despite the recent disparity, the jobless rate for those without high-school degrees is still three times higher than for those with college degrees, he said.

But, increasingly, college-educated workers - from telecom engineers to stock analysts - are carrying more of the layoff burden in recessions, as cost-cutting corporations eye their higher salaries as a quick way to slash expenses.

Alan Clayton-Matthews, assistant professor of public policy at the University of Massachusetts-Boston, said his research of employment in the Bay State shows similar trends.

Blue-collar workers and those without college or high-school degrees still bear the heaviest burden when it comes to job cuts, he said.The state lost nearly 19 percent of its manufacturing jobs since the peak employment month of January 2001, he noted.

But certain traditionally white-collar sectors - particularly those in telecom - have also been decimated in Massachusetts, he said.

The number of software publishing jobs fell by 24 percent since early 2001, he said. About 38 percent of computer systems designers lost their jobs in the Bay State since early 2001, while 35 percent of those in the employment services sector saw their jobs wiped out, he said.

White-collar workers are still ``better insulated'' from economic shocks, Clayton-Matthews said. ``That's why Massachusetts' unemployment rate is lower than the national average,'' he said, noting the state's reliance on a highly skilled work force. Massachusetts' unemployment rate was 5.4 percent in July, compared with the national rate of 6.2 percent.

But Bob MacIntosh, chief economist for Eaton Vance Management in Boston, said he sees the pressure on white-collar workers continuing. Corporations will continue to search for ways to contain costs - and outsourcing white-collar jobs overseas, among other things, will probably escalate, he said.

``Those are good jobs, high-paying jobs usually held by college-educated people,'' he said.







Post#875 at 08-28-2003 03:20 AM by Dave Stafford [at joined Nov 2002 #posts 64]
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08-28-2003, 03:20 AM #875
Join Date
Nov 2002
Posts
64

White-collar workers feel the pain: Study: Grads bore brunt of recession
By Jay Fitzgerald
Wednesday, August 27, 2003

The recent economic downturn has been dubbed a ``white-collar recession'' by some - and a new study shows there's a lot of truth to the description.

According to the Economic Policy Institute, employment opportunities for college graduates have declined over the past three years at a faster rate than for high-school dropouts.

Larry Mishel, president of the nonpartisan institute and co-author of the new study ``Labor Market Left Behind,'' said blue-collar workers and people without college degrees got hammered in the past recession.

Those in the manufacturing sectors were especially hit hard, as they usually are, Mishel said.

For college-educated workers, the employment rate - which measures the number of people employed against the overall population - fell by 2.3 percent from early 2001 through the first half of 2003, more than five times the rate of even those without high-school degrees, Mishel's study shows.

In the two previous recessions, high-school dropouts and those with only high-school diplomas took it on the chin far harder than their college-educated counterparts, Mishel noted.

But that's clearly changed in recent years. ``White-collar workers are no longer spared from losing their jobs - and that's the way it's going to be from now on,'' Mishel said.

Despite the recent disparity, the jobless rate for those without high-school degrees is still three times higher than for those with college degrees, he said.

But, increasingly, college-educated workers - from telecom engineers to stock analysts - are carrying more of the layoff burden in recessions, as cost-cutting corporations eye their higher salaries as a quick way to slash expenses.

Alan Clayton-Matthews, assistant professor of public policy at the University of Massachusetts-Boston, said his research of employment in the Bay State shows similar trends.

Blue-collar workers and those without college or high-school degrees still bear the heaviest burden when it comes to job cuts, he said.The state lost nearly 19 percent of its manufacturing jobs since the peak employment month of January 2001, he noted.

But certain traditionally white-collar sectors - particularly those in telecom - have also been decimated in Massachusetts, he said.

The number of software publishing jobs fell by 24 percent since early 2001, he said. About 38 percent of computer systems designers lost their jobs in the Bay State since early 2001, while 35 percent of those in the employment services sector saw their jobs wiped out, he said.

White-collar workers are still ``better insulated'' from economic shocks, Clayton-Matthews said. ``That's why Massachusetts' unemployment rate is lower than the national average,'' he said, noting the state's reliance on a highly skilled work force. Massachusetts' unemployment rate was 5.4 percent in July, compared with the national rate of 6.2 percent.

But Bob MacIntosh, chief economist for Eaton Vance Management in Boston, said he sees the pressure on white-collar workers continuing. Corporations will continue to search for ways to contain costs - and outsourcing white-collar jobs overseas, among other things, will probably escalate, he said.

``Those are good jobs, high-paying jobs usually held by college-educated people,'' he said.
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