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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 9-Aug-2010
9-Aug-10 News -- N. Korea seizes S. Korean fishing boat

Web Log - August, 2010

9-Aug-10 News -- N. Korea seizes S. Korean fishing boat

Wildfires in Russia are infuriating the public

North Korea seizes S. Korean fishing boat in retaliation for naval exercises

Yellow Sea and Sea of Japan -- called East Sea and West Sea, respectively, by S. Korea

Yellow Sea and Sea of Japan -- called East Sea and West Sea, respectively, by S. Korea

North Korea has seized a 41-ton South Korean fishing boat, the "Daeseung 55." The boat was in the Sea of Japan near the border between North Korea and Russia, and may (or may not) have accidentally entered North Korean territorial waters.

The South Korean maritime authorities had regular contact with the ship until around 5:30 am on Sunday morning, according to the Korea Times. At that point the signal was lost, and it was confirmed via satellite phone call that the boat was being towed by a North Korean patrol boat to a North Korean port.

The seizure appears to be in retaliation for naval exercises being conducted in the Yellow Sea by South Korea, involving 4,500 men and all four branches of the military. The CS Monitor reports that the South Korean vessels conducted nighttime live-fire antisubmarine exercises in the same general area where a South Korean warship, the Cheonan, was sunk on March 26, killing 46. An international forensic team concluded that a North Korean torpedo had sunk the Cheonan. In the exercises, South Korean vessels, supported by warplanes, began firing on targets in the Yellow Sea at sundown and were expected to keep up the exercises for the next six or seven hours.

North Korea had claimed that the drills amounted to an "undisguised military intrusion." CNN quotes North Korea's state-run news agency as saying:

"The army and people of the DPRK [North Korea] are closely watching every move of [South Korean President] Lee Myung-bak's group of traitors. And if the puppet warmongers dare ignite a war, they will mercilessly destroy the provokers and their stronghold by mobilizing most powerful war tactics and offensive means beyond imagination."

In case you don't know, the word "puppet" refers to the claim that the South Koreans are puppets of the United States.

There were seven crew members of the fishing boat, four Koreans and three Chinese. Having the Chinese on board will pose some issues for the North Koreans, because they wouldn't want to keep hostages from their ally. However, the fate of the four South Korean crew members will certainly be in doubt.

Joint U.S. - South Korean naval exercises took place a couple of weeks, and there are plans for several additional rounds of exercises by the end of the year. All of these exercises are in reaction to the sinking of the Cheonan, but the North Koreans and the Chinese are bitterly opposed to them.

The current exercises by the South Koreans alone are taking place in the Yellow Sea, over the objections of the Chinese. Different news stories seem to make different statements as to whether any of the joint US/S.Korean exercises will take place in the Yellow Sea. Some stories indicate that Yellow Sea exercises will take place in September, while other news stories indicate that the U.S. has decided against Yellow Sea exercises to avoid provoking the Chinese.

Wildfires in Russia infuriate the people

The wildfires in Russia continue to burn.

There are 500 fires burning across Russia, about 50 of them on the outskirts of Moscow. Muscovites are warned to stay indoors because of the heavy smog, and if they do go outdoors, they choke on the smog and can't see more than a few feet in front of them.

The fires are having an effect on internal politics. Russians are furious at Moscow for being so poorly prepared for this wildfire epidemic, according to Spiegel.

But it goes beyond just feelings of frustration. In 2007, then-president Vladimir Putin dismantled Russia's forestry service, replacing it with a high-tech system based on satellites. Unfortunately, the new high-tech system is incapable of detecting small files, according to a summary of analyses by Russian experts published by Eurasia Review. One normally doesn't fire firemen during a fire, but things are so bad that BBC reports that President Dmitry Medvedev is sacking top military officers over Russia's fire failures.

We're seeing the same kinds of things in Russia that we've seen in America since the Gulf oil disaster and in Pakistan since the floods -- A population increasingly furious at the incompetence of the government. With all three countries in generational Crisis eras, we can expect the three populations to become more nationalistic and xenophobic, though it remains to be seen how these behavioral changes will manifest themselves.

Additional links

More than 57 young men, mainly in their teens, were in Indian-controlled Kashmir's hospitals in the last week, after they'd been fired upon by security forces. Separatist leaders warn that the Indians are creating a new generation of angry teenage militants dedicated to confrontation with the Indian security forces. Telegraph

The same monsoon rains that are flooding Pakistan are also flooding parts of Indian-controlled Kashmir. Thousands of people have been forced to leave their homes to flee to higher ground, and sleep in open air. al-Jazeera

The Juarez drug cartel appears to be losing ground to the Sinaloa drug cartel in Juarez, Mexico. In desperation, the leaders of the Juarez drug cartel are committing acts with the objective of drawing U.S. government forces into the Juarez conflict, in the belief that the U.S. will attack the Sinaloa cartel. However, the U.S. shows no inclination to get involved in Juarez, and the Mexican government would oppose U.S. intervention. Stratfor

Trade between North and South Korea has fallen 30% since the South cut almost all business relations with the North after an international investigation found Pyongyang torpedoed one of its naval ships in late March, the customs office here said yesterday. JoongAng

Women buy sexier clothes on days when they are most fertile. Toronto Sun

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 9-Aug-10 News -- N. Korea seizes S. Korean fishing boat thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) =eod

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North Korea seizes S. Korean fishing boat in retaliation for naval exercises

Wildfires in Russia infuriate the people

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 9-Aug-2010
9-Aug-10 News -- N. Korea seizes S. Korean fishing boat