Originally Posted by Devil's Advocate

What this means exactly, as Mr. Mazanec duly notes, is that if Bush Sucks, then absolute Bush Sucks Absolutely. Tis a giant "sucking sound" I hear!

Taint no doubt 'bout that, ya'all. :wink:

Mr. M.'s post was about these folks, Mr. Devil. Not many stock holders in this group, ya'all. :wink:



Our Financial Failings
Family Savings Look Scary Across the Board

By Neil Irwin
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, March 5, 2006; Page F01

Meet the typical American family.

It has about $3,800 in the bank. No one has a retirement account, and the neighbors who do only have about $35,000 in theirs. Mutual funds? Stocks? Bonds? Nope. The house is worth $160,000, but the family owes $95,000 on it to the bank. The breadwinners make more than $43,000 a year but can't manage to pay off a $2,200 credit card balance......

Originally Posted by cbailey

Mr. M.'s post was about these folks, Mr. Devil. Not many stock holders in this group, ya'all. :wink:

Bush doesn't suck absolutely for those folks? Gee whiz, how much absolute suckin' can one guy do?

Originally Posted by Devil's Advocate

Originally Posted by cbailey

Mr. M.'s post was about these folks, Mr. Devil. Not many stock holders in this group, ya'all. :wink:

Bush doesn't suck absolutely for those folks? Gee whiz, how much absolute suckin' can one guy do?

I would imagine that you'd be able to answer that one quite easily...... You seem to be quite obsessed with the act of sucking.

Housing bubble popping:
http://money.cnn.com/2006/03/24/news...ex.htm?cnn=yes

Originally Posted by Tom Mazanec

Housing bubble popping:
http://money.cnn.com/2006/03/24/news...ex.htm?cnn=yes

These past few months, I've seen several articles, in various places, pointing in the same direction.

Originally Posted by cbailey

Originally Posted by Devil's Advocate

Originally Posted by cbailey

Mr. M.'s post was about these folks, Mr. Devil. Not many stock holders in this group, ya'all. :wink:

Bush doesn't suck absolutely for those folks? Gee whiz, how much absolute suckin' can one guy do?

I would imagine that you'd be able to answer that one quite easily...... You seem to be quite obsessed with the act of sucking.

He gets offended if you point that out. So keep on pointing it out. 8)

The U.S. unemployment figures are soaring again. Now, more than ever, Bush sucks:

• Apr 07 8:39 AM US/Eastern
  By JEANNINE AVERSA
  AP Economics Writer
  
  WASHINGTON (AP) Employers, in a springtime hiring burst, boosted payrolls by a sizable 211,000 in March and pushed the nation's unemployment rate down to...

Newest squeeze on consumers:
http://www.tdn.com/articles/2006/04/08/biz/news02.txt

Currency crisis?
http://jang.com.pk/thenews/apr2006-d...6/world/w3.htm

Originally Posted by Tom Mazanec

Currency crisis?
http://jang.com.pk/thenews/apr2006-d...6/world/w3.htm

Originally Posted by Kaleem Omar

The first and biggest risk, he says, is that the dollar collapses. Over the last two years, the dollar has fallen nearly fifty per cent against the euro - from 82 cents to the euro in 2004 to $ 1.42 to the euro today. And with American consumers (and their government" spending like crazy and saving almost nothing, the United States has been forced to look overseas to countries like China and Japan for funds to invest in business equipment, buildings and the like.

This is big news to me and a lot of other people. One euro today
equals $1.21, almost exactly what it was two years ago.

John

The latest on the housing bubble:
http://www.safehaven.com/article-5006.htm
http://housingbubblecasualty.com/?cat=2
http://www.financialsense.com/editor...2006/0422.html

Congress quietly extended tax cuts for their rich buddies today. That will make the headlines while the following will not be heard on today's evening news:

• A flood of income tax payments pushed up government receipts to the second-highest level in history in April, giving the country a sizable surplus for the month.
  
  In its monthly accounting of the government's books, the Treasury Department said Wednesday that revenue for the month totaled $315.1 billion as Americans filed their tax returns by the April deadline. The gusher of tax revenue pushed total receipts up by 13.4 percent from April 2005.
  
  It marked the largest one-month receipt total since the government collected $332 billion in revenue in April 2001, reflecting a boom in capital gains from stock investors lucky enough to cash out their investments before the bursting of the stock market bubble in early 2000

Obviously Bush's tax cutting madness is not working. Well, duh, that's because Bush and tax cuts suck.

Originally Posted by Devil's Advocate

Congress quietly extended tax cuts for their rich buddies today. That will make the headlines while the following will not be heard on today's evening news:

• A flood of income tax payments pushed up government receipts to the second-highest level in history in April, giving the country a sizable surplus for the month.
  
  In its monthly accounting of the government's books, the Treasury Department said Wednesday that revenue for the month totaled $315.1 billion as Americans filed their tax returns by the April deadline. The gusher of tax revenue pushed total receipts up by 13.4 percent from April 2005.
  
  It marked the largest one-month receipt total since the government collected $332 billion in revenue in April 2001, reflecting a boom in capital gains from stock investors lucky enough to cash out their investments before the bursting of the stock market bubble in early 2000

Obviously Bush's tax cutting madness is not working. Well, duh, that's because Bush and tax cuts suck.

If I had to guess, I'd put my money on underestimated income, and inadequate withholding leading to the tax payments submitted with tax returns. I would also hope that at least April can generate a surplus, since the rest of the year is pathetic.

I just came across this on Sunday night:

Monday 15 May 2006
Markets braced for the worst
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (Filed: 15/05/2006)

Global markets are bracing for turmoil today after an ominous slide in the US dollar and a slump in equity and bond prices late last week sent tremors through the global financial system, evoking memories of the 1987 crash.



Emerging economies have led the sell-off as investors recoil from risky assets, pummelling stocks and bonds in Turkey, Hungary, Iceland and much of Latin America.

The currencies of Brazil, Mexico and South Africa all suffered their sharpest falls in two years as foreign funds rushed for the exits.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial index fell 262 points over Thursday and Friday to 11381, setting off contagion in Japan and Europe. The FTSE 100 had its worst drop in three years on Friday, falling 129.9 points, or 2.2pc, to 5912.1.

Analysts said there were now clear signs that monetary tightening by the world's central banks was starting to crimp growth. Lombard Street Research warned the US was now heading into outright recession, with China also facing a hard landing.

"Stock markets in the middle of 2006 are confronting a tight Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, sharply higher bond yields, and a downswing in potential profits," it said.

It raised the risk of "an impending financial crisis" caused by excess credit and leverage across the global economy. The group advised investors to liquidate stocks and move into cash yen until the storm has blown over.

The dollar has slumped 6pc against the euro and 8pc against the yen this year as the markets anticipate an end to interest-rate rises by the US Federal Reserve, switching attention back to America's debt mountain and current account deficit of 7pc of GDP.

Volkmar Hable, chairman of Samarium Technology, said the world was now on the brink of a dollar crisis.

"The crash in the autumn of 1987 started with a massive dollar and bond decline in the spring. We are experiencing exactly the same now," he said.

Ominously, bonds are no longer viewed as a safe haven, a sign of fear that inflation is gaining a foothold in the major economies.

Interest rates on 10-year Treasury bonds have jumped from 4.36pc to 5.19pc since February, in part because Asian investors are demanding a higher premium for holding risky dollar investments. The 10-year bond is the benchmark for economic activity in the US, setting corporate borrowing rates and the cost of most mortgages.

The bond slide is exacting a toll on the US property market, where the price of new homes has fallen for five consecutive months. A half-year inventory of unsold houses now hangs over the market.

Goldman Sachs, however, is sticking to its optimistic forecast, banking on a seamless "hand-over" from a slowing US economy to a re-awakening Europe and Japan, while China will continue to be an engine of global growth. The IMF is also bullish, forecasting roaring growth of 4.9pc in 2006, one of the highest rates in half a century.

End of the yen carry trade
http://deconsumption.typepad.com/dec...d_of_an_e.html

Stocks about to crash?
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2006/0531.html

Originally Posted by Tom Mazanec

Stocks about to crash?
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2006/0531.html

From the same site:
THE GREATER DEPRESSION

. . . it all seems to fit.

Originally Posted by Lorin

Originally Posted by Tom Mazanec

Stocks about to crash?
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2006/0531.html

From the same site:
THE GREATER DEPRESSION

. . . it all seems to fit.

I'd be interested in the opinions of other economists/historians on this forum: Does Doug Casey make too much of a fuss over the price of gold?

Originally Posted by Croakmore

Originally Posted by Lorin

Originally Posted by Tom Mazanec

Stocks about to crash?
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2006/0531.html

From the same site:
THE GREATER DEPRESSION

. . . it all seems to fit.

I'd be interested in the opinions of other economists/historians on this forum: Does Doug Casey make too much of a fuss over the price of gold?

What is the price of gold in Euros, in loonies, in kroner, in yen, etc. ? Is it a world-wide run up in metal or is it rather a fall of the USD?

Originally Posted by Virgil K. Saari

Originally Posted by Croakmore

Originally Posted by Lorin

Originally Posted by Tom Mazanec

Stocks about to crash?
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2006/0531.html

From the same site:
THE GREATER DEPRESSION

. . . it all seems to fit.

I'd be interested in the opinions of other economists/historians on this forum: Does Doug Casey make too much of a fuss over the price of gold?

What is the price of gold in Euros, in loonies, in kroner, in yen, etc. ? Is it a world-wide run up in metal or is it rather a fall of the USD?

found these in a few seconds, Virgil:

http://www.the-privateer.com/g-charts.html#precious

the Kitco currency exchange rates (and gold fixes), bottom of page:

http://www.kitco.com/

http://www.kitconet.com/webcharts/au_en_euro.html

going down in euro's, up in dollars for gold (USD losing value):

http://www.usagold.com/gold-price.html

http://www.goldcalculator.com/page0040.htm (short range)

Gold's January 1980 high of $850 works out to $2088.90 according to the CPI-U.

Why the national debt is a problem:
http://www.motherjones.com/commentar...t_worries.html

On the brink, according to Morgan Stanley ( Roach):


Global: Not Much Fizz Left in the Global Economy

Stephen S. Roach (New York)




There is nothing like the seduction of a boom. The recent vigour of global economic growth is a siren song. By International Monetary Fund metrics, world gross domestic product growth probably averaged 4.8 percent over 2003-06, the strongest four years since the early 1970s. As tempting as it is to extrapolate this into the future, that may be a serious mistake. There is a much better chance that global growth has peaked and the boom is about to fizzle.

The world’s main growth engine, the US, is slowing. That is the verdict from the labour market, with job growth in the past four months running 35 percent below average since early 2004. It is the verdict from the housing market, where an emerging downturn in residential construction activity is knocking at least 1 percentage point off the GDP growth trend of the past three years. And notwithstanding July’s temporary bounce-back in retail sales, it is a message from the consumer, whose inflation-adjusted spending growth fell to 2.5 percent in the spring period – one percentage point below the heady trend of the past decade.

America’s slowdown represents an important transition in the sources of economic growth, away from the vigorous wealth creation of asset bubbles – first equities, then housing – and back towards more subdued labour income generation. The delayed impact of higher interest rates is also taking a toll. Even though the Federal Reserve has put its two-year monetary tightening campaign on hold, there is a risk it has already gone too far. The confluence of higher energy prices, rising debt-servicing burdens, and negative personal saving rates reinforces the possibility of a pullback in discretionary US consumption and GDP growth.

This is an equally critical transition for the global economy. The world is about to lose significant support from the key driving force on the demand side of the equation – the American consumer. In a post-bubble climate, US households will be unable to save through asset appreciation, prompting America to increase income-based saving and reduce its claim on the pool of global saving. That points to a long-awaited reduction in the big US current account deficit – initially painful for export-dependent economies elsewhere in the world but ultimately a welcome resolution for global imbalances.

But who ill fill the void as the US consumer pulls back? The simple answer is; maybe no one. Europe, the world’s second largest consumer, is an unlikely candidate. Surprising economic growth on the Continent this year may be borrowing from gains that might have otherwise occurred in 2007. The European economy is about to be hit with a “triple whammy”: a big tightening in fiscal policy, the delayed impact of monetary tightening, and the drag of a stronger euro. Growth in the eurozone may exceed 2.5 percent this year, marking the strongest gain since 2000. Next year, it could slip back below 1.5 percent.

Do not count on a rejuvenated Japanese economy to fill the gap either. In dollar terms, Japanese personal consumption is only 30 percent of that in America; that means every 1 percentage point of slower consumption growth in the US would have to be replaced by about 3 percentage points of acceleration from Japan. As a weak second quarter GDP report indicates, such a surge is unlikely, especially as Japan copes with a stronger yen and higher energy prices. While growth in Japanese GDP should exceed 2.5 percent this year, in 2007 it could slow to less than 2 percent.

Nor are the two dynamos of developing Asia – China and India – likely to counter the slowing trend in the developed world. China has a seriously overheated economy. With real GDP surging at an 11.3 percent annual rate in the spring period and industrial output growing at a record 19.5 percent year on year in June, Beijing has little choice but to introduce tightening initiatives. A failure to do so could see trade protectionism squeezing exports and a deflationary overhang of excess capacity leading to an investment bust. China must shift its economy towards private consumption, a sector that sagged to just 38 percent of GDP in 2005. (A healthy rate would be at least 50 percent.)

All this points to a moderation of China’s growth beginning in 2007, with attendant reductions in its voracious appetite for commodities. That should spawn additional ripple effects in commodity producers such as Australia, Canada, Brazil and Africa. The world’s big oil producers would also feel repercussions from a Chinese slowdown. As would China’s Asian suppliers, such as Japan, Korea and Taiwan.

India is far too small to pick up the slack – less than half the size of China on a purchasing power parity basis. After more than 15 years of reforms, its growth has broken out to the upside – averaging 8 percent in fiscal years 2004-5. There was hope that a rebalancing from services to manufacturing would provide new impetus to growth, and the government seemed willing to tackle deficiencies of infrastructure, foreign direct investment, and saving. Unfortunately, the reformers have been stymied by the politics of coalition management. Imperatives of fiscal consolidation, with the delayed effects of recent monetary tightening, could also tip growth risks to the downside.

There is a deeper meaning to the coming slowdown. The global boom of the past four years was never sustainable. It was supported by the excesses of the liquidity cycle, which arose from emergency anti-deflationary actions of the world’s big central banks. The ensuing vigour of global growth was dominated by the US consumer, but America’s binge came at the cost of a record drawdown of domestic saving funded by the capital inflows of a record US current account deficit. The boom was balanced precariously on unprecedented global imbalances.

Excess liquidity bought time for a precarious world. As central banks move to normalise monetary policy, that time has run out. Without the unsustainable support of asset bubbles, it is back to basics – with aggregate demand supported by more modest labour income generation rather than the excesses of wealth creation. So much for the artificial boom of an unbalanced world. It could be about to fizzle out.

Note: This appeared as an editorial feature in the 14 August 2006 edition of the Financial Times.http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata...n.html#anchor0

The "end game" has looked like it was arriving for years now. I am preparig for it, but I'll believe it when I see it.

I am not going to underestimate the Fed's ability to create "growth", at least for a while, via the printing press. I mean, come on. They're withholding M3 data for a reason. Aren't they?

Originally Posted by Zarathustra

The "end game" has looked like it was arriving for years now. I am preparig for it, but I'll believe it when I see it.

I am not going to underestimate the Fed's ability to create "growth", at least for a while, via the printing press. I mean, come on. They're withholding M3 data for a reason. Aren't they?

That's my conclusion. Apparently the world is awash in dollars. And, judging by the ideology of this Federal Reserve, as soon as America has a president not named Bush, especially if it's a Democrat, Berneke is going to tighten the money supply Volker style, which will have the same effect as springing the trap door on a gallows and leaveing the economy swinging from the noose. :evil: