	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

\| HOME \| WEB LOG \| COUNTRY WIKI \| COMMENT \| FORUM \| DOWNLOADS \| ABOUT \|

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 26-Dec-04
Up to 50,000 workers riot and clash with police in southeast China

Web Log - December, 2004

Up to 50,000 workers riot and clash with police in southeast China

As income disparities and food problems continue to grow in China, incidents of social unrest have been increasing throughout China.

China and its provinces <font size=-2>(Source: The Economist)</font>

China and its provinces (Source: The Economist)

Yesterday's incident occurred in Guangdong province, near the border of Hunan province. It was triggered by a traffic accident, which led to a confrontation, which led to major riots, as workers clashed with local security forces.

The same kind of thing happened last month in central China, when a traffic accident triggered violent clashes between Muslim and non-Muslim Chinese.

Guangdong is a historically significant region for riots. China's last two crisis civil wars both began in this region. The Taiping Rebellion began here in 1852, and Mao Zedong's Long March began here in 1934. In each case, the results were devastating for China. The rebellion spread north to Beijing and out into the midlands, killing tens of millions of people each time. If the current rebellion grows and spreads, deaths will once again reach the hundreds of millions.

Generational Dynamics predicts that there will a new country-wide rebellion within the next few years, with near 100% certainty.

China is currently in a "generational unraveling" period, with the overheated economy in a bubble that may burst at any time. Mao's entire social structure, which required peasants to remain on the farm and factory workers to live in the cities, is unraveling. Individual peasant farms are being taken over by large farming businesses, and tens of millions of peasants have been forced into the cities as migrant workers for their livelihood, where they're ill-prepared to cope with financial problems that may arise.

Guangdong province has been a major beneficiary of the new economy, as it's one of the wealthiest provinces, earning about $2,000 per year per person, but is adjacent to Jiangxi and Guangxi provinces that earn only $100-200 per person per year. These enormous income disparities form a major engine of the social unrest.

However, an analysis in the new issue of Taiwan Journal indicates that food is an increasingly critical issue. According to the article, industrial construction and erosion are eating up 0.5% of China's farmland each year. China has lost 2/3 of its farmland in 40 years, but has 2.3 times as many people.

(Using my standard benchmark measure of 0.96% annual increase in food production per acre of farmland, the above figures mean that the amount of food per capita is ((2 / 3) / 2.3) * (1.0096^40) = 42% of what it was 40 years ago.)

China's food problems are consistent with what's happening in the rest of the world. A Washington Post analysis earlier this year indicated that food prices are skyrocketing around the world. This is happening because of the "Malthus Effect," which causes the population to grow faster than the food supply, except during major genocidal wars. This causes food to become relatively scarce, causing food prices to rise. China has particularly added to this problem in the couple of years, as it's been importing food to feed people in its overheated economy.

This makes China's food problems are especially critical, when combined with the other problems. If there's a recession in China in 2005, and some analysts are predicting there will be, then China won't be able to import enough food to meet its shortfall, and migrant workers will be unable to get jobs and make money to send back to their families in rural areas. This is certain to foment further social unrest. (26-Dec-04) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Web Log Pages

Current Web Log

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 26-Dec-04 Up to 50,000 workers riot and clash with police in southeast China

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 26-Dec-04
Up to 50,000 workers riot and clash with police in southeast China