Does mid-late 1980s suburban development in the Houston metro area equal McMansions, or are we speaking of the recent rash of communities coming out of nowhere that would make my neighborhood feel like the old section?

I can say for a fact that property values in our area are not favorable, so I suppose the best course if financial disaster comes is to stay put.

Originally Posted by casewestwill

What a mindf**k. When I mention anything regarding a housing crash or "major recession" to others, all I get are :lol: :wink: .

Sometimes you gotta do what you gotta do.

I feel your pain. After I sold we've watched house prices continue to rise and my wife and parents are questioning my hunches. Friends think I'm crazy when I talk about the saeculum ("too simple-minded").

Oy.

All I know is this . . . I am renting a house for about $200- $300 less per month than I would on a mortgage if I bought this house right now (including the interest deduction into my monthly calculation). There is something severely wrong with that. Can you say "bubble"? :shock:

Originally Posted by Hermione Granger

In either situation, I'm not going to be thinking about the balance of my mortgage! :shock:

Understandable.

Originally Posted by Hermione Granger

Given that my house is worth (on paper) at least in the high $300,000s, even if home prices fell in half, I would still have equity in my house. A more realistic scenario is that home prices fall by maybe 25-30 percent and then stay flat for a while, leaving me with a nice equity.

But as you well know, 4T's have a way of turning reality on it's head.

Originally Posted by Hermione Granger

It strikes me as a good place to be in for the duration of the 4T -- unless of course, it ends up with DC being nuked or something.

After New York, that would be Osama's dream.

Originally Posted by Hermione Granger

If that happens, and by chance my daughter and I survive, we will either find refugee in the hills of Western Maine with my Mom or crashing with my elder sister in Stockholm, Sweden. In either situation, I'm not going to be thinking about the balance of my mortgage! :shock:

Unless your boat is turned away (pesky refugees!). :shock:

Originally Posted by William Jennings Bryan

I feel your pain. After I sold we've watched house prices continue to rise and my wife and parents are questioning my hunches. Friends think I'm crazy when I talk about the saeculum ("too simple-minded").

What...............the theory is "too simple-minded" - you're "too-simple-minded" - or they're "too simple-minded"? :wink:

Didn't someone once say, "cast not your pearls before the swine"? :wink:

Nothing against our friends and family.

Originally Posted by casewestwill

Originally Posted by William Jennings Bryan

I feel your pain. After I sold we've watched house prices continue to rise and my wife and parents are questioning my hunches. Friends think I'm crazy when I talk about the saeculum ("too simple-minded").

What...............the theory is "too simple-minded" - you're "too-simple-minded" - or they're "too simple-minded"? :wink:

Didn't someone once say, "cast not your pearls before the swine"? :wink:

Nothing against our friends and family.

I recall a story about someone who made millions in the stock market. When asked how he made all his money, he replied "I sold too soon."

So last night on the local news they have a story about how my state (in the US) has the highest foreclosure rate in the nation. Turns out many ppl took advantage of the low interest rates to leverage themselves way too far. 75 houses went down on the auction block this week. Another 75 are set for next week.

Originally Posted by mgibbons19 (71)

So last night on the local news they have a story about how my state (in the US) has the highest foreclosure rate in the nation. Turns out many ppl took advantage of the low interest rates to leverage themselves way too far. 75 houses went down on the auction block this week. Another 75 are set for next week.

Drop in the bucket compared to what's coming.

Originally Posted by William Jennings Bryan

Originally Posted by mgibbons19 (71)

So last night on the local news they have a story about how my state (in the US) has the highest foreclosure rate in the nation. Turns out many ppl took advantage of the low interest rates to leverage themselves way too far. 75 houses went down on the auction block this week. Another 75 are set for next week.

Drop in the bucket compared to what's coming.

I think I've convinced my wife (tentatively) to put our house on the market (if we even have to do that). WJB - did you just bite the bullet and pay the capitial gains tax? Thats my biggest worry and the source of the most scorn from others.

Originally Posted by casewestwill

Originally Posted by William Jennings Bryan

Originally Posted by mgibbons19 (71)

So last night on the local news they have a story about how my state (in the US) has the highest foreclosure rate in the nation. Turns out many ppl took advantage of the low interest rates to leverage themselves way too far. 75 houses went down on the auction block this week. Another 75 are set for next week.

Drop in the bucket compared to what's coming.

I think I've convinced my wife (tentatively) to put our house on the market (if we even have to do that). WJB - did you just bite the bullet and pay the capitial gains tax? Thats my biggest worry and the source of the most scorn from others.

If you have lived in your house for the past two years straight or have lived there for a cumulative two years out of five that you've owned it, you will not be taxed on your first 500K of capital gains as a married couple. If you've made more than half a mil you will be taxed on that amount over -- overall, a problem you want to have.

The capital gains laws for real estate changed in the late 90's.

Thanks WJB - I didn't realize that. I guess I would have found that out when I got to that point. We will have no problem selling and we have been here for 11 years. Our financial advisor ( also my wife's, father's advisor :shock: ) will have a conniption fit, as will our family members (status conscious and all that), but what the hell. Short term treasuries here I come.... :wink:

Originally Posted by William Jennings Bryan

Originally Posted by casewestwill

Originally Posted by William Jennings Bryan

Originally Posted by mgibbons19 (71)

So last night on the local news they have a story about how my state (in the US) has the highest foreclosure rate in the nation. Turns out many ppl took advantage of the low interest rates to leverage themselves way too far. 75 houses went down on the auction block this week. Another 75 are set for next week.

Drop in the bucket compared to what's coming.

I think I've convinced my wife (tentatively) to put our house on the market (if we even have to do that). WJB - did you just bite the bullet and pay the capitial gains tax? Thats my biggest worry and the source of the most scorn from others.

If you have lived in your house for the past two years straight or have lived there for a cumulative two years out of five that you've owned it, you will not be taxed on your first 500K of capital gains as a married couple. If you've made more than half a mil you will be taxed on that amount over -- overall, a problem you want to have.

The capital gains laws for real estate changed in the late 90's.

And if you're single?

I am planning to put my house up for sale. My neighborhood is "changing", however, and I am concerned about the value falling. My neighbor has had his house up for sale for quite awhile...

If I am right about peak oil, would this trigger a Great Devaluation in the next couple years? As we enter another stagflationesque Energy Crisis, will we see 60-somethings (and even 50-somethings) worrying about how double (or even triple) digit "Misery Index" values will affect their retirement?

Originally Posted by Vince Lamb '59

And if you're single?

Up to half that, 250K.

Originally Posted by Tom Mazanec

If I am right about peak oil, would this trigger a Great Devaluation in the next couple years? As we enter another stagflationesque Energy Crisis, will we see 60-somethings (and even 50-somethings) worrying about how double (or even triple) digit "Misery Index" values will affect their retirement?

I'd sure imagine so! :shock:

Originally Posted by Tom Mazanec

I am planning to put my house up for sale. My neighborhood is "changing", however, and I am concerned about the value falling. My neighbor has had his house up for sale for quite awhile...

Is your neighborhood "de-gentrifying"? :?: :!: :?:

Originally Posted by William Jennings Bryan

Originally Posted by Vince Lamb '59

And if you're single?

Up to half that, 250K.

Thanks. I'm fine, then. My ex, on the other hand...

Originally Posted by William Jennings Bryan

Originally Posted by Tom Mazanec

If I am right about peak oil, would this trigger a Great Devaluation in the next couple years? As we enter another stagflationesque Energy Crisis, will we see 60-somethings (and even 50-somethings) worrying about how double (or even triple) digit "Misery Index" values will affect their retirement?

I'd sure imagine so! :shock:

Originally Posted by Tom Mazanec

I am planning to put my house up for sale. My neighborhood is "changing", however, and I am concerned about the value falling. My neighbor has had his house up for sale for quite awhile...

Is your neighborhood "de-gentrifying"? :?: :!: :?:

There were gentry in Maple Heights?

From CNNMoney's website:

Weakest in two years
10:22a
Personal incomes edged up just 0.1%, well below forecasts, but consumer spending rebounded.

With headlines like that....

...and this from today's Seattle Times:

Among homeowners, 22 percent spent more than 35 percent of their income to pay the mortgage in 2000 ? last year it went up to 26 percent. Washington was among 10 states with the biggest percentages of households spending more than 35 percent of their income on rent or mortgage, right up there with California and New York.

There must be an upper limit, or a saturation point, for how much the general population can spend on their homes. What if it rose to 50 percent? Is this evidence of an impending bubble burst, as many here predict? And does anyone really care that the banks are reaching ever more deeply into the pockets of ordinary people?

The banks already are holding too much debt. We have adopted indentured servitude to banks as a way of life -- "the better life" -- leaving our children and grandchildren at risk in ways no one seems to care about. But why should we care? They're spoiled brats anyway. Let them eat cake!

--Frenchie Croakmore

My neighborhood is going from old Caucasians to young African-Americans. While I do not have problems with individual African-Americans, I know that African-American neighborhoods tend to have lower property values.

Originally Posted by Tom Mazanec

My neighborhood is going from old Caucasians to young African-Americans. While I do not have problems with individual African-Americans, I know that African-American neighborhoods tend to have lower property values.

The problem is while African-Americans like to live in truly integrated neighborhoods (where the proportion of African-Americans or other persons of color is in the neighborhood of one-third to one-half), caucasians like the degree of integration to be less (say, less than one-quarter minority). So once more than a quarter of the neighborhood turns minority, the whites in the neighborhood more out, and outside whites don't move in, and since they are the majority of the US population, property values fall.

In the DC area, we have Prince George's County (where I grew up), where the professional blacks moved to once they could get good jobs (after Civil Rights opened up employment opportunities) and afford the suburban colonial or split level. The blue-collar whites moved out. You had the phenomenon of PG turning majority Black between 1970 and 1980 while county incomes rose. However, proporty values in this mostly middle-class bedroom community are the lowest of the major suburban counties surrounding DC. (Two other factors also hurt PG. One is low-income blacks who also followed their professional counterparts out of DC in the eighties. The second is a property tax cap that limits spending on public schools, which are worse than in any other DC suburban county.)

Originally Posted by Hermione Granger

Originally Posted by Tom Mazanec

My neighborhood is going from old Caucasians to young African-Americans. While I do not have problems with individual African-Americans, I know that African-American neighborhoods tend to have lower property values.

The problem is while African-Americans like to live in truly integrated neighborhoods (where the proportion of African-Americans or other persons of color is in the neighborhood of one-third to one-half), caucasians like the degree of integration to be less (say, less than one-quarter minority). So once more than a quarter of the neighborhood turns minority, the whites in the neighborhood more out, and outside whites don't move in, and since they are the majority of the US population, property values fall.

In the DC area, we have Prince George's County (where I grew up), where the professional blacks moved to once they could get good jobs (after Civil Rights opened up employment opportunities) and afford the suburban colonial or split level. The blue-collar whites moved out. You had the phenomenon of PG turning majority Black between 1970 and 1980 while county incomes rose. However, proporty values in this mostly middle-class bedroom community are the lowest of the major suburban counties surrounding DC. (Two other factors also hurt PG. One is low-income blacks who also followed their professional counterparts out of DC in the eighties. The second is a property tax cap that limits spending on public schools, which are worse than in any other DC suburban county.)

A point of disagreement, hon...I don't consider a neighborhood that is one-third to one-half African American to be "truly integrated", unless it's someplace like Mississippi or South Carolina. I would describe an integrated neighborhood as one which roughly mirrors the overall ethnic population of the region in which it is located, or (better yet) of the Nation as a whole. That to me means at most 15-20 percent "minority", including seven or eight percent black...roughly the demographic of my old neighborhood in West Seattle.

At any rate, the reason many Caucasians are creeped out when their neighborhood becomes heavily Black appears to be less about hatred, or concern over property values, as fear of being victimized because of their skin color. That fear is a feeling I can readily identify with...it's what happened to my family and me in New Jersey on account of our obviously-mixed heritage (which would be Native American, European and African) and demeanor.

IMHO, those Blacks Jenny describes who feel comfortable in places like PG (or more precisely, the part of PG inside the Beltway) are those who, for all their professed belief in civil rights and equal opportunity, really favor old-time segregation at the end of the day. I don't understand this at all, nor am I certain I really want to. For if separate but equal was their goal all along, what was the point of having a Civil Rights Movement at all?

Originally Posted by mgibbons19 (71)

From CNNMoney's website:

Weakest in two years 10:22a
Personal incomes edged up just 0.1%, well below forecasts, but consumer spending rebounded.

With headlines like that....

More horrific headlines...

• U.S. Economy Added 144,000 Jobs in August
  By REUTERS??8:45 AM ET
  The unemployment rate for August fell to 5.4 percent from 5.5 percent, the lowest since October 2001, the government reported today.

With headlines like that...

... Democrats haven't much to complain about. :wink:

Originally Posted by Devil's Advocate

More horrific headlines...

• U.S. Economy Added 144,000 Jobs in August
  By REUTERS??8:45 AM ET
  The unemployment rate for August fell to 5.4 percent from 5.5 percent, the lowest since October 2001, the government reported today.

With headlines like that...

... Democrats haven't much to complain about. :wink:

*Figures such as 144,000 may be seasonally (political season :wink: ) adusted after sixty plus days. Not that the numbers would be as the WMDs in Iraq, non-existent--just "massaged". In the coming Ownership Society the State will own the Statistics still. :arrow: :arrow: :arrow:

Hey DA,

Did ya hear you can pay off those credit cards with a second mortgage?? At today's low rates, you really don't need to throw the credit cards away when you're done either.