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Thread: Financial Crisis - Page 49







Post#1201 at 02-17-2005 02:20 PM by [at joined #posts ]
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Re: Come next year...

A post from before the U.S. election:

Quote Originally Posted by Virgil K. Saari
Quote Originally Posted by Devil's Advocate
More horrific headlines...
  • U.S. Economy Added 144,000 Jobs in August
    By REUTERS??8:45 AM ET
    The unemployment rate for August fell to 5.4 percent from 5.5 percent, the lowest since October 2001, the government reported today.
Come November 3rd... *Figures such as 144,000 may be seasonally (political season) adjusted after sixty plus days. Not that the numbers would be as the WMDs in Iraq, non-existent--just "massaged". In the coming Ownership Society the State will own the Statistics still.
It appears Virgil Saari was dead on with his prediction:
  • Bush tax cuts hurting the poor,
    analysts say

    WASHINGTON Feb 17, 2005 ? A gauge of future economic activity slipped a bit in January while the number of laid-off workers filing new claims for unemployment benefits dropped last week to the lowest level in more than four years.

    The decline in jobless claims caught analysts by surprise. They had been forecasting an increase of around 12,000, reflecting a predicted bounce up after the impressive declines of 9,000 and 12,000 in the previous two weeks.
Can a return of that dreaded disease, Affluenza, be far behind these horrific numbers? I think so. 8)







Post#1202 at 02-17-2005 09:19 PM by NickSmoliga [at joined Jan 2002 #posts 391]
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Not All Good News!

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor...bettingonchina

Betting on China | Thu Feb 17, 7:33 AM ET | Op/Ed - USATODAY.com

By Ted C. Fishman

Bill Gates (news - web sites) is betting on America's decline and putting his money on China's rise. Or so the Microsoft founder seemed to say last month at the World Economic Forum (news - web sites) held in Davos, Switzerland. "I'm short the dollar," he said. "The ol' dollar is going down."

At the same meeting, Gates linked his pessimism about the United States to optimism about China. He commended China as the great "change agent" in the world over the next 20 years and praised its "brand-new form of capitalism."

Gates isn't the only titan talking down the dollar and linking it to America's decline. Warren Buffett (news - web sites), Gates' friend and the world's second-richest man, has been bad-mouthing America's financial house and currency for two years. A panic in the greenback could conceivably net both men more than the cumulative lifetime earnings of thousands of their U.S. workers.

If the dollar drops like a rock, the greenback could well lose its prized place as the world's reserve currency. The dollar's special status gives it extra value around the world. Billionaires who talk the dollar down may ultimately cause harm to U.S. workers that far outweighs the growing trend to ship jobs abroad or outsource production to foreign companies. They risk America's global political clout.

Clout of currency

Without the reserve currency, the United States could fall into the debt trap long suffered, for instance, by Latin America. One immediate effect: Foreign investors would pull out of their American investments.

China held $191 billion in U.S. debt in 2004, but may not have been as willing to play banker to America were the dollar not the reserve currency. "Americans may discover abruptly that interest rates climb and the value of the assets ... declines," says Jeffrey Frankel, an economist at Harvard's Kennedy School. "When other countries have gone through similar crises, people panicked. Whether such a crisis might lead the U.S. to also lose much of its political power, it is hard to say. It is certainly possible."

On the bright side, Gates and Buffett may be doing Americans a big favor by waking us up to a fact so cold it may soon freeze our standard of living. That fact is that the Chinese economy has been on a 20-year growth spurt unprecedented in history.

China's promise looks so magnificent to big U.S. corporations and the super-rich that U.S. national interest and the long-term health of our economy count little. Indeed, they are contributing to huge outflows of U.S. money. This year, the U.S. trade deficit with China may top $170 billion, up more than 27-fold over the past 16 years.

A study released last month by the U.S. China Economic and Security Review Commission links the loss of 1.5 million U.S. jobs directly to our growing trade deficit with China. Far from taking only low-wage jobs, China is emerging in such fields as semiconductors. As China moves up the economic food chain, our deficits will grow and put strain on the dollar.

The Chinese, of course, do not create our deficits. The U.S. government and consumers overspend and overborrow. To get a piece of the Chinese market, U.S. companies spend billions to help build a Chinese economy that can churn out goods at prices U.S. manufacturers cannot match. Too often, they also help Chinese competitors who usurp U.S. jobs and technology. The Chinese government, in fact, has engineered a system in which companies can acquire high technology at exceedingly low cost. Often, without fear of consequence, they simply steal it.

Piracy common

Gates should know. More than 90% of his company's products that are used in China are pirated. And yet, Microsoft invests heavily in its Chinese business, and, like so many U.S. companies, is helping China build the cheap juggernaut economy that now poses the greatest challenges to us. Though Gates may be playing the world currency markets based on the vulnerability of the United States, it may be our very vulnerability that turns into our greatest strength.

China is far more dependent on U.S. consumers to buy its vast industrial output than on any others. Exports to Wal-Mart stores alone account for about 1% of the Chinese economy. Our unique position gives us the power to act to preserve our economic strength.

Reining in our budget and trade deficits is a start. Using our position as No. 1 customer gives us leverage to press for rules that give our companies a shot at the Chinese market without having to transplant pieces of our economy to their playing field. At home, we have the power to rein in U.S. companies that willingly shift homegrown technology abroad. One possibility might be to tax the goods such companies ship back to the U.S. market.

Conceding China's rise does not have to mean conceding to China. If the United States does not act forcefully to protect its economy and to keep its currency from losing its reserve status, the damage may take generations to reverse. We have the might to take the necessary steps, but only if we act now. Already, our greatest businessmen think we are doomed to fail.







Post#1203 at 02-18-2005 07:04 PM by Mikebert [at Kalamazoo MI joined Jul 2001 #posts 4,502]
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Re: Not All Good News!

Quote Originally Posted by Ted Fishman
Reining in our budget and trade deficits is a start.
How would this happen without tax increases? Ain't going to happen.

At home, we have the power to rein in U.S. companies that willingly shift homegrown technology abroad.
George Bush is going to rein in US companies?

Nick, do you buy any of this article?







Post#1204 at 02-18-2005 07:55 PM by Mr. Reed [at Intersection of History joined Jun 2001 #posts 4,376]
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Re: Not All Good News!

Quote Originally Posted by NickSmoliga
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/usatoday/20050217/cm_usatoday/bettingonchina

Betting on China | Thu Feb 17, 7:33 AM ET | Op/Ed - USATODAY.com

By Ted C. Fishman

Bill Gates (news - web sites) is betting on America's decline and putting his money on China's rise. Or so the Microsoft founder seemed to say last month at the World Economic Forum (news - web sites) held in Davos, Switzerland. "I'm short the dollar," he said. "The ol' dollar is going down."
...
Conceding China's rise does not have to mean conceding to China. If the United States does not act forcefully to protect its economy and to keep its currency from losing its reserve status, the damage may take generations to reverse. We have the might to take the necessary steps, but only if we act now. Already, our greatest businessmen think we are doomed to fail.
I find this kinda disturbing. China's capitalism is "good" only because it is based upon violations of human rights that would NEVER be tolerated here in the US. Maybe Gates should move to China.
"The urge to dream, and the will to enable it is fundamental to being human and have coincided with what it is to be American." -- Neil deGrasse Tyson
intp '82er







Post#1205 at 02-18-2005 08:25 PM by NickSmoliga [at joined Jan 2002 #posts 391]
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Op-Ed from USA Today

Mike Alexander '59 asked:

Nick, do you buy any of this article?
Only that Bill Gates' is pessimistic about the future of America, and that he sees growth in China. Being an Op-Ed, it's largely Ted C. Fishman's opinion. A lot of people read USA Today (the standard free paper in many motels in America), so some of them will be influenced by the article.







Post#1206 at 02-21-2005 03:23 PM by Mikebert [at Kalamazoo MI joined Jul 2001 #posts 4,502]
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I have a new article on gold-eagle and safehaven.

Prudent bear decided to give it pass, given its bullish implications.







Post#1207 at 02-21-2005 04:02 PM by Marx & Lennon [at '47 cohort still lost in Falwelland joined Sep 2001 #posts 16,709]
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Re: Not All Good News!

Quote Originally Posted by Shemsu Heru
Quote Originally Posted by NickSmoliga
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/usatoday/20050217/cm_usatoday/bettingonchina

Betting on China | Thu Feb 17, 7:33 AM ET | Op/Ed - USATODAY.com

By Ted C. Fishman

Bill Gates (news - web sites) is betting on America's decline and putting his money on China's rise. Or so the Microsoft founder seemed to say last month at the World Economic Forum (news - web sites) held in Davos, Switzerland. "I'm short the dollar," he said. "The ol' dollar is going down."
...
Conceding China's rise does not have to mean conceding to China. If the United States does not act forcefully to protect its economy and to keep its currency from losing its reserve status, the damage may take generations to reverse. We have the might to take the necessary steps, but only if we act now. Already, our greatest businessmen think we are doomed to fail.
I find this kinda disturbing. China's capitalism is "good" only because it is based upon violations of human rights that would NEVER be tolerated here in the US. Maybe Gates should move to China.
Yes, it's Fascionable.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.







Post#1208 at 02-24-2005 01:24 PM by Child of Socrates [at Cybrarian from America's Dairyland, 1961 cohort joined Sep 2001 #posts 14,092]
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Honey, I Shrunk the Dollar by Thomas Friedman in today's NYT.







Post#1209 at 02-24-2005 05:24 PM by antichrist [at I'm in the Big City now, boy! joined Sep 2003 #posts 1,655]
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Quote Originally Posted by NYT
'If we didn't have Air Force One, we never could have afforded this trip on your salary!'
That's funny







Post#1210 at 02-25-2005 03:11 PM by Zarathustra [at Where the Northwest meets the Southwest joined Mar 2003 #posts 9,198]
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Quote Originally Posted by Kiff 1961
Honey, I Shrunk the Dollar by Thomas Friedman in today's NYT.
Exactly.
Americans have had enough of glitz and roar . . Foreboding has deepened, and spiritual currents have darkened . . .
THE FOURTH TURNING IS AT HAND.
See T4T, p. 253.







Post#1211 at 02-26-2005 11:49 PM by Virgil K. Saari [at '49er, north of the Mesabi Mountains joined Jun 2001 #posts 7,835]
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The Greatest Generation gives us a gift

Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Michael Kinsley
Perusing the real estate ads like pornography and imagining what our houses are worth is the great American pastime. But a real estate crash, if it came, would have some advantages. The 19th-century American Henry George explained how rising real estate values harm the economy by operating as a tax on both labor and capital. Money for labor makes people work harder. Money for capital makes people save more. Both make the country richer. Money for land just makes the owner richer. There are all sorts of complications and qualifications, but the basic point is a good one.

People do foolish things under the impression that they are getting richer because their houses are worth more. They save less, they spend more. Egged on by television commercials, they "consolidate their debts" (i.e., buy a new boat) with a second mortgage. And who really gains from soaring house prices? First-time buyers don't. Nor does anyone who plans ever to trade up. The only beneficiaries are those who are selling their last house, after a lifetime of appreciation. The bigger the house, the bigger the windfall. This is yet another thank-you from America to the so-called Greatest Generation. I'm not sure it's necessary.
Bye-Bye, Housing Boom







Post#1212 at 02-27-2005 12:20 AM by [at joined #posts ]
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02-27-2005, 12:20 AM #1212
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Re: The Greatest Generation gives us a gift

Quote Originally Posted by Virgil K. Saari
Ah, yes, utter disaster is Just around the corner. Or is it, Happy Days Are Here Again?

Pick your posion, er, redemption, my dear Saari. It's all the same, for the American Peasantry, eh? 8)







Post#1213 at 02-27-2005 12:20 PM by Tom Mazanec [at NE Ohio 1958 joined Sep 2001 #posts 1,511]
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Post#1214 at 02-28-2005 10:32 AM by antichrist [at I'm in the Big City now, boy! joined Sep 2003 #posts 1,655]
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I'm listening to NPR right now and they are doing a piece on the bankruptcy bill going through the system right now. Apparently it will make it harder for citizens to obtain bankruptcies.

Now I am all for personal responisbility - you signed for it you pay it.

BUT, if these credit companies can't effectively judge risk, why should the rest of the world subsidize them? Bankrupt debtors are only half the equation. Irresponsible lenders who can't effectively measure risk are the other half. If their math is that bad, they should eat the cost themselves. Dumbasses. "Please congress protect us from the miserable rabble - well yeah we did give a credit card to his dog."







Post#1215 at 02-28-2005 10:32 AM by antichrist [at I'm in the Big City now, boy! joined Sep 2003 #posts 1,655]
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I'm listening to NPR right now and they are doing a piece on the bankruptcy bill going through the system right now. Apparently it will make it harder for citizens to obtain bankruptcies.

Now I am all for personal responisbility - you signed for it you pay it.

BUT, if these credit companies can't effectively judge risk, why should the rest of the world subsidize them? Bankrupt debtors are only half the equation. Irresponsible lenders who can't effectively measure risk are the other half. If their math is that bad, they should eat the cost themselves. Dumbasses. "Please congress protect us from the miserable rabble - well yeah we did give a credit card to his dog."







Post#1216 at 02-28-2005 11:34 AM by Zarathustra [at Where the Northwest meets the Southwest joined Mar 2003 #posts 9,198]
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Quote Originally Posted by mgibbons19 (71)
I'm listening to NPR right now and they are doing a piece on the bankruptcy bill going through the system right now. Apparently it will make it harder for citizens to obtain bankruptcies.

Now I am all for personal responisbility - you signed for it you pay it.

BUT, if these credit companies can't effectively judge risk, why should the rest of the world subsidize them? Bankrupt debtors are only half the equation. Irresponsible lenders who can't effectively measure risk are the other half. If their math is that bad, they should eat the cost themselves. Dumbasses. "Please congress protect us from the miserable rabble - well yeah we did give a credit card to his dog."
I am in total agreement.
Americans have had enough of glitz and roar . . Foreboding has deepened, and spiritual currents have darkened . . .
THE FOURTH TURNING IS AT HAND.
See T4T, p. 253.







Post#1217 at 02-28-2005 11:34 AM by Zarathustra [at Where the Northwest meets the Southwest joined Mar 2003 #posts 9,198]
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Quote Originally Posted by mgibbons19 (71)
I'm listening to NPR right now and they are doing a piece on the bankruptcy bill going through the system right now. Apparently it will make it harder for citizens to obtain bankruptcies.

Now I am all for personal responisbility - you signed for it you pay it.

BUT, if these credit companies can't effectively judge risk, why should the rest of the world subsidize them? Bankrupt debtors are only half the equation. Irresponsible lenders who can't effectively measure risk are the other half. If their math is that bad, they should eat the cost themselves. Dumbasses. "Please congress protect us from the miserable rabble - well yeah we did give a credit card to his dog."
I am in total agreement.
Americans have had enough of glitz and roar . . Foreboding has deepened, and spiritual currents have darkened . . .
THE FOURTH TURNING IS AT HAND.
See T4T, p. 253.







Post#1218 at 02-28-2005 01:03 PM by The Wonkette [at Arlington, VA 1956 joined Jul 2002 #posts 9,209]
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Quote Originally Posted by mgibbons19 (71)
I'm listening to NPR right now and they are doing a piece on the bankruptcy bill going through the system right now. Apparently it will make it harder for citizens to obtain bankruptcies.

Now I am all for personal responisbility - you signed for it you pay it.

BUT, if these credit companies can't effectively judge risk, why should the rest of the world subsidize them? Bankrupt debtors are only half the equation. Irresponsible lenders who can't effectively measure risk are the other half. If their math is that bad, they should eat the cost themselves. Dumbasses. "Please congress protect us from the miserable rabble - well yeah we did give a credit card to his dog."
Apparently some Harvard profs did a study on people filing for bankruptcy. Half of all those filing were pushed to insolvency because of medical expenses.

A typical scenario is that someone has health issues, misses work, gets laid off, and then loses their health insurance.

Isn't our system great?
I want people to know that peace is possible even in this stupid day and age. Prem Rawat, June 8, 2008







Post#1219 at 02-28-2005 01:03 PM by The Wonkette [at Arlington, VA 1956 joined Jul 2002 #posts 9,209]
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Quote Originally Posted by mgibbons19 (71)
I'm listening to NPR right now and they are doing a piece on the bankruptcy bill going through the system right now. Apparently it will make it harder for citizens to obtain bankruptcies.

Now I am all for personal responisbility - you signed for it you pay it.

BUT, if these credit companies can't effectively judge risk, why should the rest of the world subsidize them? Bankrupt debtors are only half the equation. Irresponsible lenders who can't effectively measure risk are the other half. If their math is that bad, they should eat the cost themselves. Dumbasses. "Please congress protect us from the miserable rabble - well yeah we did give a credit card to his dog."
Apparently some Harvard profs did a study on people filing for bankruptcy. Half of all those filing were pushed to insolvency because of medical expenses.

A typical scenario is that someone has health issues, misses work, gets laid off, and then loses their health insurance.

Isn't our system great?
I want people to know that peace is possible even in this stupid day and age. Prem Rawat, June 8, 2008







Post#1220 at 03-02-2005 12:27 AM by Tom Mazanec [at NE Ohio 1958 joined Sep 2001 #posts 1,511]
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Post#1221 at 03-02-2005 07:33 AM by NickSmoliga [at joined Jan 2002 #posts 391]
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Unemployment Up, Currency Falling








Post#1222 at 03-04-2005 11:45 AM by Tom Mazanec [at NE Ohio 1958 joined Sep 2001 #posts 1,511]
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Post#1223 at 03-07-2005 06:17 PM by Mikebert [at Kalamazoo MI joined Jul 2001 #posts 4,502]
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I have a new article on gold-eagle and safehaven.

Prudent bear decided to give it pass, given its bullish implications







Post#1224 at 03-08-2005 01:27 AM by Tom Mazanec [at NE Ohio 1958 joined Sep 2001 #posts 1,511]
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http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P108402.asp

The housing bubble pop will be nasty.







Post#1225 at 03-09-2005 07:48 AM by Tom Mazanec [at NE Ohio 1958 joined Sep 2001 #posts 1,511]
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