Economic Cycles   Global technology cycles - Kondratieff cycles   Generational cycles and bubbles   A new "Great Depression"
	The 1930s Great Depression Dow Jones Industrial Average - 1896 to 1940   Characteristics of 1930s Great Depression -   Big credit bubble in 1920s - borrowed money to bid up stock prices -   Nobody knew what was going on until a month into stock market crash -   1920s stock market bubble CAUSED the 1930s Great Depression -   Establishment of SEC and stock market regulations specifically designed to prevent another credit bubble   1929 collapse -   Stock market became increasingly volatile -   Below a certain level hit a 'tipping point' -   People forced to sell to meet margin credit requirements   Previous big credit bubbles -   Panic of 1857 (prior to Civil War) -   British banking failure in 1772
	The 1990s Credit Bubble Dow Jones Industrial Average - 1896 to 2002   New 1990s credit bubble (using stock options)   Complete failure of SEC and stock market regs   Trend line (exponential) -   Current (early 2003) value: Above 10000 -   Trend value in 2010: 5800 -   Predicts fall to around 4000 in next few years
	Credit bubbles - logarithmic scale Dow Jones Industrial Average - 1896 to 2002   Graph now shows both credit bubbles
	S&P 500 Index, adjusted for inflation S&P 500 Price Index - 1870 to 2002   For those who consider the DJIA to be too artificial   Trend line (exponential) -   Current (early 2003) value: Above 1100 -   Trend value in 2010: 589 -   Predicts fall to around 400 in next few years
	S&P 500 Price/Earnings Ratio S&P 500 Price/Earnings Index - 1881 to 2002   P/E Ratio measures price of stock vs historical earnings -   Historical average around 13 -   Above 18: Stocks are expensive -   Below 10: Stocks are inexpensive -   Historically goes below 10 after exceeding 20 -   Predicts stock market fall of 50% or more
	Generational Economic Cycles   Credit bubbles every 70-90 years (generational cycle) during 'unraveling' period -   Credit bubble / depression creates a risk-aversive generation -   New bubble when previous risk-aversive generation retires -   Financial crisis and war crisis reinforce each other   "Crusty Old Bureaucracy" theory -   Informal (not rigorous) explanation -   Every organization becomes bureaucratic in time - bankruptcy -   Same rules applies to entire nation in 70-90 year cycles
	Greenspan and the Federal Reserve   Greenspan in 1997 -   Had referred to "irrational exuberance" -   Knew that a stock market bubble was forming -   Decided to deal with consequences rather than end bubble   Federal Reserve after 2000 -   Prevent 1929 forced selling 'tipping point' -   Reduced interest rates (overnight funds rate) to 1%   Consequences of low interest rate -   Housing bubble -   High auto sales -   Increased personal borrowing during unemployment -   Extension of stock market bubble   Medium range risks -   Collapse of Chinese credit bubble -   Oil disruption through Mideast war -   Loss of confidence after terrorist attack -   Cyclic downturn spiraling down
	Technology (Kondratieff) versus Generational Cycles Technology cycles versus generational bubbles   Identifying technology cycles -   Smooth the S&P index, ignoring bubbles -   Cycle length 40-50 years -   Technology (Kondratieff) cycles have been identified for hundreds of years   Technology versus Generational cycles -   Technology cycles are global, generational cycles are local -   Entirely independent - can enhance or cancel each other

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