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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Sep-2008
Consequences of Russia/Georgia conflict spread to southern Caucasus

Web Log - September, 2008

Consequences of Russia/Georgia conflict spread to southern Caucasus

Will "football diplomacy" save the day?

Last February, when the West allowed Kosovo to secede from Serbia over strong Russian objections, Vladimir Putin, then President of Russia, was quoted as saying something to the effect the West didn't understand what it was unleashing with this move.

It appears that Putin's prediction was correct, although Russia and Putin himself is responsible for at least some of the consequences.

Troubled areas in Caucasus region - including Dagestan, North Ossetia and Chechnya in Russia, breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia, and Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan.

Troubled areas in Caucasus region - including Dagestan, North Ossetia and Chechnya in Russia, breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia, and Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan.

The Kosovo secession was used by the Russians as much of the justification for the secession of the two provinces (Abkhazia and South Ossetia) from Georgia.

And now, the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh is causing rising nationalist feelings in the southern Caucasus nations -- Turkey, Armenia and Azerbaijan.

These nations are sharply split along the Muslim / Orthodox fault line. Turkey and Azerbaijan are Muslim nations, while Armenia, through the Armenian Apostolic Church, is an Orthodox Christian nation -- like Georgia and Russia.

For all of these nations, World War I and the period 1915-22 was a crisis war. During this time, the Ottoman Empire, led by Turkey, was destroyed, and massive ethnic and religious genocide occurred throughout the entire northern and southern Caucasus.

Although genocide occurred on all sides, Of particular importance today was the 1915 slaughter of hundreds of thousands of Armenians, living with Turkey's borders. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this was unambiguously an act of genocide, though probably no worse than acts of genocide by other ethnic and religious groups in the region.

However, this particular slaughter has been singled out to have particular political significance almost a century later. The West insists that Turkey's actions were genocidal -- and the West is right. Turkey insists that it was an act of war similar to the acts of war by other nations at the time -- and Turkey is right. This was a generational Crisis war, and in generational Crisis wars, genocide is committed by everyone.

From 1988 to 1994, Armenia and Azerbaijan fought a war over the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave of Azerbaijan, which has a large Armenian population. Armenia won the war, and gained control of about 15% of Azerbaijani territory, creating hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijani refugees. Both Azerbaijan and Turkey closed their borders and imposed a blockade, closing off Armenia's trade routes to Europe and Asia.

The southern Caucasus became frozen at that point. None of the three countries has been willing to change the status quo. In particular, the blockade continues.

Several major events are now shaking up the status quo:

The Russia-Georgia was has made all three south Caucausus nations afraid that war will spread to them, for one reason or another.

Russia's recognition of the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia has given rise to the question of whether the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave should similarly be given independence, for very similar reasons. This has increased nationalist feelings on all sides throughout the region.

Russia has imposed some trade sanctions on Turkey for allowing US destroyers to enter the Black Sea to provide humanitarian aid to the Georgians. Turkey has retaliated by imposing some trade sanctions on Russia.

The most momentous event of all will come this Saturday, September 6, when Turkey and Armenia play a championship football (soccer) game in Yerevan, the capital of Armenia.

In recent weeks, anxious Turkish politicians have been proposing to mediate the Russia-Georgia dispute, by introducing the "Caucasian Stability and Cooperation Platform," a Turkish proposal to provide a process for resolving disputes.

The implication is that Turkey will reestablish diplomatic relations with Armenia.

In fact, a change may take place this Saturday, as there is a possibility that Turkish President Abdullah Gül will travel to Yerevan to watch the football (soccer) match sitting alongside Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan.

The possibility of the Turkish President going to Yerevan for any reason is generating a great deal of controversy in Turkey. Leaders in the opposition party are forbidding their members of Parliament from attending.

Other changes may be occurring. Azerbaijanis are very nervous about Gül's planned trip to Yerevan, and some commentators claim that Azerbaijan may be planning war with Armenia.

Protest groups in Yerevan are mobilizing, in case Gül does go to the football game on Saturday. The Armenian Revolutionary Federation will have thousands of demonstrators on hand Saturday, demanding independence for Nagorno-Karabakh.

This closes the circle with Kosovo, which was granted independence from Serbia earlier this year. Serbia is an Orthodox country, Kosovo is Muslim. Azerbaijan is Muslim, while Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh are Orthodox.

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 11-Aug-2008

W. Europe 1 Arab Israeli 3

Russia Caucasus 3 Kashmir 3

China 2 North Korea 2

Financial 3 Swine/Bird flu 3

Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the Caucasus region is quite possibly the most dangerous region of the world, because it's the deepest into a generational Crisis era. Generational Dynamics predicts that the entire region will re-fight the genocidal wars across the Orthodox/Muslim fault line that have occurred so frequently in previous centuries. (3-Sep-2008) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Sep-2008 Consequences of Russia/Georgia conflict spread to southern Caucasus

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Sep-2008
Consequences of Russia/Georgia conflict spread to southern Caucasus