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Thread: Financial Crisis - Page 38







Post#926 at 08-13-2004 05:38 PM by Justin '77 [at Meh. joined Sep 2001 #posts 12,182]
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Quote Originally Posted by William Jennings Bryan
When do you think the global market will realize that there are too many dollars floating around out there??
If I had any idea about that whatsoever, I'd be a lot richer than I am now. For me, it suffices that I (a rank amateur, market-wise) recognize the weakness, so it can't be all that hard to see.







Post#927 at 08-14-2004 01:02 PM by Mikebert [at Kalamazoo MI joined Jul 2001 #posts 4,502]
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Quote Originally Posted by Brian Rush
Consumption in the usual sense was severely curtailed during the war as it had been during the Depression, although for different reasons -- rationing instead of unemployment, a shortage in supply rather than a lack of consumer demand.
And consumption is severely curtailed today--in China and Japan where workers save a prodigious fraction of their income--as did American workers in WW II.

Today, the US is playing the economic role of the Axis powers in WW II, except instead of being showered with bombs, we are being showered with consumer goods. The Asian countries are playing the role of America in WW II.

The 4T occurs during Kondratiev Winter. The chief issue in Winter is surplus production capacity, that is, a shortage of demand wrt supply. The solution in the last 4T was WW II, which provided an insatiable source demand. The solution this time is the nearly insatiable US consumer.

Of course this is fine for the Asian economies, but not so good for the US. The US sees a faster erosion of its old-economy industries and risks ending up like Imperial Spain after this 4T, a (relatively) poor has-been. This fate can be avoided if the US were to pioneer enough new leading sectors to make the information economy as big as the old mass-production economy was. In this way, high-paying new-economy jobs would replace high-paying old-economy jobs being lost to automation and job export.

One way to start is the development of alternates to oil and gas, which would be a pretty big leading sector.







Post#928 at 08-16-2004 10:32 AM by Tom Mazanec [at NE Ohio 1958 joined Sep 2001 #posts 1,511]
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Post#929 at 08-17-2004 08:59 PM by HopefulCynic68 [at joined Sep 2001 #posts 9,412]
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OK, consider this:

Top Ten Most Expensive Catastrophes


Top 10 Catastrophes

Fri Aug 13, 6:27 PM ET

By The Associated Press

Top 10 catastrophic events for insured property losses, according to Insurance Services Office Inc. of Jersey City, N.J.

The company defines a catastrophe as a single incident or series of related incidents ? man-made or natural ? that cause insured property losses totaling at least $25 million and affect a significant number of policyholders and insurers. Catastrophes with equivalent amounts of damage are listed with the same rank.

The following numbers are inflation adjusted to 2002 dollars.


1. Terrorist attack (New York, Virginia, Pennsylvania), September 2001 ? $20.7 billion.


2. Hurricane Andrew, August 1992 ? $19.9 billion.


3. Northridge, Calif., earthquake, January 1994 ? $15.2 billion.


4. Hurricane Hugo, September 1989 ? $6.1 billion.


5. Hurricane Georges, September 1998 ? $3.3 billion.


6. Midwest, South tornadoes, May 2003 ? $3.1 billion.


7. Tropical Storm Allison, July 2001 ? $2.5 billion.


7. Hurricane Opal, October 1995 ? $2.5 billion.


9. Midwest, South tornadoes, April 2001 ? $2.2 billion.


9. Northeast winter storm, March 1993 ? $2.2 billion.







Post#930 at 08-18-2004 11:35 AM by The Wonkette [at Arlington, VA 1956 joined Jul 2002 #posts 9,209]
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Quote Originally Posted by HopefulCynic68
OK, consider this:

Top Ten Most Expensive Catastrophes


Top 10 Catastrophes

Fri Aug 13, 6:27 PM ET

By The Associated Press

Top 10 catastrophic events for insured property losses, according to Insurance Services Office Inc. of Jersey City, N.J.

The company defines a catastrophe as a single incident or series of related incidents ? man-made or natural ? that cause insured property losses totaling at least $25 million and affect a significant number of policyholders and insurers. Catastrophes with equivalent amounts of damage are listed with the same rank.

The following numbers are inflation adjusted to 2002 dollars.


1. Terrorist attack (New York, Virginia, Pennsylvania), September 2001 ? $20.7 billion.


2. Hurricane Andrew, August 1992 ? $19.9 billion.


3. Northridge, Calif., earthquake, January 1994 ? $15.2 billion.


4. Hurricane Hugo, September 1989 ? $6.1 billion.


5. Hurricane Georges, September 1998 ? $3.3 billion.


6. Midwest, South tornadoes, May 2003 ? $3.1 billion.


7. Tropical Storm Allison, July 2001 ? $2.5 billion.


7. Hurricane Opal, October 1995 ? $2.5 billion.


9. Midwest, South tornadoes, April 2001 ? $2.2 billion.


9. Northeast winter storm, March 1993 ? $2.2 billion.
Wow. 2001 was nasty, with Numbers 1, 7, and 9.

I see that the 1993 Midwest summer floods didn't make the cut. Also, it is interesting that there are no disasters prior to 1990.
I want people to know that peace is possible even in this stupid day and age. Prem Rawat, June 8, 2008







Post#931 at 08-18-2004 01:47 PM by Croakmore [at The hazardous reefs of Silentium joined Nov 2001 #posts 2,426]
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Catastrophes

Quote Originally Posted by HopefulCynic68
OK, consider this:

Top Ten Most Expensive Catastrophes


Top 10 Catastrophes

Fri Aug 13, 6:27 PM ET

By The Associated Press

Top 10 catastrophic events for insured property losses, according to Insurance Services Office Inc. of Jersey City, N.J.

The company defines a catastrophe as a single incident or series of related incidents ? man-made or natural ? that cause insured property losses totaling at least $25 million and affect a significant number of policyholders and insurers. Catastrophes with equivalent amounts of damage are listed with the same rank.

The following numbers are inflation adjusted to 2002 dollars.


1. Terrorist attack (New York, Virginia, Pennsylvania), September 2001 ? $20.7 billion.


2. Hurricane Andrew, August 1992 ? $19.9 billion.


3. Northridge, Calif., earthquake, January 1994 ? $15.2 billion.


4. Hurricane Hugo, September 1989 ? $6.1 billion.


5. Hurricane Georges, September 1998 ? $3.3 billion.


6. Midwest, South tornadoes, May 2003 ? $3.1 billion.


7. Tropical Storm Allison, July 2001 ? $2.5 billion.


7. Hurricane Opal, October 1995 ? $2.5 billion.


9. Midwest, South tornadoes, April 2001 ? $2.2 billion.


9. Northeast winter storm, March 1993 ? $2.2 billion.
Great post, H. C.!

It made me wonder is the year 2000 presidential election could qualify as a "catastrophe." That stolen election has cost much more than $20.7 billion -- more like $100s of billions. And it would have been avoidable by wise and restrained leadership. President Gore would not have blundered nearly so badly; he might have even brought a few reasonable options to the table.

Add to this the avoidable "catastrophes" of credit card debt and second mortage burdens that will impair the furtures of our children and grandchildren. Those costs will accrue more damage than Bush's Blunder. And they will find their place in our history as America's true Achilles heel.

--Croakmore







Post#932 at 08-18-2004 11:01 PM by HopefulCynic68 [at joined Sep 2001 #posts 9,412]
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Re: Catastrophes

Quote Originally Posted by Croakmore
Quote Originally Posted by HopefulCynic68
OK, consider this:

Top Ten Most Expensive Catastrophes


Top 10 Catastrophes

Fri Aug 13, 6:27 PM ET

By The Associated Press

Top 10 catastrophic events for insured property losses, according to Insurance Services Office Inc. of Jersey City, N.J.

The company defines a catastrophe as a single incident or series of related incidents ? man-made or natural ? that cause insured property losses totaling at least $25 million and affect a significant number of policyholders and insurers. Catastrophes with equivalent amounts of damage are listed with the same rank.

The following numbers are inflation adjusted to 2002 dollars.


1. Terrorist attack (New York, Virginia, Pennsylvania), September 2001 ? $20.7 billion.


2. Hurricane Andrew, August 1992 ? $19.9 billion.


3. Northridge, Calif., earthquake, January 1994 ? $15.2 billion.


4. Hurricane Hugo, September 1989 ? $6.1 billion.


5. Hurricane Georges, September 1998 ? $3.3 billion.


6. Midwest, South tornadoes, May 2003 ? $3.1 billion.


7. Tropical Storm Allison, July 2001 ? $2.5 billion.


7. Hurricane Opal, October 1995 ? $2.5 billion.


9. Midwest, South tornadoes, April 2001 ? $2.2 billion.


9. Northeast winter storm, March 1993 ? $2.2 billion.
Great post, H. C.!

It made me wonder is the year 2000 presidential election could qualify as a "catastrophe." That stolen election has cost much more than $20.7 billion -- more like $100s of billions. And it would have been avoidable by wise and restrained leadership. President Gore would not have blundered nearly so badly; he might have even brought a few reasonable options to the table.
Sigh. Here we go again.

1. Election 2000 was not stolen. Gore failed to show a popular majority in Florida, made up of uncontested votes. Nothing less would suffice, and after the intial count came up in Bush's favor, the burden of proof was on Gore.

2. There may have been an attempt to steal the election...on the part of Al Gore, depending on whether he believed the reasons he gave for what he tried to do. It's a fact that Gore tried to restrict the recounts (and the rerecounts, etc) to districts with high Democratic populations, rather than call for a statewide recount, which would better accord with 'let every vote be counted'.







Post#933 at 08-18-2004 11:10 PM by HopefulCynic68 [at joined Sep 2001 #posts 9,412]
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Quote Originally Posted by Hermione Granger
Quote Originally Posted by HopefulCynic68
OK, consider this:

Top Ten Most Expensive Catastrophes


Top 10 Catastrophes

Fri Aug 13, 6:27 PM ET

By The Associated Press

Top 10 catastrophic events for insured property losses, according to Insurance Services Office Inc. of Jersey City, N.J.

The company defines a catastrophe as a single incident or series of related incidents ? man-made or natural ? that cause insured property losses totaling at least $25 million and affect a significant number of policyholders and insurers. Catastrophes with equivalent amounts of damage are listed with the same rank.

The following numbers are inflation adjusted to 2002 dollars.


1. Terrorist attack (New York, Virginia, Pennsylvania), September 2001 ? $20.7 billion.


2. Hurricane Andrew, August 1992 ? $19.9 billion.


3. Northridge, Calif., earthquake, January 1994 ? $15.2 billion.


4. Hurricane Hugo, September 1989 ? $6.1 billion.


5. Hurricane Georges, September 1998 ? $3.3 billion.


6. Midwest, South tornadoes, May 2003 ? $3.1 billion.


7. Tropical Storm Allison, July 2001 ? $2.5 billion.


7. Hurricane Opal, October 1995 ? $2.5 billion.


9. Midwest, South tornadoes, April 2001 ? $2.2 billion.


9. Northeast winter storm, March 1993 ? $2.2 billion.
Wow. 2001 was nasty, with Numbers 1, 7, and 9.

I see that the 1993 Midwest summer floods didn't make the cut. Also, it is interesting that there are no disasters prior to 1990.
Note that 5 of the 10 are hurricanes/tropical storms.

The thing is, the Midwest is more sparsely populated than the Atlantic/Gulf Coast. There are plenty of people in the Mississippi Valley, but they're relatively spread out, whereas a steadily increasing number of people are living a relative stone's throw from the coasts.

Hurricanes have crashed ashore in that region since half past forever, but where at one time they'd blast across relatively rural areas, today there's more cityscape to hit, more heavily-built barrier islands, more subdivisions and suburbs. A hurricane that might have affected a few thousand people in 1904 might affect a few hundred thousand today, at the same intensity and following the same track.







Post#934 at 08-23-2004 02:30 PM by Tom Mazanec [at NE Ohio 1958 joined Sep 2001 #posts 1,511]
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Post#935 at 08-23-2004 05:37 PM by casewestwill [at North Coast joined Aug 2004 #posts 98]
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Quote Originally Posted by Tom Mazanec
Contrarian Chronicles
Odds of a crash are higher than you think
advertisement

Stock-market crashes are rare, statistically, but the odds today are dramatically higher than 'normal.' Ask yourself how you'll handle it.

By Bill Fleckenstein

What are the chances of a stock-market crash? On July 3, Neil Cavuto asked me this question on his Fox News business program. Though the medium of television dictated a "sound-bite" reply, the subject does not lend itself to pat answers. What's helpful, instead, is a lesson in "crash math," which I'll try to provide.

When I say "crash," people usually think of the Oct. 29, 1929, or Oct. 19, 1987, stock market crashes, i.e., a one-day event, but I don't mean just that. My working hypothesis always has been that a market dislocation needn't necessarily happen in one day, but could happen over a series of days. I prefer the term "dislocation" (or, to borrow a phrase from the commodity markets, a "market repricing"), since it's less likely to cause people to immediately think of the 1929 or 1987 crashes.

A big dislocation is rare indeed
You can estimate how rare a dislocation ought to be. Looking at the S&P 500 index ($INX) monthly data since 1973 (I only use monthly data here to make the calculations a little simpler), you'd find that a month where the market went down, say, 14%, like it did in August 1998, was approximately a 3 standard deviation move. A month where the market dropped as it did in October 1987 would be about a 4.5 standard deviation move.

To put those numbers in perspective, a 3 standard deviation move is roughly 1 out of 740 observations, a 4 standard deviation is 1 in 31,600, while 4.5 standard deviation is a staggering 1 out of 294,000. The minutiae of the math that could get us to different numbers totally misses the obvious, main point: Crashlike moves are very rare.

I bring this subject up because I believe the risks are far higher now than "normal" (which is the point I tried to make last weekend on "Cavuto on Business"). However, to say that the chance of a crash-like event is far higher than normal doesn't really mean much if you don't know how likely it is in the first place.Check out your options.
Find the best rate
before you borrow.



A 1-in-5 chance?
When pressed, I told Neil I thought the chance might be as high as 1 in 5. Well, compared to the statistics I've given you, 1 in 5 is a gargantuan number, but I don't know if 1 in 5 is the right number. One in 10 would still be a giant number, as would 1 in 20, relative to "normal." I have no idea what the true probabilities are -- because they are not knowable. Everyone who looks at the potential causes of a dislocation, which I'll get to in a moment, will arrive at different conclusions.

However, what I don?t think is debatable is that the possibilities are far higher than most people would think (if they ever even thought about it). Folks need to factor the possibilities into their investment strategies, or think through the possibilities and dismiss them, should they come to that conclusion. With that preface aside, let me move on to what I think are the ingredients necessary to cause a market dislocation.

Speculation: yeast for a crash cake
First, you need a fair amount of speculation in order to extend a market in a large enough way to make it "crashable." We obviously had that in 1987. Once you say that we had enough speculation in 1987 and compare that with today, it's clear to me that we have enough speculation now and then some. If we just look at the P/E of the S&P 500, it's about the same now as then.

However, the earnings quality is arguably far lower and less stable (i.e., earnings are potentially overstated today, thanks to compensation in the form of options not being expensed). In addition, I could list a whole host of speculative ideas that today sport multibillion-dollar market caps, whereas back then, by my observation, speculative ideas were still measured in the multimillions.

Structures that make dislocation possible
Then, more important than speculation, and the instability caused by it, you need a structure that is crashable. That was really the key in 1987. We had a structure called portfolio insurance that caused people who might ordinarily be inclined to sell not to sell. As long as the market didn't drop by a certain pre-established amount, they all just sat on their hands.

When the market started to drop by the predescribed amount, say 3% to 8%, they all sold (via their money manager) at the same time, and that's how you had everybody pounding the exits all at once. We experienced speculation, but the structure was more important than the speculation.

We can't know if today's structure is more crashable than 1987's. We know we've got 8,000 hedge funds, plus or minus, most of which have hair-trigger fingers. We know we've got 7,000 or 8,000 mutual funds, most of which will allow redemptions on a phone call -- which, to me, makes the structure more crashable.

Back in 1987, we did not have as much mutual-fund money in the market. A lot of money was run by dinosaur types like I used to be, managing individual accounts. Today, much more money is being managed more or less anonymously as OPM (other people's money), which causes higher levels of risk-taking.

Importantly, I also think that because of the market declines of the last couple years (before the recent 15-month rally), we've established a predisposition for people to cut their losses if the market heads down again -- something that wasn't present during the 2000-2003 market decline. People now know that stocks can go down, and go down a long way, so the precondition potentially exists for them to exercise their right to the 1-800-GET-ME-OUT phone call.

Lastly, in the structure department, we have trillions of dollars of derivatives, of which we have no knowledge of how they might work in a market meltdown. As a subset to that, we also have dynamic hedging on Wall Street, which might (again, unknowable) make the market more crashable. So, I would say we have more speculation now, but we had a structure in 1987 that was almost guaranteed to precipitate a crash. Whether today?s structure is powerful enough to trigger a dislocation or not is perhaps debatable.

What would the catalysts be?
Finally, you need a catalyst. Here I think the catalyst is far more powerful now than it was in 1987. I was managing money in 1987, and because of the climate I have described, I believed a crash was possible, which was a pretty radical thought back then. At that time, we had an inflation problem building, a belief that the Fed was behind the curve and a falling dollar. The fact that the dollar appeared to be breaking in an uncontrolled manner to the downside in October 1987 was the catalyst that allowed the speculation and the structure to create the implosion we saw.

Today, we not only have a Fed that is behind the curve, but, far more ominously, the Fed is trapped and unable to rescue the market. It's a variation of the theme I talked about recently in a speech I gave in New York (posted on my subscription site, fleckensteincapital.com) -- that the next time we see a downturn in the economy or the stock market, folks will realize that the Fed can't save them. If folks realize that the Fed can't save the day, that the stock market and economy are "on their own," and potentially heading south, that could easily foment panic.

The other potential catalyst now, as in 1987: The dollar is (potentially) coming unstuck, and foreigners could pressure the dollar, or, in other ways, get folks so sensitized to the macro problems that exist that they'd want to sell stocks, at roughly the same time. Most people do not realize that the decline in the dollar over the last two years has been bigger than the drop leading up to Oct. 19, 1987.

My gut feeling -- though there is no way for me to quantify it -- is that probability of a crash at some point in the next six months to a year is far higher now than in 1987. One subjective reason is that I just don't think it's possible for all the thousands of hedge funds and hundreds of thousands or millions of people who think they're talented enough to outwit the stock market -- and who believe they can play this game of speculating in an overvalued, dangerous stock market -- to get out whole.

My belief in the perversity of markets leads me to conclude that after 10 years or more of folks getting away with whatever they wanted, Mr. Market might just be ready to take some folks' money. What comes to mind are put sellers, who, euphemistically, win 99 times in a row but on the 100th time get wiped out. That's my vision of the stock market eventually taking back a lot of the paper wealth that's been created.

Yeah, but what can I do about it?
To sum up, just because the risks may be higher than "normal" does not mean that I think a crash-like event will happen. To believe that something would happen, you'd have to believe that the probabilities were at least over 50% and probably bordering on 75% or 80%. And obviously, just because the probabilities of an event may be higher than normal also does not mean that an event will happen.

Personally, as I often note, I am short stocks (mostly tech stocks), own gold and silver (as well as gold and silver mining stocks) and foreign currencies. I understand the risks I take, and I constantly monitor and adjust my positions as needed.

(Editor?s note: A small investor can buy FDIC-insured certificates of deposit denominated in foreign currencies from Everbank in St. Louis.)

Ultimately, you need to determine what?s appropriate based on your tolerance for risk and your own outlook. But to conclude that it's business as usual, i.e., a dislocation is an extraordinarily low-probability event, is liable to be costly.

Bill Fleckenstein is president of Fleckenstein Capital, which manages a hedge fund based in Seattle. He also writes a daily Market Rap column on his Fleckensteincapital.com site. His investment positions can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. The views and opinions expressed in Bill Fleckenstein's columns are his own and not necessarily those of CNBC on MSN Money.

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P85428.asp

Thanks Tom, excellent article and site. I'm curious, what part of NE Ohio are you in? I'm in Cleveland Heights.







Post#936 at 08-23-2004 07:22 PM by Zarathustra [at Where the Northwest meets the Southwest joined Mar 2003 #posts 9,198]
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Quote Originally Posted by casewestwill
Thanks Tom, excellent article and site. I'm curious, what part of NE Ohio are you in? I'm in Cleveland Heights.
I have family all around Cleveland (my parents met in Parma). If I ever go out there I'll let you guys know. If you're available, I'd love to talk shop.
Americans have had enough of glitz and roar . . Foreboding has deepened, and spiritual currents have darkened . . .
THE FOURTH TURNING IS AT HAND.
See T4T, p. 253.







Post#937 at 08-23-2004 08:06 PM by casewestwill [at North Coast joined Aug 2004 #posts 98]
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Cool

8) Cool.......Parma, eh? WJB...so you come from good, old, middle class Ohio stock? But then, Ohio is alot like Kevin Bacon. There's seems to be enough Ohio area posters to have a get-together sometime????







Post#938 at 08-23-2004 09:36 PM by monoghan [at Ohio joined Jun 2002 #posts 1,189]
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Re: Cool

Quote Originally Posted by casewestwill
8) Cool.......Parma, eh? WJB...so you come from good, old, middle class Ohio stock? But then, Ohio is alot like Kevin Bacon. There's seems to be enough Ohio area posters to have a get-together sometime????
I'm in. How about The Colony?







Post#939 at 08-23-2004 09:52 PM by casewestwill [at North Coast joined Aug 2004 #posts 98]
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Re: Cool

Quote Originally Posted by monoghan
Quote Originally Posted by casewestwill
8) Cool.......Parma, eh? WJB...so you come from good, old, middle class Ohio stock? But then, Ohio is alot like Kevin Bacon. There's seems to be enough Ohio area posters to have a get-together sometime????
I'm in. How about The Colony?
Sounds great - are you in the nieghborhood, monoghan? The Colony would be perfect - great grub, drink, music - not too noisy or pricey.







Post#940 at 08-23-2004 10:25 PM by Zarathustra [at Where the Northwest meets the Southwest joined Mar 2003 #posts 9,198]
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Re: Cool

Quote Originally Posted by casewestwill
8) Cool.......Parma, eh? WJB...so you come from good, old, middle class Ohio stock? But then, Ohio is alot like Kevin Bacon. There's seems to be enough Ohio area posters to have a get-together sometime????
Most of my relatives on both sides of the family stayed in the Cleveland area. I have folks in Parma, Strongsville, Brunswick, Brecksville, Medina, Stow, Shaker Heights, and a few other places.

From my many summers there back in the day I remember SuperHost on 43-WUAB and some big water slide on a lake nearby.
Americans have had enough of glitz and roar . . Foreboding has deepened, and spiritual currents have darkened . . .
THE FOURTH TURNING IS AT HAND.
See T4T, p. 253.







Post#941 at 08-23-2004 10:48 PM by casewestwill [at North Coast joined Aug 2004 #posts 98]
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Re: Cool

Quote Originally Posted by William Jennings Bryan
Quote Originally Posted by casewestwill
8) Cool.......Parma, eh? WJB...so you come from good, old, middle class Ohio stock? But then, Ohio is alot like Kevin Bacon. There's seems to be enough Ohio area posters to have a get-together sometime????
Most of my relatives on both sides of the family stayed in the Cleveland area. I have folks in Parma, Strongsville, Brunswick, Brecksville, Medina, Stow, Shaker Heights, and a few other places.

From my many summers there back in the day I remember SuperHost on 43-WUAB and some big water slide on a lake nearby.
SuperHost!!! 8) That's going waaaay back....John Landis? was that his name? How many movie clips did you guess? What about Big Chuck and Little John? Was that water slide at Chippewa Lake? What's you're D.O.B. WJB? We may have been in close proximity at some point.







Post#942 at 08-24-2004 01:07 AM by Zarathustra [at Where the Northwest meets the Southwest joined Mar 2003 #posts 9,198]
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Re: Cool

Quote Originally Posted by casewestwill
Quote Originally Posted by William Jennings Bryan
Quote Originally Posted by casewestwill
8) Cool.......Parma, eh? WJB...so you come from good, old, middle class Ohio stock? But then, Ohio is alot like Kevin Bacon. There's seems to be enough Ohio area posters to have a get-together sometime????
Most of my relatives on both sides of the family stayed in the Cleveland area. I have folks in Parma, Strongsville, Brunswick, Brecksville, Medina, Stow, Shaker Heights, and a few other places.

From my many summers there back in the day I remember SuperHost on 43-WUAB and some big water slide on a lake nearby.
SuperHost!!! 8) That's going waaaay back....John Landis? was that his name? How many movie clips did you guess? What about Big Chuck and Little John? Was that water slide at Chippewa Lake? What's you're D.O.B. WJB? We may have been in close proximity at some point.
I was born 9/11/68. I've been back to Cleveland dozens of times over the years . . . usually one week summer vacations and certain holidays. But I spent pretty much the entire summers of '82, '83, and '84 there, and a good portion of the summers of '71, '72, and '88.

Do you remember the Nazi transexual serial killer that haunted Cleveland in the early 80's, Frank Spisak? I'll never forget his (her) trial on TV and in the papers in the summer of '83. He's still on death row in Ohio.

All I know about SuperHost is that he was vaguely funny and had a red rubber nose.

We did not go to Chippewa Lake. It was someplace else. A smaller lake (or glorified pond) with just swimming and a big slide. It was somewhere southeast of Cleveland I think. I remember there being a "Valley" attached to the name but I'm not sure. But God did we have fun.

I spent time in Parma, Seven Hills, and Brunswick mostly.

I still go back every once in a while (all the way from California) but mostly for weddings and funerals. I visited "The Flats" with my cousins in the mid-90's (that was interesting) and I was there most recently this time last year for a few days.

I hope the Hough is nicer these days than it used to be. :wink:
Americans have had enough of glitz and roar . . Foreboding has deepened, and spiritual currents have darkened . . .
THE FOURTH TURNING IS AT HAND.
See T4T, p. 253.







Post#943 at 08-24-2004 08:43 AM by casewestwill [at North Coast joined Aug 2004 #posts 98]
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Re: Cool

Quote Originally Posted by William Jennings Bryan
Quote Originally Posted by casewestwill
Quote Originally Posted by William Jennings Bryan
Quote Originally Posted by casewestwill
8) Cool.......Parma, eh? WJB...so you come from good, old, middle class Ohio stock? But then, Ohio is alot like Kevin Bacon. There's seems to be enough Ohio area posters to have a get-together sometime????
Most of my relatives on both sides of the family stayed in the Cleveland area. I have folks in Parma, Strongsville, Brunswick, Brecksville, Medina, Stow, Shaker Heights, and a few other places.

From my many summers there back in the day I remember SuperHost on 43-WUAB and some big water slide on a lake nearby.
SuperHost!!! 8) That's going waaaay back....John Landis? was that his name? How many movie clips did you guess? What about Big Chuck and Little John? Was that water slide at Chippewa Lake? What's you're D.O.B. WJB? We may have been in close proximity at some point.
I was born 9/11/68. I've been back to Cleveland dozens of times over the years . . . usually one week summer vacations and certain holidays. But I spent pretty much the entire summers of '82, '83, and '84 there, and a good portion of the summers of '71, '72, and '88.

Do you remember the Nazi transexual serial killer that haunted Cleveland in the early 80's, Frank Spisak? I'll never forget his (her) trial on TV and in the papers in the summer of '83. He's still on death row in Ohio.

All I know about SuperHost is that he was vaguely funny and had a red rubber nose.

We did not go to Chippewa Lake. It was someplace else. A smaller lake (or glorified pond) with just swimming and a big slide. It was somewhere southeast of Cleveland I think. I remember there being a "Valley" attached to the name but I'm not sure. But God did we have fun.

I spent time in Parma, Seven Hills, and Brunswick mostly.

I still go back every once in a while (all the way from California) but mostly for weddings and funerals. I visited "The Flats" with my cousins in the mid-90's (that was interesting) and I was there most recently this time last year for a few days.

I hope the Hough is nicer these days than it used to be. :wink:

9-11-68...yikes! those are some ominous numbers, dude. I'm 7-7-67.

Yeah, who doesn't remember Frankie Anne, or should I say Francis? He (she?) sued the state because the wardens wouldn't refer to him as Francis....and you thought all the fruit was in California?

I'm not sure what lake you are talking about - I grew up in Lakewood.

I wish I could tell you the Hough was nicer - some would say so. There's been lots of demolition - that's about it. I wouldn't feel comfortable there anytime of the day.







Post#944 at 08-24-2004 09:05 AM by monoghan [at Ohio joined Jun 2002 #posts 1,189]
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08-24-2004, 09:05 AM #944
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Re: Cool

Quote Originally Posted by casewestwill
Quote Originally Posted by monoghan
Quote Originally Posted by casewestwill
8) Cool.......Parma, eh? WJB...so you come from good, old, middle class Ohio stock? But then, Ohio is alot like Kevin Bacon. There's seems to be enough Ohio area posters to have a get-together sometime????
I'm in. How about The Colony?
Sounds great - are you in the nieghborhood, monoghan? The Colony would be perfect - great grub, drink, music - not too noisy or pricey.
Used to be on Essex now near Severance.







Post#945 at 08-24-2004 11:18 AM by Zarathustra [at Where the Northwest meets the Southwest joined Mar 2003 #posts 9,198]
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08-24-2004, 11:18 AM #945
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Re: Cool

Quote Originally Posted by casewestwill
9-11-68...yikes! those are some ominous numbers, dude. I'm 7-7-67.

Yeah, who doesn't remember Frankie Anne, or should I say Francis? He (she?) sued the state because the wardens wouldn't refer to him as Francis....and you thought all the fruit was in California?

I'm not sure what lake you are talking about - I grew up in Lakewood.

I wish I could tell you the Hough was nicer - some would say so. There's been lots of demolition - that's about it. I wouldn't feel comfortable there anytime of the day.
I think Frankie is a perfect candidate for the death penalty. I'm sure some of the families of his victims would agree. I wonder if he could be extradited to Texas for something to hurry up the sentence? :wink:

I will ask my cousins about the lake in question. We had so much fun there. I have very fond memories of your home area.
Americans have had enough of glitz and roar . . Foreboding has deepened, and spiritual currents have darkened . . .
THE FOURTH TURNING IS AT HAND.
See T4T, p. 253.







Post#946 at 08-24-2004 10:31 PM by casewestwill [at North Coast joined Aug 2004 #posts 98]
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08-24-2004, 10:31 PM #946
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Re: Cool

Quote Originally Posted by monoghan
Quote Originally Posted by casewestwill
Quote Originally Posted by monoghan
Quote Originally Posted by casewestwill
8) Cool.......Parma, eh? WJB...so you come from good, old, middle class Ohio stock? But then, Ohio is alot like Kevin Bacon. There's seems to be enough Ohio area posters to have a get-together sometime????
I'm in. How about The Colony?
Sounds great - are you in the nieghborhood, monoghan? The Colony would be perfect - great grub, drink, music - not too noisy or pricey.
Used to be on Essex now near Severance.
Oh...I'm on Berkeley







Post#947 at 08-25-2004 02:02 PM by Tom Mazanec [at NE Ohio 1958 joined Sep 2001 #posts 1,511]
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08-25-2004, 02:02 PM #947
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I'm a Clevelander (Maple Heights) as well.







Post#948 at 08-25-2004 02:03 PM by Tom Mazanec [at NE Ohio 1958 joined Sep 2001 #posts 1,511]
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08-25-2004, 02:03 PM #948
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Post#949 at 08-25-2004 08:25 PM by casewestwill [at North Coast joined Aug 2004 #posts 98]
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Thanks

Thanks for the article and link, Tom

So my continuing education is all for not....great.

You know, I'm thankful I discovered this website. If I hadn't, I would be going about my business in the typical linear fashion - clueless. I've been reading posts such as Tom's since last spring, and I've gone from skeptic to convert. I am seriously considering putting my house on the market and renting. The only thing stopping me is the scorn and ridicule from friends and family. The value of our home has increased substantially since we purchased it, and my feeling is that we are at the top of the market. What a mindf**k. When I mention anything regarding a housing crash or "major recession" to others, all I get are :lol: :wink: .

Sometimes you gotta do what you gotta do.







Post#950 at 08-25-2004 08:45 PM by The Wonkette [at Arlington, VA 1956 joined Jul 2002 #posts 9,209]
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08-25-2004, 08:45 PM #950
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About the decision to sell. In my case, the house I have has doubled in value in the four years that I've owned it. I originally took out a $160,000 mortgage and now with two refinances (each lowering the rate), I now have a balance of $170,000. Given that my house is worth (on paper) at least in the high $300,000s, even if home prices fell in half, I would still have equity in my house. A more realistic scenario is that home prices fall by maybe 25-30 percent and then stay flat for a while, leaving me with a nice equity. And my mortgage is very affordable; less than $1,200 per month.

The question is -- is this house somewhere where I'd want to live? It is -- it is in a county with a great school system, it is convenient to lots of things. It is very well constructed; built for military during WWII, it was built to withstand bombs. It has lots of green spaces, is on the historical register. It also is close to lots of things, including DC, so if we get an energy shortage, it will be much more appealing than the McMansions 30 miles out.

It strikes me as a good place to be in for the duration of the 4T -- unless of course, it ends up with DC being nuked or something. If that happens, and by chance my daughter and I survive, we will either find refugee in the hills of Western Maine with my Mom or crashing with my elder sister in Stockholm, Sweden. In either situation, I'm not going to be thinking about the balance of my mortgage! :shock:

Given the likelihood of a less dramatic scenario, I'm staying put. Even if I move, I'll probably just rent out my place. However, I'd advise people who live in McMansions in the exurbs to sell.
I want people to know that peace is possible even in this stupid day and age. Prem Rawat, June 8, 2008
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